SLIDE 1
Transport trajectories and cross-shelf delivery of larval arrowtooth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transport trajectories and cross-shelf delivery of larval arrowtooth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transport trajectories and cross-shelf delivery of larval arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias ) to suitable nursery habitats in the Gulf of Alaska Esther Goldstein, Janet Duffy-Anderson, Jodi Pirtle, Matthew Wilson, William Stockhausen,
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Subpopulations Pelagic larvae Settle to obligate nursery habitats Population connectivity à management designations Recruitment à fisheries & ecological impacts
Management & ecology of marine fish populations
SLIDE 4
Oceanographic transport of larvae & Delivery to suitable nursery habitats
Recruitment controls
SLIDE 5
Arrowtooth flounder
- Important predator
- High abundance in the past decade
Gulf of Alaska & arrowtooth flounder
SLIDE 6
Gulf of Alaska & arrowtooth flounder
*adapted from Stabeno et al. (2014)
Arrowtooth flounder
- Important predator
- High abundance in the past decade
SLIDE 7
Arrowtooth flounder life-history ROMs
http://west.rssoffice.com/pws_roms?variable=curr Stockhausen et al. in revision
1) Oceanographic transport of larvae Individual-Based Biophysical Model
Recruitment controls
+
SLIDE 8
http://west.rssoffice.com/pws_roms?variable=curr Stockhausen et al. in revision
Recruitment controls
Arrowtooth flounder life-history
+
ROMs
1) Oceanographic transport of larvae Individual-Based Biophysical Model
SLIDE 9
http://west.rssoffice.com/pws_roms?variable=curr Stockhausen et al. in revision
Recruitment controls
Arrowtooth flounder life-history
+
ROMs
1) Oceanographic transport of larvae Individual-Based Biophysical Model
SLIDE 10
http://west.rssoffice.com/pws_roms?variable=curr Stockhausen et al. in revision
Recruitment controls
Arrowtooth flounder life-history
+
ROMs
1) Oceanographic transport of larvae Individual-Based Biophysical Model
SLIDE 11
http://west.rssoffice.com/pws_roms?variable=curr Stockhausen et al. in revision
Recruitment controls
Arrowtooth flounder life-history
+
ROMs
1) Oceanographic transport of larvae Individual-Based Biophysical Model
SLIDE 12
- Presence of 40-80 mm arrowtooth flounder
- Depth, Bathymetric Position Index, Tidal Current Speed, Sand Substrate
Slope, Sea Whip Presence, Bottom Temperature (ROMs), Aspect Eastness, Aspect Northness
- Test AUC 0.78
Recruitment controls
2) Delivery to suitable nursery habitat Maximum entropy model
SLIDE 13
Threshold value ≥.36
Recruitment controls
- Presence of 40-80 mm arrowtooth flounder
- Depth, Bathymetric Position Index, Tidal Current Speed, Sand Substrate
Slope, Sea Whip Presence, Bottom Temperature (ROMs), Aspect Eastness, Aspect Northness
- Test AUC 0.78
2) Delivery to suitable nursery habitat Maximum entropy model
SLIDE 14
IBM output figure
Recruitment controls
1) Oceanographic transport of larvae (2000-2011) 2) Delivery to nursery habitats (habitat suitability) à Particle tracking + habitat suitability à Settlement competency at ~ 8 months with 7 days window
2011
SLIDE 15
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
Suitable habitat Reduces total survivorship Mirrors inter-annual variability in total survivorship
Total Suitable habitat
SLIDE 16
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
Suitable habitat Reduces total survivorship Mirrors inter-annual variability in total survivorship Transport routes à similar within-year mechanisms?
Total Suitable habitat
SLIDE 17
Spawn ~300-600 m deep
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
SLIDE 18
Spawn ~300-600 m deep Offshore advection vs shelf?
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
SLIDE 19
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
Spawn ~300-600 m deep Offshore advection vs shelf? Cross-shelf transport
SLIDE 20
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
Spawn ~300-600 m deep Offshore advection vs shelf? Cross-shelf transport àCanyons as conduits
SLIDE 21
Suitable habitat Offshore advection Cross-shelf transport
- Canyons as conduits
Bathymetric Position Index & Bathymetry
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
SLIDE 22
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
Total Suitable habitat Offshore Offshore & suitable habitat Offshore, Offshore, no
- Most individuals offshore
SLIDE 23
- Most individuals offshore
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
Total Suitable habitat Offshore Offshore & suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat Offshore, no canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 24
- Most individuals offshore
- Canyons buffer inter-annual variability – persistent & reliable
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
Total Suitable habitat Offshore Offshore & suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat Offshore, no canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 25
Transport & population connectivity Connectivity patterns from spawning à settlement
SLIDE 26
1 50 25
Transport & population connectivity
SLIDE 27
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Transport & population connectivity - survivors
Total
SLIDE 28
Transport & population connectivity - survivors
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total
SLIDE 29
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2009 2008 2006 2010 2007 2011
Transport & population connectivity – suitable habitats
Total Suitable habitats
SLIDE 30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2008 2010 2011
Transport & population connectivity – canyons
Total Suitable habitats Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 31
Retention à high survivorship à patterns differ via canyon transport Transport & population connectivity
Total Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 32
Retention à high survivorship à patterns differ via canyon transport Mechanisms à dispersal & retention Transport & population connectivity
Total Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 33
2000
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 34
2001
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 35
2002
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 36
2003
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 37
2004
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 38
2005
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 39
2006
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 40
2007 2007
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 41
2008
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 42
2009
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 43
2010
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 44
2010
Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
2011
Trajectories: suitable habitats via canyons
SLIDE 45
Trajectories: high quality habitats via canyons
Total Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Canyons buffer inter-annual fluctuations in survivorship despite transport variability
SLIDE 46
Canyons buffer inter-annual fluctuations in survivorship despite transport variability Influence of eddies on canyon transport, survival, & retention?
Trajectories: high quality habitats via canyons
Total Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 47
2002
Total Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
Eddies: survival & retention
SLIDE 48
EKE
Eddies: survival & retention
SLIDE 49
Survival & retention influenced by sub-regional EKE? Eddies: survival & retention
SLIDE 50
Eddies: survival & retention
PC1 & PC2 ~70% Total Suitable habitat Canyons
SLIDE 51
Total Suitable habitat Canyons
Eddies: survival & retention
Regional Westward: Higher settlement
SLIDE 52
Total Suitable habitat Canyons
Eddies: survival & retention
EKE + total settled
SLIDE 53
Total Suitable habitat Canyons
Eddies: survival & retention
EKE + total settled + retention
SLIDE 54
Total Suitable habitat Canyons
Eddies: survival & retention
EKE + total settled + retention canyons à EKE & retention coupled
SLIDE 55
Arrowtooth flounder in the Gulf of Alaska
E à W transport Eddies à high recruitment & survival Canyons à reliable routes to suitable habitats influenced by eddies
SLIDE 56
Arrowtooth flounder in the Gulf of Alaska
E à W transport Eddies à high recruitment & survival Canyons à reliable routes to suitable habitats influenced by eddies
Recruitment controls
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
SLIDE 57
Arrowtooth flounder in the Gulf of Alaska
E à W transport Eddies à high recruitment & survival Canyons à reliable routes to suitable habitats influenced by eddies
Recruitment controls
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
- Habitat requirements à decrease survivorship
- Eddies & Retention à increase survivorship in advective systems
- Persistent canyon features à low variability in survivorship
à influenced by transient oceanography
SLIDE 58
Acknowledgments
Funding Thanks & contributors
NOAA EcoFOCI GOAIERP collaborators Wei Cheng Carol Ladd
SLIDE 59
Suitable habitat Offshore advection Cross-shelf transport
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
SLIDE 60
Suitable habitat Offshore advection
Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
SLIDE 61
Advected offshore in both scenarios à Cross-shelf transport? Oceanographic transport & suitable nursery habitats
Total Suitable habitat Offshore Offshore & suitable habitat
SLIDE 62
Survivorship à Habitat requirements = lower survivorship à Canyon transport = buffer inter-annual variability Connectivity à Dispersal = E to W à Retention = high survivorship Transport & population connectivity
Total Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 63
Trajectories: 2000-2011
Low quality Suitable Canyons
SLIDE 64
Trajectories: 2000-2011
Low quality Canyons Suitable
SLIDE 65
Trajectories: 2000-2011
Low quality Canyons Suitable
SLIDE 66
2000 2000
Trajectories: suitable habitats
Suitable habitat
SLIDE 67
2001
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 68
2002
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 69
2003
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 70
2004
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 71
2005
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 72
2006
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 73
2007
Trajectories: high quality habitats
Suitable habitat
SLIDE 74
2008
Trajectories: high quality habitats
Suitable habitat
SLIDE 75
2009
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 76
2010
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 77
2011
Suitable habitat
Trajectories: suitable habitats
SLIDE 78
Eddies may influence survival & canyon transport
Total Suitable habitat Offshore, canyon, & suitable habitat
SLIDE 79
Eddies: survival & retention
6-13 14-21 22-30 31-38 39-46
Total Total & suitable habitat EKE: settlement in W, CW, & C Canyons EKE: settlement in C & CW Suitable habitat Canyons
SLIDE 80
Transport & population connectivity Mechanisms: trajectories, dispersal, & retention
SLIDE 81
Low quality
On & Off-shelf Shelikof Strait Canyons Western GOA
High quality Canyons
Trajectories: 2000-2011
SLIDE 82
Low quality
On & Off-shelf Shelikof Strait Canyons Western GOA
High quality Canyons
Trajectories: 2000-2011
SLIDE 83
Survival & retention influenced by sub-regional EKE?
6-13 14-21 22-30 31-38 39-46
2002
Eddies: survival & retention
SLIDE 84
6-13 14-21 22-30 31-38 39-46