Welcome A strategic transportation plan connecting communities - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov Welcome A strategic transportation plan connecting communities across North Carolina, focused on creating a more responsive, diverse, and inclusive transportation system for keeping people and freight moving safely and efficiently. 1

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 Agenda Outline 1. 2050 to 2032 Analysis – Differences in Approach, Inputs; COVID Impact 2. 2032 Revenue Forecast(s) Across Futures – Innovative, Globally Connected, Renewed, Unstable Influences 3. 2032 Consensus Revenue Forecast – Needs to Revenue Gap Implications 4. Questions NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 2

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 Multimodal Needs – 2050 vs 2032 Approach Long term priority project needs + Revenue Forecast NCDOT Stated Commitments Local long-range plans + through 2032 Economic growth trends + 10-year project construction schedule + System performance forecasts + 10-year asset management strategy + Highway safety improvements + Routine maintenance + Other multimodal programs + Why 2032? - Biennium legislative budget process Backlog Needs Multimodal Needs Multimodal Needs - Align with NC FIRST through 2018 trend through 2032 trend through 2050 Commission horizon NCDOT Prioritized Needs Unmet prioritized projects in SPOT database + Gap to meet asset state of good repair (MOPAR) + Short fall in other program (ex. Spot Safety) + NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 3

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 Revenue Forecast – Near vs Long Term Approach Assumptions • • Close correlation to NCDOT Cash Model and OSBM Longer transition to EV and driverless vehicle levels assumptions • Less fuel consumption across mixed fleet impacts MFT – Continued steady growth in Motor Fuel Tax (MFT), Highway Use Tax • Smaller federal program; burden shifts to states and local (HUT) collections governments to fund greater share of transportation needs – Quadrennial DMV fee increases • More access and increased use of non-highway options – Federal aid moderates – timing and outlays more uncertain • Mixed statewide truck fleet; dispersed freight movement Forecast level driven by continued NC population growth, Best described within a range – forecast susceptible to other economic outlook, post-COVID recovery near impossible factors to predict (trade policies, politics, X Factors: vehicle sales/ownership; percent shift in trip making global crises, “S” curve disruptions) LONG (30+ YRS) NEAR (10+ YRS) NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 4

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 2032 COVID Impacts ….offsetting trends: • Work from home, staggered hours leads • to less commuters in peak periods, Limited to FY21/22? Recovery signposts? more dispersed travel – Statewide VMT back to pre-COVID levels • Robust e-commerce leads to more local – State/federal stimulus discussions truck circulation • – Less transit use leads to more SOV trips Cusp of multi-year federal reauthorization • Statewide VMT continues to rise tied to • Potential for some permanent travel population, economic stability, more demand changes but also…. recreational travel Source: NCDOT – Transportation Planning Branch 5 NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 Revenue Forecast – Deviation from Near Term Trend Futures Influence Forecast • Sensitivity analysis modeled through User Defined Inputs 0 economic and demand variables – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2030 Trend (Base) 1 Alternative Futures – Population Innovation 2 – Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) Globally Connected – Vehicle Registration/Auto Ownership 3 • Future fleet size, miles per gallon (MPG) Renewed 4 efficiency Unstable 5 • Alternative funding options • High – low ranges by future 6 NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 Futures Influence (billions) • ~ 2x more needs than available revenue by 2032 • Small but meaningful differences between estimates across futures • Yields tied to changes in economic outlook, 2032 Needs system use, demand and revenue sources $118 B • Gap impact from lost purchasing power Globally Connected Renewed Revenue $78B Mobility & Innovative Revenue $76B Modernization Revenue $74B ($84 B) Unstable Revenue $71B Highway Assets ($28 B) Other ($6 B) NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 Source: NC Moves 2050 – Subset Analysis 7

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 2032 Needs vs Revenue INNOVATIVE (billions) Indicators Compared to Business as Usual Forecast Economic/Demand Revenue 2032 Needs 2032 Revenue Under $118 B INNOVATIVE Veh GDP POP VMT Own $84 B ↖ ↖ $44 $56 $74 B B • EV sales increase to a 25% share of light-duty vehicles B • Increase in non-highway mode share in urban areas $74 B (mobility apps and travel options) $62 B • Slight VMT decrease as economic growth is offset by shift to multimodal and virtual/on-demand economy $62 B • Vehicle ownership constant as the strong economy $28 B balances with more multimodal options • Efficient network results from less peak period travel, more connected infrastructure and vehicles $6 B Source: NC Moves 2050 – Subset Analysis NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 8

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 2032 Needs vs Revenue GLOBALLY CONNECTED (billions) Indicators Compared to Business as Usual Forecast Economic/Demand Revenue 2032 Needs 2032 Revenue Under $118 B GLOBALLY CONNECTED Veh GDP POP VMT Own $84 B ↖ ↖ ↖ ↖ $40 $53 B $74 B B • E-commerce drives more freight movement across $78 B multiple modes and trip types • Increase in competition and demand for curb space $65 B • Larger commercial fleet and more diverse mix; more diesel fuel consumption offsets new clean technologies $62 B $28 B • Strong economic conditions drive commercial vehicle ownership and VMT $6 B Source: NC Moves 2050 – Subset Analysis NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 9

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 2032 Needs vs Revenue RENEWED (billions) Indicators Compared to Business as Usual Forecast Economic/Demand Revenue 2032 Needs 2032 Revenue Under $118 B RENEWED Veh GDP POP VMT Own $84 B ↖ $42 $54 $74 B B • Increase in statewide VMT and freight travel from B small town economic activity & population growth $76 B • Vehicle ownership stays steady as urban areas grow $64 B slower and focus on redevelopment while smaller communities pick up services, workers and retirees $62 B • More recreational travel and development around $28 B destinations (tourism bump) $6 B Source: NC Moves 2050 – Subset Analysis NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 10

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 2032 Needs vs Revenue UNSTABLE (billions) Indicators Compared to Business as Usual Forecast Economic/Demand Revenue 2032 Needs 2032 Revenue Under $118 B UNSTABLE Veh GDP POP VMT Own $84 B ↖ $47 $59 $74 B B • Prolonged economic instability , population growth B slowdown and increased travel costs impact vehicle $71 B sales and statewide VMT • Higher share of transportation resource s devoted to $59 B asset management, operational efficiency $62 B • Rise in share of non-highway travel due to an $28 B increasing reliance on transit and/or shared mobility in urban and rural areas $6 B Source: NC Moves 2050 – Subset Analysis NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 11

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 2032 Consensus Revenue Forecast TAKEAWAYS • Consensus revenue forecast reflects mix of all futures to represent diversity of potential conditions, assumptions • Additional sensitivity analysis can reveal further risks or revenue source dependencies associated with one or more “leading” futures 2032 Consensus Revenue Forecast NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 12

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 2032 Needs vs. Revenue Gap (billions) Need average annual revenue increase of $3.3 billion (58% increase) Needs – Revenue Gap: Needs grow $43 billion from ~$80B backlog Inflation Adj. Gap: Needs vs. revenue >$55 billion gap is widening at a rate of nearly $90M per year Cumulative Need: Based on mix of futures built on top of existing plans and programs Cumulative Revenue: Consensus blend with constant Federal sources and state revenue indexed to demand and economic factors 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 13

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 Summary Implications for NC FIRST Multimodal Transportation Needs Transportation Revenue • • Continued economic growth drives Existing sources are generating less growing & diversifying needs revenue relative to the growth in needs • • The projected magnitude of these needs Alternative futures create more risks than is unlikely to change substantially over the opportunities for existing revenue sources next decade (they are more likely to • Alternative futures create opportunities for increase, rather than decrease ) new sustainable revenue sources • Even if the economy grows slower than • Costs increases will outpace revenue anticipated, the scope of the system to growth , further widening the needs versus maintain and operate and the backlog of revenue gap needs will always exceed revenue NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 14

ncmoves.gov ncmoves.gov NC Moves 2050 QUESTIONS NC FIRST Commission 09/25/20 15