WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Report of the Secretary-General - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session

WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Report of the Secretary-General E/CN.9/2011/6

CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session

Children per woman, 1950 – 2010

2.6 4.9 2.8 1.6 5.9 2.5 6.6 4.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1950- 1955 1955- 1960 1960- 1965 1965- 1970 1970- 1975 1975- 1980 1980- 1985 1985- 1990 1990- 1995 1995- 2000 2000- 2005 2005- 2010 Children per woman Developed countries Least developed countries World Developing countries

CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session

Life expectancy at birth, 1950 – 2010

68 47 77 66 42 56 36 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

1950- 1955 1955- 1960 1960- 1965 1965- 1970 1970- 1975 1975- 1980 1980- 1985 1985- 1990 1990- 1995 1995- 2000 2000- 2005 2005- 2010 Life expectancy at birth (years) . Worl d Least developed countries Developed countries Developing countries

CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session

Scenarios of future population change – A long view

• Scenarios to reveal long term impact of

current setting and assumed future demographic changes

• Six scenarios are discussed:

– Low – Medium – High – Instant replacement – No-change

CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session

Constant scenario

3,153 325 19 0.5 0.1 3 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Europe Oceania Billions

CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session

Instant replacement scenario

2 4 6 8 10 12

1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Population (billions) Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania

CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session

Low, medium, high scenarios

1.6 6.9 8.3 29.6 11.5 5 10 15 20 25 30

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300 Population (Billions) Low Medium High Instant Replacement

CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session

Website of the Population Division: www.unpopulation.org

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