Welcome! Jennifer Hoggatt Director Water Resources Center 2 Agenda - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Combined Technical Workgroup Meeting Aug 28, 2018, 9:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. Missouri Water Resources Plan

Welcome! Jennifer Hoggatt Director Water Resources Center 2

Agenda 9:30 Introductions 9:45 Summary of Baseline Water Supply Sources and Water Budgets and Comments from Technical Workgroup 10:30 BREAK 10:45 Introduction to Scenario Planning and Uncertainty Drivers 11:30 Introduction to Missouri Water Resources Plan Scenario Narratives 12:00 LUNCH 12:45 Break‐Out Introduction and Review of Handouts 1:15 Break‐Out Discussions ‐ Municipal & Industrial Water Demands/Supply/Treatment (2 groups) ‐ Agricultural Water Demands/Supply/Treatment (2 groups) 2:30 Break‐Out Group Report Outs 3:00 Consensus on Planning Scenarios 3:30 ADJOURN 3

Summary of Baseline Water Supply and Budgets 4

Supply Availability Update ‐ Outline  Water supply availability refresher  Updates to surface water budgets based on TWG feedback  Dry year demands  Median flows  Severity of drought years  HUC8 Level Analysis  Upper Grand example  Groundwater Supply  Groundwater budgets  Recharge estimates  Comparison of withdrawals and recharge 5

Total Water Budget Non ‐ Consumptive Use Wastewater Returns Reservoir Storage Inflow from Basin Out of State Outflow Naturalized Streamflow Groundwater Precipitation Consumptive Use Evapotranspiration Natural Components 6 6

HUC4 Current Surface Water Budget (mgd) Values in Million Gallons per Day, based on Average Annual Conditions Natural Components Streamflow Withdrawals and Returns Outflow Streamflow Streamflow Streamflow Non‐ Non‐ Evapo‐ (from Out of (from an in (generated in Total Consumptive Consumptive Consumptive Wastewater HUC4 Name Precipitation transpiration State) state HUC4) HUC4) Streamflow Withdrawals Returns Withdrawals Returns Basin Outflow 14,828 8,756 79,077 0 4,433 83,509 464 461 26 33 83,513 711 Upper Mississippi‐Salt Upper Mississippi‐ 15,095 9,112 149,601 0 4,421 154,021 986 981 118 226 154,125 714 Kaskaskia‐Meramec Lower Mississippi‐St. 10,869 5,761 155,286 0 1,773 157,059 3 4 14 13 157,059 802 Francis 6,343 3,945 31,910 0 1,699 33,610 913 928 97 21 33,549 1024 Missouri‐Nishnabotna 15,242 9,020 1,296 0 4,070 5,366 770 765 29 10 5,342 1028 Chariton‐Grand 1029 Gasconade‐Osage 30,262 18,486 2,824 0 9,390 12,214 176 175 37 27 12,203 1030 Lower Missouri 20,540 12,055 37,734 20,540 6,007 64,281 2,182 2,154 21 185 64,417 1101 Upper White 23,634 14,195 1,859 0 9,083 10,942 110 112 34 44 10,954 1107 Neosho‐Verdigris 6,369 3,881 0 0 1,854 1,854 5 6 19 24 1,860 7

Comparison of Surface Water Supply and Demand Average Year Total Withdrawals as a Percent of Total Streamflow Total Streamflow HUC4 Name (mgd) Current 2060 711 83,509 0.6% 0.1% Upper Mississippi‐Salt Upper Mississippi‐ 714 154,021 0.7% 0.7% Kaskaskia‐Meramec Lower Mississippi‐St. 802 157,059 0.0% 0.0% Francis 1024 33,610 3.0% 3.6% Missouri‐Nishnabotna 1028 5,366 14.9% 17.5% Chariton‐Grand 1029 12,214 1.7% 2.1% Gasconade‐Osage 1030 64,281 3.4% 2.6% Lower Missouri 1101 10,942 1.3% 1.5% Upper White 1107 1,854 1.3% 1.6% Neosho‐Verdigris 8 8 8 8

Supply Availability Update ‐ Outline  Water supply availability refresher  Updates to surface water budgets based on TWG feedback  Dry year demands  Median flows  Severity of drought years  HUC8 Level Analysis  Upper Grand example  Groundwater Supply  Groundwater budgets  Recharge estimates  Comparison of withdrawals and recharge 9

Updates to Water Budgets – Dry Year Demands 10

Updates to Water Budgets – Median Flows  Median annual streamflow now included as part of monthly comparisons of supply and demand.  Average ‐ appropriate for analysis of total volume (reservoir supply)  Median – more appropriate for river withdrawals 11

Monthly Comparisons of Supply and Demand Total Supply Average Year Upper Mississippi ‐ Salt In ‐ State Supply Average Year 12

Monthly Comparisons of Supply and Demand Out ‐ of ‐ State and Major River Supply Average Year Upper Mississippi ‐ Salt Total Supply Dry Year 13

Monthly Comparisons of Supply and Demand Potential Supply Gap In ‐ State Supply Dry Year Upper Mississippi ‐ Salt Out ‐ of ‐ State and Major River Supply Dry Year 14

Updated to Water Budgets – Drought Years  How does the driest year of the last 30 years in each basin compare to the 1950s drought years? No. of 1987‐2016 Flow 1950s Dry Flow Gages Dry Year(s) (in/yr) Year (in/yr) HUC4 Basin Upper Miss.‐Salt 3 1989, 2006 1.9 1954, 1956 1.0 Upper Miss.‐Kaskaskia‐Meramec 2 2000, 2012 5.0 1954, 1956 3.5 Lower Miss.‐St. Francis 2 1987, 2012 3.6 1954 3.2 Missouri‐Nishnabotna 2 1988, 2003 1.4 NA NA * Chariton‐Grand 2 2000, 2003 1.3 1956 1.4 Gasconade‐Osage 2 2000, 2006 3.1 1954 3.0 Lower Missouri 3 2006 1.9 1954 0.4 Upper White 2 2000 8.3 1954 7.2 Neosho‐Verdigris 2 2006 2.6 1954, 1956 1.9 NA = streamflow records not available in the 1950 s for the same gages * Chariton ‐ Grand Aug 2017 to Aug 2018 flow is also 1.3 in/yr 15

Chariton ‐ Grand Flow Duration Curve Aug 15, 2017 – Aug 15, 2018 16

July 2018 Average Streamflow Conditions Select Missouri River Gages included on USGS WaterWatch Source: USGS WaterWatch 17

Supply Availability Update ‐ Outline  Water supply availability refresher  Updates to surface water budgets based on TWG feedback  Dry year demands  Median flows  Severity of drought years  HUC8 Level Analysis  Upper Grand example  Groundwater Supply  Groundwater budgets  Recharge estimates  Comparison of withdrawals and recharge 18

Thompson Upper Chariton Upper Grand Lower Chariton Little Chariton HUC8 Watersheds Identified as Lower Grand Candidates for More Detailed Analysis Little Osage 19

HUC8 Water Budgets 20

Missouri State Water Plan Page 6 of 8 Upper Grand Basin Summary Flow Flow‐Duration Curve 5 Duration Upper Grand Flow‐Duration Curve, 95.5 Years of Record Curve 100,000 Demand Exceeds 10,000 75 th Percentile Total Flow 2% of the time 1,501 50 th Percentile Basin Discharge (mgd) 1,000 466 25 th Percentile 112 100 10 mgd (Max Monthly Surface Water Demand is 11 mgd ) 10 Total Flow Flow From Out of State Flow From In State Current Total Average Annual Surface Water Demand 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage of time monthly discharge was equal or lower Note: Thermo demands are not included in surface water demands 21

Missouri State Water Plan Page 2 of 8 Upper Grand Basin Summary HUC8 Annual Surface Water Budget Summary Water ac‐ft/yr in/yr mgd Precipitation (In‐State) 5,588,679 37.28 4,985 Evapotranspiration 1,158,189 7.73 1,033 Budgets Streamflow (from Out‐of‐State) 262,751 1.75 234 Streamflow (from other In‐State HUC8 basin) 0 0.00 0 Streamflow originating in HUC8 1,439,190 9.60 1,284 Total Streamflow 1,701,941 11.35 1,518 Non‐Consumptive Surface Water Withdrawals 1,127 0.01 1.0 Consumptive Surface Water Withdrawals 9,813 0.07 8.8 Total Surface Water Withdrawals 10,940 0.07 10 Summary of Water Demands by Sector Current Demands 2060 Demands Surface Water Withdrawals By Sector ac‐ft/yr in/yr mgd mgd Major Water Systems 4,794 0.03 4.3 4.6 Self‐Supplied Nonresidential 0 0.00 0.0 0.0 Agriculture 5,019 0.03 4.5 6.5 Total Consumptive 9,813 0.07 8.8 11.1 Thermoelectric Power Generation 0 0.00 0.0 0.0 Aquaculture and Wetlands 1,127 0.01 1.0 1.0 Total Non‐consumptive 1,127 0.01 1.0 1.0 Groundwater Withdrawals By Sector 1 ac‐ft/yr in/yr mgd mgd Major Water Systems 3,184 0.02 2.8 2.9 Self‐Supplied Domestic and Minor Systems 729 0.005 0.7 0.4 Self‐Supplied Nonresidential 0 0.00 0.0 0.0 Agriculture 927 0.01 0.8 1.2 Total Consumptive 4,839 0.03 4.3 4.5 Thermoelectric Power Generation 0 0.00 0.0 0.0 Aquaculture and Wetlands 577 0.004 0.5 0.5 Total Non‐consumptive 577 0.00 0.5 0.5 Current Surface Water Withdrawals* Current Groundwater Withdrawals ConsumptiveDemands Major Water Systems 0.5 4.5 Self‐Supplied Domestic and Minor Systems 0.8 Self‐Supplied Nonresidential 1.0 Agriculture 2.8 Non‐ConsumptiveDemands 0.7 Thermoelectric Power Generation 4.3 Aquaculture and Wetlands 22 *Surface Water Demands do not include Self‐Supplied Domestic sector **Chart data labels represent demands in mgd.

Monthly Comparisons Upper Grand (HUC8) of Supply and Demand Total Supply Dry Year Potential Supply Gap 23

Upper Grand Subbasin Public Water Supply Intakes Lakes and lake systems Iowa where recent withdrawals Missouri have equaled or exceeded Active (12) optimum yield 1 Emergency (1) Inactive (7) Harrison Co. Lake Bethany North Lake Bethany South Lake Thompson (serves Bethany) Hamilton Lake Upper (serves Hamilton) Grande 1 North Central Missouri Water Supply Reliability Study – 2016 Final Report , HDR. 24