Trends & Property Values AASBO November 2012 Bi-Monthly Meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Trends & Property Values AASBO November 2012 Bi-Monthly Meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Trends & Property Values AASBO November 2012 Bi-Monthly Meeting Wednesday, November 14, 2012 Megan Wienand Judy Richardson Vice President Vice President RBC Capital Markets Stone & Youngberg, (602) 381-5367 A Division of Stifel


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Trends & Property Values

AASBO November 2012 Bi-Monthly Meeting Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Megan Wienand Judy Richardson Vice President Vice President RBC Capital Markets Stone & Youngberg, (602) 381-5367 A Division of Stifel Nicolaus (megan.wienand@rbccm.com (602) 794-4012 jrichardson@syllc.com

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Disclaimer

RBC Capital Markets, LLC (“RBC CM”) is providing the information contained in this document for discussion purposes only and not in connection with RBC CM serving as Underwriter, Investment Banker, municipal advisor, financial advisor or fiduciary to a financial transaction participant or any other person or entity. RBC CM will not have any duties or liability to any person or entity in connection with the information being provided herein. The information provided is not intended to be and should not be construed as “advice” within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of

  • 1934. The financial transaction participants should consult with its own legal, accounting, tax, financial and other advisors, as applicable, to the extent it

deems appropriate. This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit of and internal use by the recipient for the purpose of considering the transaction or transactions contemplated herein. This presentation is confidential and proprietary to RBC Capital Markets, LLC (“RBC CM”) and may not be disclosed, reproduced, distributed or used for any other purpose by the recipient without RBCCM’s express written consent. By acceptance of these materials, and notwithstanding any other express or implied agreement, arrangement, or understanding to the contrary, RBC CM, its affiliates and the recipient agree that the recipient (and its employees, representatives, and other agents) may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind from the commencement of discussions, the tax treatment, structure or strategy of the transaction and any fact that may be relevant to understanding such treatment, structure or strategy, and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to the recipient relating to such tax treatment, structure, or strategy. The information and any analyses contained in this presentation are taken from, or based upon, information obtained from the recipient or from publicly available sources, the completeness and accuracy of which has not been independently verified, and cannot be assured by RBC CM. The information and any analyses in these materials reflect prevailing conditions and RBC CM’s views as of this date, all of which are subject to change. To the extent projections and financial analyses are set forth herein, they may be based on estimated financial performance prepared by or in consultation with the recipient and are intended only to suggest reasonable ranges of results. The printed presentation is incomplete without reference to the oral presentation or other written materials that supplement it. IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: RBC CM and its affiliates do not provide tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as tax advice. Any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) (i) was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by you for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties; and (ii) was written in connection with the promotion or marketing of the matters addressed herein. Accordingly, you should seek advice based upon your particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor.

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Section One

Fiscal Year 2014

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Secondary Assessed Valuation Changes

Source: Arizona Tax Research Association.

County Maricopa 17.70%

  • 0.55%
  • 14.27%
  • 22.02%
  • 11.25%

Pima 16.72% 2.77%

  • 5.26%
  • 9.57%
  • 3.28%

Pinal 47.75%

  • 1.47%
  • 21.34%
  • 17.01%
  • 1.88%

Yuma 23.66% 7.94%

  • 3.99%
  • 7.52%
  • 6.55%

Other Counties 25.69% 3.31%

  • 9.53%
  • 12.32%
  • 6.06%

FY 2013 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011

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4

Arizona Market Situation

  • Pending foreclosures down 73% from peak
  • Delinquent home loans down 48% from peak
  • New home sales are up 55% - supply constrained
  • Overall supply of homes for sale remains low
  • Average $ / sq. ft. up 25% in last year
  • Labor shortage in skilled construction trades

Source: W.P. Carey School of Business - Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice .

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Delinquency & Foreclosures

Source: W.P. Carey School of Business - Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice .

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Foreclosures

Source: W.P. Carey School of Business - Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice .

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New Homes

  • Rising from an unprecedented 4 year low
  • Demand since January 2012 is very strong
  • Spec supply at a 7 year low
  • Builders capping sales to conserve lots
  • Active subdivision down 18% since January
  • 63% will sell out within 12 months

Source: W.P. Carey School of Business - Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice .

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New Home Sales – Maricopa County

Source: W.P. Carey School of Business - Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice .

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Outlook

  • Low inventory will cause prices to rise
  • Investors will slow down as cap rates fall
  • Foreclosures will quickly drop to normal levels
  • Short sales will continue but at lower volumes
  • Builders will slowly ramp up production
  • Faster if a solution is found for labor shortages

Source: W.P. Carey School f Business - Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice .

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FY 2014 Values Conclusion

  • What does all of this mean for FY 2014?

−While the housing market seems to have turned and is steadily rebuilding itself, the impact will not be felt until FY 2015. −Since assessed valuations for FY 2014 are based on fall 2011 values, FY 2014 AVs are still falling. −From preliminary values we have seen from Maricopa, Pinal and Pima Counties, assessed valuations are still on the decline for next fiscal year. ~ 5% declines on average

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FY 2014 Maricopa County Estimated Full Cash Values by Property Type

FCV % Property Type FY 2013 FY 2014 Change Vacant Land 17,000 15,770

  • 7.24%

Single Family Residential 11,810 109,100 823.79% Condominium 70,500 61,000

  • 13.48%

Apartements 71,700 69,600

  • 2.93%

Commercial 392,901 345,263

  • 12.12%

Manufactured Housing 49,695 47,877

  • 3.66%

Median Full Cash Values

Source: Maricopa County Assessor.

11

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Source: Maricopa County Assessor.

FY 2014 Maricopa County Estimated Full Cash Values by City

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FCV % FCV % City FY 2013 FY 2014 Change City FY 2013 FY 2014 Change No City/Town 142,000 135,200

  • 4.79%

Tempe 124,500 107,500

  • 13.65%

Avondale 83,700 76,300

  • 8.84%

Tolleson 33,000 32,700

  • 0.91%

Buckeye 74,800 69,300

  • 7.35%

Wickenburg 116,800 114,600

  • 1.88%

Chandler 136,600 127,700

  • 6.52%

Youngtown 37,000 36,700

  • 0.81%

El Mirage 56,800 53,500

  • 5.81%

Carefree 409,900 406,800

  • 0.76%

Gila Bend 30,100 26,800

  • 10.96%

Cave Creek 315,000 309,500

  • 1.75%

Gilbert 143,300 135,300

  • 5.58%

Litchfield Park 141,300 131,300

  • 7.08%

Glendale 81,000 72,100

  • 10.99%

Fountail Hills 206,000 204,600

  • 0.68%

Goodyear 124,100 118,200

  • 4.75%

Queen Creek 148,300 137,700

  • 7.15%

Guadalupe 35,500 31,750

  • 10.56%

Sun City 77,700 69,500

  • 10.55%

Mesa 100,700 91,500

  • 9.14%

Sun City West 130,300 122,800

  • 5.76%

Paradise Valley 828,250 833,500 0.63% Sun City Grand 202,100 192,600

  • 4.70%

Peoria 118,700 108,700

  • 8.42%

Sun Lakes 160,000 151,200

  • 5.50%

Phoenix 78,300 69,000

  • 11.88%

Ahwatukee 165,600 154700

  • 6.58%

Scottsdale 227,000 220,500

  • 2.86%

Total 111,000 101,600

  • 8.47%

Surprise 96,600 91,100

  • 5.69%

Median Full Cash Values Median Full Cash Values

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Fiscal Year 2015

Section Two

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Current Values Become FY 2015 AV

  • Home values are up in Maricopa and Pinal counties
  • AZ Republic 10/29/12:

−Metro Phoenix average home prices up 35% in past year −Most economists predict continued increases for the next 3 years (10- 12%/year)

  • Hard to get information on rest of state, but increases are probably

less in areas where home values didn’t fall as much

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Inconsistent Price Increases

  • Across state
  • Within metro Phoenix, prices in one zip code increased 45% in the first

8 months of 2012 while other areas decreased as much as 15%

  • Examples of ranges in zip codes within cities:

−Chandler: -1% to +23% −Glendale: -10% to +27% −Mesa: +9% to +34% −Scottsdale: 0% to +24%

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Inconsistent Price Increases

  • Some reports on home price changes compare with the same month

in the prior year

−This causes numbers to be inconsistent and not helpful in projecting impact on assessed valuation −For example, Scottsdale

− June 2012 up 13% over June 2011 − July 2012 up 9% from July 2011 − August 2012 up 6% over August 2011

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Impact on FY 2015 District AV

  • Current home price increases don’t represent increases over the

current (FY 2013) AV

  • These are increases over next year’s (FY 2014) AV (based on fall

2011 values)

  • AV in many districts will decrease in FY 2014
  • Therefore, FY 2015 residential AV increases may just bring districts up

to where they are now in FY 2013

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Impact on FY 2015 District AV

  • Total district AV increase may be less than the % increase in home

values

− Increased residential AV will be partially offset by Class 1 Assessment

Ratio decrease from 19.5% to 19% −Values for other classes of property may not be increasing at all or as much −These factors may be offset in some districts by new construction (new home building has doubled this year)

  • Prop 117 limits AV increase of an individual property to 5% a year
  • It won’t be in effect for FY 2015 (first impact is in FY 2016)
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Impact on Taxpayers

  • If home values increase more than the total district AV increases

−Shift in tax burden – residential taxes go up, other property taxes go down −This may not be good for elections in Nov 2014

  • Value changes can be very uneven within districts

−Even if there is not a large overall increase in home values in a district −Taxpayers in areas where home prices have gone up a lot will be unhappy

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Impact on Taxpayers

  • AV changes in Maricopa and Pinal Counties tend to drive statewide

AV changes

− Any increase in statewide AV will cause the QTR to go down

−This will help homeowners whose home values have not increased much −November 2014 could be a good year for an election in a district with stable home prices

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Questions ????