Welcome to the Border Trade Advisory Committee Meeting The meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Welcome to the Border Trade Advisory Committee Meeting The meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Welcome to the Border Trade Advisory Committee Meeting The meeting will start at 8:30 a.m. MST Please turn off your video and mute your phones We will be using the Mentimeter polling application during this meeting You may find it


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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Welcome to the Border Trade Advisory Committee Meeting

  • The meeting will start at 8:30 a.m. MST
  • Please turn off your video and mute your phones
  • We will be using the Mentimeter polling application during this meeting

– You may find it helpful to load www.menti.com into the browser of your device now. The meeting code is: 53 83 66 Having trouble connecting? Contact Giacomo Yaquinto: via text (512-656-2818) or in the chat box

1

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan

Binational Regional Steering Committee El Paso/Santa Teresa/Chihuahua Region

July 2, 2020

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Agenda

Goals, Objectives, and Institutions (Chapter 2) Texas-Mexico Border: Past and Present (Chapter 3) Binational Multimodal Transportation Network Designation (Chapter 4) Next Steps and Closing Remarks

5 6 9

3

Introduction (Chapter 1)

3

Preliminary Future Forecasts for the Border Region (Chapter 6)

7

Preliminary Results on Economic Importance of the Border (Chapter 7)

8 4

Introduction/Opening Remarks

1

Activities since Previous Meeting (April 2020)

2

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Recap of Previous BTAC Meeting (April 2020)

  • Stakeholder outreach

– BNRSC round 4 themes

  • Refinements made to Chapters 1 (Introduction) and 2

(Goals, Objectives, and Institutions) based on BTAC/BNRSC member feedback

– Update base year of data to 2018/2019 – Update institutions and agencies involved in key aspects of the binational relation that impacts the U.S.-Mexico border

  • Further development of Chapters 3 (Texas-Mexico

Border: Past And Present), 4 (Binational Multimodal Transportation Network Designation), and 5 (Needs Assessment and System Performance)

– Includes review of wait time versus crossing time

4

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Introduction

Chapter 1

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Introduction Overview

6

Chapter Purpose Key Messages Refinements/Changes

  • Provide background information on

the importance of the Texas-Mexico border

  • Provide purpose of the BTMP
  • Show BTMP development process
  • Provide BTMP Final Report content
  • Texas-Mexico border connects people

and commerce throughout U.S. and Mexico

  • Blueprint for binational policy,

program, and projects

  • Identify transportation issues, needs,

challenges, opportunities, and strategies

  • Underpinned by data-driven analysis

and binational stakeholder input

  • In 2019, Mexico was the largest

trading partner of the U.S.

  • Addition of cultural/personal ties

aspect

  • Economic, demographic, and goods

movement information updated to 2019

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Refinements to Introduction (Chapter 1)

  • Mexico is the largest trading partner of the U.S.

– 68% of trade between the two countries passes through the Texas-Mexico border

  • U.S.-Mexico trade has more than tripled between 1994 and 2019

– Increased from $173 billion to $615 billion

  • Border region population grew 70% from 4.4 million in 1990 to 7.4 million in 2019
  • In 2019, more than 32 million cars, 19 million pedestrians, and 90,000 passenger

buses crossed the Texas-Mexico border

7

Chapter Feedback Response 1

Clarification for the use of 2017 as the base year for data Use more recent data for key border story elements; will maintain 2017 as study baseline Include cultural ties Include reference using anecdotal information Further explain and show demographic break down by location and type of crossing Provide details in Chapter 3

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Goals, Objectives, and Institutions

Chapter 2

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Goals, Objectives, and Institutions Overview

9

Chapter Purpose Key Messages Refinements/Changes

  • Present BTMP vision and mission
  • Present BTMP goals and objectives
  • Identify the institutions and

agencies that partner along the Texas-Mexico border and their roles

  • Goals and objectives developed

through consensus

  • Joint management and

collaborative efforts between binational partners allow border to function effectively

  • Update institutions and agencies for

border policy development, planning, and infrastructure development

  • Differentiate border management

process, roles, and procedures

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Refinements to Goals, Objectives, and Institutions (Chapter 2)

10

Chapter Feedback Response 2

Discuss the current coordination between local, state, and federal agencies and how collaboration can be improved and enhanced Include reference to coordination, plus added binational coordination for responses to border emergencies/ disruptions Cover alternative sources of funding as an option for the border Include reference to Donation Acceptance Program (DAP) and role of private sector Consider showing the process flows in a graphic way to simplify content Add visuals to chapter

  • Identified opportunities for better coordination along the border

– Both between the two countries and between the agencies in each country

  • Described Resiliency Planning and Joint Incident Management and Emergency Response along the

border

– Including Sister Cities agreement

  • Identified agencies leading planning efforts inside and outside border crossings
  • Expanded list of agencies and stakeholders of Texas-Mexico border
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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

  • A large number of institutions and agencies on both sides of the border involved in U.S.-Mexico border
  • Gaps in coordination between levels of government within each country and lack of standardized

mechanisms for local stakeholders to participate in border-related decisions

11

Institutional Relations at the Border (2.3)

TOPIC BORDER POLICY DEVELOPMENT BORDER PLANNING BORDER MANAGEMENT & OPERATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE AT BORDER CROSSINGS INFRASTRUCTURE CONNECTING TO BORDER CROSSINGS

U.S. side Federally-led (oversight by DOS) Inside border crossings: led by CBP; outside border crossings: USDOT guidance, with active state DOT participation Federally-led (CBP) Federally-led (GSA), shared with states, counties, cities, or private sector Based on ownership of infrastructure/ network Mexico side Federally-led (oversight by SRE) Federally-based process. Inside border crossings: led by Aduanas and SCT;

  • utside border crossings:

led by SCT Federally-led (Aduanas) Federally-led (INDAABIN), shared with states or private sector Federally-led; small state, local, and private sector role Binational coordination mechanisms 21st Border Initiative, high economic dialogue JWC, BBBXG, ad-hoc regional efforts Ad-hoc groups at individual border crossings Ad-hoc groups at individual border crossings On a project-by-project basis

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

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U.S.-Mexico and Texas-Mexico Border Planning Processes (2.3)

U.S. P . Pla lanning Process ss Federal

  • CBP leads “inside border crossing” planning
  • 5-year planning document for land POE capital

investments

  • Guidance by USDOT on transportation planning process

“outside border crossing”

  • FAST Act
  • Statewide planning requirements
  • Metropolitan planning requirements

Texas

  • Texas Transportation Plan (TTP) 2040
  • TxDOT Strategic Plan
  • Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP)
  • Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan
  • Texas Freight Mobility Plan 2018
  • Metropolitan Transportation Plans

Mexico Pl Planning Pr Process “General Planning Law” (1985)

  • Norms and principles (including National Development Plan)
  • Basis for integration and functioning (National System of

Democratic Planning)

  • Basis of participation and coordination

National Development Plan

  • Describes programs that need to be developed including:
  • Sectorial plans (for key federal agencies)
  • Institutional (for quasi-governmental agencies)

Other Plans

  • Aduanas leads “inside border crossing” planning
  • Infrastructure Modernization Plan (IMP)
  • SCT supports “inside border crossing” planning and leads

transportation planning process “outside border crossing”

  • Sectorial Plan for Transportation and Communications
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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

BTAC Feedback

  • 1. Did we adequately address your comments

from the last BTAC meeting?

  • 2. Are there other topics that need to be

included in this chapter?

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Texas-Mexico Border: Past and Present

Chapter 3

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Texas-Mexico Border: Past and Present Overview

15

Chapter Purpose Key Messages Refinements/Changes

  • Identify the trends and current

conditions of the Texas-Mexico border

  • Provide high-level socioeconomic and

cross-border movements

  • Describe binational multimodal

transportation infrastructure

  • Guide preliminary identification of

issues and needs

  • The border region population and

employment is growing

  • The border sustains trade between

all Texas counties, all U.S. states, and all Mexican states

  • Cross-border freight continues to

grow, yet people crossings have declined

  • Investments in border infrastructure

and connecting infrastructure have not kept pace with population and trade growth

  • Information data points updated

to 2019

  • Synthesized information about

factors affecting travel demand

  • Described history of border

infrastructure

  • Added description of current

state of border transportation infrastructure

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Texas-Mexico Border: Past and Present (Chapter 3)

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Chapter Feedback Response 3

Update current conditions data to 2019, where possible Updated socioeconomic, trade, and infrastructure data to 2019, where available Provide additional information on border crossing wait times Amplified border wait time trends in chapter to illustrate trends Consider ways to collect southbound movements more accurately Continued to work with SCT/SAT and examined other sources; there are no borderwide southbound data sources Show data on commerce between ports and more details for the transportation of goods Added more detail on maritime; additional details are available in technical papers Enhance the border story to weave in cultural and geographic ties Improved border story with specific language, examples, and bullets

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

17

Population

  • 7.4 million people live along the border (2019)
  • Borderwide population increased 70% from 1990 to 2019

Employment

  • 97% employment growth from 1990 to 2019

— Texas: 76% — Mexico: 114%

Income

  • Incomes in Texas border counties increased by 20%, outpacing U.S. growth rate (4%)
  • Texas border poverty line declined, from 36% in 1990 to 23% in 2018
  • Incomes in Mexico border states grew between 2010 and 2015

Education

  • An increase in federal education programs have led to more Texas high school and college graduates
  • Educación media superior obligatoria 2012 has driven educational advancements in Mexico

History

  • International bridge development began after the U.S.-Mexico Rio Grande Rectification Treaty of 1933
  • Although trade is growing, border crossing investments have not kept pace

Trade

  • Majority of U.S.-Mexico trade is handled by the border
  • Ratification of NAFTA has tripled trade across the border from 1994 to 2019

Texas-Mexico Border Story: What’s Been Covered (3.1 to 3.6)

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Overview of Border Transportation Infrastructure History

  • Only 10 bridge crossings along the Texas-

Mexico border were built or improved upon since 1994

  • September 11th fundamentally altered

border security and operating procedures

  • Only one-third of border facilities

constructed since 1980 have seen additional investment

  • USMCA and continued population growth

places additional pressure on the border

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Cross-Border Trade Connections to all Texas Counties (3.6)

19

Northbou

  • und M

Movements: Trade D Destination

  • ns b

by County Southbou

  • und M

Movements: T Trade O Origins b by County

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Cross-Border Trade Connecting all U.S. and Mexican States (3.6)

20

Northbound Movements: Origins (MX) and Destinations (U.S.) Southbound Movements: Origins (U.S.) and Destinations (MX)

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

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Border Crossings

  • Texas-Mexico border region added seven new bridge crossings right after NAFTA
  • Border activity is dynamic; border transportation infrastructure is not as adaptable

Highway System

  • Primary conduit for people and goods movement
  • Facilitates daily life for millions of residents and sustains local and global trade

Freight Rail System

  • Provides lower-cost shipping for bulk agricultural commodities, minerals and international shipping containers
  • Unified cargo processing in Laredo creates efficient cross-border rail trade

Aviation

  • Enables business, personal travel, and cargo movements on numerous U.S. and Mexican carriers
  • 15 airports in Texas have regularly scheduled flights to 31 airports throughout Mexico

Seaports

  • Short sea shipping across the Gulf of Mexico is competitive with truck and rail
  • Seaport shipping alleviates congestion at land border crossings

Pipelines

  • Predominantly used for U.S. exports, with vast majority of the total capacity used for outflows to Mexico
  • 13 import and export pipeline terminals exist along the border

Current State of Border Transportation Infrastructure System

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Highway and Roadway Network (3.7)

  • 30,200 lane miles serve the border region
  • Passenger vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in

border region increased 35% and commercial VMT increased 17% from 2005 to 2018

  • Cross-border truck trade increased 52%

between 2006 and 2019

  • Roadway capacity increased 14% between

2006 and 2019

22 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Lane Miles (Millions)

El Paso Laredo RGV

Texas Borderwide Lane Miles by Region

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Billions Northbound Southbound $182.9 $127.3 $90.4 $113.5

Texas-Mexico Cross-Border Truck Trade Value

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Highway and Roadway Network (3.7)

  • Highway and roadway infrastructure

has not kept pace with passenger and freight growth in the border region

23 BTS border crossing data only provides border entry information.

The image part with relationship ID rId2 was not found in the file.

2.2 Million (1996) 4.2 Million (2017)

The number of northbound trucks increased by

2 million or 93%

since 1996

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

The Texas-Mexico Border Story: Northbound Movement of People (3.7.5) Each year, 84.8 million people cross the Texas-Mexico border.*

24

10 20 30 40 50 60

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Number of Personal Vehicles (Millions)

Border Total Laredo RGV El Paso

5 10 15 20 25

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of Pedestrians (Millions) Border Total Laredo Region RGV Region El Paso Region

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Number of Buses (Thousands)

Border Total Laredo Region RGV Region El Paso Region

Te Texas-Me Mexico B

  • Borderwide

Northbound d Pers rsonal V Vehi hicles Te Texas-Me Mexico B

  • Borderwide

Northbound d Pe Pedestrian ians Te Texas-Me Mexico B

  • Borderwide

Northbound d Bu Buse ses * There is a lack of southbound data on the movement of people in the border region.

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

The Texas-Mexico Border Story: Freight Rail Network (3.8)

  • Freight rail infrastructure has not

grown at the same rate as rail trade and traffic

25 $0 $20 $40 $60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Billions Northbound Southbound $49.0 $25.8 $19.9 $27.0

Texa xas-Mexico

  • Cross-Border Ra

Rail T Tra rade V Value

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Mobility and Reliability: Northbound Wait Times – Commercial Vehicles (3.12.2)

  • Commercial ve

l vehicles: : From 2003-2019, median wait times were relatively steady; 90th percentile wait times more than doubled (over 21 minutes) across the entire border region

26

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Wait Time (Minute)

50th

th Percent

centile e Border er W Wait T Time: me: C Commer merci cial V Vehicl cle ( e (Stand ndard) 90th

th Percent

centile e Border er W Wait T Time: me: C Commer merci cial V Vehicl cle ( e (Stand ndard)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Wait Time (Minute) Border Total Laredo Region RGV Region El Paso Region

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Mobility and Reliability: Northbound Wait Times – Personal Vehicles (3.12.2)

  • Personal ve

vehicles: : Median wait times increased 213% (17 minutes) across the border between 2003-2019

27

50th

th Percent

centile e Border W Wait Time: me: Personal al V Vehicle ( (Stan andar ard) 90th

th Percent

centile e Border W Wait Time: me: Personal al V Vehicle ( (Stan andar ard)

5 10 15 20 25 30

Wait Time (Minute)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Wait Time (Minute) Border Total Laredo Region RGV Region El Paso Region

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Mobility and Reliability: Northbound Wait Times – Bicycles/Pedestrians (3.12.2)

  • Bicycle

les/ s/Pedest stri rians: s: Median wait times increased slightly in the Laredo and RGV regions, while remaining stable in the El Paso region during the same time period

28

50th

th Percent

centile e Border W Wait Time: me: Pede destrian ans ( (Stan andar ard) 90th

th Percent

centile e Border W Wait Time: me: Pede destrian ans ( (Stan andar ard)

5 10 15 20 25 30

2008 2009 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Wait Time (Minute)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Wait Time (Minute) Border Total Laredo Region RGV Region El Paso Region

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Mobility and Reliability: Roadway Delay and Congestion (3.12.3)

  • Roadway congestion in the Texas-Mexico border region is concentrated in urban areas

and around border crossings

  • El Pa

Paso Re Region: : most congestion occurs on the I-10 corridor and FH 45

  • Lar

aredo Re Region: congested corridors are north-south I-35, FH 85, and I-69

  • Rio G

Gra rande V Valle lley R Region: : significant congestion occurs on I-69 C, I-69 E, and on I-2

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

El Paso Region Congestion

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Safety and Security: Roadway Incidents (3.12.4)

  • Commercial vehicle and pedestrian/cyclist crashes in the border region have

steadily declined since 2015

  • Crashes in Mexico declined significantly over the past few years

31

Tot

  • tal C

l Commercial V l Vehicle le C Crashes b by R Region

  • n

Total al Pe Pedestrian ian/Cy Cyclis ist C Crashes b by R Region 20 40 60 80 100 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Hundreds 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Safety and Security: Rail Incidents (3.12.4)

  • Between 2008 and 2017, rail incidents declined 78% on the Texas side and

remained constant on the Mexico side of the borderwide region

32

Texa xas-Me Mexico B Borde derwide de R Rail I Incide dents

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of Rail Incidents

Texas Border Region Mexico Border Region

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Asset Preservation: Pavement Conditions (3.12.5)

  • Between 2010 and 2019, Texas-side border pavement conditions stayed relatively

consistent

  • Within the Mexico border states, pavement conditions are of higher quality than the

national averages

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Texas B Borderwide P Pavement C Conditions

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94

2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Weighted Average Border Total Laredo Region RGV Region El Paso Region

34.3% 41.3% 28.9% 38.8% 68.0% 30.0% 43.9% 26.2% 41.0% 67.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Coahuila Chihuahua Nuevo León Tamaulipas National Percent Deficient 2010 2012

Mexico B Border S States – Percent cent o

  • f P

Pavement ements D Def efici cient ent

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Asset Preservation: Bridge Conditions (3.12.5)

  • Bridge conditions in the Texas border counties improved between 2012 and 2014,

but have been declining since 2014

  • As of 2019, bridge conditions in the El Paso and RGV Regions are higher than the

average score in the Texas borderwide region, while bridge condition scores in the Laredo Region are lower

34

Texas B Borderwi wide B Brid idge C Condit itio ions (2012–2019) 019)

88.0 88.5 89.0 89.5 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Weighted Average

El Paso Laredo RGV Texas Borderwide

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Asset Preservation: Border Crossing Conditions (3.12.5)

  • All Texas-Mexico border crossings are in

good or fair condition—with the exception of Fort Hancock-El Porvenir

  • Many structures may require future

investments to ensure infrastructure is able to meet transportation demands

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

BTAC Feedback

  • 1. Did we adequately address your comments

from the last BTAC meeting?

  • 2. Are there other topics that need to be

included in this chapter?

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Binational Multimodal Transportation Network Designation

Chapter 4

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

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Designation Process for Binational Multimodal Transportation Corridors Overview

Chapter Purpose Key Messages Refinements/Changes

  • Summarize the binational

multimodal transportation network designation process for: – Texas and local regions – Mexico’s four border states – U.S. and Mexico

  • Three border regions were

identified, consistent with previous efforts

  • 5-sphere planning analysis

structure

  • Developed designation criteria
  • 11 multimodal transportation

corridors are designated

  • Provides a consistent framework

for ongoing transportation planning in the region

  • Integration, accessibility, and

connectivity are key criteria used in designation

  • Process for designation began at

border crossings and expanded geographically and by mode

  • Six designated corridors serve

north-south movements and five serve east-west movements

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Refinements to Binational Multimodal Transportation Network Designation (Chapter 4)

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Chapter Feedback Response 4

Include Mazatlán-Durango-Monterrey-Reynosa corridor Added Mazatlán-Durango-Monterrey-Reynosa corridor Include Port of Brownsville Added Port of Brownsville Include Port of Matamoros The Port of Matamoros could not be added because it was not finished by 2017 (baseline year), but it will be considered for Chapter 8 – Identification of Future Needs and Strategies

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Binational Multimodal Network Designation (4.1.4)

40

El Paso Presidio

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Binational Networks Supporting the Texas-Mexico Border (4.4)

  • Integrates the 29 border crossings with the

multimodal transportation networks

  • Identifies binational trade corridors from

existing planning documents and stakeholder input

  • Identifies multimodal systems supporting these

trade corridors

  • Designates multimodal, cross-border corridors

based on integration, connectivity and accessibility criteria

41

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

BTAC Feedback

  • 1. Please identify any missing corridors.
  • 2. What other elements should we consider in this

chapter?

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Chapter 6: Future Forecasts for the Border Region

Preliminary Analysis and Findings

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

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Future Forecasts for the Border Region Overview

Chapter Purpose Key Messages Preliminary Findings

  • Provide future forecasts to 2050 of the

movements of people and goods

  • Assess future demand for the

binational transportation systems serving the Texas-Mexico border

  • Forecast methodology accounts for

historical trends and future factors

  • Future factors include social, technical,

environmental, economic, and political considerations

  • Movement of people and goods are

forecasted by mode, POE, geography

  • Future scenarios will assess:

– Employment – National economic activity (GDP) – Exchange rate – Border policies

  • An additional 30 million people will

cross the border – most by personal vehicle

  • Truck and train movements almost

triple – stressing border infrastructure capacity

  • The value of trade crossing the border

more than triples – making an effective border critical for the U.S. and Mexican economies

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

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Population

  • 8.8 million people live along the border (2050)
  • Borderwide population increases another 18% (1.3 million) from 2017 to 2050

Employment

  • Continued employment growth in border region from 2017 to 2050
  • Texas: 2.1% growth per year
  • Mexico: continued growth

Income

  • Incomes in Texas border counties expected to grow 0.5% per year
  • Texas border poverty expected to continue declining between 2017 and 2050
  • Incomes in Mexico border states expected to grow between 2017 and 2050

Education

  • Texas border region high school and college/technical school graduation rates continue to increase between

2017 and 2050

  • More Mexico border residents are expected to complete secondary and upper education due to compulsory

upper secondary education policies

Trade

  • Ratification of USMCA continue the economic competitiveness developed under NAFTA
  • COVID-19 may result in short-term trade decline/longer-term near-shoring of manufacturing

Texas-Mexico Border Story: Looking to the Future

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

  • Population in the border region is

projected to grow annually by: – Texas: 0.44% from 2017 to 2050 – Mexico: 0.52% from 2017 to 2050

  • Population has not been a good

predictor of the cross-border movement of people

– While the border region population grew through 2019, the movement of people through the border declined more than 50 million

46

The Future of the Border Region: Population

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections (2010-2050); CONAPO, Projections of the Population of the Municipalities of Mexico (2015-2030) 1.82 2.12 2.31 2.55 2.82 3.01 3.14 3.25 3.35 3.42 3.47 3.51 3.54 2.55 3.02 3.47 3.79 4.02 4.23 4.42 4.58 4.72 4.88 5.02 5.12 5.20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Population in Millions

Texas Border Region (Actual) Texas Border Region (Forecast) Mexico Border Region (Actual) Mexico Border Region (Forecast) Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections (2010-2050); CONAPO, Projections of the Population of the Municipalities of Mexico (2015- 2030), UN World Population Prospects 2019

Population Projections

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

  • The cross-border movement of people is

influenced by local factors

– Employment – Exchange rates – Gasoline prices – Border policies

  • Employment in the border region is

expected to grow annually by:

– Texas: 2.1% annual growth from 2017 to 2050 – Employment forecasts are not available for Mexico

47

The Future of the Border Region: Employment

More than 99% of the movement of people starts and ends within 60 miles of the border

Annual Employment Growth

0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1990 1995 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Employment in Millions

Texas Border Region

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Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

  • The cross-border movement of goods are

influenced by national and international economic trends, particularly the U.S. economy

  • Truck and rail border crossings tend to be

longer distance

  • Mexico was the U.S.’ largest trading partner in

goods (2019)

  • U.S. trade is forecast to outpace economic

growth annually from 2017 to 2030 (per U.S. Congressional Budget Office):

– Economic Growth: 1.9% – Exports: 2.2% – Imports: 2.4%

48

The Future of the National Economies

The majority of movement of goods have origins or destinations outside Texas and the Mexican border states for northbound and southbound

Northbound Movements: Origins (MX) and Destinations (U.S.)

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SLIDE 49

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

  • Developed forecasts of the movements of

people and goods by POE – People: number of people, passenger vehicles, buses, pedestrians – Goods: trucks, railcars, tons, value

  • Conducted trend analysis of border crossings

and socioeconomic factors

  • Collected forecasts of socioeconomic variables

to form a mid id-ca case or r “most st li likely” fore recast st

  • Allocated POE forecasts to border crossings
  • Forecasts calibrated to other sources

49

Forecasting Methodology

20 20 25 25 30 30 35 35 40 40 45 45 50 50 55 55

Milli llions

Forecasts Consistent with Observations for Northbound Personal Vehicle Movements

Observed Crossings Predicted Crossings

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SLIDE 50

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Forecast Data Sources

  • Approach consistent with planning reports and research
  • External inputs to forecast

– Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) – Texas SAM-V4 model – Texas Demographic Center – Energy Information Agency (EIA) – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

  • Forecasts validated against those developed by other sources

– 2018 Texas Freight Mobility Plan – Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) – TRANSEARCH forecasts – FHWA border forecasts

  • Reviewed Metropolitan Planning Organization Long-Range Plans

50

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SLIDE 51

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

51

  • 25 million additional people

will cross the border through POEs in 2050 (28% growth)

  • Personal vehicles remain the

major mode of personal travel

Preliminary Future Movement of People Through Texas-Mexico Border: Mid-Case Forecast Borderwide

87.7 112.4 20 40 60 80 100 120 2017 2050

Millions

Movement of People

Personal Vehicle Passengers Pedestrians Bus Passengers

*number of people

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SLIDE 52

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Future Movement of People Through Texas-Mexico Border: Mid-Case Forecast by Region

52

Movement of People

The movement of people is broadly distributed across the three border regions

40. 40.8 30. 30.8 40. 40.8

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 El Paso Laredo Rio Grande Valley

Millions

Passenger Crossings by Region and Mode, 2050

Personal Vehicle Passengers Pedestrians Bus Passengers

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SLIDE 53

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

53

  • Trucks are expected to nearly

triple (189% growth)

  • Railcars expected to more

than double (163% growth)

Preliminary Future Movement of Goods Through Texas-Mexico Border: Mid-Case Forecast Borderwide

*number of crossings

4.3 12.3 1.0 2.6

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2017 2050 Millions

Movement of Goods

Trucks Railcars

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SLIDE 54

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Future Movement of Goods Through Texas-Mexico Border: Mid-Case Forecast by Region

54

Movement of Goods

Goods are moved mostly through the Laredo/Coahuila/Nuevo León/Tamaulipas Region

0.2 .2 2.1 .1 0.3 .3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 El Paso Laredo Rio Grande Valley Millions

Northbound Railcar Movements by Region, 2050 2.2 .2 7.1 .1 3.1 .1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 El Paso Laredo Rio Grande Valley Millions

Northbound Truck Movements by Region, 2050

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SLIDE 55

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

2017 2050 Millions

Total Southbound Tonnage

Truck Rail 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

2017 2050 Millions

Total Northbound Tonnage

Truck Rail

Preliminary Future Value of Trade Through Texas-Mexico Border

55

  • Tonnage is expected to more than triple (219% overall) with faster growth in the northbound

direction

  • Truck tonnage grows faster (251%) than rail tonnage (170%)

44.8 152.7 63.0 190.9

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SLIDE 56

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Future Value of Trade Through Texas-Mexico Border

56

  • Mexico is the U.S.’ largest trading partner in goods – just over half the value of trade through the

border is Mexican exports to the U.S.

  • The value of trade grows faster (250%) than the movement of goods (184%) due to greater

growth in higher value supply chains such as high technology

$216.1 $742.9

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

2017 2050 Billions

Total Northbound Value

Truck Rail

$160.7 $576.9

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

2017 2050 Billions

Total Southbound Value

Truck Rail

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SLIDE 57

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Alternate Future Scenarios for the Border

57

  • The mid case reflects a continuation of

prevailing trends

– 2.1% annual employment growth – 1.8% annual economic growth (U.S.) – Stable currencies

  • Alternate future scenarios are based on

factors affecting the movement of people and goods across the border

– Low c w cas ase: slower economic growth and restrictive border policies – High gh c cas ase: : higher economic growth, facilitative border policies and additional infrastructure

Low-Case Scenario

  • Slower employment growth (1.3% per year)
  • Slower national economic growth (1.6% per year)
  • Peso (40% devaluation)
  • Restrictive border & trade policies (-10% impact)

High-Case Scenario

  • Additional infrastructure investments
  • Faster employment growth (2.4% per year)
  • Faster national economic growth (2% per year)
  • Peso (20% appreciation)
  • Greater trade integration (+10% impact)

Question: Do the assumptions for the alternate scenarios make sense to you?

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SLIDE 58

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Alternate Future Scenarios: Movement of People

58

  • In the low case, the movement of

people is lower due to economic conditions, the exchange rate, and border policies

– Cross-border land movements decline by more than 18 million to 2011 levels

  • In the high case, the movement of

people increases by more than 50 million, straining border infrastructure

– Consistent with post-2011 trends

87.7 69.1

112.4

142.2 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 Low Mid High

Millions of People

Movement of People (2050)

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SLIDE 59

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Alternate Future Scenarios: Movement of Goods

59

  • Even in the low case, cross-border

movement of goods doubles, which will strain border infrastructure

– Over the long run, the U.S. and Mexico economies still grow, driving the demand for goods

  • In the high case, trucks more than triple

and rail containers nearly triple, driving the need for additional capacity

– With greater economic integration between the U.S. and Mexico, an efficient border is critical for the economies of both countries

4.3 1.0 9.3 1.8

12. 12.3 2.6 .6

14.5 2.8 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Trucks ks Rail C l Containers

Millions

Northbound Freight Crossings (2050)

2017 Low Mid High

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SLIDE 60

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Assessment of Future Congestion

60

  • Border crossing capacity is anticipated to be strained even further, in particular for

the movement of goods

– Commercial vehicles expected to grow across capacity-constrained border crossings – Wait times anticipated to increase significantly if no action is taken

  • North-south regional roadways providing access to border crossings are particularly

affected with limited other options to move people and goods

– I-35 into and out of Laredo – I-10 in El Paso, impacting east-west connectivity with Laredo and RGV regions – I-69, US 59, and US 77 in RGV

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SLIDE 61

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

What Do the Forecast Results Mean for the BTMP?

61

  • Usage of the POEs along the Texas-Mexico border will increase, regardless of future

scenario

  • Infrastructure improvements will be needed to accommodate future demand
  • The mix of traffic across the border will shift towards the movement of goods
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SLIDE 62

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

BTAC Feedback

  • 1. Do the forecast results make sense to you? Please

explain.

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SLIDE 63

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Chapter 7: Economic Importance of the Border

Preliminary Analysis and Findings

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SLIDE 64

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

64

Economic Importance of the Border

Chapter Purpose Key Messages Preliminary Findings

  • Demonstrate the economic importance
  • f the border
  • Highlight the economic impacts of

border delays

  • Provide input into the investment plan
  • The Texas-Mexico border supports the

economies of the border region in Mexico, Texas, and the U.S.

  • The benefit of trade extends to U.S.

and Mexican states beyond the border

  • Current delays at the border represent

missed economic opportunities

  • Future delays will grow as a result of

increased demand

  • The Texas-Mexico border generates

more than $268 billion annually in GDP and generates 4.9 million jobs in both countries

  • 97% of the total economic impact is

due to the movement of goods

  • The movement of people contributes

more than $9 billion annually to the GDP of the border region

  • Border crossing delays represent

missed economic opportunities of more than $2.7 billion annually in both countries

slide-65
SLIDE 65

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Importance of Travel Through the Border

  • The movement of people and goods

through the Texas-Mexico border has a significant impact on both countries

  • The border generates more than

$268 billion annually in GDP

– $168 billion in the U.S. – $100 billion in Mexico

  • The majority of this impact is due to

the movement of goods

65

$6.5 billion $161.6 billion $2.8 billion $97.1 billion

Unite ted S State tes Mexico

Movement of People Movement of Goods

Percent of GDP Impact Attributable to the Movement of People and Goods

slide-66
SLIDE 66

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Importance of Travel Through the Border

66

  • The movement of people and

goods generates 4.9 million jobs

  • n both sides of the border

– 1.5 million jobs in the U.S. – 3.4 million jobs in Mexico

  • These jobs support economies at

all levels of geography:

– National: both countries – State: border states – Regional: border region

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

United S States Me Mexico

Millions

National Border States Border Region

1.5 .5 m million 3.4 .4 m million

* State results include border region results in Mexico

Jobs Supported by the Movement

  • f People and Goods

*

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SLIDE 67

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Importance

  • f Cross-Border Trade/Goods
  • Total economic impact
  • Key supply chain impact
  • Binational, national, state, and regional economic impact
slide-68
SLIDE 68

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Importance of Cross-Border Trade/Goods – Methodology

68

  • 1. Estimate the value of exports by supply chain, origin, and POE
  • Data: supply chain profile 2017 data
  • Source: U.S. Census Bureau Trade Data Online (TDO), Freight Analysis Framework

(FAF), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) TransBorder Freight Data

  • 2. Estimate the impacts of exports using input-output models
  • Data: 2018 multipliers for U.S., 2015 multipliers for Mexico
  • Source: IMPLAN

Measures and outcomes

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and labor income
slide-69
SLIDE 69

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Importance of Trade Through the Border

  • The economic impact of goods

movement across the Texas- Mexico border reaches the

entire U.S. and Mexico

  • Manufacturing integration after

NAFTA has allowed (and USMCA will allow) North American manufacturing to be more competitive with Asia

  • The Texas-Mexico border trade

has had a nationally significant impact on GDP in both countries

69

Percent of GDP Dependent on Trade through Texas-Mexico Border

slide-70
SLIDE 70

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

  • Higher value-added manufacturing in durable goods including machinery, contribute

the most to the U.S. and Mexican economies

  • Goods move across the border, benefiting from the abundance of Mexican labor and

U.S. technology

Preliminary Economic Importance of Key Supply Chains Through the Border

70

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200

United S States Me Mexico

Billions

Fruits, Vegetables, and Grains High Tech Motor Vehicles Other Supply Chains (Combined)

$161 161.6 6 bil illion $97. 97.1 billio ion

Impact of Key Supply Chains on GDP

slide-71
SLIDE 71

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180

United States Mexico

$22.3 B $33.2 B $46.0 B $106.1 B $51.1 B

Billions

National Border States Border Region

$161 161.6 b 6 billion $97.1 .1 b billi lion

  • n

Economic Impact of Movement of Goods through Texas-Mexico Border

Preliminary Economic Impact of Trade by Geography

71

* State results include border region results in Mexico *

slide-72
SLIDE 72

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Impact of Trade Through the Border by Region

72

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 United States Mexico

El P l Paso, , $45.0 B B Chihuahua, $24.4 B B Laredo, , $96. $96.0 B B Co Coah-NL-Tam, m, $56. $56.7 B B RGV, , $20. $20.7 B B Tamaul ulipas, $16. $16.0 B B

Billions

$161 161.6 b 6 billion $97.1 .1 b billi lion

  • n

Economic Impact of Movement of Goods though Texas-Mexico Border

slide-73
SLIDE 73

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Importance of Cross-Border Movement of People

  • Total economic impact
  • Economic impact by mode and region
  • Economic impact on hospitality industries
slide-74
SLIDE 74

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Importance of Cross-Border Movement of People – Methodology

74

  • 1. Estimate expenditures by categories
  • Categories: retail, hotels & restaurants, recreation & entertainment, miscellaneous
  • Data: crossing data, expenditure estimates
  • Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), San Diego Association of

Governments (SANDAG), Arizona Office of Tourism

  • 2. Estimate the impacts of expenditures using input-output models
  • Data: 2018 multipliers for U.S., 2015 multipliers for Mexico
  • Source: IMPLAN

Measures and outcomes

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and labor income
slide-75
SLIDE 75

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Impact of Movement of People on GDP

75

  • Pedestrian and personal vehicle trips

strongly influence the border economy

  • Historically, Mexican nationals visit

and shop in Texas

  • The movement of people generates
  • ver $9 billion annually in GDP

– 79% by personal vehicle – 20% by foot (pedestrian) – 1% by bus

  • The impacts are greatest in the

El Paso/Santa Teresa/Chihuahua and Rio Grande Valley/Tamaulipas Regions

Economic Impact of Movement of People Through Texas-Mexico Border

$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Texas Mexican Border States

El P l Paso, , $2. $2.6 B B Chihuahua, $1. $1.1 B B Laredo, , $1. $1.7 B B Co Coah-NL-Tam, , $0. $0.7 B B RGV, , $2. $2.2 B B Tamaul ulipas, $0. $0.9 B B

Billions

$6.5 .5 b billi lion

  • n

$2.8 .8 b billi lion

  • n
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SLIDE 76

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

  • Employment in these sectors explains why job growth in some areas of the border was

among the fastest in the U.S. through the early 2000s

  • The retail industry, particularly in the U.S., benefits from the movement of people

across the border

Preliminary Breakdown of Impact of Movement of People on GDP by Industry

76

63% 11% 18% 7% 52% 8% 22% 17%

Texas Border Region Mexico Border Region

Retail Recreation & entertainment Hotels & restaurants Miscellaneous

slide-77
SLIDE 77

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Cost of Congestion

  • Economic impact of border wait times and crossing times
  • Economic impact of wait times for movement of people

and goods

slide-78
SLIDE 78

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Cost of Congestion – Methodology

78

  • 1. Estimate lost exports and expenditures due to delays at border
  • Based on how industries and people react to changes to delays at land ports of

entry (elasticities)

  • Data: crossing data, delay data, supply chain profile 2017 data, demand elasticities
  • Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Texas A&M Transportation

Institute (TTI), San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), Arizona Office of Tourism, plus prior supply chain profile and crossing data

  • 2. Estimate impacts using input-output models
  • Data: 2018 multipliers for U.S., 2015 multipliers for Mexico
  • Source: IMPLAN

Measures and outcomes

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and labor income
slide-79
SLIDE 79

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Impacts of Border Delays on GDP

79

  • Border delays represent missed
  • pportunities to the U.S. and Mexican

economies (more than $2.7 billion in GDP)

  • This impact almost doubles with crossing

time (to $4.5 billion in GDP)

– Texas: $1.2 billion annually

  • Delays at the border increase

transportation costs for goods, making them more expensive and reducing demand

  • Decreases in reliability for just-in-time

logistics reduces competitiveness with

  • ther nations

$0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 $4.0 $4.5 $5.0

Wai ait Ti Time Cr Crossing T Time

$1.5 B $2.5 B $1.2 B $2.1 B

Billions

Mexico United States

$4.5 .5 b billion $2.7 .7 b billion Economic Impact of Delays at Border Crossings on GDP

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SLIDE 80

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Impacts of Border Delays on GDP by Region

80

  • Delays at the border for the movement of people and goods represent missed economic
  • pportunities in all three regions

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 United States Mexico

El P l Paso, , $517.9 M M Chi hihu huahu hua, $320 $320.5 M M Laredo, , $541 $541.3 M M Coah-NL NL-Ta Tam, $442 $442.1 M M RGV, , $426 $426.4 M M Tamaul ulipas, $410 $410.8 M M

Millions

$1.5 .5 b billi lion

  • n

$1.2 .2 b billi lion

  • n

Economic Impact of Wait Time on GDP by Region

slide-81
SLIDE 81

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900

United S States Me Mexico

$257 M $82 M $215 M $526 M $663 M

Millions

National Border States Border Region

$866 m million $878 m million

Preliminary Economic Impacts of Delays to the Movement of Goods

  • n GDP by Geography

81

Economic Impact of Goods Wait Time on GDP by Geography

* State results include border region results in Mexico *

slide-82
SLIDE 82

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Impacts of Border Delays on Key Supply Chains

82

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000

United S States Me Mexico

Millions

Fruits, Vegetables, and Grains High Tech Motor Vehicles Other Supply Chains (Combined)

$866 866 mil illio ion $878 878 mil illio ion

Economic Impact of Goods Wait Time on GDP by Supply Chain

  • Border delays affect key supply chains in the U.S. and Mexico
slide-83
SLIDE 83

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Preliminary Economic Impacts of Delays to the Movement of People

  • n GDP by Region

83

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 Texas Mexican Border States

El Paso, $245.5 M Chihuahua, $118.9 M Laredo, $159.3 M Coah-NL-Tam, $76.3 M RGV, $214.8 M Tamaulipas, $99.9 M

Millions

$619 milli llion $295 milli llion Economic Impact of People Wait Time on GDP by Region

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SLIDE 84

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

What do the Economic Impact Results Mean for the BTMP?

  • Investments in border crossings and the border region’s roads will help reduce delays
  • Facilitating the flow of goods across the Texas-Mexico border is important for the U.S.

and Mexico remaining competitive with other nations

  • Investments will also increase regional trade in high value-added manufactured

goods and preserve jobs in both countries

84

slide-85
SLIDE 85

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

BTAC Feedback

  • 1. Do the economic impact results make sense to you?

Please explain.

  • 2. Which economic impact measures (GDP, employment,

labor income) would you most like to see?

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SLIDE 86

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Study Tasks/Three Month Look-Ahead

86

Forecasting (Task 6) Economic Analysis (Task 7) Recommendations & Investment Plan (Task 8) Implementation Plan (Task 9)

  • Refine future scenarios
  • Refine future forecasts
  • Refine assessment of

economic importance of trade through the border

  • Refine assessment of

economic impact of wait times

  • Assess economic impact of

BTMP recommendations

  • Discuss project prioritization

process

  • Draft prioritize policies,

programs & projects from existing plans and stakeholders

  • Identify funding sources
  • Identify methodology to

create implementation plan

  • Draft implementation plans

for high-priority policies, programs & projects

Next BNRSC Meetings Next BTAC Meeting Next BTAC Meeting Content

July 2020

July 9, 2020

  • Chapter 6: Future Forecasts for the Border Region (Recap)
  • Chapter 7: Economic Importance of the Border (Recap)
  • Chapter 8: Identification of Future Needs and Strategies
  • Chapter 9: Stakeholder Engagement
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SLIDE 87

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

BTMP Schedule

87

A M J J A S O N D

BTAC

Apri ril 202 2020

BNRSC Round 4

April 2 l 21-23, 2 2020

2020 020 2020 020

Full Round Feedback

August 2 2020

Texas Transportation Commission Meeting

Present Final Report

Se September 202 2020

BTAC

Final Report & PPT Review

Se September 202 2020

Proposed Final BTMP Adoption

December 202 2020

BTAC

Review Chapters 8-11

August 2 2020

BTAC

Review Chapters 2-7

June 202 2020

Texas Transportation Commission Meeting

May 202 y 2020

BNRSC Round 5

June une-July 2 2020

Full Round Feedback

July 202 2020

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SLIDE 88

Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan July 2, 2020

Contact Info

88

Alejandro Solis, Ph.D.

HDR, Principal Economist & Business Class Lead, Economics & Finance Alejandro.Solis@HDRinc.com (202) 594-3280

Timoteo “Tim” Juarez, Jr.

TxDOT, Branch Manager, International Trade & Border Planning Tim.Juarez@TxDOT.gov (512) 230-8990

BTMP Contact:

Email: TxDOT_BorderTrade@txdot.gov Phone: (512) 685-2955

Texas-Mexico BTMP Project Managers