Working Group Meeting #1 Background Material Bronwen Smith - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CONSERVATION POTENTIAL REVIEW Working Group Meeting #1 – Background Material

Bronwen Smith January 21, 2015

Purpose:

• provide WG with an overview of the background work/research

IESO staff have done related to the next conservation potential review Outline:

• Previous study – lessons learned
• Research review / jurisdictional scan
• Scoping workshop results
• Work that will inform the study (product standards, new and

emerging techs, BMG study)

2

Purpose and Outline

• Review of previous achievable conservation potential

studies

• Research review - jurisdictional scan and best practices
• Engage key stakeholders

– Scoping Workshop

• Draft project guideline document

– project overview and scope – governance structure – project work plan

3

Work to date

ICF 2005

• Predominantly based on savings achieved in other jurisdictions
• Disaggregated into sectors  end-uses  measures

– Using data from other jurisdictions, other sources MKJA 2006

• Similar approach as 2014 Marbek study
• MKJA used end-use level model
• Took national study on gas + electricity  broke out for ON and just electricity
• Lower AP considers only information measures

ICF Marbek Study 2014

• Used EUF – developed modified TP, EP
• Two AP scenarios based on one and two year payback
• Some market characterization focused on six clusters

4

Previous studies

• What we heard about the last study …
• Clarify objectives
• Coordinate timing with other planning processes (load

forecasting, LTEP, etc.)

• Make outputs of study more user friendly (tools and insights vs.

raw data)

• Improve regional/local resolution
• Improve codes and standards forecast
• Update residential and commercial end-use data
• Update data and assumptions between study years
• Update reference forecast (improves quality)

5

Previous study – lessons learned

• Objectives:

– Shifting primary objectives from long range planning to goal setting and program planning

• Methodology:

– Shift from the traditional TP-EP-AP approach to program focused bottom-up approach

• Timeframe:

– Shift from long-term (20 year) to shorter-term (5-10 year)

• Outputs:
• Focus on more dynamic and usable results with insights to support

program design

• Use of scenarios to determine the impact of inputs (e.g., budget levels)

6

Jurisdictional scan – trends

• Defined Objectives and Audience
• Consistent Use of Data (inputs and baseline)
• Primary Research (end-use surveys)
• Flexibility (scenarios)
• Transparency (inputs)
• Usability (outputs)

7

Research review - best practices

• Workshop objectives

– develop a better understanding of key stakeholders’ needs for the Study – identify and discuss potential tactics, opportunities and constraints related to the identified needs and priorities

• Themes

– Need greater confidence and trust in results – Increase integration and coordination of related activities – Buy-in from stakeholders at all levels is vital

8

Scoping workshop

Stakeholder Needs

• Regional/Local Resolution [Votes: 20]
• Short-Term Program Planning [Votes: 18]
• Inform Targets and Budgets [Votes: 16]
• Long-Term Planning [Votes: 11]
• Cost and Program Effectiveness [Votes: 8]
• Consistency of Assumptions [Votes: 3]

9

Scoping workshop - results

10

Project structure

Conservation Potential Review Activity #1 Activity #2 Activity #3 Activity #4 Activity .. Short term (2015- 2020) Long term (2015- 2034) Mid term review Long Term Energy Plan Determined based on needs and priorities identified Program Design Program Design

• Product standards analysis
• ACEEE new and emerging technologies review
• BMG analysis
• NRCan market characterization

11

Update on activities that will inform study

12

Questions

Discussion Question #1: Needs

13

• Are there any key needs that were not captured?
• What are the priority needs to be addressed?
• How can we best manage competing needs and
• bjectives?

 Regional/Local Resolution  Short-Term Program Planning  Inform Targets and Budgets  Long-Term Planning

14

Discussion Question #2: Activities

 Review of historical program experience analysis  Updated codes and standards forecast  New and emerging technology review  End-use survey (commercial sector)  Market characterization  Behind the meter generation AP study  Cost curves  Scenario modeling  Local / regional allocation

• Are any activities missing?
• What activities should be prioritized?