Transport and Climate Change in the Asia/Pacific Region Karl Peet, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transport and Climate Change in the Asia/Pacific Region

Karl Peet, Research Director, SLoCaT Partnership 9th UNCRD EST Forum Kathmandu, Nepal November 2015

Transport Emissions Trends in EST Region

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Transport CO2 ( BAU) Transport CO2 Emissions (MT) Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa South Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean North America Europe & Central Asia

Transport Emissions Growth in INDC countries Business as Usual (BAU)

Source : Analysis by SLoCaT considering 138 countries with INDC commitments

3948 4612 5282 6482 8203

Transport Emissions Growth in EST countries Business-as-Usual (BAU)

Source : Analysis by SLoCaT considering 138 countries with INDC commitments

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Transport Emissions (MT) Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Laos Maldives Mongolia Myanmar Nepal Phillipines Republic of Korea Russia Singapore Srilanka Thailand Vietnam

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2020 2030 Transport CO2 ( BAU) Transport CO2 (Low Carbon) Transport CO2 Emission (MT)

Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa South Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean North America Europe & Central Asia

Transport Emissions Mitigation Potential in INDC Countries Low-Carbon Scenario

2DS

Source : Analysis by SLoCaT considering 138 countries with INDC commitments

3948 4612 5282 6482 8203 5850 6244 4796

Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDCs) in EST Region

Treatment of Transport Sector in INDCs Global and EST Countries

Global EST Number of INDCs 128 19 Transport sector prioritized in INDC (%) 95% 100% Transport sector CO2 Reduction Target Identified (%) 10% 11% Transport sector other targets Identified (%) 18% 37% Transport Sector Mitigation Strategies Identified (%) 61% 74% Transport Adaptation Issues Prioritized (%) 16% 26%

Source : SLoCaT Analysis of 128 INDCs as submitted to UNFCCC as of November 1

Transport Sector Mitigation Strategies in INDCs: Modes and Sub-Sectors

75% 25% 52% 22% 1% 14% 4% 8% 65% 35% 46% 23% 0% 19% 4% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Passenger Freight Urban Heavy Rail High Speed Rail Inland waterways Aviation Walking & Cycling Transport Modes highlighted in INDC Transport Sub-sectors Mode Share in INDCs when modes highlighted Share in INDCs Global Share in INDCs EST

Source : SLoCaT Analysis of 128 INDCs as submitted to UNFCCC

Transport Sector Mitigation Strategies in INDCs: ‘Avoid-Shift-Improve’ Typology

7% 8% 29% 33% 64% 58% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Global EST Improve Shift Avoid

Source : SLoCaT Analysis of 128 INDCs as submitted to UNFCCC

Transport Sector Mitigation Strategies in INDCs: Specific Measures Proposed

2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 6 8 14 13 1 3 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 5 12 7 17 35 48 20 40 60 80

Parking Reform 2 & 3 Wheelers measures Intelligent Transport System Land use/Urban form Fuel Subsidy removal Mobility Plan/Other Plan Promoting Walking & Cycling Fuel Quality & Vehicle Emission… Inspection & maintenance Development of Road Infrastructure Vehicle Restrictions - Import/Age… Green Freight Measures Energy Efficiency Improvement Public Transport Improvement Decarbonizing Fuel…

EST Region Rest of the World Number of strategies

Source : SLoCaT Analysis of 128 INDCs as submitted to UNFCCC

Adaptation in INDCs

Number of INDCs Submitted INDCs that Specify General Adaptation Measures INDCs Prioritizing Transport Sector for Adaptation INDCs that Specify Transport Adaptation Measures

129 109 21 6

Transport Sector Adaptation Strategies in INDCs

Source : SLoCaT Analysis of 128 INDCs as submitted to UNFCCC

Mitigation in INDCs

Number of INDCs Submitted INDCs that Specify General Mitigation Measures INDCs Prioritizing Transport Sector for Mitigation INDCs that Specify Transport Mitigation Measures

129 129 96 81

Country Transport-Specific Adaptation Measures Bangladesh Adaptation priorities include climate resilient infrastructure, and

improvement of drainage systems. Projects underway through the Inland Water Transport Authority and the Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges.

Belize

Vulnerability assessment of transport infrastructure, particularly in urban areas and areas critical to sustaining the country’s productive sectors (tourism, agriculture and ports).

Gambia

Improved resilience of road networks under changing climate conditions.

Madagasca r

Effective application of existing or newly established sectorial policies, including flood-resistant terrestrial transport infrastructure standards.

Maldives

Coastal protection measures to protect the shoreline of Hulhule, the island which contains Ibrahim Nasir International Airport, as well as for

• ther air and sea ports.

Republic of Moldova

Analyzing adaptation options, including altering assumptions about infrastructure design and operations, and incorporating uncertainty into long-range decision making.

Transport Sector Adaptation Strategies in INDCs

Source : SLoCaT Analysis of 128 INDCs as submitted to UNFCCC

Transport and Climate Change Knowledge Products

Transport Emissions Fact Sheet Tier I Data - Bangladesh

20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Transport CO2e Emissions (MT) Year Future (BAU) -Other studies Low Carbon Scenario (studies) CO2e Emissions (MT) Future (BAU) -Official Low Carbon Scenario-Official INDC Transport Target

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2020 2030 Total Transport CO2e Emissions (BAU) Total Transport CO2e Emissions (Low Carbon Scenario) Transport CO2 (MT)

Transport Emissions Fact Sheet Tier II Data – Sri Lanka

Aggregate Transport Emissions in EST countries

Source : Analysis by SLoCaT considering 138 countries with INDC commitments

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Transport Emissions (MT) BAU LCS INDC Transport Targets (2010 share) Aggressive LCS

25%

37% 42%

Conclusions

• Emissions Trends
• BAU transport emissions expected to rise sharply
• Low-carbon scenario can reduce significantly
• Rapid implementation essential to achieving 2DS
• INDCs
• Unprecedented country-level climate planning
• More potential for diversification (Avoid-Shift-Improve)
• Transport adaptation requires greater attention
• Knowledge Products
• Fact sheets can support detailed implementation plans
• Additional data is required at a regional level
• Key opportunities for collaboration in INDCs

Conclusions

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