TURKISH ECONOMY April 2013 Macroeconomic Performance (2009 - 2011) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TURKISH ECONOMY April 2013 Macroeconomic Performance (2009 - 2011) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 17, 2023 284 likes •529 views

Republic of Turkey Undersecretariat of Treasury TURKISH ECONOMY April 2013 Macroeconomic Performance (2009 - 2011) GDP Growth (%) Growth in Total Domestic Demand (%) 10 9.2 8.8 25 8 20 15 6 10 4 5 0 2 -5 0 -10 -2 -15 -20 -4

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SLIDE 1

TURKISH ECONOMY

Republic of Turkey Undersecretariat of Treasury

April 2013

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SLIDE 2

Macroeconomic Performance (2009 - 2011)

Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT, BRSA

  • 4.8

9.2 8.8

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 2009 2010 2011

GDP Growth (%) 2 Growth in Total Domestic Demand (%)

  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 2009-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

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SLIDE 3

Rebalancing in 2012

Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT, BRSA 3

8.0 7.3 6.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Program proj. Revised est. Outturn

Current Account Deficit/ GDP (2012, %)

10 15 20 25 30 35 2011-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2012-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Credit Growth (fx adjusted, annual % change)

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SLIDE 4

Strong Employment Performance Continued in 2012

Source: TURKSTAT, International Labor Organization (ILO)

Total Change in Employment (thousand people) Turkey Change in the Unemployment Rate (between 2012 Q3 and 2009 Q3, % points) Unemployment Rate and Total Employment

16.2 10 20 30 40 50 60 Greece** Spain Croatia Portugal Italy Slovakia Latvia*** Ireland Hungary** Poland Bulgaria Cyprus*** France Sweden Lithuania Slovenia*** Romania*** Czech… United… Belgium Finland Luxembourg Estonia** Malta Turkey*** Denmark Netherlands Austria Norway*** Germany

Youth Unemployment Rate (*) (seasonally adjusted, ages 15-24, %)

(*) November 2012 (**) October 2012 (***) September 2012 Source: EUROSTAT. Euro Area (average)

4

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SLIDE 5

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt in 2012

1,5 2,3 2.0 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 2,2 2,4 2,6 Target Revised est. Outturn

Central Government Budget Deficit / GDP (%)

1,7 1,7 1,4 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 Target Revised est. Outturn*

General Government Overall Deficit (excl. privatization, % GDP)

(*) Provisional Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, MoF, MoD, TURKSTAT 5

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SLIDE 6

6

GDP Growth Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Inflation Rate (%) Current Account Deficit / GDP (%)

Medium Term Program (2013-2015)

Source: MoD, 2013-2015 Medium Term Program

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SLIDE 7

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt (2013-2015)

2.2 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2013 2014 2015

Central Government Budget Deficit / GDP (%)

33.0 31.0 35.0 25 30 35 2013 2014 2015

EU Defined General Gov't Gross Debt Stock (% GDP)

0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2013 2014 2015

IMF Defined Public Sector Primary Balance (% GDP) Source: MoD, 2013-2015 Medium Term Program

2.1 1.8 1.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2013 2014 2015

General Government Overall Deficit (excl. privatization, % GDP) 7

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SLIDE 8

Key Factors Supporting Macroeconomic Stability and Strong Growth Prospects

 Structural Measures to Address Challenges in External Balance  Sound Public Finance and Debt Structure  Strong Banking Sector  Low Level of Household Indebtness  Domestic and External Confidence  Favorable Demographics  Improved Social Inclusion

8

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SLIDE 9

9

Structural Measures to Address Challenges in External Balance

 Increasing private savings

New incentive structure for Private Pension System

 Reducing Import-Dependency on Energy

Renewable Energy, utilizing huge domestic lignite potential, energy efficiency, nuclear energy

 Diversification of Export Markets and Products  Increasing Competitiveness

New Investment Incentive System

R&D and Innovation Support Programs

Labor Market Reforms

 Improving the Quality of Financing

New Capital Markets Law

Tax support to Venture Capital Funds, Business Angels, Equity Investment Funds, portfolio investment companies established in Turkey

Lower withholding tax rate on long term deposits

Legislation on lease certificate issuance

Istanbul Finance Center Project

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SLIDE 10

Private Pension System

Source : Pension Monitoring Center

Number of Participants (million)

10

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SLIDE 11

Export Markets Diversification (% of total exports)

11

EU Africa and Middle East

Source: TURKSTAT

10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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SLIDE 12

Export Products Diversification (% of total exports)

Source: TURKSTAT

12

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SLIDE 13

13

Argentina Russia Japan France Ireland Korea Poland Indonesia Brazil India Canada Germany Greece Italy Romania China Portugal Mexico South Africa Czech Rep. Spain Turkey United Kingdom United States Australia Saudi Arabia

  • 30
  • 15

15 30 45 60 75 90 105

  • 14
  • 12
  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 Debt Stock (% GDP) Budget Balance (% GDP)

Change in General Government Debt Stock and Budget Balance between 2007 and 2012

Source: IMF, Fiscal Monitor April 2013

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SLIDE 14

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, MoF, MoD, TURKSTAT (*) Provisional 14

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SLIDE 15

Key Public Debt Indicators

41.9 53.7 58.5 62.4 62.8 68.7 66.2 70.9 73.3 70.4 72.7 72.9 58.1 46.3 41.5 37.6 37.2 31.3 33.8 29.1 26.7 29.6 27.3 27.1 25 50 75 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feb

Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)

TL Foreign Exch.

Average Maturity of Domestic Borrowing (months)

Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)

48.9 53.8 50.2 54.0 55.8 57.0 53.4 56.0 59.2 59.8 59.5 51.1 46.2 49.8 46.0 44.4 43.0 46.6 44.0 40.8 40.2 40.5

25 50 75 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feb Fixed Floating

9.4 11.6 14.8 31.7 35.3 44.1 44.7 60.8 70.3 27.7 28.0 34.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Apr

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury International Bond Issuances (billion USD) 15

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SLIDE 16

Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio in Selected Emerging Markets (%, 2012*)

Banking and Household Sector Indicators

25.1 30.9 28.2 23.7 21.9 18.9 18.0 20.6 19.0 16.5 17.9 16.8 17.6

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-02 2013-02

Source: BRSA, IMF-FSI

Household Liabilities (% of GDP) Asset Quality (NPL Ratio, %)

21.2 11.5 6.0 4.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 5.3 3.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 7.6 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7

4 8 12 16 20 24

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-02

Gross Net

18.1 17.9 17.6 17.3 16.7 16.3 16.0 15.9 15.7 14.8 14.6 14.1 13.7 13.6 13.3 12.9 4 8 12 16 20

Colombia Turkey Malaysia Indonesia Brazil Thailand Mexico Hungary Czech Republic Poland Romania Korea Russia India Chile China

10 12 14 15 17 19 21 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Euro Area 2006-10 Average

(*) CAR values for Czech Rep., Korea and India are as of 2012Q3 and China is as of 2012Q2.

16

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SLIDE 17

Real Sector and Consumer Confidence

17

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Jan-2007 Apr-2007 Jul-2007 Oct-2007 Jan-2008 Apr-2008 Jul-2008 Oct-2008 Jan-2009 Apr-2009 Jul-2009 Oct-2009 Jan-2010 Apr-2010 Jul-2010 Oct-2010 Jan-2011 Apr-2011 Jul-2011 Oct-2011 Jan-2012 Apr-2012 Jul-2012 Oct-2012 Jan-2013

Real Sector Confidence Index* (LHS) Consumer Confidence Index (RHS)

(*) Seasonally adjusted. Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT.

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SLIDE 18

TL Benchmark Bond Yield (%)

18 Source: Bloomberg.

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13

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SLIDE 19

19

Source: Bloomberg.

CDS Spreads (*) (5 year, $ denominated, basis points)

100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

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SLIDE 20

Turkey’s Credit Rating (2009-2013)

Ba3 /Positive

(18.09.2009)

Ba2 /Stable

(08.01.2010)

Ba1 /Positive

(05.10.2010)

Ba1 /Positive

(20.06.2012)

BB- /Positive

(27.09.2009)

BB+ /Stable

(03.12.2009)

BB+ /Positive

(24.11.2010)

BB+ /Stable

(24.11.2011)

BBB- /Stable

(05.10.2012)

Fitch

BB- /Stable

(17.09.2010)

BB /Positive

(19.02.2010)

BB /Stable (01.05.2012) BB+ /Stable

(27.03.2013)

S&P

Investment Grade

Moody’s

20

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SLIDE 21

Total Fixed Investment (constant prices, 2007=100) Demographic Projections (Working Age Population*, 2011=100)

Labor and Capital Stock Indicators

80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Turkey Northern Europe Europe (*) Number of people between ages of 15 and 64. Source: United Nations

Labor Force Participation Rates (seasonally adjusted, %)

Source: TURKSTAT Source: TURKSTAT

21

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Total Dependency Ratio (*)

(*) [Age 0-14 + Age 65+ ]/ Age 15-64 Source: United Nations Western Europe Europe Northern Europe Turkey

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SLIDE 22

Change in the Gini Coefficient (Percentage Points) (*) Increase in Households’ Income (2002-2011, Real, %)

Improved Income Distribution

Income Quintiles

Highest Income Quintile Lowest Income Quintile Source: TURKSTAT

  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 Turkey Mexico Chile Greece Hungary Italy New Zealand Netherlands Czech Rep. OECD-20 Japan Norway UK France USA Australia Luxemburg Germany Finland Denmark İsrael Canada Sweden

(*) Difference between the late 2000s and mid-90s Source: OECD “Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising”.

30.3 23.8 20.9 16.4 13.3 8.4 6.8 4.4 3.7 2.8 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Daily Income Below 4.30 $ (*) (% of Total Population)

(*) Purchasing Power Parity Adjusted US Dollars Source: TURKSTAT

P90/P10 Ratio (*)

(*) The ratio of the average household disposable income in the highest 10% income quintile to average household disposable income in the lowest 10% income quintile. Source: TURKSTAT

Trendline

22

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SLIDE 23

Average Growth Rate Trend (*) (2011-2020, %)

5.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 China India Indonesia Turkey Chile Brazil South Africa Russian Federation Estonia Mexico Norway Australia Korea Slovak Republic Poland Israel Sweden Czech Republic Luxembourg United States Hungary New Zealand Ireland Iceland Canada Finland Spain France Switzerland Belgium Austria United Kingdom Slovenia Netherlands Germany Denmark Greece Italy Japan Portugal

World Average: %4.1

(*) in USD 2005 PPPs. Source: OECD

23

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SLIDE 24

THANK YOU For further information please contact our Investor Relations Office http://www.hazine.gov.tr/iro.htm E-mail: iro@hazine.gov.tr Tel: +90 312 204 7364 Fax: +90 312 204 7366