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Slide 1
Brussels, 03 April 2014
- Prof. Dr Samuele Furfari
ULB
1/2/1979
What Role for the Middle East In the New Geopolitics of Energy? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
What Role for the Middle East In the New Geopolitics of Energy? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Slide 1 What Role for the Middle East In the New Geopolitics of Energy? Prof. Dr Samuele Furfari ULB Brussels, 03 April 2014 1/2/1979 LE problme de l'nergie Oil consumption in the world Energies used in the EU transport sector World
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LE problème de l'énergie
Energies used in the EU transport sector Oil consumption in the world
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World proven oil reserves are still growing
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Who owns the reserve?
5
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Source : BP, 2013
L’« anomalie géologique » du Moyen-Orient
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1 to 2$/b But not of best quality Aramco : 285 G$ revenues in 2010
Production de brut de l'Arabie Saoudite
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Iran
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Iraq
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Strategic Crude Oil Export Pipeline Infrastructure Project
Haditah
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Results of the first call for tender in Iraq after 30 years
Field Bidders Origin of bidders Mb/d present Mb/d Prospective Tender submitted ( $/b) Negotiated price ( $/b) Rumaila BP China National Petroleum Co. (CNPC) UK Chine 1,0 2,85 4 2 (June 09) West Qurna-1 Exxon Royal Dutch Shell U.S.A. UK/NL 0,28 2,1 4 (June 09) 1,90 (Oct. 09) Lukoil ConocoPhillips Russia USA 1,5 6,49 (June 09) 1,90 (Oct. 09) Zubair ENI US Occidental Korea Gas Corp Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization Italia U.S.A. Korea Iraq 0,23 1,1 4,80 (June09) 2 (Oct. 09)
20 years technical service contracts but possible extension to 25 years
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Libya
Kaddafi coup Kippur war 1988 attacks Rehabilitation
- f Kaddafi
2004 Revolution of 2011
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OPEC Crude export by regions (%)
OPEC data Source: OPEC
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Asia = 74%
¾ of ME's oil is flowing to Asia.
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Arab world development and oil production
Source: for oil production : BP and www.indexmundi.com for GDP : The Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/arab_league_map
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A divided OPEC (1)
Long term interest Short term interest Member states Saudi A, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar (Bahrain, Oman) Equator, Angola, Algeria, Nigeria, Libya, Iran, Venezuela Reserves Very High Medium (except Venezuela and Iran) Extraction Costs Extremely low Extremely low to higher Population Low High – youth Financing needs Low High Political system Kingdoms Republics Religion Sunni and strong
- pposition to Shiites
Various Kaddafi /Iran : openly anti-Semitism and anti-Christians Iran Shiites and strong opposition to Sunni
Saud family statement : "if Iran did not line up on nuclear, Saudi could replace Iranian crude exports" "Anyone who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the anger of the Muslim nation. Recognize the Zionist regime is to recognize the defeat of the Muslim world. "The "infect spot" should "be wiped off the face of the earth." Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Oct. 26, 2005
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A divided OPEC (2)
Long term interest Short term interest Relations with USA Quincy pact Venezuela + Iran : open opposition toward USA Iran : Washington Hawks's strategy: embargo on oil export and petroleum products imports (pistachios) Strategy Protect the monopolistic rest Keep present situation Produce more now Avoid development of GTL/CTL Limit military capacity of Iran Increase as much the revenues now by increasing prices Interest to have same price of GTL/CTL Future Oil ?
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The end of conventional oil?
- Peak? plateau.
– Demand will not grow linearly continually.
- Markets do not
believe in peak-oil – Main oil investors are pension funds
« The oil shortage is like the horizon that goes back constantly as we get closer. Oil reserves are unknown, unmeasurable and unimportant » Morris Adelman
207 G$ in 10 y
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La quarantaine 1973-2013 est terminée
La contre-révolution énergétique est déjà gagnée car
1.
UNCLOSS
2.
Nouvelles réserves de pétrole conventionnel
3.
Nouvelles réserves de gaz conventionnel
4.
Gaz de roche-mère
5.
Pétrole de roche-mère
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United Nations Convention
- n the Law of the Sea
It gives coastal States rights they had not before
UNCLOS Montego Bay, 1982 Entered into force in 1994 Just after oil shocks of the 70's
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New regions for oil and gas exploration
Source: EIA, IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, BP Statistical Review, Industry Sources
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Samuele Furfari 22
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Saudi America
The US shale gas is wet and oil produced justify any gas production.
Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook (oct 2012)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Drilling Productivity Repor
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Geopolitical consequences …
Malacca streight Malacca streight
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