William L. (Les) Kendrick Ph.D. (Consultant) October 8, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
William L. (Les) Kendrick Ph.D. (Consultant) October 8, 2019 Outline Enrollment Trends An Odd Year (2018 2019) What About Sept 2019 (A little early but we can talk) Demographics Births Population Trends
(Consultant) October 8, 2019
Births Population Trends Housing Trends
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 2
P223 Enrollment (October) Does Not Include Full‐Time Running Start Students
5,876 5,906 6,009 6,132 6,293 6,549 6,730 7,056 7,154 7,250 7,329 7,394 7,364 7,570 7,650 7,805 7,913 8,085 8,354 8,560
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18
4 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Headcount (Excludes Running Start Only Students)
2775 2717 2711 2733 2779 2902 3032 3142 3208 3235 3265 3304 3300 3437 3527 3654 3720 3792 3906 3957 1418 1439 1502 1565 1574 1625 1610 1728 1702 1774 1752 1781 1759 1817 1846 1883 1914 1956 1964 2077 1683 1750 1796 1834 1940 2022 2088 2186 2244 2241 2312 2309 2305 2316 2277 2268 2279 2337 2484 2526
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
K-5 2775 2717 2711 2733 2779 2902 3032 3142 3208 3235 3265 3304 3300 3437 3527 3654 3720 3792 3906 3957 6-8 1418 1439 1502 1565 1574 1625 1610 1728 1702 1774 1752 1781 1759 1817 1846 1883 1914 1956 1964 2077 9-12 1683 1750 1796 1834 1940 2022 2088 2186 2244 2241 2312 2309 2305 2316 2277 2268 2279 2337 2484 2526 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18
5 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
7 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
K‐12 Public School Students Per House (King County Districts) 2010 Enrollment and Census Data
Rounded Rounded Census 2010 Census Estimated Estimated P223 Oct Total 2010 K‐12 Students K‐12 Students
School District
2010 Enroll Housing Units Occupied Units Per 100 Homes Per 100 Occupied
Tahoma 7,394
13,835 13,153 53 56
Snoqualmie Valley 6,019
13,693 12,635 44 48
Auburn 14,343
32,762 30,704 44 47
Kent 26,630
60,010 56,621 44 47
Issaquah 16,881
38,765 36,642 44 46
Federal Way 21,724
50,518 47,551 43 46
Mercer Island 4,177
9,930 9,109 42 46
Enumclaw 4,472
10,516 9,877 43 45
Riverview 3,152
7,470 7,019 42 45
Tukwila 2,908
7,353 6,817 40 43
Northshore 19,390
49,801 46,787 39 41
Highline 18,101
50,913 47,160 36 38
Bellevue 18,008
56,376 50,892 32 35
Lake Washington 24,592
76,389 71,711 32 34
Shoreline 8,808
28,028 26,561 31 33
Vashon Island 1,421
5,552 4,606 26 31
Renton 13,558
48,991 45,526 28 30
Seattle 46,794
308,858 283,793 15 16
Skykomish 49
823 330 6 15
*Note: The number of K-12 students per house is estimated using Census housing counts and the October 2010 P223 enrollment. The number of students per 100 homes
was rounded to the nearest whole number. The number of housing units includes all homes both new and existing, so it is different from the Student Generation Rate which ONLY looks at the number of students from new homes
9 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 10
11 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Annual Net Change in Enrollment by County Since 2012 (Numbers may have changed since the original reporting date)
602 601 415 276 206 47 17 8 7 ‐4 ‐8 ‐9 ‐10 ‐16 ‐37 ‐37 ‐73 ‐197 ‐510 ‐564 ‐691
‐2000 ‐1500 ‐1000 ‐500 500 1000 1500 2000
Charter Schools Northshore Lake Washington Auburn Tahoma Riverview Snoqualmie Valley Bellevue Enumclaw Skykomish Technical College Renton Mercer Island Tukwila Shoreline Vashon Island Issaquah Federal Way Highline Seattle Kent
12 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Source: P223 and P105 Report ‐‐State of Washington Headcount
34,837 35,024 34,490 32,245 33,188 34,275 35,426 36073 36624 36055 35913 36,282 36,452 36,715 36,428 37,395 37,403 36,375 249319 250399 249971 250791 252241 254,628255,246253,766255,087 256,909 258,788 266,260 270,546 275,167 278,587 283,136 286,801286,824 262,319
240000 245000 250000 255000 260000 265000 270000 275000 280000 285000 290000 295000 300000 Oct- 00 Oct- 01 Oct- 02 Oct- 03 Oct- 04 Oct- 05 Oct- 06 Oct- 07 Oct- 08 Oct- 09 Oct- 10 Oct- 11 Oct- 12 Oct- 13 Oct- 14 Oct- 15 Oct- 16 Oct- 17 Oct- 18 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Private Schools Public Schools
13 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Immigrant populations declined for the first time in over a decade in South
King County. But this doesn’t explain what happened throughout the region.
What it’s NOT:
Families did not flee King County for cheaper areas in the Puget Sound any more than they normally do.
Pierce County growth was below normal
Snohomish Growth was in line with expectations
One Year Blip? A Cultural Change? – The Puget Sound is too expensive? A New Normal?
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 14
Source: State of Washington Department of Health Birth Files
22,173 10,016 8,466 24,899 2,973 11,322 9,352 3,034
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
King County Kitsap County Pierce County Snohomish County
16 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Source: Washington State Health Department
22,212 22,007 22,487 21,778 21,863 22,431 22,874 22,680 24,244 24,899 25,190 25,057 24,514 24,630 25,032 24,910 25,343 25,487 26,011 25,273
15000 17000 19000 21000 23000 25000 27000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
17 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Next year’s cohort
(Based on the Average of 2016 and 2017 Fertility Rates and Projected Growth in Females in Their Child‐Bearing Years Using the OFM Medium Range Population Forecast)
24910 25343 25487 26011 25273 25682 25842 26012 25935 25864 25798
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
18 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Actual Birth Cohorts (in
between 2018-2022
Projected cohorts for 2023 to 2028 Enrollment
Projections
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 KC Births (5 Years Prior) Tahoma K Enroll Pct of Cohort
KC Births (5 Years Prior) 21 81 7 21 573 21 646 2221 2 22007 22487 21 778 21 863 22431 22874 22860 24244 24899 251 90 25,057 24,51 4 24630 25032 24,91 Tahoma K Enroll 394 391 41 5 391 442 478 470 471 498 465 504 495 526 545 590 538 553 587 61 7 Pct of Cohort 1 .81 % 1 .81 % 1 .92% 1 .76% 2.01 % 2.1 3% 2.1 6% 2.1 5% 2.22% 2.03% 2.20% 2.04% 2.1 1 % 2.1 6% 2.35% 2.1 9% 2.25% 2.34% 2.48% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8
19 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 20
249252 258,788 286,824 290,287 296,492
50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2000 (P223) 2010 (P223) 2018 (P223) 2020 2025
Using Cohort Survival, Actual Births, Birth Forecasts and Projected Changes in the Age 5‐19 Population from the OFM Medium Range Forecast
Source: Office of Financial Management of the State of Washington Projections for 2020 and 2025 are from the Growth Management Medium Range Projections Released by the State in December 2017
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 King County 11,351 14,400 24,900 35,350 35,550 52,300 48,600 36,500 20,604 24,832 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 Annual Net Change 2018-2020 Annual Net Change 2020-2025
OFM Estimates Projections
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 22
Assumes that the District Grows at About the Same Rate as the City of Maple Valley and Surrounding Areas (Based on Forecast Data from the Puget Sound Regional Council)
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Population 28,404 37,376 40,810 41,341 41,671 42,005 42,341 42,679 43,021 43,365 43,712 44,062 44,414 Census 2000 Census 2010 2018 OFM Estimate 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
23 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
New and Existing Homes in the Tahoma School District
Source: Metro‐Study Assessor’s Data 2005‐2018 The Numbers For a Given Year Are Subject to Change Based on Updates by County Personnel The Trend is More Important than the Specific Numbers for Each Year
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 25
Source: New Home Trends Database and MetroStudy
200 400 600 800
Single Family* 260 207 467 Multi-Family 164 164 Total 260 371 631 For Sale In the Pipeline Total Next Five Years
26 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 27
10,136 13,835 14,719 14,839 15,019 15,203 15,283 15,350 15,400 15,450 15,500 15,550 15,600 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700 0.800 0.900 1.000 Total Housing Units (Single‐Multi‐Family) 10,136 13,835 14,719 14,839 15,019 15,203 15,283 15,350 15,400 15,450 15,500 15,550 15,600 Students Per House 0.586 0.534 0.582 0.588 0.594 0.6 0.606 0.611 0.611 0.611 0.61 0.609 0.608 Census 2000 Census 2010 OFM 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Assumes that the number of students per house rises through 2023 and then declines some between 2024 and 2028 as the graduating classes become larger. 28 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Housing Units 10,136 13,835 14,719 14,839 15,019 15,203 15,283 15,350 15,400 15,450 15,500 15,550 15,600 K-12 Students 5,906 7,394 8,560 8724 8918 9117 9255 9386 9416 9447 9455 9470 9485 Students Per Household 0.583 0.534 0.584 0.588 0.594 0.6 0.606 0.611 0.611 0.611 0.61 0.609 0.608 Census 2000 Census 2010 2018 Estim. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Forecast
Excludes Full‐Time Running Start and Open Doors 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000
Low Growth 7,913 8,085 8,354 8,560 8,562 8,633 8,691 8,758 8,798 8,821 8,775 8,749 8,713 8,710 Medium 7,913 8,085 8,354 8,560 8,743 8,899 9,036 9,178 9,286 9,369 9,372 9,388 9,384 9,410 High Growth 7,913 8,085 8,354 8,560 8,924 9,167 9,389 9,612 9,795 9,946 10,005 10,070 10,105 10,166 Oct_15 Oct_16 Oct_17 Oct_18 Oct_19 Oct_20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct-26 Oct-27 Oct-28
30 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 32
Projection Summary by School
Medium Growth Projections (2019-2023)
Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 CRES 592 573 566 584 588 594 591 GPES 664 671 675 656 650 644 656 LWES 790 800 793 779 781 779 801 RCES 704 704 695 700 708 708 734 SLES 476 497 502 505 521 520 527 TES 680 712 761 779 791 813 805 Totals 3906 3957 3992 4004 4039 4058 4113 MVMS 969 1008 1038 1051 1047 1048 1038 STMS 995 1070 1142 1253 1248 1253 1203 Totals 1964 2078 2181 2303 2295 2301 2241 TSHS 2483 2525 2570 2592 2702 2819 2932 Totals 2483 2525 2570 2592 2702 2819 2932 Totals 8353 8560 8743 8899 9036 9178 9286
Predicting continuing strong growth trends in the near term as
additional housing projects are completed and larger K classes continue to enroll.
Latest data suggests last year’s slow down was a bit of an anomaly, but
than the trends we saw between 2012 and 2017.
Longer term enrollment trends (2024 to 2028) are harder to predict since
we don’t know when additional land will be designated for residential development.
We would generally expect continued growth in the Tahoma School
District over time as long as regional growth trends remain strong. Given the trends in Tahoma and Snoqualmie this September, we may e seeing more migration toward the far eastern portions of King County.
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 33