Virginia Freight Data Analysis presented to Virginia Freight - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Virginia Freight Data Analysis presented to Virginia Freight - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Virginia Freight Data Analysis presented to Virginia Freight Advisory Committee presented by Alan Meyers Cambridge Systematics, Inc. December 5, 2006 REVISED December 20, 2006 Overview VDOT purchased the Transearch freight dataset

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presented to

Virginia Freight Advisory Committee

presented by

Alan Meyers Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

December 5, 2006 REVISED December 20, 2006

Virginia Freight Data Analysis

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Overview

VDOT purchased the “Transearch” freight dataset Data provides estimates of domestic moves:

  • Truck tons and units, rail tons and units, water tons, air tons
  • Origin-destination pairs at Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

economic area level for non-adjacent regions; at county level for VA, MD, and WV.

  • Modeled “paths” through national networks
  • Current and forecasted future years to 2030

CS analyzed “draft final” version of this dataset

  • Combination of tools
  • Supplemental information on international waterborne
  • “Generic” analysis
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Summary

About 913 million tons of freight (all modes, including international waterborne tonnage) used Virginia’s multimodal freight transportation system in 2004, representing $2.16 trillion. For domestic cargo, Virginia is a “through” state (52% of value; 41% of tonnage in 2004). In 2004, Virginia imported and exported similar amounts of freight by value; Virginia imports comprised a larger share by weight. In 2004, truck was the top tonnage mode (74% of tonnage). Truck was also the top value mode (95%) of value. Hampton Roads is the 6th ranked U.S. maritime freight gateway in terms of value. In 2004, a total of $33.5 billion of international freight (1.5% of all U.S. trade) was processed there. The largest airport in Virginia, Dulles International Airport, handled 303,012 metric tons of freight in 2005. This is 1.3% of all U.S. air cargo and ranks Dulles as the 23rd largest air freight handler in the U.S.

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Base Year by Weight

Total Tonnage by Mode and Direction, 2004

* Note: Water includes the TRANSEARCH 2004 domestic portion, as well as 2003 international waterborne data from the Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE).

Mode Inbound Outbound Internal Through Mode Total Truck 122,559,154 98,413,231 164,223,718 293,653,629 678,849,732 Rail 46,895,284 30,351,239 20,888,653 82,828,762 180,963,938 *Water 18,356,169 29,907,246 4,713,344 n/a 52,976,759 Air 258,946 203,135 7,477 n/a 469,558 TOTAL 188,069,553 158,874,851 189,833,192 376,482,391 913,259,987

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Modal and Directional Splits by Weight

Total Tonnage by Mode and Direction, 2004

Rail 10% Mode Split (tonnage) Tonnage Split (direction) Outbound 15% 0% 20% 6% 74%

Truck Air Rail Water

21% 41% 21% 17%

Inbound Outbound Internal Through

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Truck and Rail by Direction

Total Tonnage by Mode and Direction, 2004

Truck Tons Rail Tons

Mode Inbound Outbound Internal Through Total Truck 122,559,154 98,413,231 164,223,718 293,653,629 678,849,732 % Share 18% 14% 24% 43% 100% Mode Inbound Outbound Internal Through Total Rail 46,895,284 30,351,239 20,888,653 82,828,762 180,963,938 % Share 26% 17% 12% 46% 100%

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Rail Carload and Intermodal by Direction

Total Carload and Intermodal Tonnage and Shares by Direction, 2004

Mode Inbound Outbound Internal Through Total Carload 43,818,599 28,127,817 20,579,757 78,834,758 171,360,931 Intermodal 3,076,685 2,223,422 308,896 3,994,004 9,603,007 Carload 26% 16% 12% 46% 100% Intermodal 32% 23% 3% 42% 100% Rail Tonnage Percentage Share by Direction

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Air and Water by Direction

Total Air and Water Tonnage and Shares by Direction, 2004

Mode Inbound Outbound Internal Through Total Air 258,946 203,135 7,477

  • 469,558

Water 18,356,169 29,907,246 4,713,344

  • 52,976,759

Air 55% 43% 2% 0% 100% Water 35% 57% 9% 0% 100% Water and Air Tonnage Percentage Share by Direction

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Virginia Freight Flows by Direction -- All Modes

2004 Tonnage 2004 Value 17% 21% 41% 21%

Inbound Outbound Internal Through

16% 16% 52% 16%

Inbound Outbound Internal Through

Shares by Tonnage and Value, 2004

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Future Year by Weight

Total Tonnage by Mode and Direction, 2030

Note: International waterborne data from the Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE) does not include forecasts; therefore, only the domestic portion from TRANSEARCH is included in this summary.

Mode Inbound Outbound Internal Through Total Truck 247,070,202 197,696,339 334,687,058 536,533,556 1,315,987,155 Rail 97,267,890 56,167,328 40,209,744 141,631,023 335,275,985 *Water 11,731,630 16,036,431 7,843,941 n/a 35,612,002 Air 680,534 351,450 21,428 n/a 1,053,412 Total 356,750,256 270,251,548 382,762,171 678,164,579 1,687,928,554

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Base and Future Year by Weight

2004 to 2030 Tonnage Growth Rates by Mode

Mode 2004 2030 Absolute Growth % Growth Truck 678,849,732 1,315,987,155 637,137,423 94% Rail 180,963,938 335,275,985 154,312,047 85% *Water 52,976,759 35,612,002 n/a n/a Air 469,558 1,053,412 583,854 124% Total 913,259,987 1,687,928,554 792,033,324 87% Growth in Tonnage by Mode

Note: International waterborne data from the Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE) does not include forecasts; therefore, only the domestic portion from TRANSEARCH is included in the 2030

  • summary. For this reason, growth is not computed for the water mode.
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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Top Rail Commodity Growth 2004 to 2030

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 All Others Farm Products - 01 Petroleum or Coal Products - 29 Pulp, Paper or Allied Products - 26 Food or Kindred Products - 20 Chemicals or Allied Products - 28 Clay, Concrete, Glass or Stone - 32

  • Misc. Mixed Shipments - 46

Waste or Scrap Materials - 40 Nonmetallic Minerals - 14 Coal - 11

2030 2004

Millions of Tons

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Top Truck Commodity Growth 2004 to 2030

50 100 150 200 250 All Others Primary Metal Products - 33 Transportation Equipment - 37 Pulp, Paper or Allied Products - 26 Chemicals or Allied Products - 28 Petroleum or Coal Products - 29 Food or Kindred Products - 20 Lumber or Wood Products - 24 Clay, Concrete, Glass or Stone - 32 Secondary Traffic - 50 Nonmetallic Minerals - 14

2030 2004

Millions of Tons

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Through Movements by Rail

Origin Destination Rail Tons 2004 Rail Tons 2030 Absolute Growth % Growth

Lexington, KY Raleigh, NC 6,615,967 7,110,104 494,138 7% Charleston, WV Greensboro, NC 3,649,616 6,021,521 2,371,905 65% Lexington, KY Charleston, SC 3,350,424 5,495,372 2,144,948 64% Lexington, KY Charlotte, NC 2,915,811 5,218,372 2,302,561 79% Charleston, WV Raleigh, NC 2,886,053 3,306,138 420,085 15% Lexington, KY Orlando, FL 2,567,119 2,455,074 (112,045)

  • 4%

Lexington, KY Greensboro, NC 2,371,262 8,304,987 5,933,725 250% Charleston, WV Hickory, NC 2,054,104 4,172,254 2,118,150 103% Lexington, KY Knoxville, TN 2,013,993 5,543,828 3,529,835 175% Lexington, KY Macon, GA 1,878,819 3,739,027 1,860,208 99%

Tonnage and Growth in the Top Origin and Destination Regions, 2004 and 2030

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Through Movements by Truck

Tonnage and Growth in the Top Origin and Destination Regions, 2004 and 2030

Origin Destination Truck Tons 2004 Truck Tons 2030 Absolute Growth % Growth

New Orleans, LA New York, NY 7,306,039 10,909,628 3,603,589 49% Baton Rouge, LA New York, NY 6,678,563 6,912,555 233,992 4% Houston, TX New York, NY 5,243,170 8,002,842 2,759,672 53% Orlando, FL New York, NY 3,674,952 5,017,213 1,342,261 37% Atlanta, GA New York, NY 3,635,044 6,656,429 3,021,385 83% Raleigh, NC New York, NY 2,853,887 5,969,709 3,115,822 109% Greensboro, NC Louisville, KY 2,689,631 5,073,974 2,384,343 89% Houston TX Philadelphia, PA 2,562,390 3,649,730 1,087,340 42% Savannah, GA New York, NY 2,518,120 4,859,385 2,341,265 93% Jacksonville, FL New York, NY 2,512,803 4,133,633 1,620,830 65%

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Inbound Truck Movements:

Top Origin Regions by Weight, 2004

(1) New York (5) Philadelphia (3) Cleveland (10) Chicago (6) Charleston (9) Greenville (2) Raleigh (7) Greensboro (4) Charlotte (8) Baton Rouge

Top Inbound Trading Partners:

1 – New York, NY 2 – Raleigh, NC 3 – Cleveland, OH 4 – Charlotte, NC 5 – Philadelphia, PA 6 – Charleston, WV 7 – Greensboro, NC 8 – Baton Rouge, LA 9 – Greenville, NC 10- Chicago, IL

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Outbound Truck Movements:

Top Destination Regions by Weight, 2004

4

Top Outbound Trading Partners:

1 – New York, NY 2 – Philadelphia, PA 3 – Greensboro, NC 4 – District of Columbia 5 – Charlotte, NC 6 – Montgomery Cty, MD 7 – Hickory, NC 8 – Raleigh, NC 9 – Charleston, WV 10 – Prince George’s County, MD

6 2 1 3 5 7 8 9 10

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Internal Virginia Truck Movements:

Top Intrastate Moves By Weight, 2004

1

Top Intrastate Trading Partners: 1 – Charles City County to Fairfax County 2 – Frederick County to Loudoun County 3 – Roanoke County to Roanoke City 4 – Norfolk City to Norfolk City 5 – Harrisonburg City to Fairfax County 6 – Accomack County to Fairfax County 7 - Fairfax County to Fairfax County 8 – Culpeper County to Prince William County 9 – Russell County to Washington County 10 – Frederick County to Frederick County

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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Top Intrastate Trading Partners: 1 - Buchanan County to Norfolk City 2 - Wise County to Norfolk City 3 - Wise County to Halifax County 4 - Brunswick County to Norfolk City 5 – Prince William County to Fairfax County 6 – Tazewell County to Norfolk City 7 – Prince William County to Alexandria City 8 – Russell County to Norfolk City 9 – Dickenson County to Newport News City 10 – Hanover County to Newport News City

Internal Virginia Rail Movements:

Top Intrastate Moves By Weight, 2004

1 2 3 6 8 9 4 10 5 7

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Inbound Truck Movements:

Top Destination Counties by Weight, 2004

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Inbound Truck Movement Growth:

Top Destination Counties by Weight, 2030

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Outbound Truck Movements:

Top Origin Counties by Weight, 2004

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Outbound Truck Movement Growth:

Top Origin Counties by Weight, 2030

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Rail Movements by Weight:

All Directions (In + Out + Intra + Through), 2004

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Rail Movements by Weight:

All Directions (In + Out + Intra + Through), 2030

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Truck Movements by Weight:

All Directions (In + Out + Intra + Through), 2004

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Truck Movements by Weight:

All Directions (In + Out + Intra + Through), 2030

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Preliminary Findings

By weight:

  • Through moves comprised the largest share– 41%– in the

base year;

  • Inbound and internal moves were proportionate– measuring

21%; and

  • Outbound moves made up the smallest share of 17%.

By value:

  • Through moves were again #1, accounting for 52% of total

value;

  • Inbound, Outbound and Internal moves comprised equal

shares– measuring 16% each.

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Preliminary Findings Continued…

By Mode:

  • In the base year, Trucks comprised 74% of total tonnage;

Rail was 20%; Water was 6%; and Air was <1%.

  • The largest move by tonnage and value— through flows—

accounted for 42% of total rail tonnage and 41% of total truck tonnage by direction.

  • The Trucking mode is projected to grow by 94% between

2004 and 2030, while 85% growth is projected for Rail.

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Preliminary Findings Continued…

By Commodity:

  • Rail top commodities include:

− Coal (STCC 11)— projected increase of 113% by 2030; − Nonmetallic Minerals (STCC 14)— projected increase of 42%; − Waste or Scrap Materials (STCC 40)— projected increase of 187%; − Miscellaneous Mixed Shipments (STCC 46)— projected increase of 195%; and − Clay/Concrete (STCC 32)— projected increase of 151%.

  • Truck top commodities include:

− Nonmetallic Minerals (STCC 14)— projected increase of 63%; − Secondary Traffic (STCC 50)— projected increase of 217%

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Commodity Flow Analysis Summary:

Preliminary Findings Continued…

− Clay/ Concrete— projected increase of 121%; and − Lumber or Wood Products (STCC 50)— projected increase of 32%.

By Trading Partner:

  • By weight, New York, NY; Raleigh, NC; and Cleveland, Ohio

are the top sending regions of freight by truck to Virginia.

  • Virginia, in turn, sends most of its freight tonnage by truck

to New York, NY; Philadelphia, PA; and Greensboro, NC.

  • The top intrastate flows by truck appear to be localized and

short trip in nature (e.g. within Norfolk City and Fredericksburg County), involving Nonmetallic Minerals.

  • The top intrastate flows by rail are east-west, mostly Coal.
  • Fairfax County is the top destination county for imports by

truck tons, while Norfolk City is # 1 for exports.

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Next Steps

Receive final Transearch dataset

  • Validated against other national data
  • Reflecting effect of VPA growth on domestic truck and rail

traffic

More detailed analysis

  • Routes and commodities
  • Units and values
  • Address key policy questions – through state corridors,

port-to-warehouse connectivity, etc.

  • Link to economic activity – what moves, routes, and modes

are most critical to what sectors of Virginia’s economy?