University of Twente technological research Analysis of future - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jan 24, 2023 29 likes •262 views

University of Twente technological research Analysis of future development of renewable energy technologies Research question What are the expectations and perceived vulnerabilities in authorative scenarios and academic literature regarding

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University of Twente technological research

Analysis of future development of renewable energy technologies

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Research question

 What are the expectations and perceived vulnerabilities in

authorative scenarios and academic literature regarding the development of renewable energy technologies in the period 2020 – 2050?

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Authoritive groups

 International Energy Agency (IEA)  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

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IEA scenarios

 Current policies, 40%

renewables by 2050

 2-Degrees, 76%

renewables by 2050

 New policies, 53%

by 2050

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Wind Energy

 Wind will be highest share in renewables  Current policies: 16,0%  2-Degrees: 34,4%  New policies: 22,6%  Current efficiency is ca. 50%

, maximum theoretical efficiency is 59%

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Wind Turbine size

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Solar PV

 Expected share of PV in Europe is small  Current policies: 3,5%  2-Degrees: 7,4%  New policies: 4,9%  Matured technology, still lot of room for improvement,

price per kWh

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PV is becoming cheap

 Costs of silicon PV will decrease 19-36%

by 2025 and 40- 72% by 2050.

 New materials are being developed  Organic PV (12%

efficiency, $30/ m2)

 Currently j ust as expensive as offshore wind

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Concentrated Solar Power



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Bioenergy

 2nd generation biofuels will add to an increased share  Current policies: 5,8%

by 2050

 2-Degrees: 9,4%

by 2050

 New policies: 6,6%

by 2050

 Not location specific

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Hydropower

 Not expected to develop further in the EU  Very specific locations  Current policies: 12,9%

by 2050

 2-Degrees: 18%

by 2050

 New policies: 15,2%

by 2050

 Improved life-cycle of components

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Geothermal

 Uses earth’s interior heat by drilling and heating water  Current policies: 0,57%

by 2050

 2-Degrees: 1,64%

by 2050

 New policies: 0,9%

by 2050

 No significant changes in costs expected

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Ocean Energy

 Will not play a significant role in the energy transition

until at least 2030

 Not yet commercialized  Hardly any literature on this subj ect available

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Energy efficiency

 Converting energy  Energy loss in chain  High Temperature S

uperconductors (HTS ) can increase efficiency to 99.9%

 Predictions very dependent on innovations in technologies

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Energy storage

 Very important for energy transition  S

hare of renewables can increase only with energy storage technologies.

 Pumped Hydro S

torage is currently largest share of storage (99% )

 Battery systems are promising  S

torage facilitates effective use of energy produced by renewable sources

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Risks and uncertainties

 Future is uncertain  Focus on production, while storage is necessary  Full dependence on technology instead of politics  Neglected infrastructure