SLIDE 1
Residential Analysts
House Price to Earnings Ratio
Source: ONS UK
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 House price to earnings ratio
Understanding Local Housing Markets House Price to Earnings Ratio - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Understanding Local Housing Markets House Price to Earnings Ratio - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Understanding Local Housing Markets House Price to Earnings Ratio Residential Analysts Source: ONS UK 9.0 8.0 House price to earnings ratio 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Residential Analysts
The housing debate is “bedevilled by rival simplifications”
Michael Edwards 2015
SLIDE 4
Residential Analysts
Lack of Supply
Source: MHCLG England
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Completions Unknown Housing Associations Local Authorities Private Enterprise
SLIDE 5
Residential Analysts
Financialisation of Housing
Source: ONS, UK Finance UK
Actual House Price Modelled House Price (uses average wage, average mortgage rate net of MIRAS, repayments:30%, & LTV:70%)
£0 £50,000 £100,000 £150,000 £200,000 £250,000 Dec 1969 Dec 1971 Dec 1973 Dec 1975 Dec 1977 Dec 1979 Dec 1981 Dec 1983 Dec 1985 Dec 1987 Dec 1989 Dec 1991 Dec 1993 Dec 1995 Dec 1997 Dec 1999 Dec 2001 Dec 2003 Dec 2005 Dec 2007 Dec 2009 Dec 2011 Dec 2013 Dec 2015 Dec 2017 Nominal house price
SLIDE 6
Residential Analysts
Distribution of Housing
Source: calculated using EHS 2015 stock data England
54,000,000 37,000,000 63,000,000
10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 Household Population Required Bedrooms Bedrooms
SLIDE 7
Residential Analysts
Quality of Housing
Source: EHS 2015 England
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Owner Occupied Private Rented Local Authority Housing Association Percent of properties in tenure Post 2002 1981-2002 1965-80 1945-64 1919-44 pre 1919
SLIDE 8
Residential Analysts
Weak Demand
Source: ONS
Inflation Wages
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annual change
SLIDE 9
Residential Analysts
Sky News Research
SLIDE 10
Residential Analysts
Five Biggest Housing Crises
Source: Residential Analysts
SLIDE 11
Residential Analysts
Multiple Housing Issues
Source: Residential Analysts
High House Prices Lack of New Supply High Cost of Housing Turnover of Existing Housing Low Income Renters Distribution of Housing Financialisation of Housing Homelessness Falling Home-Ownership Weak Demographic Demand Social Mobility Quality of Housing Weak Economic Demand Ageing Population Climate Change
SLIDE 12
Residential Analysts
Providing Advice & Guidance
Source: Residential Analysts
SLIDE 13
Residential Analysts