UNDER GLOBAL CHANGE PROF. ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ CORRESPONDING - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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UNDER GLOBAL CHANGE PROF. ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ CORRESPONDING - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 25, 2023 44 likes •427 views

FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT UNDER GLOBAL CHANGE PROF. ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ CORRESPONDING MEMBER OF THE POLISH ACAD. SCI. INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENVIRONMENT, POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, POZNA, POLAND and PIK, POTSDAM, GERMANY JUBILEE

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JUBILEE SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE

“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT UNDER GLOBAL CHANGE

  • PROF. ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ

CORRESPONDING MEMBER OF THE POLISH ACAD. SCI.

INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENVIRONMENT, POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, POZNAŃ, POLAND and PIK, POTSDAM, GERMANY

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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Floods on the rise

Flood risk management and EU Floods Directive implementation

Flood risk management strategies Flood risk governance arrangements

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Floods on the rise

Flood risk management and EU Floods Directive implementation

Flood risk management strategies Flood risk governance arrangements

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Abundance of water Blessing Curse

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

1000-year flood

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Old 1000-year flood New 1000-year flood

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

In comparison to rural areas, the peak flow corresponding to a given precipitation is higher and faster in urban areas.

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Water holding capacity of the atmosphere

Clausius-Clapeyron equation des(T) / es(T) = L dT / R T2

where es(T) is the saturation vapor pressure at temperature T, L is the latent heat of vaporization, and R is the gas constant.

T grows es(T) grows 1oC 6-7%

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz

Many destructive deluges occurred in 21st century in Europe:

  • In August 2002, the number of flood fatalities reached

232 and the material damage soared to over USD 27 billion

  • Most recently, there were several large, killing, floods in

Europe in 2013–2014, caused by heavy and torrential rains, e.g. in Southern France, Northern Italy, Bulgaria, Greece, and Russia. A large late-spring flood (May–June)

  • ccurred in 2013 in Germany, Austria, and in

neighbouring countries. In Dec. 2013 – Feb. 2014, a large area of the UK experienced inundations.

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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

IAHS Press / CRC Press (Taylor & Francis)

IAHS Special Publication 10 (April 2012) 516 + xvi pages (WATCH, FLORIST projects)

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Floods on the rise

Flood risk projections and EU Floods Directive implementation

Flood risk management strategies Flood risk governance arrangements

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Multi-temporal trend analysis for standardised annual maximum discharge

Source: Ruiz-Villanueva et al. (2014) FLORIST project – rivers at Tatra foothills

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Current studies indicate that increasing exposure of population and assets, and not anthropogenic climate change, is responsible for the past increase in flood losses.

Source: Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Kanae, S.; Seneviratne, S. I.; et al., (2014) Flood risk and climate change: global and regional

  • perspectives. Hydrol. Sci. J. 59(1), 1-28.
  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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Projections of intense precipitation

Source: IPCC SREX

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Proje jections tions of changes ges in 100-yea ear r flood.

  • d. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lugeri, N., Dankers, R., Hirabayashi, Y., Döll, P., et al.

(2010) Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future. Mitig. Adapt. Strategies for Global Change 15(7), 641 – 656.

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Changes in frequency of 100-year river discharge

(Hirabayashi et al., 2013)

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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European Union Floods Directive

„Firstly, the scale and frequency of floods are likely to increase in the future as a result of climate change, inappropriate river management and construction in flood risk areas. Second, there has been a marked increase in vulnerability due to the number of people and economic assets located in flood risk zones.”

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Adjustment of national law to FD

Preparation of plans of flood risk management Preparation of flood risk maps Preparation of flood hazard maps

Determination of appropriate

  • rgans and basin areas

Preliminary flood risk assessment

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Flood-prone areas in Poland (Source: FRMP)

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

100-year flood: potential flood damage 6.5 B PLN (therein 3.7 B PLN – housing) Proposed measures (structural and non-structural) in 2016-2021 6.75 B PLN (therein most expensive Raciborz Dolny storage reservoir 1.3 B PLN)

Return period Exposed population Exposed area

500-year flood

325 thousand 3961.45 km2

100-year flood

149 thousand 3258.83 km2

10-year flood

22 thousand 1987.98 km2 Odra River Basin

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Better accommodation of extremes of present climate variability augurs better for the future climate. Since uncertainty in projections for the future is large, precautionary attitude should be taken when planning adaptation.

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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Despite the uncertainty, water managers in a few countries have begun to consider the implications of climate change explicitly in flood management. In the UK and in some German federal states (e.g. Bavaria) design flood magnitudes have been increased by 20% and 15%, respectively, to reflect the possible effects of climate change. Measures to cope with the increase of the design discharge for the Rhine in the Netherlands from 15 000 to 16 000 m3/s must be implemented by 2015 and it is planned to increase the design discharge to 18 000 m3/s in the longer term due to climate change.

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Floods on the rise

Flood risk projections and EU Floods Directive implementation

Flood risk management strategies

Flood risk governance arrangements

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Flood protection and management strategies modify either flood waters, or susceptibility to flood damage and impact of flooding.

Protect

[Absolute protection does not exist]

Accommodate

[Living with floods, learning from them]

Retreat

[The state/province purchases land and property in flood-prone areas]

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

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  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

  • I. Keeping water away from people
  • Flood defence
  • Flood flow improvement and retention
  • II. Keeping people and wealth away from water
  • Flood risk prevention
  • III. Being prepared to a flood occurrence
  • Flood risk mitigation
  • Flood preparation
  • Flood recovery
  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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Strategies do not have to be inclusive. Usually they come

  • together. If DEFENCE is a sole strategy, the residual risk is
  • ignored. Diversification of Flood Risk Management

Strategies: multiple strategies are applied simultaneously and linked together. Multi-layer strategy. Be prepared for coincidence of abundant water and damage potential in the same place and time. Instead of limiting consideration to a fail-safe system that never fails, we should strive to build a safe-fail system that fails in a safe way and recovers after failure. This is the essence of the notion of resilience.

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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Flood protection depends depends on wealth Kundzewicz, Z. W. & Takeuchi, K.

(1999) Flood protection and management: quo vadimus? Hydrol. Sci. J. 44(3) 417-432.

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Floods on the rise

Flood risk projections and EU Floods Directive implementation

Flood risk management strategies

Flood risk governance arrangements

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Operationalization of flood risk governance arrangements (STAR-FLOOD Project)

Actors: Public, private, coalitions and oppositions Discourses: Relevant scientific paradigms and uncertainties; Policy

programmes, policy objectives, and policy concepts; Historical metaphors/narratives; Policy and legal values and principles

Rules: Legislation (including case law); Constitutional, procedural,

and substantive norms; Legal instruments; Legal traditions; Informal rules

Power and resources: Legal authority, including the right to

regulate property (regulation, compensation and expropriation); Financial power; Knowledge; Interaction skills

Resilience and appropriateness (legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency)

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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Actors in Poland

Source: Polish report for STAR-FLOOD WP3

  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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“PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS RESULTING FROM SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH”

Links between flood risk reduction strategies and flood risk management arrangements

(STAR-FLOOD Project)

Basic direction

Prevention Response

FRRSs Flood risk prevention Flood defence Flood mitigation Flood preparation Flood recovery Typical measures Proactive spatial planning / allocation politics / location of building areas Dikes, dams, embankments, sand banks Urban green infrastructure, flood retention, urban design taking into account flood risks Warning systems, plans for disaster management / evacuation Rebuilding areas, insurance systems Flood risk governance arrangements

Dominant actors and coalitions

Spatial planning authorities Public authorities, water managers Authorities, private parties, NGOs, citizens Public authorities and citizens Citizens, NGOs, public authorities or private (insurance) companies

Dominant discourses

Precautionary principle Technology may protect you Risk integration (culture of risk) will minimize flood impacts Early warning will prevent calamities and loss of life Public or private solidarity will ease the burden

Rules of the game

Public hierarchical steering Public hierarchical steering Public and private forms of governance are possible Public and private forms of governance are possible Public and private forms of governance are possible

Division of resources

Legal power of public authorities Legal, cognitive, and financial resources of public authorities Legal, cognitive, and financial resources can be concentrated

  • r diffuse

Centralization of control and resources Legal, cognitive, and financial resources can be concentrated

  • r diffuse
  • Prof. Z. W. Kundzewicz
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Thank you for attention

kundzewicz@yahoo.com

Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains