Update on Indicator work A&D and an update from harbour porpoise - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Update on Indicator work A&D and an update from harbour porpoise - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 28, 2024 438 likes •739 views

Update on Indicator work A&D and an update from harbour porpoise surveys in Germany SEAL 12 Tallinn, Estonia me of a coffe coffee infused drafting Out utcome ng session by the he A&D A&D indi dicator grou oup on n Tu Tues

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SLIDE 1

Update on Indicator work A&D

SEAL 12 Tallinn, Estonia

…and an update from harbour porpoise surveys in Germany

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SLIDE 2

Out utcome me of a coffe

coffee infused drafting

ng session by the he A&D A&D indi dicator grou

  • up on

n Tu Tues esday

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SLIDE 3

1) 1) Prune ne the he old A&D A&D indi dicator and nd create a new ew indi dicator 2) 2) Abu bund ndance is is a l lar arge scale, low frequ quency, h high l lag indi dicator 3) 3) Tr Trends ds i in den ensity is is a sma mall scale, high gh frequ quency, , low lag g indi dicator

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SLIDE 4

Divide Divide and and Enco Encour urage ge

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SLIDE 5

Abunda ndanc nce e Indica

Indicator

  • r
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SLIDE 6

As Assessment Un Unit it Sc Scale le 2

1. . Acous

  • ustic

ic s survey eys for t the B e Balt ltic ic proper

  • per

2. . DS / / Acous

  • ustic

ic fo for wester ern B n Balt ltic ic Se Sea 3. . poole

  • led su

sub basins ins as as spat atial ial scale ale 4. . every ry 6 6 years rs

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SLIDE 7

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.06.031

Very obviously a SAMBAH Map

Carlén et al. 2018: Basin-scale distribution of harbour porpoises in the Baltic Sea provides basis for effective conservation actions. Biological Conservation, 226(June), 42–53.

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SLIDE 8

Viquerat et al. 2014: Abundance

  • f harbour porpoises (Phocoena

phocoena) in the western Baltic, Belt Seas and Kattegat. Marine Biology, 161(4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227

  • 013-2374-6

MiniSCANS

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-013-2374-6

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SLIDE 9

https://synergy.st-andrews.ac.uk/scans3/

Block Density CV Abundance CL low CL high 1 1.33 0.472 31,249 6,111 159,786 2 1.04 0.304 42,324 23,368 76,658 Total 1.15 0.285 73,573 39,383 137,443

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SLIDE 10 Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation

Trends in density and distributi

  • n

Indicator

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SLIDE 11 Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation

Wi Will i ind ndicat ate shor short t ter erm changes changes at at a a loca

  • cal sca

scale Will l pr provi

  • vide inf

nfor

  • rmat

ation

  • n
  • n
  • n di

dist stribu bution

  • n shifts

fts with ithin in popul populat ation bor border ders Will l com commit count countries es to to under undertak ake moni

  • nitor
  • ring

ng effo fforts ts

The new Indicator

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SLIDE 12 Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation

Will be be based on based on densi density / change change in n densi density at at cr critical si sites es Will ll i identify ify critic ical s l site tes based on based on exper expert opi

  • pinion
  • n

Whi hich can h can al also be

  • be

bot bottlen enec ecks et etc. c.

The new Indicator

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SLIDE 13 Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation

Bedeutung für zukünftige internationale Monitoringbestrebungen

Asses esment ent Uni Unit Sca Scale

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SLIDE 14

Moni

  • nitor
  • ring

ng Germany

Germany

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SLIDE 15

Survey areas 2002 - 2016

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SLIDE 16

Area Abundance [Animals] Density [Animals /km²] Average group size [Animals/ group] CV Effort [km] Total 3,834 (2,237 – 6,796) 0.2303 (0.1344 – 0.4082) 1.12 0.2779 2,457 E 820 (257 – 1,750) 0.1738 (0.0545 – 0.3708) 1.16 0.4390 745 FE 620 (323 – 1,156) 0.2436 (0.1269 – 0.4545) 1.21 0.3417 411 FW 893 (347 – 1,916) 0.1904 (0.0741 – 0.4088) 1.17 0.4169 710 GW 1,501 (750 – 2,713) 0.3198 (0.1598 – 0.5778) 1.04 0.3176 592

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SLIDE 17

Campaigns:

  • 2002-2006
  • 2008
  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2013
  • 2015

Summer Averages

https://geodienste.bfn.de/schweinswalverbreitung

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SLIDE 18

Survey areas 2017 - 2021

I – westliche Ostsee (Kieler Förde) J – Fehmarn K – Pommersche Bucht West L – Pommersche Bucht Ost M – Greifswalder Bodden N – Oderbank

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SLIDE 19

16.10.2018 19

19

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SLIDE 20

Moni nitor toring ngGu

Guid idelin lines es

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SLIDE 21

Line transect sampling

  • Ermöglicht effektive Abdeckung grosser Gebiete in kurzer Zeit
  • Möglich von unterschiedlichen Plattformen (Schiff, Flugzeug)
  • Standardisiert durch die international etablierte SCANS Methodik
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SLIDE 22

Line transect distance sampling

  • Konstante Bewegung entlang des Transekts
  • Messung rechtwinkliger Distanzen der

Sichtungen zum Transekt über Winkel α und konstante Flughöhe h

  • Konzentration auf Tiere unmittelbar auf der

Linie

h d α

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SLIDE 23

Detectionfunction

Distanzklassen # Sichtungen

w (Datenbeschnitt)

→ Variiert je nach

Bedingungen auf dem Transekt μ = effektive Streifenbreite

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SLIDE 24

Estimating the abundance

v m m g g v v v

s n n L A N ×         + × = µ µ ˆ ˆ ˆ

Gesamtfläche des Untersuchungsgebiets Transektstrecke, die on effort beflogen wurde Anzahl der Sichtungen unter guten und moderaten Bedingungen effektive Streifenbreite μ für gute und moderate Bedingungen Mittlere beobachtete Gruppengröße

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SLIDE 25

Tr Trends ends Bayes

Bayes

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SLIDE 26

Trending and bending

  • Apparently densities

are going down in the German Baltic Sea

  • But this is not yet a

trend

Dichte

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SLIDE 27

Trending and bending

Proper Bayesian analysis of an anonymous survey area in Germany, not yet finished (therefore anonymised)

  • 6.7% (frequentist analysis) versus
  • 0.9% (baysesian analysis)
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SLIDE 28

Trending and bending

Kruschke JK, Liddell TM. The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective. Psychon Bull Rev. 2017. doi: 10.3758/s13423-016-1221-4. PubMed PMID: 28176294.