Wheat Marketing Situation Prepared by: Darrell L. Hanavan - PDF document

Wheat Marketing Situation Prepared by: Darrell L. Hanavan Executive Director Colorado Wheat Administrative Committee If you would like to receive an email when this report is updated, email gmostek@coloradowheat.org to be added to our mailing list. Updated March 16, 2012

WHAT DETERMINES THE PRICE OF WHEAT? $5.70 per bushel (national average price during 2010-11 marketing year) * Total Use (2,417,000,000 bu.) = Domestic Use (1,128,000,000 bu.) + Exports (1.289,000,000 bu.) * Domestic Use = 1,128,000,000 bu. X $5.70 per bu./nat. avg. price = $2.66 per bu. or 47% 2,417,000,000 bu. Food (926,000,000 bu.)* = $2.18 per bu. Feed (132,000,000 bu.) = .31 Seed (71,000,000 bu.) = .17 . $2.66 *Per Capita Consumption of Wheat in 2010 = 134.3 pounds * Exports *= 1,289,000,000 bu. X $5.70 per bu./nat. avg.price = $3.04 per bu. or 53% 2,417,000,000 bu. Top Export Customers* (1,000 Metric Tons) (Million Bushels) (Per Bushel) 1. Egypt 4,021.2 147.8 0.35 2. Nigeria 3,645.3 133.9 0.32 3. Japan 3,273.0 120.3 0.28 4. Mexico 2,601.0 95.6 0.23 5. Philippines 1,806.3 66.4 0.16 6. Korean Republic 1,640.2 60.3 0.14 7. Iraq 1,078.4 39.6 0.09 8. Turkey 928.8 34.1 0.08 9. Peru 922.9 33.9 0.08 10. Taiwan 912.9 33.5 0.08 * In the 2010-11 marketing year, each one million metric ton (36,743,710 bu.) of exports was valued at $.087 per bushel. Page 1

U.S. Average Wheat Prices All Wheat, 2001-2011 (June-May) Season Marketing 12-Month Average Year June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Average Price 2001-02 2.74 2.63 2.74 2.85 2.87 2.87 2.88 2.87 2.83 2.87 2.83 2.81 2.82 2.78 2002-03 2.92 3.21 3.63 4.21 4.38 4.25 4.06 3.89 3.70 3.55 3.37 3.33 3.71 3.56 2003-04 3.08 2.95 3.35 3.39 3.44 3.61 3.68 3.68 3.77 3.83 3.88 3.82 3.54 3.40 2004-05 3.55 3.37 3.27 3.36 3.43 3.46 3.40 3.43 3.36 3.42 3.35 3.31 3.39 3.40 2005-06 3.23 3.20 3.24 3.36 3.43 3.45 3.53 3.52 3.66 3.79 3.81 4.09 3.53 3.42 2006-07 3.98 3.88 3.91 4.06 4.59 4.59 4.52 4.53 4.71 4.75 4.89 4.88 4.44 4.26 2007-08 5.03 5.17 5.64 6.76 7.65 7.39 7.71 7.96 10.10 10.50 10.10 8.87 7.74 6.48 2008-09 7.62 7.15 7.61 7.43 6.65 6.29 5.95 6.20 5.79 5.71 5.75 5.85 6.50 6.78 2009-10 5.72 5.17 4.85 4.48 4.47 4.79 4.87 4.90 4.73 4.70 4.41 4.34 4.79 4.87 2010-11 4.16 4.49 5.44 5.79 5.88 6.10 6.44 6.69 7.42 7.55 8.01 8.16 6.34 5.70 Monthly Average 4.20 4.12 4.37 4.57 4.68 4.68 4.70 4.77 5.01 5.07 5.04 4.95 4.68 4.47 2011-12 7.41 7.10 7.61 7.55 7.29 7.26 7.19 7.04 7.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.28 0.00 Page 2

U.S. Average Wheat Prices Winter Wheat, 2001-2011 (June-May) Season Marketing 12-Month Average Year June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Average Price 2001-02 2.67 2.61 2.71 2.81 2.82 2.82 2.78 2.81 2.75 2.81 2.75 2.73 2.76 2.72 2002-03 2.90 3.19 3.63 4.15 4.32 4.18 3.87 3.66 3.52 3.30 3.19 3.19 3.59 3.41 2003-04 2.94 2.89 3.28 3.31 3.37 3.56 3.62 3.66 3.67 3.76 3.79 3.72 3.46 3.27 2004-05 3.46 3.31 3.19 3.26 3.34 3.39 3.34 3.28 3.27 3.32 3.27 3.23 3.31 3.32 2005-06 3.15 3.15 3.16 3.28 3.34 3.27 3.45 3.45 3.59 3.82 3.74 4.06 3.46 3.32 2006-07 3.95 3.82 3.77 4.03 4.63 4.67 4.53 4.53 4.67 4.67 4.87 4.77 4.41 4.17 2007-08 5.00 5.13 5.66 6.89 7.55 7.31 7.70 7.75 9.17 9.96 9.62 8.17 7.49 6.13 2008-09 7.51 7.10 7.30 6.99 6.03 5.65 5.40 5.70 5.26 5.27 5.26 5.52 6.08 6.57 2009-10 5.47 5.02 4.67 4.20 4.27 4.60 4.68 4.67 4.53 4.45 4.19 4.21 4.58 4.71 2010-11 4.05 4.47 5.47 5.76 5.83 6.02 6.40 6.35 7.03 7.02 7.37 7.80 6.13 5.37 Monthly Average 4.11 4.07 4.28 4.47 4.55 4.55 4.58 4.59 4.75 4.84 4.81 4.74 4.53 4.30 2011-12 7.13 6.64 7.16 7.27 6.54 6.42 6.41 6.57 6.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.74 0.00 Page 3

U.S. Monthly Marketings All Wheat, 2001-2011 (Percent) Marketing Year June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total 2001-02 15.6 19.4 9.8 6.0 6.5 5.3 8.0 9.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.8 100.00 2002-03 16.3 22.0 13.3 10.5 5.7 4.2 5.9 5.4 3.7 4.0 4.0 5.0 100.00 2003-04 8.5 23.4 12.6 7.9 6.6 7.2 7.5 7.9 5.4 6.6 3.2 3.2 100.00 2004-05 10.9 12.4 9.0 11.0 7.0 7.8 8.6 9.7 9.5 7.1 3.4 3.6 100.00 2005-06 11.9 16.8 13.4 11.7 6.3 4.7 8.1 8.4 6.2 5.1 3.4 4.0 100.00 2006-07 16.0 18.5 12.6 6.9 9.1 4.8 6.8 8.2 5.1 4.9 4.2 2.9 100.00 2007-08 12.0 27.1 18.7 9.4 4.5 3.8 5.9 7.8 3.9 3.1 2.0 1.8 100.00 2008-09 11.4 21.8 14.9 7.8 3.8 3.2 6.9 7.4 4.3 6.6 5.3 6.6 100.00 2009-10 10.8 18.3 10.8 9.5 9.7 6.8 6.3 7.7 5.1 5.2 6.1 3.7 100.00 2010-11 10.4 25.6 13.5 9.3 5.4 4.2 6.6 7.8 4.7 5.4 3.9 3.2 100.00 Monthly Average 12.4 20.5 12.9 9.0 6.5 5.2 7.1 8.0 5.3 5.3 4.1 3.9 100.00 Page 4

U.S. Average Wheat Prices 2001-2011 (July-June) Marketing June Average Highest Monthly Price/Bushel 12-Month Year Price/Bu. Average Price/Bu. Gain Month Average 2001-02 2.74 2.88 0.14 December 2.82 2002-03 2.92 4.38 1.46 October 3.71 2003-04 3.08 3.88 0.80 April 3.54 2004-05 3.55 3.55 0.00 June 3.39 2005-06 3.23 4.09 0.86 May 3.53 2006-07 3.98 4.89 0.91 April 4.44 2007-08 5.03 10.50 5.47 March 7.74 2008-09 7.62 7.62 0.00 June 6.50 2009-10 5.72 5.72 0.00 June 4.79 2010-11 4.16 8.16 4.00 May 6.34 10-Year Average 4.20 5.57 1.36 February - June 4.68 Page 5

Colorado Average Wheat Prices All Wheat, 2001-2011 (July-June) Season Marketing 12-Month Average Year July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Average Price 2001-02 2.67 2.58 2.60 2.75 2.73 2.73 2.77 2.75 2.69 2.75 2.67 2.89 2.72 2.72 2002-03 3.23 3.67 4.23 4.46 4.12 3.90 3.81 3.51 3.24 3.22 3.19 3.02 3.63 3.63 2.80 3.14 3.23 3.30 3.50 3.62 3.68 3.61 3.74 3.79 3.69 3.51 3.47 3.32 2003-04 2004-05 3.31 3.06 3.19 3.17 3.36 3.31 3.31 3.25 3.31 3.19 3.12 3.22 3.23 3.25 2005-06 3.06 2.96 3.46 3.42 3.29 3.54 3.48 3.76 3.82 4.10 4.26 4.20 3.61 3.43 2006-07 4.32 4.20 4.28 4.82 4.74 4.51 4.55 4.46 4.61 4.63 4.63 5.13 4.57 4.54 2007-08 5.00 5.56 6.63 6.91 6.57 7.25 7.39 8.82 8.79 8.06 7.38 7.63 7.17 6.01 7.31 7.50 6.64 5.88 6.51 6.27 5.98 6.49 5.94 5.72 6.02 5.49 6.31 6.62 2008-09 2009-10 5.38 4.64 4.20 4.15 4.59 4.47 4.57 4.29 4.37 4.05 3.98 3.75 4.37 4.57 2010-11 4.34 5.44 5.67 5.83 5.83 6.18 6.33 6.88 6.91 7.71 7.96 7.80 6.41 5.42 Monthly Average 4.14 4.28 4.41 4.47 4.52 4.58 4.59 4.78 4.74 4.72 4.69 4.66 4.55 4.35 2011-12 6.64 7.17 6.84 5.83 6.18 6.34 6.48 6.34 6.48 0.00 Page 6

Colorado Average Wheat Prices Winter Wheat, 2001-2011 (July-June) Marketing 12-Month Year July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Average 2001-02 2.67 2.58 2.63 2.75 2.72 2.73 2.78 2.75 2.69 2.75 2.67 2.89 2.72 2002-03 3.23 3.68 4.23 4.47 4.12 3.90 3.81 3.51 3.25 3.22 3.19 3.02 3.64 2003-04 2.80 3.14 3.21 3.29 3.50 3.62 3.68 3.61 3.74 3.79 3.69 3.51 3.47 2004-05 3.31 3.06 3.19 3.17 3.36 3.32 3.31 3.25 3.31 3.19 3.12 3.22 3.23 2005-06 3.06 2.96 3.46 3.42 3.29 3.54 3.48 3.76 3.84 4.07 4.25 4.20 3.61 2006-07 4.32 4.20 4.28 4.82 4.74 4.51 4.55 4.46 4.61 4.63 4.63 5.13 4.57 2007-08 5.00 5.56 6.63 6.91 6.57 7.25 7.29 8.74 8.77 8.06 7.37 7.62 7.15 2008-09 7.30 7.50 6.82 5.84 5.68 5.76 5.94 5.45 5.53 5.43 5.82 5.50 6.05 2009-10 5.38 4.64 4.19 4.15 4.60 4.48 4.57 4.29 4.37 4.05 3.98 3.74 4.37 2010-11 4.34 5.46 5.69 5.84 5.83 6.18 6.32 6.92 6.91 7.71 7.96 7.80 6.41 Monthly Average 4.14 4.28 4.43 4.47 4.44 4.53 4.57 4.67 4.70 4.69 4.67 4.66 4.52 2011-12 6.64 7.16 7.27 5.84 6.18 6.34 6.48 6.34 6.53 Page 7

Season Average Price 2.72 3.63 3.32 3.25 3.43 4.54 5.99 6.47 4.58 5.40 4.33 0.00 Page 7