-* zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 2 - - PDF document

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Analytical Support to Peacekeeping Operations in Bosnia Barbara Borniolini 2 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

I” Theater Army Area Coininand

Slide 1: Today’s brief covers the Measures of Effectiveness Program conducted by the HQ SFOR Asscssnlcnl Cell in Sarajevo during the period Nov 96 - Jun 97. Slide 2: I’ll quickly discuss both the purpose of our program and the methodology---how we do what we do. Then I’ll describe the different Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) that we examine and sliow results froin a selccted number of these MOEs. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

I n

niy concluding slides, zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

1’11 tie together results froin tlie various Measures to draw sonie

general trends. Slide 3: The purpose of our prograin is to provide input to tlie staff on how the situation in Bosnia is changing. What we are perhaps doing a little differently than other sections, is trying to t‘ake qualitative data and turn it into quantitative information. The larger objective is to determine trends in various areas--the MOEs--and froin tliosc trends draw conclusions about what is happening in this country- where there is progress and where progress is

• lacking. This slide shows the things we hope to provide with this type of analysis. The first, and most

straightfonvard, is to identify problem areas--potential flash point locations or areas where progress is slower than

• desired. This inay also alert us to sources of instability witliin B-H. The other objective is sonietliing that our

program contributes to along with other staff sections. Slide 4: Tlie Measures of Effectiveness program follows a program on “Norniality Indicators” conducted by ll~c ARRC Operations Analysis Branch during IFOR. Tlie differcnce in their program was tliat they exaniincd priinarily “basic level” needs, to determine if life for tlie citizens of Bosnia was improving. Our prograin esainincs issues relevant for the longer tenn stability of the country. We’ve esaniined the ARRC data and colllpi~rcd

• ur

measures with theirs. However, because the normality indicators are different, or were measured diflcrcntly. iii most cases the data is not directly comparable. Slide zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

5 :

This slide depicts our methodology. We obtain reports from both SFOR and tlie International

• Organizations. Inforination froin the reports is entcred into a database in tlic form of individual events wliicli ilrC

categorized into one or more MOEs. The data is then reduced to provide a “snapshot” of the situation in B-H for a given MOE and a given time. Reducing the data on a monthly basis then enablcs us to dcterniine trcnds and monitor changes. Tlie data I’ll be showing you today includes five niontlis wortli of reports, and we are

.ius1 now

beginning to see definitive trends. Slide 6: We currently track 21 MOEs. They are groupcd under tlirce upper level areas: Human Rights/ Military/ Security; Political Stability/ Rule of Law; and Economic/ Social. Tlie MOEs that we have the best datil for--:ind therefore can track in the most quantitative fashion--arc those in tlie Huinan Rights/ Military/ Security group. Here, tlie events are easily identifiable and we liavc well dcfincd scoring critcria for the “goodncss” or “badncss” of an event. In contrast, tlic MOEs under Economic/Social, particularly tlic Inrrastnicture relatcd MOEs sucli ;IS Electricity, Health Care, Education, and Employment, are the niost difficult to track and analyze in tcrins of trciids. One reason is that changes in these areas are gcnerally slow. It is the middlc group of MOEs tliat is wortli soine

• attention. The MOEs rclated to Institution Building arc very important for the rcgeneralion and long tcrni stubilily
• f this country. However, progress in thesc areas is very difficult to quantify and slow.

Slide 7: This slide shows that our data conies from a variety of sources in a variety of forniats. Tlierc is sonic

• verlap between the sources wliicli helps us validate our inputs. Tlic otlicr point on this slide is that sonic or our

sources have requested anonyinity, and we respect t hat. Slide 8: To turn qualitative data into quantitative inforination. when wc put an cvenl into the dalabasc. wc scorc it using a special “Bosnian” traffic light system. We attcinpt to define scoring for each MOE as precisely zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

as possiblc,

so that the score an event receives is not dcpendent on the analyst who inputs tlic data. As 1 nieiitioiicd bcforc. this is easier for some MOEs than for others. Here arc the scoring criteria for Frccdoin of Moveinent. Slide 9: Tlie map sliow incidents reported in Mar and Apr. O w recognizes first of all, that niany olllic iiicidcrits are clustered in certain areas. We now look at llic change i n this data over a sevcii niontli pcriod. Wc cannot

directly explain wliy the limber of incidents was lower zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

in the iiioiitli of Decciiiber. The trend froiii January oil is

very positive-the number of incidents lias decreased by about 1/2. Tlie lines on the graph are tlie nioviiig avcragc for every two months, i.e., tlie first point is the average of December aiid January. By tracking the moving avcrage, we can smooth out tlie pe,aks and dips from iiiontli to ~nonth, and better track the long teriii trend. Slide 10: Each MND monitors a niiniinuni of zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

5 checkpoints. twice a iiiontli for 1/2 liour per tiiiie (moiiitorcd oii the

same tiiiie of day and same day of the week). There is no great cliaiige in the amount of traffic across tlic Inter- Entity Boundary Line (IEBL). It will be interesting to track the clianges in coiniiiercial traffic across llic IEBL. Slide 1 I: This slide sliows the scoring criteria for Etlinic Incidents. Slide 12: Here we sliow the etlinic incidents in a similar fashion as we displayed the FOM data--incidents ovcr tlie last two inontlis are shown on tlie map and the chart shows tlie trend for five iiioiitlis of data. We sce a similar trend as was observed for FOM Incidents. Looking at tlie two niontli moving average seems to indicatc llic nuiiibcr

• f incidents is perhaps stabilizing at a lower level than earlier in the year. You also see from the map Ilia1 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

IhJs

problem is uniformly distributed across tlie country--there aren’t any particular probleiii areas. Slide 13: This is how we score events related to Police Behavior. Slide 14: Here we sliow the police beliavior incidents over tlie past two months. Oiic trend we’ve identified is that the incidents tend to be less serious tliaii in earlier months. You can’t see that on this map, because it only slro\vs the latest two months, but there are iiiaiiy more blue and yellow incidents, and less red ones tlian io tlie past. When we look at tlie total number of “bad” incidents over the last five months, we see the familiar trend froiii llic two previous MOEs. The nuniber of incidents lias declined fairly steadily since Jan, with a few exceptions. Again,

• ur two niontli iiioving average indicates an overall decline in the number of incidents with h i e . Of coursc. this is

not to minimize the fact that such incidenls should not be occurring at all. and police beliavior is still 21 scrious problem in B-H. Slide 15: This map reflects the size of tlie weapons coifiscations since November. From mid-Noveiiibcr lo illid- January, Operation Meteor swept police stations tlirougliout B-H to recover excess weapons and tliosc \VCiipOIiS 111;11 were not considered to be typical police weapons, siicli as rockets and anti-aircraft guns. Tlie scores arc wciglitcd heavier for larger weapons: Pistol=

1, Riflc=S, Heavy weapons/lieavy ammunilion=

10

The smaller dots along the IEBL will typically represent 1-2 pistols or rifles recovercd from the typc of iiicidciils shown in the previous slides. Large sciziircs skew rcsiilts for trend analysis zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

... but it’s belter to scrcw iip llic diiki

and collect the weapons. Slide 16: As I said earlier, Institution Building is an area of estreinc iiiiportaiice for the long leriii SIiibrllIY of B-H, but is also very difficult to quantify and measure progress. Nevertheless. we’ve entered events into tlic diit>Ib;isc and scored tliein based 011 the rough criteria sliowii on tliis slide. Our qualitative assessiiieiit is that IIiiiIiy executive, legislative, and Judicial bodies have been foriiicd. but tlicy are not working eflectivcly. This is of comc not surprising, given the power sliaring arrangeiiient that csists in tliis country and the lack of trust or oulriglil liostility between members of opposing etlinic groups. Slide 17: We are encouraged that our MOEs are begiiiniiig to sliow trends, aiid even inore encouraged Ilia1 lliosc trends are in a positive direction. Freedoiii of Moveinent Incidcnts, Police Behavior, and Etliiiic lncidcnts. \vliilc still problems in tliis country, appear to be at least decreasing in frcquency, and also perhaps decrcasiiig i n their

• severity. As I’ve already stressed. Institution building is key to establisliing

a functioning. stable govcriiiiiciil

• structure. This doesn’t appear to be liapperiing to the degrce iiccessary,

although inorc data is iiecdcd on Iliis ;ircii

to draw firm conclusions. Reconstniction, io particular provision of housing, is also a kcy to long teriii slabilily. Tliis is happening with the aid of tlie Interiiatioiial Organizations, but it is a slow proccss. Mines, of coursc reiliain a long tern1 problem. Balance of power between tlic forccs is also an issue that iiiust be nioiiilorcd. Slide 18: So, in conclusion, we do see positive trends; in particular on issues that liavc been high on llic International Community’s agenda, such as Frcedoiii of Movement. Police Behavior. aiid Displaccs Pcrsoiis iIiId Refugee and Etlinic Incidents. And, as always, we slrcss tliat witli time our program will kecp gettiiig bcrtcr and bctter as we collect more data and the trends becoiiic iiiorc casily idcntifiablc.

....

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Agenda zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• PurposelMethodology
• Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)

< ( Freedom of Movement

KX-IEBL Traffic ({Ethnic Incidents <<Police Behavior

• Conclusions zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

10 JUN 97

ASSESSMENT CELL

1

Program Purpose

Identify areas of concern, potential instabilities and possible trouble

spots in B-H.

Provide input for decisions on timing and appropriate force levels for different phases of OPLAN 31406. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

Background

,1996--ARRC OAB Normality Indicators measured basic needs

( ( Availability of staples zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

a Stability of prices

( ( Occupancy levels

Soldier-collected data Ranked towns to indicate recove Showed first year’s progres 1997-SFOR Assessment Cell MOEs measure security and political stability

(( Police Behavior

Data from International Organizations zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

8 SFOR

Focus is on problem areas and long term trends Progress is indicated, but it is slow

10 JUN zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 97

I

2

. .. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

10 JUN 97 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

Methodology

Measures zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• f Effectiveness

POLITICAL HUMAN RIGHTS STAB1 LlTYl SECURITYIMILITARY RULE zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

OF

LAW ECONOMlClSOClAL

3

Sources

MEANS

People hindered, beaten or detained A SCORE OF: Red

NO movement

Checkpoints in use; same tollslfines Yellow

NO beatings or incarceration No formal restrictions:

Authorities Blue recommend not crossing IEBL; harassment by citizens G~~~ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Local authorities supportive Movement without incidents

Data zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Input

No Moveman Checkpoints Harassment Supportive

Report Areas covered

Freedom of Movement Scoring zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

a .

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. e zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

10 JUN 97

No Movement Checkpoints Harassment Supponive zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

Cross-IEBL Traffic

5

• ... zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

MEANS

Death, disappearance

• r injury: house

A SCORE zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

OF:

Red bombed or burned: threat t

• kill

l n l w Damage to house

• r property. Pattern
• f harassment Explosion
• r fire

without injuries. Harassment

• r minor conflict between

members

• f different

ethnic groups. DPREs assisted in returns by zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

local

graveside visits proceed zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

wlo incident

Damage Harassment Green community. Good cooperation; Assisted

• n,.

Ethnic Incidents Scoring

t ,.

10 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

JUN

97

6

.

.(

• zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

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Police Behavior Scoring zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

MEANS

A SCOR OF: zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

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Red I

• Beatings. unlawful

evictions Beatings

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I

I Detained (no harm), illegal saarch, Intimidation intlmldation

I

Fines, confiscated property. illegal Fines checkpoints, failure to perform duty

I

I Behavior in accordance with Western Standards

. .. ..... .

Institution Building

Summary

F E B S ~ ~ ~ 9 7 APRW MAYW zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

0 0 Freedom of Movement

Cross IEBL Traffic Police Behaviour Ethnic Incidents zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

m

• Balance of Power
• Confiscation of Police Weapons
• -
• Institution Building

Conclusions

• Things seem to be getting
• More definitive trends will be

better - slowly, slowly apparent in the coming months

10 JUN 97

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