Threat and Risk Perceptions over the Black Sea A Turkish - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Threat and Risk Perceptions over the Black Sea – A Turkish Perspective

Rear Admiral Cem GÜRDENİZ (LH) Chief , Plans and Policy, Turkish Navy

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Overview – The Black Sea 432 000 Km

2 - 4340 Km

1400 Km.

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Blacksea – Unique Feat ures

Only sea wit h est ablished EEZ and def ined mar it ime border s

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Blacksea – Unique Feat ures

25 int ernat ional agreement in t he last 15 years

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Black Sea – Mar it ime St abilit y

Bilat er al and mult ilat er al init iat ives Mont r eux Convent ion - 1936 * Est ablished Dialogue * Enhanced under st anding & cooper at ion

Mut ual conf idence

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Black Sea – Mult ilat eral I nit iat ives

BLACK SEA NAVAL COOPERATI ON TASK GROUP BLACK SEA ECONOMI C COOPERATI ON ORGANI SATI ON

Polit ical will cooperat ion

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Black Sea – Mar it ime Domain

E E Z

TTW TTW TTW TTW T T W TTW

Mar it ime J urisdict ion

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Black Sea – Securit y

Maj or t err or ist incident - 1996

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Black Sea – Saf et y

Maj or cat ast rophy - 1979

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Black Sea – Securit y Securit y Challanges

Hard issues Sof t challenges

Hard security issues might have implicat ions over t he sof t security challenges such as int er nat ional t err or and cont r aband t r af f icking.

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Black Sea – Securit y

Secur it y of t he mar it ime domain is most af f ect ed by t he incr ease in t he shipping volumes

2500 7500 10000 5000

1996 2000 2004 4248 6093 9339

25 t ankers/ day 1

• 1

7 %

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Black Sea – Energy vs. Securit y

Ankara Istanbul Izmir Adana Samsun Turkey Iran Russian Federation Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakstan Turkmenistan Caspian Sea Black Sea Baku Ceyhan Mediterranean Sea

A decrease in t he mar it ime t r af f ic is expect ed af t er Sept ember 2005.

Baku- Tbilisi- Ceyhan(BTC) Pipeline

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Black Sea – Vulnerabilit ies

Vulner able t o asymmet r ic r isks Vulner able t o accident s

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Black Sea – Adopt ed Measures

• Tr af f ic Regulat ions - VTMI S
• I SPS Code
• Oper at ion Black Sea Harmony
• Sailing Plan Repor t ing Syst em

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Black Sea – Adopt ed Measures

I solat ed cases of illegal act ivit ies 12000 hailings in t he Black Sea 195 in-por t visit by t he CG

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Black Sea – Specif ic I ncident s

... are maj or violat ions of r egulat ions f or t he Turkish St r ait s False Declar at ions... Fuel Smuggling

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Black Sea – I nf ormat ion Exchange

Black Sea Bor der Coor dinat ion and I nf ormat ion Cent er - BBCI C I nf ormat ion has been exchanged over 400 t imes.

I solat ed cases, not syst emat ic pat t erns...

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3 RD BLACKSEA HIGH LEVEL REPRESENTATIVES MEETING 3 RD BLACKSEA HIGH LEVEL REPRESENTATIVES MEETING 31 MARCH 2005 / KIEV 31 MARCH 2005 / KIEV

Black Sea – Mar it ime Risk Assessment

Appr oved and adopt ed t he document of “Maritime Risk Assessment in the Black Sea” indicat ing exist ing r isks.

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Black Sea – Fact s

• Risks of asymmet r ic t hreat and illegal

act ions exist , if not det err ed.

• No syst emat ic illegal act ivit y r elat ed t o

f r ozen conf lict s.

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Black Sea – Risk Management

• Deny pot ent ial t error ist s t o ut ilize Black

Sea mar it ime domain

• Disrupt illegal act ivit ies in t he BS

mar it ime domain

• Develop inf or mat ion exchange mechanism

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we do? is t o be done? Black Sea – Risk Management

What

BLACKSEAFOR Transf ormation

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Black Sea – What We Have Done?

Transforming Transforming BLACKSEAFOR BLACKSEAFOR

HLRM -2 7 Jul 04 HLRM HLRM -

• 2

2 7 Jul 04 7 Jul 04 HLRM-1 18 Jan 04 HLRM HLRM-

• 1

1 18 18 Jan Jan 04 04 HLRM-3 31 Mar 05 HLRM HLRM-

• 3

3 31 Mar 05 31 Mar 05

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Black Sea – What We Have Done?

High High level level representatives representatives decided decided to... to...

1. Est ablish a permanent oper at ion cont r ol cent er 2. Conduct unscheduled act ivat ions 3. Task BSNC t o dr af t a MOU f or inf ormat ion exchange 4. Task BSNC t o dr af t a TOR f or Oper at ion Cont r ol Cent er

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Black Sea – What We Have Done?

Transforming Transforming BLACKSEAFOR BLACKSEAFOR

HLRM -2 7 Jul 04 HLRM HLRM -

• 2

2 7 Jul 04 7 Jul 04 HLEM-1 29-30 Nov 04 HLEM HLEM-

• 1

1 29 29-

• 30

30 Nov Nov 04 04 HLRM-1 18 Jan 04 HLRM HLRM-

• 1

1 18 18 Jan Jan 04 04 HLEM-2/3 2-4 Feb 05 1-2 Jun 05 HLEM HLEM-

• 2/3

2/3 2 2-

• 4

4 Feb Feb 05 05 1 1-

• 2

2 Jun Jun 05 05 HLRM-3 31 Mar 05 HLRM HLRM-

• 3

3 31 Mar 05 31 Mar 05 PGM-1/2/3 Jul-Nov 04-Feb 05 PGM PGM-

• 1/2/

1/2/3 3 Jul Jul-

• Nov

Nov 04 04-

• Feb 05

Feb 05

HLEM (High Level Experts Meeting) HLRM (High Level Representatives Meeting) PGM (Planning Group Meeting) HLEM (High Level Experts Meeting) HLRM (High Level Representatives Meeting) PGM (Planning Group Meeting)

BSNC-04 May 04 BSNC BSNC-

• 04

04 May May 04 04 BSNC-05 18 May 05 BSNC BSNC-

• 05

05 18 18 May May 0 05 5 PGM PGM-

• 4/5

4/5 May May-

• Jun

Jun 05 5

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CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY BUILDING MEASURES IN THE NAVAL FIELD CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY BUILDING MEASURES IN THE NAVAL FIELD

Provided perf ect plat f orm f or cooperat ion against Provided perf ect plat f orm f or cooperat ion against

• rganized crime, smuggling of drugs, arms and
• rganized crime, smuggling of drugs, arms and

radioact ive mat erials, t errorist act ions and illegal radioact ive mat erials, t errorist act ions and illegal immigrat ion. immigrat ion.

CSBM

CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY BUILDING MEASURES

CSBM

CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY BUILDING MEASURES

GALATHEA 2004

Black Sea – What We Have Done?

BLACKSEA PARTNERSHIP-2005

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SEVASTOPOL NOVOROSSİYSK BATUM 4 TH ACTIVATION 1 ST SEA PERIOD 4 TH ACTIVATION 1 ST SEA PERIOD (05 (05-

• 27 AUGUST 2004)

27 AUGUST 2004)

Black Sea – What We Have Done?

rapprochement

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BLACK SEA HARMONY – A New Securit y I nit iat ive 1 Mar ch 2004

v v To assist est ablishment of recognized marit ime picture To assist est ablishment of recognized marit ime picture in the Black Sea along the sea lanes of communicat ion as in the Black Sea along the sea lanes of communicat ion as well as to well as to shadow shadow-

• trail

trail suspect suspect ships ships. . EEZ Oper at ion Ar ea

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Participated Naval Assets

BLACK SEA HARMONY – A New Securit y I nit iat ive

v v

Turk Turki ish sh N Navy shar es t h avy shar es t hi is s i inf or mat nf or mat i ion w

• n wi

it h t h NATO NATO wh whi ile complement le complement i ing t he ef f or t s ng t he ef f or t s of

• f O

Oper at per at i ion

• n ACTI VE

ACTI VE ENDEAVOUR ENDEAVOUR

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I nvit at ion To Blacksea Lit t orals

Mult ilat er alizat ion of OBSH

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Black Sea - Conclusion

The player s are incr easing. Wisdom and pat ience...

Mont reux Convent ion provides a regime which is vit al and key.

A complex secur it y envir onment

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Black Sea - Conclusion

The will and int ent ion of all lit t or als Opt imist ic f or t he f ut ur e!

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Black Sea - Conclusion

Geogr aphy For eign Policy Hist or y

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Blacksea - Conclusion

Balanced Foreign P

• licy
• an area of cooperation

Cold War period was not. . .

• an arena of power struggle

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Consent of all littorals Cooperation

Blacksea - Conclusion Securit y of The Blacksea Marit ime Domain