Unequal Growth/Unequal Outcomes Chancellor Rebecca Blank University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Unequal Growth/Unequal Outcomes

Chancellor Rebecca Blank University of Wisconsin–Madison November 11, 2018 APLU Annual meeting

Economic growth is important

Annual Real GDP Growth Rates

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, based on chained (2012) dollars

3.7 3.6 3.5 1.6 2.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-18 Annual Growth Rate (%)

No single institution in our nation is more important to long-term economic growth than the public research university

In recent decades, economic growth has translated into income growth only among those in the top half of the income distribution

Mean Household Income Within Quintiles

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 1968 to 2018 Annual Social and Economic Supplements 2018 Dollars

Top 5 Percent Highest 20% 60% to 80% 40% to 60% 20% to 40% Bottom 20%

$13,775 $37,293 $63,572 $101,570 $233,895 $416,520 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979

How do we assure more workers can benefit from economic growth?

• 1. Improve jobs
• 2. Provide greater economic

support to low-wage workers

• 3. Improve workers/Increase skill

levels

Those who have benefited from economic growth are primarily those with college degrees

Male Median Cumulative Earnings by Birth Cohort and Education, Ages 43-47

High School Drop Out High School Degree Some College College Degree $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 1960-64 Advanced Degree

Source: Educational Attainment and Earnings Inequality Among US-Born Men, Urban Institute

Male Median Cumulative Earnings by Birth Cohort and Education, Ages 43-47

High School Drop Out High School Degree Some College College Degree $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 1940-44 1960-64

Source: Educational Attainment and Earnings Inequality Among US-Born Men, Urban Institute

Advanced Degree

If we raise skills by providing post- high school education to more citizens, we can stimulate greater economic growth, with broader benefits Even students on the margin benefit from higher education

The need to increase skills is even more important when you look at the inequalities in access and completion of higher education by group

4% 8% 15% 42% 59% 55% 10% 10% 10% 33% 18% 17% 10% 5% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% White Black Hispanic

Inequality in Educational Achievement, 2018 Percentage of the Population 25-29 Years Old

Advanced Degree No High School Degree High School Degree Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics

Key point #1: It’s largely not initial access, but completion that is the

• problem. 90% of high school grads

start some post-high school training.

Key point #2: This is largely about completion at public schools. The elite privates are pretty irrelevant.

Total Undergraduate Fall Enrollment All Degree-Granting Institutions 2016

Private, For- Profit 78% 17% 5% Private, Nonprofit Public

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics

Getting students to complete and graduate is not a huge mystery. Four major components:

• Affordability
• Teaching/curriculum
• Advising/counseling
• Support of family/friends

Affordability

• Necessary but not sufficient
• Linked to time to completion
• Simple messaging matters

Side comment on Student Debt

• Not a global problem; focused in for-

profit & 2-yr schools

• Greatest defaults among those with

less debt

• 4-year publics have seen only

modest debt increases Economics comment: Debt is a good thing when used correctly!

Teaching/Curriculum

• We do a bad job of teacher

training and support

• Coherent curriculum matters,

which must be well communicated

Advising/Mentoring

• Expect four year completion
• Target extra help to low income/first

gen students

• Use new technologies to coach
• Establish strong transfer programs

from 2-year schools

• Don’t forget career advising

Budget cuts and public attacks on higher education are not helpful in getting any of this done.

If we want the U.S. to thrive in the decades ahead we need to support public institutions of higher education and they need to be accountable for student completion

24

THANK YOU.