1.5-2.0: Capturing Opportunities and Managing Challenges Ali - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pakistan at Global Warming 1.5-2.0: Capturing Opportunities and Managing Challenges

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh LEAD Pakistan 30 November 2018

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Non-overshoot Vs Limited-

• vershoot

 Most critical report in 30 years Granting 12 years for swift actions: 1.5 or 1.6 - No 2.0  The IPCC Special Report on 1.5 opts for a rigorous interpretation of the 1.5 limit on global warming  It has good reasons to do so: "Overshooting" that target risks irreversible impacts and damage for societies and ecosystems, and increases reliance on unproven, high-risk geoengineering technologies

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Food Security, Biodiversity, Ecosystem Health

 Expected reductions in crop yields, particularly in maze, rice, wheat, and potentially other cereal crops will harm food security.  Biodiversity and ecosystems to suffer long-lasting & irreversible changes, including species loss and extinction, more so at higher temperature increases.  Globally 18% of insects, 16% of plants, 8% of vertebrates will lose more than half of their range at global warming levels of 2°C.

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Flood and Extreme Events

1/2 a degree of global warming could expose tens of millions more people worldwide to heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding  2°C will expose about 37% of world population to severe heat waves, 411m more urban population to severe drought and 32-80m people to flooding from sea level rise in 2100  At 1.5°C, heat wave casualties can be reduced to 14%, rise in drought affected population to 350m & flood victims to 31-69m

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Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

Far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure & industrial systems required  Renewables are projected to supply 48-60% of electricity by 2030 and 63–81% by 2050 if warming is limited to 1.5°C.  Steep reductions in the use of coal for electricity, close to 0% to limit global warming levels are predicted.  Similarly, to limit warming 1.5°C, CO2 emissions from industry are projected to be 75–90% lower in 2050 from 2010 levels-clean technologies /production.

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Sustainable Development

Adaptation options specific to national contexts (with enabling conditions), will have benefits for sustainable development and poverty reduction  Adaptation to climate change have robust synergies: health (SDG 3), clean energy (SDG 7), cities and communities (SDG 11), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12) and oceans (SDG 14).  Potential tradeoffs with mitigation for poverty (SDG 1), hunger (SDG 2), water -SDG 6 & energy access -SDG 7  If poorly designed or implemented, adaptation projects can result in trade-offs or maladaptation with adverse impacts for sustainable development

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Urban Areas

 New literature on urban climate change and its differential impacts on and risks for infrastructure sectors —energy, water, transport, buildings— and vulnerable populations  Limited literature on risks of warming - 1.5°C and 2°C.  Indirect risks may arise from interactions between urbanization and natural systems  Future warming and urban expansion could lead to more extreme heat stress.  At 1.5°C, twice as many megacities could become heat- stressed, exposing more than 350m more people to deadly heat by 2050  Without adaptation options, such as reflective roofs, land use, zoning & building codes, at 2°C warming, Karachi and Kolkata could expect annual conditions equivalent to the deadly 2015 heatwaves

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Interacting and Cascading Risks

 Literature on compound, interacting and cascading risks at warming of 1.5°C and 2°C is limited  Exposures approximately double between 1.5°C and 2°C, and land area affected by climate risks increases as warming progresses  Asian and African regions are projected to experience 85– 95% of global exposure with 91–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population, approximately half of which are in South Asia.  Moderate and high multi-sector impacts are prevalent where vulnerable people live, predominantly in South Asia and China, at 1.5°C, but spreading to sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East, and East Asia at higher levels of warming.

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Tipping point Warming of 1.5ºC

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Warming of 1.5ºC- 2°C Warming of up to 3°C Heat-waves, unprecedented heat and human health Substantial increase in occurrence of potentially deadly heat-waves likely More than 350 million more people exposed to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario Substantial increase in potentially deadly heat-waves likely Annual occurrence

• f heat-waves

similar to deadly 2015 heatwaves in India and Pakistan Substantial increase in potentially deadly heat-waves very likely

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CLIMATE RISKS INCREASE FOR PAKISTAN AT 1.5 AND WORSEN AT 2 DEGREES & BEYOND

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Pakistan’s Changing Climate Patterns

Pakistan Meteorological Department:

• Each successive summer since 2010 has been the

hottest recorded

• A shift in the seasons of at least 15 days has been
• bserved
• Over the past 20 years, summer was beginning

earlier and winter later than average with increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves

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Climate Change & Pakistan’s SDGs Challenge

• Vision 2025:

By 2030 per capita income: US$ 8,180

• OECD Projection:

SSP 1: US$ 8,233 SSP 2: US$ 6,526

• If Paris Agreement is not

implemented, SDGs will slip

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The Cost of Disasters is a Threat to SDGs Targets

• WB, MOF, NDMA and SECP estimate Annual Economic

Impact of Flooding between US$ 1.2 and 1.8 b (equivalent to 0.8 % of GDP)

– Big floods will cost 15.5 b (around 7% of GDP / 40% of federal budget)

• WB estimates Rs. 1 / 2 b a day as Environmental Cost

to the Economy

• UNDP, MOCC & LEAD study estimates that the Annual

Cost of Adaptation is from US$ 2-3.8b

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The Cost of Disasters is a Threat

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Evolving Approaches to Adaptation

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Locally specific sectoral approach Mainstreaming adaptation; sectoral approach Adaptation linked to sustainable development; Cross-sectoral and transboundary approaches

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Vision 2025/ Development Strategies Adaptation Strategies Mitigation Strategies Low Carbon Development Climate Resilient Development Co- Benefits Climate Compatible Development