Update on Indicator work A&D …and an update from harbour porpoise surveys in Germany SEAL 12 Tallinn, Estonia
me of a coffe coffee infused drafting Out utcome ng session by the he A&D A&D indi dicator grou oup on n Tu Tues esday
1) 1) Prune ne the he old A&D A&D indi dicator and nd create a new ew indi dicator 2) 2) Abu bund ndance is is a l lar arge scale, low frequ quency, h high l lag indi dicator 3) 3) Tr Trends ds i in den ensity is is a sma mall scale, high gh frequ quency, , low lag g indi dicator
Divide Divide and and Enco Encour urage ge
e Indica Indicator or Abunda ndanc nce
le 2 As Assessment Un Unit it Sc Scale 1. . Acous oustic ic s survey eys for t the B e Balt ltic ic proper oper 2. . DS / / Acous oustic ic fo for wester ern B n Balt ltic ic Se Sea 3. . poole oled su sub basins ins as as spat atial ial scale ale 4. . every ry 6 6 years rs
Very obviously a SAMBAH Map Carlén et al. 2018: Basin-scale distribution of harbour porpoises in the Baltic Sea provides basis for effective conservation actions. Biological Conservation, 226(June), 42–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.06.031
Mini SCANS Viquerat et al. 2014: Abundance of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in the western Baltic, Belt Seas and Kattegat. Marine Biology, 161(4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227 -013-2374-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-013-2374-6
Block Density CV Abundance CL low CL high 1 1.33 0.472 31,249 6,111 159,786 2 1.04 0.304 42,324 23,368 76,658 Total 1.15 0.285 73,573 39,383 137,443 https://synergy.st-andrews.ac.uk/scans3/
Indicator Trends in density and distributi on Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation
The new Indicator Wi Will i ind ndicat ate shor short t ter erm changes changes at at a a loca ocal sca scale Will l pr provi ovide inf nfor ormat ation on on on di dist stribu bution on shifts fts with ithin in popul populat ation bor border ders Will l com commit count countries es to to under undertak ake moni onitor oring ng effo fforts ts Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation
The new Indicator Will be be based on based on densi density / change change in n densi density at at cr critical si sites es Will ll i identify ify critic ical s l site tes based on based on exper expert opi opinion on Whi hich can h can al also be o be bot bottlen enec ecks et etc. c. Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation
Bedeutung für zukünftige internationale Monitoringbestrebungen Scale esment ent Unit Sca Asses Uni Stiftung Tierärztliche Hochschule Hannover University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Foundation
ng Germany Germany Moni onitor oring
Survey areas 2002 - 2016
Abundance Density Average group size Effort Area CV [Animals] [Animals /km²] [Animals/ group] [km] 3,834 (2,237 – 0.2303 (0.1344 – Total 1.12 0.2779 2,457 6,796) 0.4082) 0.1738 (0.0545 – E 820 (257 – 1,750) 1.16 0.4390 745 0.3708) 0.2436 (0.1269 – FE 620 (323 – 1,156) 1.21 0.3417 411 0.4545) 0.1904 (0.0741 – FW 893 (347 – 1,916) 1.17 0.4169 710 0.4088) 1,501 (750 – 0.3198 (0.1598 – GW 1.04 0.3176 592 2,713) 0.5778)
Summer Averages Campaigns : 2002-2006 • 2008 • 2010 • • 2011 2013 • 2015 • https://geodienste.bfn.de/schweinswalverbreitung
Survey areas 2017 - 2021 I – westliche Ostsee (Kieler Förde) J – Fehmarn K – Pommersche Bucht West L – Pommersche Bucht Ost M – Greifswalder Bodden N – Oderbank
19 16.10.2018 19
ng Gu Guid idelin lines es Moni nitor toring
Line transect sampling Ermöglicht effektive Abdeckung grosser Gebiete in kurzer Zeit Möglich von unterschiedlichen Plattformen (Schiff, Flugzeug) Standardisiert durch die international etablierte SCANS Methodik
Line transect distance sampling • Konstante Bewegung entlang des Transekts • Messung rechtwinkliger Distanzen der α h Sichtungen zum Transekt über Winkel α und d konstante Flughöhe h • Konzentration auf Tiere unmittelbar auf der Linie
Detectionfunction μ = effektive Streifenbreite → Variiert je nach Bedingungen auf dem Transekt # Sichtungen w (Datenbeschnitt) Distanzklassen
Estimating the abundance Gesamtfläche des Anzahl der Sichtungen unter g uten Untersuchungsgebiets und m oderaten Bedingungen n A n Mittlere = × + × ˆ g v m N s beobachtete µ µ v v ˆ ˆ L Gruppengröße v g m Transektstrecke, die on effektive Streifenbreite μ für g ute und effort beflogen wurde m oderate Bedingungen
ends Bayes Bayes Tr Trends
Trending and bending • Apparently densities are going down in the German Baltic Sea • But this is not yet a trend Dichte
Trending and bending Proper Bayesian analysis of an anonymous survey area in Germany, not yet finished (therefore anonymised) -6.7% (frequentist analysis) versus -0.9% (baysesian analysis)
Trending and bending Kruschke JK, Liddell TM. The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective. Psychon Bull Rev. 2017. doi: 10.3758/s13423-016-1221-4. PubMed PMID: 28176294.
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