World Oil Supply: Shaping Realities A talk for the Society of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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World Oil Supply: Shaping Realities A talk for the Society of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 30, 2022 193 likes •417 views

World Oil Supply: Shaping Realities A talk for the Society of Petroleum Engineers by Daniel Gerber and Edgar Jones Petro-Logistics S.A. Saudi Arabia and OPEC Call on Production Non-OPEC Production + Call-on-OPEC = Demand Call on OPEC

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SLIDE 1

World Oil Supply: Shaping Realities

Petro-Logistics S.A.

A talk for the Society of Petroleum Engineers by Daniel Gerber and Edgar Jones

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SLIDE 2

Saudi Arabia and OPEC

Call on Production

Non-OPEC Production + Call-on-OPEC = Demand

  • 2.0
  • 1.5
  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

million b/d

Obsrvd Chg. In Commerical Stocks(OECD+China+Saudi) Saudi Production Minus Saudi Call (3-mo. rolling avg)

Saudi Surplus/Deficit Versus Observed Stock Change

CIBC Commodities Strategy, IEA, Petro-Logistics SA, gov'nt sources

SPR Release 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

million b/d million b/d

Call on OPEC (left) Call on Saudi (right)

Call on OPEC & Call on Saudi Part Ways, At Times

CIBC Commodities Strategy, IEA, Petro-Logistics SA, govn't sources

Weak oil demand

  • ffset by outages in

Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela Saudi Call reacts to ebb and flow of Iran/Libya supply

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 3

Supply Outages – Highest in Recent History

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13

kbd

OPEC Total Non-OPEC Total

Unplanned Oil Supply Outages Highest in Recent History

CIBC Commodities Strategy, EIA, Petro-Logistics SA

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 4

Iran Overview

  • Recent US Sanctions – Cutting Iran out of Banking

System

  • EU Sanctions – Prohibit the Import, Financing and

Transportation of Iranian Oil

  • Impact of Sanctions on Exports
  • Suspension of Certain Sanctions

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 5

Iranian Deliveries to Europe & Turkey

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 ‘000 b/d 2012 2011 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2012)

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 6

Iranian Deliveries to South Korea

50 100 150 200 250 300 ‘000 b/d 2012 2011 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2012)

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 7

Japanese Liftings of Iranian Crude Oil

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 ‘000 b/d 2012 2011 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2012)

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 8

Indian Liftings of Iranian Crude Oil

100 200 300 400 500 600 ‘000 b/d 2012 2011 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2012)

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 9

Chinese Liftings of Iranian Crude Oil

100 200 300 400 500 600 ‘000 b/d 2012 2011

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 10

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 11

Petro-Logistics SA

Iran – Crude Oil Exports by Grade

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Bahregan Nowruz Soroosh Lavan Blend Sirri Faroozan Iranian Heavy Iranian Light

000 b/d

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 12

Iran – Crude Oil Production Capacity

3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mb/d

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 13

Libya – Crude Oil Production

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 million b/d

Forecast Actuals

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 14

Iraqi – Crude Oil Production

Petro-Logistics S.A. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 million b/d Southern Exports Northern Exports

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SLIDE 15

Factors Influencing Saudi Arabian Production in 2014

Upward Pressure

  • Breaking down of

negotiations with Iran

  • Continued blockades in

Libya

  • Spill-over from extremist

groups in Iraq

  • Further supply disruptions

in Nigeria

  • Non-OPEC Supply Outages

Downward Pressure

  • Iraqi export & storage

infrastructure completion

  • Long-term agreements with

militias in Libya

  • Weakening of global oil

demand growth

  • Recovery in Nigeria
  • Slim but possible chance of

Iranian crude returning to the market

Petro-Logistics SA

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SLIDE 16

Call on Saudi Arabia in 2014

Petro-Logistics S.A.

7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

million b/d million b/d

Call on OPEC (left) Call on Saudi (right)

Call on OPEC & Call on Saudi

CIBC Commodities Strategy, IEA, Petro-Logistics SA, govn't sources

Weak oil demand

  • ffset by outages in

Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela Saudi Call reacts to ebb and flow of Iran/Libya supply

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SLIDE 17

US UNCONVENTIONAL BROUGHT A NEW PARADIGM TO THE MARKET.....

2014-02-03 17 Source: EIA DOE

Bakken EF

  • The unconventional oil production boom in the US change the domestic dynamics
  • It also had a major impact on the Atlantic basin light crude markets
  • Affected primarily the West African grades going to the US, around 400 MBD

reduction

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SLIDE 18

2014-02-03 18 Classification: Source EIA DOE

WESTERN CANADIAN PRODUCTION HAS CHANGED MIDCONTINTENT DYNAMICS AND WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE PACIFIC AND US GOM TRADE.....

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SLIDE 19

2014-02-03 19 Classification: Internal

HEAVY OIL IS AN EXAMPLE OF HOW DYNAMICS ARE CHANGING

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SLIDE 20

2014-02-03 20 Classification: Internal

ASIA IS HAS BECOME THE NEW GRAVITY CENTRE...

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 USA Asia Other ‘000 b/d

Saudi Arabia Mexico Brazil West Africa Iran Venezuela Neutral Zone Canada Colombia

Main Heavy Crude Oil Markets Top Tier 2012 Imports

Source: Oil tanker data, DOE and Government agencies

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SLIDE 21

Petro-Logistics S.A.

Thank you

Sources: Petro-Logistics SA CIBC Commodities Strategy OPEC Secretariat International Energy Agency