United States Indonesia Energy Investment Roundtable Natural Gas - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
United States Indonesia Energy Investment Roundtable Natural Gas - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
United States Indonesia Energy Investment Roundtable Natural Gas Pricing and Policy February 6, 2012 Jim Taylor President IPA / ConocoPhillips Indonesia CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE
The following presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E
- f the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. You can identify our forward-
looking statements by words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “believes,” “estimates,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements relating to ConocoPhillips’ operations are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about ConocoPhillips and the petroleum industry in general on the date these presentations were given. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Further, certain forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially include, but are not limited to, crude oil and natural gas prices; refining and marketing margins; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects due to operating hazards, drilling risks, and the inherent uncertainties in interpreting engineering data relating to underground accumulations of oil and gas; unsuccessful exploratory drilling activities; lack of exploration success; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; potential failure of new products to achieve acceptance in the market; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing or modifying company manufacturing or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, transporting or refining synthetic crude oil; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations; potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2009. ConocoPhillips is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such
- bligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose
- nly proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under
existing economic and operating conditions. We may use certain terms in this presentation such as “oil/gas resources,” “oil in place,” “recoverable bitumen,” “exploitable bitumen in place,” and “bitumen in place” that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. The term “reserves,” as used in this presentation, includes proved reserves from Syncrude oil sands operations in Canada which are currently reported separately as mining operations in our SEC reports. Under amendments to the SEC rules, mining oil sands reserves will no longer be reported separately. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995
40 45 50 55 60 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Bcf / day $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $ / mmBtu
US Lower 48 Natural Gas Production
2
15 years of growth enabled by:
- Market based pricing
- Tax incentives for tight gas
and Unconventional CBM Technology innovated from 1980’s incentives helped drive further shale success
Source: US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Government ceilings on gas pricing reduced supply
Enabliing Policy and Regulations
- Deregulating Prices
- Incentives for unconventional gas
80 60 40 20
US Natural Gas Supply Sources
Billion cubic feet per day
U.S Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure
4
Over 300,000 miles of Pipelines
US Infrastructure Growth
Source: INGAA Foundation, Inc
40 45 50 55 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Daily Prod. (BCF)
The "Unconventional Reservoir" Revolution: Impact on the North American Natural Gas Market
Rapid supply growth Supply greater than demand Natural gas price collapse LNG imports no longer needed Arctic pipelines no longer needed Increase in exports to Mexico LNG exports being considered >> share of electric gen. market Chemical industry rejuvenation
40 45 50 55 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Daily Prod. (BCF)
U.S. Natural Gas Production
Y2K Predictions Artist Drawing of LNG Import Terminal
6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Barrels Oil Per Day (Thousands)
Unconventional Reservoirs Produce Liquids Also
U.S. = World’s Largest Producer (11,300 MBOPD Peak Rate)
- Uncon. Res.2 (+600)
Deep Water (+100)
1 Data from BP 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy; Oil includes condensate & NGLs; split between Unconv. Res. and Deep Water is approximate 2 “Uncon. Res.” = Unconventional Reservoirs, which include shale and carbonate source rocks, CBM and ultra-tight sandstones and carbonates
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Drilling Rig Count
U.S. Drilling Fleet Deployment in Response to the "Liquids from Unconventional Reservoirs"
- More rigs are drilling for oil than gas for first time
since early 1990’s
- Over 1,000 rigs are drilling for oil; highest number in over
25 years
- Additional rigs being deployed for oil drilling at a rapid pace
$150 per barrel oil Liquids from Unconventional Reservoirs Breakthrough
Gas Wells Oil Wells
From Baker Hughes’ website
Gas Infrastructure in Indonesia
PHILIPPINES
SOUTH CHINA SEA
Philippines Indonesia
KAMPUCHEA VIETNAM THAILAND
Medan Tanjungkarang Palembang Bengkulu Padang Kuala Lumpur M A L A C C A S T R A I T Yogyakarta Ujungpandang Palu JayapuraPAPUA SULAWESI B A N D A S E A A R A F U R A S E A C E L E B E S S E A
Kuching Palangkaraya BanjarmasinBRUNEI DARUSALAM
MAKASSAR STRAITJ A V A S E A K A L I M A N T A N SARAWAK
Malaysia Indonesia SemarangS U M A T R A
Bandung Jambi 6° S 12° S 0° 12° N 6°N Banda Aceh 112° E 100° E 106° EI N D I A N O C E A N
118° E 124° E 130° E 136° ESINGAPORE
Pontianak Kendari Kupang Mataram Denpasar Manado AmbonSABAH
Toba Lake DiliTIMOR
Philippines MalaysiaTHAILAND HALMAHERA LOMBOK BATAM BANGKA MADURA
Masela FLNG Donggi LNG Tangguh LNG Bontang LNG Arun LNG
PRINCIPAL INDUSTRY ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED
- GR NO. 79/2010 ON COST RECOVERY AND INCOME TAX
- Opposes existing PSCs and creates uncertainty of future PSCs
- AMENDMENT TO LAW NO.22/2011 ON OIL AND GAS
- Minimal changes required
- APPROVAL AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
- Move from managing costs to managing production
- MARKET BASED GAS PRICING NEEDED TO BE COMPETITIVE
- To ensure investment is made to explore for and develop gas the price needs to be competitive
- LICENSE EXTENSIONS NEED TO BE TRANSPARENT AND EARLY
- Delays in extension process put investment and production
- BANK INDONESIA REGULATION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE
PROCEEDS
- PSC rights should be preserved
CONCLUSIONS
INDONESIA HAS STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH OF 6.5% in 2011
- Economy’s energy needs are growing and more oil and gas are needed
- Transitioning from revenue generator to economic enabler will take time
HYDROCARBON PRODUCTION HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT
- Mature fields are declining
- New opportunities are in more challenging areas (remote, offshore, East)
- Unconventional developments are untested and require a lot of wells, technology and
infrastructure
EXPLORATION INVESTMENT AND PRODUCTION HAS DECLINED
- Fiscal policies need to be competitive to attract necessary investment
MANAGING COST RECOVERY IS NOT SUPPORTING PRODUCTION INCREASES MARKET BASED PRICING, SUPPORTING REGULATIONS AND INCENTIVES HAS
GENERATED SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT AND NEW SUPPLIES OF NATURAL GAS AND LIQUIDS PRODUCTION IN THE US
THE CREATION OF NEW SUPPLIES OF OIL AND GAS CAN BENEFIT ECONOMIC
GROWTH & THE PEOPLE OF INDONESIA
TERIMA KASIH
Lower‐48 Natural Gas Production
13
Source: US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
U.S Natural Gas Storage Infrastructure
14
Over 4 Trillon Cubic Feet of Working Gas Storage Capability
LNG Indonesia
Malaysia IndonesiaPHILIPPINES
SOUTH CHINA SEA
Philippines Indonesia
KAMPUCHEA VIETNAM THAILAND
Medan Tanjungkarang Palembang Bengkulu Padang Kuala Lumpur M A L A C C A S T R A I T Yogyakarta Ujungpandang Palu JayapuraPAPUA SULAWESI B A N D A S E A A R A F U R A S E A C E L E B E S S E A
Kuching Palangkaraya BanjarmasinBRUNEI DARUSALAM
MAKASSAR STRAITJ A V A S E A K A L I M A N T A N SARAWAK
Malaysia Indonesia SemarangS U M A T R A
Bandung Jambi 6° S 12° S 0° 12° N 6°N Banda Aceh 112° E 100° E 106° EI N D I A N O C E A N
118° E 124° E 130° E 136° ESINGAPORE
Pontianak Kendari Kupang Mataram Denpasar Manado AmbonSABAH
Toba LakeLOCATI ON MAP
P A C I F I C O C E A N
J A V A EAST TIMOR
FLORES SUMBA SUMBAWA BALI BURU SERAM TANIMBAR
Samarinda BalikpapanNATUNA
Surabaya Bandar Seri Begawan Vietnam MalaysiaMLAYSIA Indonesia Papua New Guinea
500
KM
I NDONESI A
ACREAGE
DiliTIMOR
Philippines MalaysiaTHAILAND HALMAHERA LOMBOK BATAM BANGKA MADURA
COPI Acreage LNG PLANT
PakanbaruNila PSC South China Sea "B" PSC (Ext) South Jambi PSC Corridor PSC Block 'A' PSC Corridor TAC Pangkah PSC Sakakemang JOB Banyumas PSC Ketapang PSC Warim PSC
Jakarta12/02/2004 S:\TIS\.........\DESIGNER\GENERAL\COPI_ACREAGE.DSF (P3)
Tangguh LNG Plant Donggi LNG Plant Bontang LNG Plant Natuna LNG Plant Masela LNG Plant Arun LNG Plant
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Percentage of Total Rigs (%)
Utilization of the U.S. Rig Fleet: Gas versus Oil
- More rigs drilling for oil than gas for first time since early 1990’s
- Fleet switched from 90% gas / 10% oil in 2005, to 54% oil / 46% gas today
$150 per barrel oil Liquids from Unconventional Reservoirs Breakthrough
Gas Wells Oil Wells
From Baker Hughes’ website