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Ubiquitous & Pervasive Computing:

A Technology-driven Motivation

März 2000 Dagstuhl, August 2002

Friedemann Mattern

ETH Zürich

ET ETH

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Hardware Trends

F.Ma. 3

Computing: A Clear Trend

One computer (PC) for everyone Many computers for everyone One computer (mainframe) for many people

Size Number

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The Trend… What Next?

Many computers for everyone

Size Number

smart dust?

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„Yesterday's Computers Filled Rooms...“

IBM Selective Sequence Electronic Calculator (1948)

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IBM Selective Sequence Electronic Calculator (ca. 1948)

„Yesterday's Computers Filled Rooms - So Will Tomorrow's.“

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Internet Trends

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The Qualitative Growth of the Internet

Email

Research network

WWW

Internet time line

people to people people to machines

Mobile Internet

2002

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The Qualitative Growth of the Internet

Email

Research network

WWW

Internet time line

people to people people to machines

Mobile Internet

2002

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The Qualitative Growth of the Internet

Email

Research network

Mobile Internet WWW

2002

Internet time line

people to people people to machines

Embedded Internet Services

machines to machines

Networked embedded systems

machines talking to machines

Era of ubiquitous and pervasive computing

information appliances smart things

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image source: “Die Zeit”

Ubiquitous Computing

Tomorrow everyday

• bjects will become smart

embedded processors

...and they will all be interconnected

wireless communication

Today, the Internet connects all computers

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Everything Smart?

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Embedded Computing Enables „Cooperating Smart Things“

• 1. Embedded processors

in everyday objects small cheap lightweight

• 2. Wireless communication

spontaneous networks

• 3. Sensors

Real world objects are enriched with information processing capabilities

Friedemann Mattern

F.Ma. 15

Embedded Computing Enables „Cooperating Smart Things“

• 1. Embedded processors

in everyday objects small cheap lightweight

• 2. Wireless communication

spontaneous networks

• 3. Sensors

Real world objects are enriched with information processing capabilities

Friedemann Mattern

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What If All Things Were Smart?

And communicate with each other?

I‘m smart hello!

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„A Dancing Toaster“ (Rich Gold, XEROX PARC)

Smart Objects?

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Smart Objects!

Can remember pertinent events

they have a memory

Show context-sensitive behavior

they may have sensors location / situation awareness I‘m smart!

Are responsive

communicate with their environment networked with other smart objects hello!

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Networked with Other Smart Objects?

Cartoon by Jeff MacNelly

I‘M SORRY, DAVE. I CAN‘T DO THAT. THE BATHROOM SCALE AND THE HALL MIRROR ARE REPORTING DISTURBING FLAB ANOMALIES ANOTHER BEER, PLEASE, HAL...

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Happy Networking?

Coffee gets cold! Water! Hug me! Lending period expired! Time for lunch!

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Calm Technology?

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Calm Technology!

Mark Weiser

1952 - 1999 XEROX PARC The Coming Age of Calm Technology

„As technology becomes more imbedded and invisible, it calms our lives by removing the annoyances while keeping us connected with what is truly important“

The Disappearing Computer

„The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave them- selves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.“

1988 Notion of Ubiquitous Computing

„In the 21st century the technology revolution will move into the everyday, the small and the invisible…“

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Disappearing Computer

Information processing moves to the background

human centered: concentrate on the task, not the tool the notion „computer as a tool“ does no longer hold

image source: Phillips

New picture of computing as an invisible, ubiquitous background assistance

specialized, invisible computers will become an integral part of the natural human environment „computing without computers“

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4 Reasons for Ubicomp

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Four Reasons for Ubicomp

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Processing speed and storage capacity double every 18 months

„cheaper, smaller, faster“

Exponential increase

will probably go on for the next 10 years at same rate

First Reason for Ubiquitous Computing: Moore‘s Law (1965)

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Moore‘s Law

Electronics, April 19, 1965

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Moore‘s Law

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Moore‘s Law

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Moore‘s Law

The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year (see graph on next page). Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000.

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

YEAR

LOG2 OF THE NUMBER OF COMPONENTS PER INTEGRATED FUNCTION

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Transistors Per Die

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1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2 4 6 8 10 20

Conventional Bulk CMOS SOI (silicon-on-insulator) High mobility Double-Gate

Relative Device Performance Year

Example: CMOS Performance Increase

Source: IBM

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SIA Roadmap 1998

Year 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

structural size (nm) 180 130 100 70 50 35 cost / transistor 1'735 .580 .255 .110 .049 .022 clock [MHz] 1250 2100 3500 6000 10000 16900 chip size [mm

2]

340 430 520 620 750 900

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Disk Storage Density

Hard Disk Storage Density

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Kilobits per sq. inch

Scientific American, May 2000

A 1GB disk drive in a compact flash card format (2001)

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Bit Storage Density

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Generalized Moore‘s Law

Most important technology parameters double every 1 – 3 years:

computation cycles memory, magnetic disks bandwidth

Problems:

• increasing cost
• energy

Consequence: scaling down

Friedemann Mattern

F.Ma. 39

WatchPad1.5 Functions

IrDA port Stem switch Fingerprint sensor 3 Buttons 320x240 B/W LCD Touch panel Microphone Battery terminal (right side) Bluetooth module (band joint) Piezo speaker bottom Accelerometer

• n board

Vibrator around here

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Use as a Universal Remote Controller

Office Home Car

• f Denmark)

• f England)

Robot

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Use as a Personal Identificator

Automated check-in at hotel and air counter Cashless payment at restaurant and station Medical history and prescription retrieval Specify your preference

Hotel Restaurant Station/Airport Hospital Street

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Use as a Display for Location Based Services

Hotel Restaurant Station/Airport Store

Today’s special Seat location Schedule News Tourist info.

Provide personalized advertisement and offering information Timetable and flight schedule at station and airport Navigate you at stations

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Energy Crisis: Not Everything Obeys Moore‘s Law!

Generalized Moore‘s Law Generalized Moore‘s Law

Battery capacity Battery capacity

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Barriers

Wright brothers Speed [km/h] 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 103 102 10 Concorde Sound barrier 747

Exponential increase of aircraft speed?

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About Predictions (1955)

"Bei diesem besonders schnittigen Modell aus dem Jahr 1975 handelt es sich um einen eleganten Zweisitzer mit Heck-Atomantrieb; die Sitze befinden sich dicht hinter den Vorderrädern..."

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too expensive? … + unconvenient? … + too dangerous? too early?

Moon colonies

• Submarine towns
• Flying cars
• Paperless office

How Accurate Were Previous Predictions?

F.Ma. 47

too expensive? … + unconvenient? … + too dangerous? too early?

Moon colonies

• Submarine towns
• Flying cars
• Paperless office

How Accurate Were Previous Predictions?

Supersonic planes

what about the Concorde?

Home robots

too early?

Magnetic suspension trains

too expensive?

Controled nuclear fusion

too optimistic?

F.Ma. 48

Predictions in 1938

In 1938 Arthur Train made some predictions about housing conditions 50 years later, in 1988 (in an article for the „Harper“ magazine):

air condition, color TV via coax cable and with remote control, radio clock, frozen food, mobile phone („pocket radio“), PC / PDA („photoelectric tabulating machine“), synthetic textiles,...

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Predictions in 1938

In 1938 Arthur Train made some predictions about housing conditions 50 years later, in 1988 (in an article for the „Harper“ magazine):

air condition, color TV via coax cable and with remote control, radio clock, frozen food, mobile phone („pocket radio“), PC / PDA („photoelectric tabulating machine“), synthetic textiles,... But also: synthetic air, roll of films instead of books and „the roof of the house is used as the landing field for the family‘s collection of airplanes of assorted sizes“,…

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Predictions?

„We are always very bad at predicting how a given technology will be used and for what reasons“

• - Bran Ferren, Chief Disney Imagineer

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Four Reasons for Ubicomp

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Whole eras named after materials

e.g., „Stone Age“

More recently: semiconductors, fibers

information and communication technology

Organic semiconductors

change the external appearance

• f computers

„Plastic“ laser

• pto electronics, flexible displays,…

...

2nd Reason: New Materials

first transistor, 1947

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Flexible Substrates

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Flexible Substrates

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Light Emitting Polymers

Organic semiconductors Plastic displays (~ 1 mm thick) Applications are emerging

(e.g., curved or flexible displays)

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Flexible Display Prototypes (2001)

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Electronic ink

micro capsules, white on one side and black on the other

• riented by electrical field

substrate could be an array

• f plastic transistors

Potentially high contrast, low energy, flexible Interactive: with magnetic pen

Another Example: Smart Paper, Electronic Ink

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Smart Paper, Electronic Ink

An electronically charged pencil rotates the “pixels” Detailed view of the micro capsules

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Electronic Ink

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Electronic Ink

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E-Ink

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E-Ink: Cover Story and Evaluation Prototype

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This foldable and rollable interactive map (“you are here”) is still science fiction, unfortunately

Smart Paper: Applications

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Four Reasons for Ubicomp

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3rd Trend: Progress in Communication Technologies

Fiber optics: from Gbit/s to Tbit/s Powerline technique

coffee maker „auto- matically“ connected to the Internet

Wireless

mobile phone: GSM, UMTS wireless LAN (> 10 Mbit/s)

Body area networks

Nostalgia

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Telecommunication and Information Everywhere – an Old Vision (1895)

F.Ma. 70

Carl Stauber „Die Zukunft des Telefons“

Telecommunication and Information Everywhere – an Old Vision (1882)

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Telecommunication and Information Everywhere – an Old Vision (1882)

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Four Reasons for Ubicomp

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4th Reason: Better Sensors

Very small cameras and microphones

pattern recognition, assisted by heuristics („user is in a meeting…“) speaker recognition, speech controlled devices

Fingerprint sensor on mobile objects

(„we already know this guy“)

Many other types of sensors (e.g., „location“) Autonomous perception of the user‘s environment

establishing contextual relations recognition of objects

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Example: Fingerprint Sensor

CMOS silicon chip Thermal imaging 0.4 mm x 14 mm sensing area Finger “sweeping” interface

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Example: Standalone Radio Sensors

No external power supply

energy from the actuation process piezoelectric and pyroelectric materials transform changes in pressure or temperature into energy RF signal is transmitted via an antenna (20 m distance)

image source: Siemens

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Radio Sensors - Applications

Mobile devices Wireless light switch Inventory control Fire detectors Temperature surveillance Remote control ...

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The 4 (Technology-based!) Reasons for Ubicomp

Moore‘s Law New materials Progress in communication technology Better sensors

Other reasons?

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Technology Trends

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image source: IBM

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I n t e r n e t b a c k b

• n

e / L A N a n d O p t i c a l B a n d w i d t h s ( 1 . 5 y e a r s )

Growth

1024 2048

Years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 512 256 128

64 32 16 8 4 2

Processor Power (2.0 years) Home / WAN Bandwidth (1 year) D i s k S e e k R a t e ( 1 6 y e a r s ) D i s k T r a n s f e r R a t e ( 2 . 1 y e a r s

)

I / O Bus Rate (3.4 years) P e r s

• n

a l W i r e l e s s B a n d w i d t h ( 3 . 5 y e a r s )

Memory

Evolution Speed of Crucial Technologies

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Diverging Growth Factors

performance (log) time now

bandwidth (wired) storage cpu wireless bandwidth batteries

Impact on system architectures and paradigms?

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image source: IBM

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Consequences?

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All Trends Together Lead to a New Era

Progress in

computing speed communication bandwidth material sciences sensor technology computer science concepts miniaturization energy usage battery technique display technologies price ... Pervasive Computing Ubiquitous Computing Ambient Intelligence Disappearing Computer Invisible Computing

Friedemann Mattern

F.Ma. 85

historically: industrialization, electricity, trains and automo- biles, electronic mass media implies therefore eventually also ethical questions social adaptation to technical impacts needs some time since this is an evolutionary process

(willingness to learn, generational aspects,…)

Impact: Evolution vs. Revolution

Performance Time „revolutio- nary“ new application domains

Technology and science have a major impact

• n our society and the world we live

Impact

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Ron Rivest: The Digital Revolution Reverses Defaults

What was once forgotten is now stored forever What was once private is now public What was once hard to copy is now trivial to duplicate

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Conclusions

Ubiquitous computing technologies will have a major impact on our society and the world we live Economic, social, cultural consequences?

whole new industry to build and manage an intelligent infrastructure?

Challenges

technical infrastructure security, privacy, dependability ...

The Internet only connected computers, now we begin to network all things

image: EU Disappearing Computer Initiative

Ubiquitous & Pervasive Computing:

A Technology-driven Motivation

März 2000 Dagstuhl, August 2002

Friedemann Mattern

ETH Zürich

ET ETH

F.Ma. 89

The End