Bhramar Mukherjee, PhD Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology University of Michigan School of Public Health bhramar@umich.edu SAMSI-SAVI Workshop, Mumbai, 2016 Working Group # 6
Working Group # 6 Working Group 6: Epigenomics Elena Colicino - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Working Group # 6 Working Group 6: Epigenomics Elena Colicino - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Bhramar Mukherjee, PhD Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology University of Michigan School of Public Health bhramar@umich.edu SAMSI-SAVI Workshop, Mumbai, 2016 Working Group # 6 Working Group 6: Epigenomics Elena Colicino Sudha
Elena Colicino Sudha Ramalingam Working Group 6: Epigenomics Bhramar Mukherjee
The Patriotic Peacocks
Bhramar Tanujit Rajani Prakash Mohan Dimple Sharayu
What is interaction? Why measure it?
- biology, sub-group identification, improving power
How to measure it?
- Choice of scale, method of analysis, coding
When to report it?
- public health relevance, biological significance, statistical
significance
Introduction
Interactions
“Interaction as statisticians think of it is a Weasel parameter.” –Professor David Clayton, JSM 2012 Weasel Word: “an informal term for words and phrases aimed at creating an impression that a specific and/or meaningful statement has been made, when only a vague or ambiguous claim has been communicated, enabling the specific meaning to be denied if the statement is challenged” (wikipedia)
Statistical Interaction
Very few replicable interactions reported in human observational studies!
Me, 1978 Me, 2016 Gene x Environment x Time
Lead exposure among children in India: determinants, neurobehavioral effects and genetic susceptibility
Working Group 6: Data Example
Environmental Health Perspective, 2011
Dataset
Neurotoxicology, 2013
Dataset
World blood lead levels among children
Burden of disease, 2010
Lead levels and lead in gasoline
USA, NHANES II ( Annest et al. 1983)
Sources of lead exposure
Leaded gasoline phased later than in US Leaded paint Occupational:
- Garage workers
- Smelting and metal working operations
- Jewelery workers
- Industrial activity
- Mining
Cultural practices
- Ayurvedic medication
- Cosmetics (surma, sindhur)
- Holi colors
- Spices
Cosmetics Religious powders Ayurvedic medication
Lead in paint (2009)
Clark, C.S. et al, Lead levels in new enamel household paints from Asia, Africa and South America. Environ. Res. (2009), doi:10.1016/j.envres.2009.07.002.
Lead Paint
New York Times 2007 NDTV 2010
Electronic waste
10-20,000 tonnes, employing
25,000 people, in New Delhi alone
E waste management and
handling Rule 2011 ( new law MOEF, India)
Needs implementation
Toxics link 2010
Determinants of blood lead levels among 3-7 year old children in Chennai, India (2005-2006)
India Lead Study (Chennai) Study population (N= 756)
- Cross-sectional
- 12 schools (3 in 4 zones)
- 3-7 year old children
High industry Low Industry High traffic HT/HI (3 schools) HT/LI (3 schools) Low traffic LT/HI (3 schools) LT/LI (3 schools)
Chennai
- Blood lead levels assessed by
- LeadCare™ Analyzer
1 . 5 4 . 5 7 . 5 1 0 . 5 1 3 . 5 1 6 . 5 1 9 . 5 2 2 . 5 2 5 . 5 2 8 . 5 3 1 . 5 3 4 . 5 3 7 . 5 4 0 . 5 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 P e r c e n t BL L
Distribution of blood lead levels (g/dl) in children in Chennai
N=756 Mean=11.5 g/dl Range=2.6-40.5 g/dl
55% > 10 µg/dl 2% > 10 µg/dl (NHANES III)
Assessment of Predictors
Questionnaires (primary care givers : Tamil)
- Socioeconomic status
- Family income, parental education, occupation
- Type of house
- Possible sources of exposure
- Residence (traffic and industry zone), parental occupation, presence of
lead based industry, traffic level near house
- Type of paint
- Sources and storage of drinking water
- Surma and ayurvedic medication use
Predictors of blood lead
Variables Estimate 95% CI Partial R2 ** Age (months) 0.002
- 0.001 0.005
0.003 Sex
- 0.028
- 0.094 0.039
0.001 Average monthly family income (Rs)*** <2000 0.259 0.125 0.394 0.028 2000-4000 0.233 0.123 0.342 0.033 4000-6500 0.182 0.081 0.282 0.017 Drinking water storage vessel*** Brass/ Bronze 0.210 0.061 0.359 0.010 Residence *** High industry 0.074
- 0.082 0.231
0.007 * accounting for clustering at school level using generalized estimating equations ** unadjusted for clustering using linear regression *** compared to >6500 Rs/ month, ** all other drinking water storage vessels, ***low industry area
Total model R2= 5.8%
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 <2000 2000-4000 4000-6500 >6500 Brass/Bronze Other Income (Rs) DWV Odds ratio
(>10µg/dl)
DWV: Type of vessel used for storage of drinking water. Adjusted for age (months), sex p-values<0.05
Conclusions
- Blood lead levels
- Lower socioeconomic status
- Drinking water stored in brass or bronze vessels
- Residence in a high industry zone (<5 year old)
- No effect of use of ayurvedic medication,
surma, traffic, paint
- Little variation in blood lead was explained
- Need in depth exposure assessment
Predictors of blood lead
Lead exposure and behavior, IQ, Visual Motor skills children in Chennai, India
Lanphear et al. 2005
Lead and IQ
- IQ is best characterized
- (Needleman 1979,
Bellinger 1983)
- No threshold
- Non-linear dose-response
- (Schwartz 1994)
Heated debate!!
Lanphear et al 2005
Behavioral and cognitive assessment
Behavior: Questionnaires administered to the class teachers
Connors ADHD DSM IV Scales (CADS)
- ADHD Index
- DSM IV: Hyperactivity
- DSM IV: Inattention
Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF)
- Executive function composite
- Behavioral regulation (inhibit, shift, emotional control)
- Metacognition (Initiate, working memory, planning, organization of materials,
monitoring)
Connors Teacher Rating Scales (CTRS-39)
- Anxiety, Sociability, (Aggression, Hyperactivity, Inattention)
Behavioral and cognitive assessment (con’t)
Intelligence
- Binet - Kamat Intelligence scales ( Tamil)
- mental age/ chronological age= IQ
- administered to children
Genotyping
- Bioserve Hyderabad, India
- Mass Array Iplex (Sequenom process)
- PCR and mass spectrometry
- Blood
- Negative and positive controls
- 24 DNA samples from the Coriell Discovery panel
Effect of lead and hemoglobin (Hb) on IQ
Generalized estimating equations*
Roy et al pending publication
Lead and Visual motor skills
Pallaniapan & Roy et al 2011
Conclusions
Lead and behavior
- Blood lead levels are associated with poorer
behavior and visual-motor skills
- ADHD, internalizing behaviors and executive function
- Executive function is most sensitive to lead (0.4 SD)
- 4 IQ points (0.25 SD IQ)
- In ADHD, inattention is most affected
- No effect seen on hyperactivity
- Dose-response relationships are linear for behavior
- Blood lead levels are associated with poorer
Lead exposure, iron and intelligence: genetic susceptibility
Lead and IQ
Wide variation in effect estimates
- Residual confounding
- Measurement error
- Different dose ranges
- Effect modification
- Nutritional differences
- Genetic differences
Lanphear et al. 2005
Effect modification by Transferrin C2 polymorphsim
Effect modification by Transferrin C2 polymorphsim
Roy et al Pending publication
Distribution of DRD2 Taq IA genotype
Effect of lead and Hb on IQ by DRD2 genotype
Roy et al 2011
Hemoglobin, Lead & IQ: genetic susceptibility
- *
* * *
IQ IQ
Data consists of 159 variables, including genotype data on 18 genetic
polymorphisms
We will try to reproduce the published analysis with one marker at a time:
- Choice of confounders
- Transformation of Y and X
- Dose response relationship
- Interpreting interaction on the transformed scale
- Reporting of findings
- How robust are the conclusions
- Extend to incorporate multiple markers, calculate a polygenic risk
score.
- Unexplored Associations (birth order related to IQ?)
Plan for Analysis Working Group
Determinants Blood lead Behavior
ADHD Executive function Internalizing behavior
Cognition
IQ
Dopamine D2 receptor polymorphism
Iron
Hemoglobin SES Industrial activity Brass and bronze vessels
OVERARCHING PARADIGM
Transferrin C2 polymorphism
Research Team Kalpana Balakrishnan Kavitha Palaniapan Padmavathi Ramaswamy Venkatesh S.M. Shankar K.M. BIOSERVE Rama Modali
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
David C. Bellinger Joel Schwartz Robert Wright Ananya Roy
HSPH SRMC
Funding : NIH (R01 ES007821) , Fogarty grant (R03 TW005914)
University of Toronto
Howard Hu
YSPH
Adrienne Ettinger