WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Report of the Secretary-General E/CN.9/2011/6 CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session
Children per woman, 1950 – 2010 8 7 6.6 Least developed countries 6 5.9 Developing countries 4.9 Children per woman 5 4.4 CPD 2 0 1 1 World 4 4 th Session 4 3 2.6 2.8 2.5 2 Developed countries 1.6 1 0 1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Life expectancy at birth, 1950 – 2010 80 77 Developed countries 75 70 68 66 Life expectancy at birth (years) . 65 60 CPD 2 0 1 1 56 4 4 th Session Developing countries 55 Worl d 50 47 Least developed countries 45 42 40 36 35 30 1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Scenarios of future population change – A long view • Scenarios to reveal long term impact of current setting and assumed future demographic changes • Six scenarios are discussed: CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session – Low – Medium – High – Instant replacement – No-change
Constant scenario 3,500 3,153 3,000 2,500 CPD 2 0 1 1 2,000 4 4 th Session Billions 1,500 1,000 500 325 19 0.5 0.1 3 0 Africa Asia Latin America Northern America Europe Oceania and the Caribbean
Instant replacement scenario 12 10 8 Population (billions) CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session 6 4 2 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
Low, medium, high scenarios 29.6 30 25 20 Population (Billions) CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session 15 11.5 10 8.3 6.9 5 1.6 0 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300 Low Medium High Instant Replacement
Thank you! Website of the Population Division: CPD 2 0 1 1 4 4 th Session www.unpopulation.org
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