[PPT] - UNDERSTANDI NG UNDERSTANDI NG ELECTI ONS ELECTI ONS I N PAKI STAN PowerPoint Presentation

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1 -

25 January, 2008

Dr.

Dr. Ijaz

Ijaz Shafi Gilani Shafi Gilani Chairman Gallup Pakistan Chairman Gallup Pakistan

UNDERSTANDI NG UNDERSTANDI NG ELECTI ONS ELECTI ONS I N PAKI STAN I N PAKI STAN

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1 1

Prospects for Prospects for Elections 2 0 0 8 Elections 2 0 0 8

2 2

Electoral Electoral Behaviour Behaviour and and the History of Rigging the History of Rigging

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ELECTI ONS 2 0 0 8 ELECTI ONS 2 0 0 8

PAKI STAN PAKI STAN ’ ’S S 8

8 th

th NATI ONAL ELECTI ONS

NATI ONAL ELECTI ONS

O Yahya

1 9 7 0

O Bangladesh O PNA O Zia ul Haq O I JI / Naw az Tenure 1 Tenure 2 Tenure 2 O Party less O Benazir Tenure 1 O Naw az O Benazir O Naw az O Pervez Musharraf ?

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 0 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 0 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 5

O Bhutto

1 9 7 7 Past History

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3 3 DECI SI VE FACTORS

DECI SI VE FACTORS

Geography or Turf Electoral Arenas Behaviour Patterns Voting Patterns System Effects Rules of the Electoral Gam e

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GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF

NA SEATS

272

+ ~~

Population: 165 Million Registered Voters: ~80 Million

PAKISTAN

Continued…

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Continued… … … GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF

Seats: 5 Seats: 6 Seats: 2 Seats: 3 Seats:5 Seats:4 Seats:3 Seats:4 Seats:4

Seats:6

Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:5 Seats:6 Seats:11

Seats:3

Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:7 Seats:5 Seats:5 Seats:4

Seats:13

Seats:7 Seats:4 Seats:5

Seats:3

Seats:7 Seats:3

Seats:2

Seats:5 Seats:6 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:5 Seats:4 Seats:3 Seats:4 Seats:4

Seats:6

Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:5 Seats:6 Seats:1 1

Seats:3

Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:7 Seats:5 Seats:5 Seats:4

Seats:1 3

Seats:7 Seats:4 Seats:5

Seats:3

Seats:7 Seats:3

Seats:2

PUNJAB 150 Southern Punjab 44

Bahawalpur 5 Multan 6 Rahimyar Khan 6 Muzaffargarh 5 Vehari 4 Khanewal 4 Bahawalnagar 4 Dera Ghazi Khan 3 Rajan Pur 2 Lodhran 2 Pakpattan 3

Central Punjab 57

Lahore 13 Gujranwala 7 Sheikhupura 7 Sialkot 5 Kasur 5 Okara 5 Gujrat 4 Sahiwal 4 Narowal 3 Mandi Bahauddin 2 Hafizabad 2

Western Punjab 33

Mianwali 2 Khushab 2 Bhakkar 2 Sargodha 5 Layyah 2 Jhang 6 Faisalabad 11 Toba Tek Singh 3

Northern Punjab 16

Rawalpindi 7 Islamabad 2 Attock 3 Jhelum 2 Chakwal 2

NA SEATS

150

+ ~~

PUNJAB PUNJAB Population: 55%

55%

Continued…

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Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:4 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:3 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:6 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:20

SI NDH 61

Karachi City 20 I nterior Sindh 41

Sakkur 2 Ghotki 2 Khairpur 3 Nawabshah 2 Naushero Feroz 2 Larkana 4 Shikarpur 2 Jacobabad 3 Mirpur Khas 3 Tharparkar 2 Sanghar 3 Hyderabad 6 Badin 2 Thatha 2 Dadu 3

NA SEATS

61

+ ~~

SINDH SINDH Population: 25%

25%

Continued…

Continued… … … GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF

Sindh

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Seats:4 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:1

NWFP 35

Peshawar (Valley Region) 13

Peshawar 4 Nowshera 2 Charsadda 2 Mardan 3 Swabi 2

Southern NWFP 7

Kohat 1 Karak 1 Bannu 1 Hangu 1 Lakki Marwat 1

D. I. Khan

2

Malakand 8

Malakand 1 Shangla 1 Swat 2 Upper Dir 1 Lower Dir 1 Chitral 1 Buner 1

Hazara Division 7

Abbottabad 2 Mansehra 2 Haripur 1 Kohistan 1 Batagram 1

Continued… … … GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF NA SEATS

35

+ ~~

NWFP NWFP Population: 15%

15%

Continued…

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Calculus of Electoral Politics in Pakistan 2007

Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:

1

Seats:

1

Seats:

1

Seats:1 Seats:

1

Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1

BALUCHI STAN 14

Quetta Sub Region 6

Quetta 1 Quetta, Chagi, Matsang 1 Pishin, Ziarat 1 Loralai 1 Zhob, Killa Saifullah 1 Killa Abdullah 1

Kalat Mekran Sub Region

8

Kohlu, Sibi, Dera Bugti 1 Nasirabad 1 Kachhi 1 Kalat, Mastung 1 Khuzdar 1 Awaran, Lasbela 1 Panjgur, Kharan 1 Kech, Gwadar 1

Continued… … … GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF NA SEATS

14

+ ~~

BALOCHISTAN BALOCHISTAN Population: 5%

5%

Continued…

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Significant Points Significant Points

1 - Provinces are vastly different in Size 2 - Each Province has its unique DI VERSI TY in Voting Behaviour Sindh: Urban-Rural Balochistan: Pashtun-Baloch NW FP: Peshawar Valley Hazara Division Southern Divisions Malakand Division PUNJAB: North Central South West

Continued…

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3 - Political Com petitors Vary from Province to Province

Significant Points

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Vote Bank

All Pakistan Voting Pattern

Major Political

Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 % of votes 23% 30% 37% 40% 45% 39%

No. of seats

18 54 106 72 134 99*

% of votes 39% 38% 37% 38% 21% 26%

No. of seats

81 93 44 86 18 61

% of votes 38% 30% 26% 22% 32% 35%

No. of seats

39 57 57 58 52 109

**

PML and PML-led Alliances PPP and PPP-led Alliances Others

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Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 % of votes 45% 47% 42% 51% 32% 37%

No. of seats

18 31 24 33 18 27

% of votes 25% 27% 18% 15%

No. of seats

13 15 12 13

% of votes 55% 28% 31% 48% 50% 48%

No. of seats

9 2 7 13 16 21

Boycott PPP and PPP-led Alliances MQM NA Others

Sindh Voting Pattern

Continued….. Vote Bank

Continued…

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Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 % of votes 27% 18% 18% 41% 13% 18%

No. of seats

2

3 2 10 2 3

% of votes 56% 65% 48% 38%

No. of seats

13 14 12 13

% of votes 73%* 26% 17% 59% 26% 44%

No. of seats

5

8 2 6

Boycott MQM Others NA PPP and PPP-led Alliances

Urban Sindh Voting Pattern

Continued….. Vote Bank

Continued…

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Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 % of votes 51% 68% 58% 57% 42% 45%

No. of seats

16

28 22 25 16 24

% of votes 3% 3% 0% 5%

No. of seats

1

% of votes 49%* 29% 40% 43% 58% 49%

No. of seats

4

7 3 12 15

Boycott NA PPP and PPP-led Alliances MQM Others

I nterior Sindh Voting Pattern

Continued….. Vote Bank

Continued…

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Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:4 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:3 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:6 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:20

SI NDH 61

Karachi City 20 I nterior Sindh 41

Sakkur 2 Ghotki 2 Khairpur 3 Nawabshah 2 Naushero Feroz 2 Larkana 4 Shikarpur 2 Jacobabad 3 Mirpur Khas 3 Tharparkar 2 Sanghar 3 Hyderabad 6 Badin 2 Thatha 2 Dadu 3

NA SEATS

61

+ ~~

SINDH SINDH Population: 25%

25%

Continued…

Sindh

Continued….. Vote Bank

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Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 % of votes 22% 21% 12% 7% NA 17%

No. of seats

2 2 3 3*

% of votes 2% 7% 15% 18% NA 10%

No. of seats

1 2 1

% of votes 21% 17% 19% 10% NA 19%

No. of seats

1 4 2 2 2 6

% of votes 45% 19% 29% 22% NA 33%

No. of seats

3 2 3 4 2 3

% of votes 10% 35% 25% 42% NA 22%

No. of seats

2 2 4 1 2

Others PML and PML-led Alliances PPP and PPP-led Alliances Religious Parties (Primarily JUI) Regional Parties (Balochistan

Balochistan Voting Pattern

Continued….. Vote Bank

Continued…

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Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:

1

Seats:

1

Seats:

1

Seats:1 Seats:

1

Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1

BALUCHI STAN 14

Quetta Sub Region 6

Quetta 1 Quetta, Chagi, Matsang 1 Pishin, Ziarat 1 Loralai 1 Zhob, Killa Saifullah 1 Killa Abdullah 1

Kalat Mekran Sub Region

8

Kohlu, Sibi, Dera Bugti 1 Nasirabad 1 Kachhi 1 Kalat, Mastung 1 Khuzdar 1 Awaran, Lasbela 1 Panjgur, Kharan 1 Kech, Gwadar 1

NA SEATS

14

+ ~~

BALOCHISTAN BALOCHISTAN Population: 5%

5%

Continued…

Continued….. Vote Bank

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Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 % of votes 14% 23% 23% 16% 10% 12%

No. of seats

1 8 5 5 2*

% of votes 27% 27% 24% 32% 37% 18%

No. of seats

7 8 8 10 15 4**

% of votes 33% JUI-F: 11% JUI-F: 20 % PIF: 11% MDM: 2% IJM: 11% JUI-F: 8% JI Boycott MMA: 45%

No. of seats

6 4 JUI-F (4) PIF (2) MDM (1) IJM (2) MMA (29)

% of votes 19% 18% 15% 15% 19% 9%

No. of seats

3 2 6 3 9

% of votes 7% 21% 18% 13% 26% 16%

No. of seats

8 3 3 2 1 12

PPP and PPP-led Alliances PML and PML-led Alliances ANP*** Religious Parties (Primarily JUI, JI and MMA in 2002) Others

NW FP Voting Pattern

Continued….. Vote Bank

Continued…

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Seats:4 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:1 Seats:2 Seats:1 Seats:1

NWFP 35

Peshawar (Valley Region) 13

Peshawar 4 Nowshera 2 Charsadda 2 Mardan 3 Swabi 2

Southern NWFP 7

Kohat 1 Karak 1 Bannu 1 Hangu 1 Lakki Marwat 1

D. I. Khan

2

Malakand 8

Malakand 1 Shangla 1 Swat 2 Upper Dir 1 Lower Dir 1 Chitral 1 Buner 1

Hazara Division 7

Abbottabad 2 Mansehra 2 Haripur 1 Kohistan 1 Batagram 1

NA SEATS

35

+ ~~

NWFP NWFP Population: 15%

15%

Continued…

Continued….. Vote Bank

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Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 % of votes 23% 38% 49% 45% 59% 52%

No. of seats

10 45 92 52 107 85*

% of votes 42% 40% 39% 39% 22% 27%

No. of seats

62 53 14 47 33

% of votes 35% 22% 12% 16% 19% 13%

No. of seats

10 17 9 13 7 20

PML and PML-led Alliances PPP and PPP-led Alliances Others

Punjab Voting Pattern

Continued….. Vote Bank

Continued…

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Seats: 5 Seats: 6 Seats: 2 Seats: 3 Seats:5 Seats:4 Seats:3 Seats:4 Seats:4

Seats:6

Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:5 Seats:6 Seats:11

Seats:3

Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:7 Seats:5 Seats:5 Seats:4

Seats:13

Seats:7 Seats:4 Seats:5

Seats:3

Seats:7 Seats:3

Seats:2

Seats:5 Seats:6 Seats:2 Seats:3 Seats:5 Seats:4 Seats:3 Seats:4 Seats:4

Seats:6

Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:5 Seats:6 Seats:1 1

Seats:3

Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats:7 Seats:5 Seats:5 Seats:4

Seats:1 3

Seats:7 Seats:4 Seats:5

Seats:3

Seats:7 Seats:3

Seats:2

PUNJAB 150 Southern Punjab 44

Bahawalpur 5 Multan 6 Rahimyar Khan 6 Muzaffargarh 5 Vehari 4 Khanewal 4 Bahawalnagar 4 Dera Ghazi Khan 3 Rajan Pur 2 Lodhran 2 Pakpattan 3

Central Punjab 57

Lahore 13 Gujranwala 7 Sheikhupura 7 Sialkot 5 Kasur 5 Okara 5 Gujrat 4 Sahiwal 4 Narowal 3 Mandi Bahauddin 2 Hafizabad 2

Western Punjab 33

Mianwali 2 Khushab 2 Bhakkar 2 Sargodha 5 Layyah 2 Jhang 6 Faisalabad 11 Toba Tek Singh 3

Northern Punjab 16

Rawalpindi 7 Islamabad 2 Attock 3 Jhelum 2 Chakwal 2

NA SEATS

150

+ ~~

PUNJAB PUNJAB Population: 55%

55%

Continued…

Continued….. Vote Bank

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Punjab Electoral Performance of Muslim League(s) (1970-2002)

23 % 38 % 49 % 45 % 59 % 52 %

10 (seats out of 82) 45

(seats out

f 115)

92

(seats out of 115)

52

(seats out

f 112)

107

(seats out

f 114)

85

(seats out

f 149)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002

Elections Percentage of votes / Number of NA seats

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

% of votes

No. of seats

The Decisive Contest in Punjab

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Punjab Electoral Performance of Pakistan People's Party (1970-2002)

27% 22 % 39 % 39 % 40 % 42 %

(seats out

f 114)

47 (seats out of 112) 14

(seats out of 115)

53 (seats out of 115) 62 (seats out of 82) 33

(seats out

f 149)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002

Elections Percentage of votes / Number of NA seats

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

% of votes

No. of seats

The Decisive Contest in Punjab

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P u n ja b E le c to ra l P e rfo rm a n c e o f P a k is ta n P e o p le 's P a r ty (1 9 7 0 -2 0 0 2 )

2 7 % 2 2 % 3 9 % 3 9 % 4 0 % 4 2 %

( s e a ts o u t

f 1 1 4 )

4 7 ( s e a ts o u t o f 1 1 2 ) 1 4

( s e a ts o u t o f 1 1 5 )

5 3 ( s e a ts o u t o f 1 1 5 ) 6 2 ( s e a ts o u t o f 8 2 ) 3 3

( s e a ts o u t

f 1 4 9 )

5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0 6 5

1 9 7 0 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 2 E le c tio n s Percentage of votes / Number of NA seats

5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0 6 5

% o f vo te s N o . o f s e a ts

P u n ja b E le c to ra l P e rfo rm a n c e o f M u s l i m L e a g u e (s ) (1 9 7 0 -2 0 0 2 )

2 3 % 3 8 % 4 9 % 4 5 % 5 9 % 5 2 %

1 0 ( s e a ts o u t o f 8 2 ) 4 5

( s e a ts o u t

f 1 1 5 )

9 2

( s e a ts o u t o f 1 1 5 )

5 2

( s e a ts o u t

f 1 1 2 )

1 0 7

( s e a ts o u t

f 1 1 4 )

8 5

( s e a ts o u t

f 1 4 9 )

5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0

1 9 7 0 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 2

E le c tio n s Percentage of votes / Number of NA seats

5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0

% o f v o te s N o . o f s e a ts

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All Pakistan winner in National Assembly PPP PPP ahead by 19% PPP ahead by 52 seats (Winner gets 37% vote nationally) (42:23%) (62:10*) seats for Ml(s) PPP PPP ahead by 2% PPP ahead by 8 seats (Winner gets 39% vote nationally) (40:38%) (53:45) seats ML ML ahead by 10% ML ahead by 78 seats (Winner gets 37% vote nationally) (49:39%) (92:14) seats PPP ML ahead by 6% ML ahead by 5 seats (Winner gets 38% vote nationally) (45:39%) (52:47) seats ML ML ahead by 37% ML ahead by 107 seats (Winner gets 46% vote nationally) (59:22%) (107:zero) seats No clear winner ML(s) ahead by 24% ML(s) ahead by 48 seats PPP (26%), PML-Q (24%), PML-N (11 %) PML(Q) (35%), PML(N) (16%), PPP (27%) PML(Q) (67), PML(N) (16); PPP (34) seats National Assembly Elections Voting Ratio: ML and PPP in Punjab Edge of National Assembly Seats in Punjab 1970 2002 1988 1990 1993 1997

The Dram atic 5 % Sw ing Factor in Punjab

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%

Percentage Edge of Winner over Runner-up

Edge in % Votes 19% 2% 10% 6% 37% 24% 30% Edge in % of NA seats 38% 4% 38% 2% 52% 18% 40% 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 2008 (Projection)

The Dram atic 5 % Sw ing Factor in Punjab

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FPTP System and FPTP System and HUNG PARLI AMENT THESI S HUNG PARLI AMENT THESI S FPTP works against producing Hung Parliaments Hence despite spoken and unspoken wishes to obtain Hung Parliaments the

utcome in most elections has been to

the contrary

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Hung Parliam ent

1970 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of Seats Winner AL 39% 160 53% Runner-up PPP 19% 81 27%

1988 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of Seats Winner PPP 39% 93 47% Runner-up IJI 32% 54 27% Runner-up MQM 5% 13 7% 1990 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of Seats Winner IJI 37% 105 53% Runner-up PDA 37% 45 23% Runner-up MQM 6% 15 8%

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1993 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of Seats Winner PPP 38% 86 44% Runner-up PML-J 4% 6 3% Runner-up IJM 2% 4 2% Runner-up PML-N 40% 72 37% Runner-up PIF 3% 3 2%

1997 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of Seats Winner PML-N 46% 136 69% Runner-up PPP 21% 18 9%

2002 Party Share in Votes ( %) Number of Seats in NA % of Seats Winner PML-Q 26% 78 29% Runner-up MMA 11% 45 17% Runner-up NA 5% 12 4% Runner-up PPP-P 26% 63 23% Runner-up PML-N 12% 15 6%

Continued… … . Hung Parliament

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Hung Parliam ent?

53% 47% 53% 44% 69% 29% 9% 23% 37% 23% 27% 27% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002

% of Seats in National Assembly

Winner Runner-up

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Trends in Musharraf’s Net Approval Ratings

Year Net Approval Rating: (Approval minus Disapproval) Surrounding Events 1999 85% Honeymoon 2000 34% Honeymoon is over 2001 32% A New Phase is about to start 2002 25% 2002 Elections 2003 81% Post Election Government 2004 70% 2005 54% 2006 59% 32% Moves on to hold next Elections, Seeking Third Term Presidency 7% Judicial Crisis takes its toll 2008 Zero Benazir Bhutto Assassinated 2007 The Post Election Government continues

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85% 34% 32% 25% 81% 70% 54% 59% 32% 7% Z ero 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 M ar. 2007 N

v.

2007 Jan. 2008

Net Perform ance Rating of Pervez Musharraf ( 1 9 9 9 -2 0 0 8 )

Method to Calculate: The performance Ratings were sought in a 5 Point Scale. The score above is calculated by the following tabulation: - Score =(Very Good+ Good) – (Bad + Very Bad)

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S T O R Y O F D E M O C R A C Y

( F r o m A n t i q u i t y t o 2 1

s t C

e n t u r y ) D E M O C R A C Y

- - - - - - - - - - O

R I G I N S I n d i v i d u a l S o c i a l G r o u p G e n e r a t e s P o w e r R e g u l a t o r s o f P o w e r b e c o m e t o o ‘ P o w e r f u l ’ D I L E M M A R e t u r n t o R a l l y t o I n d i v i d u a l G r o u p B e h a v i o r B e h a v i o r A n a r c h y O p p r e s s i o n S O L U T I O N S L e v i a t h a n S o c i a l C

n t r a c t

( O p p r e s s i v e R u l e r ) ( S e l f - G

v e r n a n c e )

O B J E C T I V E O r d e r T a m i n g o f P o w e r

M a g n a C a r t a

S h a r i n g o f P o w e r

SLIDE 35

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E a r l y P a r l i a m e n t s o f t h e E l i t e

I n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f P o w e r S h a r i n g A r r a n g e m e n t s

E l e c t i o n s + P a r l i a m e n t s U n i v e r s a l S u f f r a g e + P o l i t i c a l P a r t i e s

E l e c t i o n s D i r e c t R e p r e s e n t a t i v e D e m o c r a c y D e m o c r a c y I N S T I T U T I O N A L I Z A T I O N D I L E M M A S B u r e a u c r a c y D i s e m p o w e r m e n t E f f i c i e n c y C o r r u p t i o n S O C I A L C H A N G E S C o n t i n u i t y C h a n g e s O u t d a t e d H a b i t s F o r m – Y e s a r e p o w e r f u l S u b s t a n c e - N o S e l f A d a p t a t i o n I n f o r m a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y w h i c h

u t d a t e s a s p e c t s o f

t h e I n t e r m e d i a t i o n b y R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s

f t h e

R e p r e s e n t a t i v e D e m o c r a c y C h a n g e s i n t h e S p a c e o f D e m o c r a c y w h i c h i s t h e N a t i o n - S t a t e

G l o b a l i z a t i o n

a n d R e g i o n a l i z a t i

n
C o m p l e x i t y
f

G o v e r n a n c e ( r e q u i r i n g T e c h n o c r a t i c S o l u t i o n ) C i i

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Satisfied, Disillusioned OR Disgusted w ith Dem ocracy, 2 0 0 0

V O P 2 0 0 0

1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 Armenia Russia Ukraine Cameroon Mexico Kazakhstan Georgia Colombia Pakistan Croatia Paraguay Peru Belarus Bosnia & Herz. Latvia Bolivia Korea Turkey Estonia Ecuador Japan Bulgaria Ghana Romania Thailand Macedonia Poland Taiwan Italy USA UK Finland Sweden France Denmark Czech Rep. Hungary Uruguay Lithuania Dominican Rep. Chile Argentina Philippines Belgium Hong Kong Switzerland Canada Austria Iceland Slovakia Netherlands Nigeria Spain Norway

Rep. of Ireland

Singapore Luxembourg Malaysia D is g u s te d D is illu s io n e d S a tis fie d 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

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1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 Nigeria Russia Ethiopia Paraguay Macedonia Mexico Togo Bosnia & Herz. Philippines Bolivia India Peru Nicaragua Bulgaria Ukraine Serbia Pakistan Cameroon Croatia Lithuania Japan Moldova Colombia Italy Ecuador Korea Argentina Taiwan USA Hong Kong Thailand Costa Rica Guatemala Netherland Germany France Panama Indonesia UK Greece Canada Turkey Dominican Rep. Czech Rep. Kenya

Rep. of Ireland

Venezuela Israel Portugal Iceland Spain Kosovo Finland Singapore Austria Switzerland Uruguay Denmark Norway Romania South Africa Ghana Senegal Malaysia D i s g u s te d D i s i l l u s i o n e d S a ti s fi e d 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

Satisfied, Disillusioned OR Disgusted w ith Dem ocracy, 2 0 0 5

SLIDE 38

38 -

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ukraine Cameroon Pakistan Russia Albania Bulgaria Moldova Guatemala Bosnia & Herz. Croatia Nigeria Serbia Macedonia Philippines USA Colombia Japan Italy Poland Turkey Romania Greece Indonesia Netherlands Canada Germany UK Korea Portugal Panama Luxembourg South Africa Hong Kong Kosovo Bolivia India Dominican Rep. Argentina France Czech Rep. Peru Austria Finland Spain Senegal Ecuador Singapore Norway Sweden Venezuela Denmark Iceland Ghana Malaysia

Rep. of Ireland

Switzerland D is gus ted D is illus ioned Satis fied 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Satisfied, Disillusioned OR Disgusted w ith Dem ocracy, 2 0 0 7