WG7: The modelling group In situ / remote sensing integration through - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

WG7: “The modelling group”

In situ / remote sensing integration through modelling

Members present at Asilomar: Simon Ferrier Rob Alkemade Susana Baena Dan Faith Michael Jennings Walter Jetz Florencia Sangermano Jorn Scharlemann Woody Turner

Prioritised 2015 deliverables

Remotely-observed climate (time series) Species modelling (integrative occurrence predictions) for selected taxa Integrated spatial biological data Remotely-derived base environmental attributes Modelled compositional turnover for broader range of taxa Remotely-observed vegetation attributes, land cover / use Habitat-condition training data, meta-analyses etc Estimated / modelled habitat condition (time series) Protected area boundaries (time series)

Deliverable 1:

Global estimation of change in retention of terrestrial biodiversity as a function of

• bserved change in habitat

condition & climate

Deliverable 3:

Global projection of change in retention & protection of terrestrial biodiversity under future scenarios of land use & climate

Projected habitat condition (and climate)

Deliverable 2:

Global assessment of change in representation of terrestrial biodiversity within protected areas

Future scenarios of land use & climate

Links to Aichi Targets

Aichi Target 5 “by 2020, the rate of loss of all natural habitats,

including forests, is at least halved and where feasible brought close to zero, and degradation and fragmentation is significantly reduced”

Aichi Target 11 “by 2020, at least 17 per cent of terrestrial … areas,

especially areas of particular importance for biodiversity … are conserved through … ecologically representative … systems of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures”

+ 6th World Parks Congress (November 2014) Aichi Target 12 “by 2020 the extinction of known threatened species

has been prevented and their conservation status, particularly of those most in decline, has been improved and sustained”

Aichi Target 15 “by 2020 By 2020, ecosystem resilience and the

contribution of biodiversity to carbon stocks has been enhanced, through conservation and restoration, including restoration of at least 15 per cent

• f degraded ecosystems, thereby contributing to climate change

mitigation and adaptation”

+ GBO4 and IPBES? Deliverable 1:

Global estimation of change in retention of terrestrial biodiversity as a function of

• bserved change in habitat

condition & climate

Deliverable 3:

Global projection of change in retention & protection of terrestrial biodiversity under future scenarios of land use & climate

Deliverable 2:

Global assessment of change in representation of terrestrial biodiversity within protected areas

Implementing agencies & partners

• Map of Life initiative (Yale University,

University of Colorado etc)

• Predicts initiative (UNEP-WCMC,

Imperial College, UCL, University of Sussex)

• GloBio initiative (PBL Netherlands

Environmental Assessment Agency etc)

• CSIRO
• Kew Garden
• Clark University
• NCEAS
• NASA
• GBIF?
• etc ...

Task leads

• Environmental layer development (observed & projected) W.Jetz,

F.Sangemano

• Spatial biological data integration S.Ferrier, W.Jetz
• Species modelling (integrative occurrence predictions) W.Jetz
• Compositional-turnover modelling S.Ferrier
• Habitat condition (observed change) estimation & modelling

J.Scharlemann, S.Ferrier, M.Jennings

• Scenarios of projected change in habitat condition & climate R.Alkemade
• Modelling of change in retention of biodiversity – past-to-present &

projected S.Ferrier, W.Jetz

• Analysis of change in protected-area representativeness – past-to-

present & projected W.Jetz, S.Ferrier

• Overall coordination, synthesis, communication etc S.Ferrier,

M.Jennings, S.Baena

Schedule (post-meeting plan)

Ideas for funding

How much?

• To achieve minimum acceptable level of rigour in

results of models & analyses across the three deliverables: $3.0 million over two years

• To operationalise the methodology as a dynamic
• nline system: $?? (WG8 helping to estimate this)

By whom?

• Countries through CBD or GEO?
• Corporations?
• NSF etc?

What’s needed from other WGs & RBONs

• WG1: Ongoing engagement re incorporation of genetic &

phylogenetic dimensions

• WG2: Potential additions to biological data for model fitting, and
• ngoing discussion re future model validation & calibration
• WG3: Engagement needed re respective methodologies for deriving

“habitat condition” and “ecosystem degradation” from remote sensing

• WG4: Ongoing discussion re potential freshwater application of

integrated modelling approach

• WG8: Emerging collaboration to work with all WGs to develop a

“whole of GEO BON” vision for interoperability, modelling & analysis

• WG9: Addressing the link between our deliverables and Aichi target

indicators

• RBONs: Ongoing engagement re gap-filling biological data coverage

through incorporation of regional datasets

Challenges and gaps

• Finding the necessary funding ...

Actions and next steps

• Writing “prospectus” proposal for potential

funders by the end of January ...

Thank you