Understanding the impact of Covid-19 in Tower Hamlets – a summary 1. Mortality & physical health 9. Domestic abuse 2. Mental health 10. Crime & ASB 3. Social care 11. Substance misuse 4. Deprivation & employment 12. Education & learning 5. Business 13. Transport & air quality Joanne Starkie, 6. Community & voluntary sector 14. Community cohesion & involvement Head of Strategy and Policy – Health, 7. Homelessness & rough sleeping 15. LBTH workforce Adult and Community Services 8. Safeguarding adults & children June – July 2020
Methodology 1. Identified 15 issues felt to be most affected by Covid-19 2. Full impact assessment analyses the impact Covid has had on each issue: Across the UK • In Tower Hamlets • On any groups in our communities • Headline results from resident survey • 3. Predicted the potential impact of Covid on each issue in future: Challenges • “ We are not all in the same boat. Opportunities • We are in the same storm” …over next 12 months & longer -term
Mortality, physical health, mental health, social care Significant number of Covid-19 deaths & infections • • More living in poorer health • Reduced emergency hospital admissions a concern Increase in health inequalities • Some NHS services paused, many remodelled 20-30% increase in demand in mental health services • • • Problems getting essential supplies • Longer-term mental health impacts Healthy lifestyles & wider determinants Increased demand & cost pressures in social care • • • Mental health issues already high in LBTH Impacts include stress, anxiety, loneliness, grief, PTSD • • Impact on existing MH service users Changing demand for MH support • • BAU in health & care will start to resume Capitalise on interest in staying healthy • • Adult social care demand increased but manageable Improve health through active travel • Cost pressures in the system • • Opportunity to do more virtually/remotely • Big impact on care homes, service users, families & Raised profile for adult social care • frontline staff Younger & Disability Women & Care homes Front line staff Pregnancy Carers Deprivation BAME men older & LTC
Deprivation, unemployment, business & VCS Deprivation & unemployment had improved in LBTH • • Deprivation & financial problems worsen when pre-Covid, but still big challenges temporary support measures phase out Ability to tackle poverty through employment lessens • Economic ‘shock’ with Covid • • Increased demand & cost pressures in council Rich & poor gap widens • Business & organisational impact uneven, depends • • Longer-term consequences of increased deprivation on sector. Hard hit areas include hospitality, retail, felt across the board market traders. • Furlough, lay offs & reductions in hours for many – impact somewhat cushioned for now ‘V’ shaped economic rebound • • Opportunity to recruit to ‘hard to fill’ roles • LBTH possibly hit by economic shock harder than Cost benefits if less need for work space • most • Opportunity to do more with volunteers New alternatives to high streets • Many business & VCS remodelled to accommodate • social distancing, many worried about future Younger Lower With employment In shadow With food BAME Women barriers adults incomes economy insecurity
Homelessness, rough sleeping, safeguarding & domestic abuse • Rough sleeping dropped in very short time period • Finance pressure of sustaining positive impact on Enabled wraparound health & care to go in • rough sleeping Protection from being newly homeless for now • Increase in homelessness when eviction ban ends & • economic downturn Abuse & neglect harder to identify • Longer wait on housing waiting list • • Some in lockdown with abusers • Some abuse & neglect still hidden, some Initial dip in children’s safeguarding referrals then • resurgence in referrals as restrictions lift, picked up including expected surge in children’s safeguarding • Key role of schools with both this & domestic abuse • 20-30% increase in domestic abuse demand Changes with missing children, suspected online • Increased demands & cost pressures • exploitation • Longer-term consequences for victims No significant change in adult safeguarding numbers • Changes with Covid-related fraud, role of volunteers • Ambition to end rough sleeping achievable • Support to rough sleepers improves health • Domestic abuse levels already high in LBTH • outcomes • Indications of increase in DA across UK not seen in LBTH If lockdown a trigger/way of hiding abuse, this will • at first. Dip in referrals then picked up ease as restrictions lift Older Men & Disability Lower White & Pregnancy SEND Children or LTC BAME people women incomes
Crime, ASB, substance misuse Crime in UK reduced overall - including burglary & • • ‘Rebound’ in crime as lockdown eases assault Types of crime evolve & adapt to circumstances • Increased rivalry between drug gangs • • ASB reports in UK increased, likely driven by lockdown • Switch to harmful opiate substitutes • LBTH in line with national trends When lockdown goes, reversal in positive trends & • more overdoses if oversupply, low cost & high • Crime & ASB a top resident concern pre-Covid purity • New financial fraud patterns • Pre-Covid, high crack & opiate use in LBTH Crime levels stay lower than average whilst • • Drugs market has changed restrictions in place • Long-term changes to how people live will impact • Reports of opiate shortages & price rises crime levels & types • Much higher numbers of people referred for treatment • Residents feel more empowered Capitalise on increasing treatment referral rates to • • Impact on alcohol use is mixed reduce substance misuse Young Older Deprivation BAME people people
E ducation & learning Home learning whilst schools closed • • Children not school ready for September 2020 Overall negative impact on learning & attainment • • Concerns about quality & consistency from prolonged home learning in 2020 • LBTH children harder hit by this if social • Key exams & assessments cancelled inequalities exacerbated Grades determined by replacement process • • Broader wellbeing impacts arising from children not being in school Pre-Covid, LBTH had good attainment levels- • Financial strain on universities from drop in • particularly positive given deprivation levels international student applications All but 4 local schools rated good or outstanding • Key challenges for schools going forward: • safeguarding, mental health & loss of learning Impact of social inequalities on home learning • Free school meals now restricted to eligible • Some family relationships strengthened • families • Growing familiarity with technology for education Potential for innovate ways of working • Schools starting to reopen seen as contentious by • some White, Mixed Heritage, Lower Ineligible Larger Families with English Boys Teenagers SEND as 2 nd language Black Caribbean incomes for FSM families
Transport, air quality, community involvement & cohesion • Car & public transport usage dropped in March • Rebound in car use Car use in UK & London since crept back up Subsequent decline in air quality • • • Minority of LBTH residents are car owners • TfL fares increase if bailed out Public transport discouraged & TfL now facing financial Climate change pushed down agenda • • problems • Fewer volunteers as more return to work More walking & cycling space being created in London • • Cycling down in LBTH, likely due to less commuting ‘Green recovery’ • Evidence of interest in more cycling • Meet the aims of the LBTH Transport Strategy • • Capitalise on opportunities to increase levels of • Air quality poor in LBTH pre-Covid walking & cycling Air pollution dropped in UK & LBTH in tandem with • • Improve air quality drop in car use Positive health impacts arising from this • Tackle climate change • • Rise in volunteering & Mutual Aid groups • Galvanise & act on ‘community spirit’ Some tensions re: neighbours & social distancing • Mutual Aid groups outlast pandemic • • But general sense of coming together • Volunteers remain higher than pre-Covid
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