Threat and Risk Perceptions over the Black Sea – A Turkish Perspective Rear Admiral Cem G Ü RDEN İ Z (LH) Chief , Plans and Policy, Turkish Navy
Overview – The Black Sea 2 - 4340 Km 432 000 Km 1400 Km. 3
Blacksea – Unique Feat ures Only sea wit h est ablished EEZ and def ined mar it ime border s 4
Blacksea – Unique Feat ures 25 int ernat ional agreement in t he last 15 years 5
Black Sea – Mar it ime St abilit y Bilat er al and mult ilat er al init iat ives * Est ablished Dialogue * Enhanced under st anding & cooper at ion Mut ual conf idence Mont r eux Convent ion - 1936 6
Black Sea – Mult ilat eral I nit iat ives BLACK SEA BLACK SEA NAVAL ECONOMI C COOPERATI ON TASK COOPERATI ON GROUP ORGANI SATI ON + Polit ical will cooperat ion 7
Black Sea – Mar it ime Domain Mar it ime J urisdict ion TTW TTW TTW E E Z T T TTW W TTW 8
Black Sea – Securit y Maj or t err or ist incident - 1996 9
Black Sea – Saf et y Maj or cat ast rophy - 1979 10
Black Sea – Securit y Securit y Challanges Sof t challenges Hard issues Hard security issues might have implicat ions over t he sof t security challenges such as int er nat ional t err or and cont r aband t r af f icking. 11
Black Sea – Securit y % 7 1 9339 - 0 1 10000 6093 7500 4248 5000 2500 25 t ankers/ day 1996 2000 2004 Secur it y of t he mar it ime domain is most af f ect ed by t he incr ease in t he shipping volumes 12
Black Sea – Energy vs. Securit y Baku- Tbilisi- Ceyhan(BTC) Pipeline Kazakstan Russian Federation Black Sea Georgia Istanbul Samsun Baku Turkmenistan Ankara Azerbaijan Caspian Sea Turkey Izmir Adana Ceyhan Mediterranean Sea Iran A decrease in t he mar it ime t r af f ic is expect ed af t er Sept ember 2005. 13
Black Sea – Vulnerabilit ies Vulner able t o asymmet r ic r isks Vulner able t o accident s 14
Black Sea – Adopt ed Measures • Tr af f ic Regulat ions - VTMI S • I SPS Code • Sailing Plan Repor t ing Syst em • Oper at ion Black Sea Harmony 15
Black Sea – Adopt ed Measures I solat ed cases of illegal act ivit ies 12000 hailings in t he Black Sea 195 in-por t visit by t he CG 16
Black Sea – Specif ic I ncident s Fuel Smuggling False Declar at ions... ... are maj or violat ions of r egulat ions f or t he Turkish St r ait s 17
Black Sea – I nf ormat ion Exchange Black Sea Bor der Coor dinat ion and I nf ormat ion Cent er - BBCI C I nf ormat ion has been exchanged over 400 t imes. I solat ed cases, not syst emat ic pat t erns... 18
Black Sea – Mar it ime Risk Assessment 3 RD BLACKSEA HIGH LEVEL REPRESENTATIVES MEETING 3 RD BLACKSEA HIGH LEVEL REPRESENTATIVES MEETING 31 MARCH 2005 / KIEV 31 MARCH 2005 / KIEV Appr oved and adopt ed t he document of “Maritime Risk Assessment in the Black Sea” indicat ing exist ing r isks. 19
Black Sea – Fact s • Risks of asymmet r ic t hreat and illegal act ions exist , if not det err ed. • No syst emat ic illegal act ivit y r elat ed t o f r ozen conf lict s. 20
Black Sea – Risk Management • D eny pot ent ial t error ist s t o ut ilize Black Sea mar it ime domain • D isrupt illegal act ivit ies in t he BS mar it ime domain • D evelop inf or mat ion exchange mechanism 21
Black Sea – Risk Management we do? What is t o be done? BLACKSEAFOR Transf ormation 22
Black Sea – What We Have Done? Transforming BLACKSEAFOR BLACKSEAFOR Transforming HLRM - HLRM -2 2 HLRM -2 7 Jul 04 7 Jul 04 7 Jul 04 HLRM- HLRM -3 3 HLRM-3 31 Mar 05 31 Mar 05 31 Mar 05 HLRM HLRM- -1 1 HLRM-1 18 Jan Jan 04 04 18 18 Jan 04 23
Black Sea – What We Have Done? High level level representatives representatives decided decided to... to... High 1. Est ablish a permanent oper at ion cont r ol cent er 2. Conduct unscheduled act ivat ions 3. Task BSNC t o dr af t a MOU f or inf ormat ion exchange 4. Task BSNC t o dr af t a TOR f or Oper at ion Cont r ol Cent er 24
Black Sea – What We Have Done? Transforming BLACKSEAFOR BLACKSEAFOR Transforming BSNC- BSNC -05 05 BSNC-05 HLRM - -2 2 HLRM HLRM -2 18 May May 0 05 5 18 18 May 05 7 Jul 04 7 Jul 04 7 Jul 04 HLRM- HLRM -3 3 HLRM-3 31 Mar 05 31 Mar 05 31 Mar 05 PGM PGM- -4/5 4/5 BSNC- -04 04 BSNC BSNC-04 May- May -Jun Jun May May 04 04 May 04 05 5 0 HLEM- HLEM -2/3 2/3 HLEM-2/3 2- -4 4 Feb Feb 05 05 2 HLRM- HLRM -1 1 2-4 Feb 05 HLRM-1 PGM- -1/2/ 1/2/3 3 PGM PGM-1/2/3 1- -2 2 Jun Jun 05 05 18 Jan Jan 04 04 1 18 1-2 Jun 05 18 Jan 04 Jul- Jul -Nov Nov 04 04- -Feb 05 Feb 05 Jul-Nov 04-Feb 05 HLEM (High Level Experts Meeting) HLEM (High Level Experts Meeting) HLEM- -1 1 HLEM HLEM-1 HLRM (High Level Representatives Meeting) HLRM (High Level Representatives Meeting) 29- 29 -30 30 Nov Nov 04 04 29-30 Nov 04 PGM (Planning Group Meeting) PGM (Planning Group Meeting) 25
Black Sea – What We Have Done? CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY BUILDING MEASURES IN THE NAVAL FIELD CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY BUILDING MEASURES IN THE NAVAL FIELD CSBM CSBM CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY BUILDING MEASURES BUILDING MEASURES BLACKSEA GALATHEA PARTNERSHIP-2005 2004 Provided perf ect plat f orm f or cooperat ion against Provided perf ect plat f orm f or cooperat ion against organized crime, smuggling of drugs, arms and organized crime, smuggling of drugs, arms and radioact ive mat erials, t errorist act ions and illegal radioact ive mat erials, t errorist act ions and illegal immigrat ion. immigrat ion. 26
Black Sea – What We Have Done? 4 TH ACTIVATION 1 ST SEA PERIOD 4 TH ACTIVATION 1 ST SEA PERIOD (05- -27 AUGUST 2004) 27 AUGUST 2004) (05 SEVASTOPOL NOVOROSS İ YSK rapprochement BATUM 27
BLACK SEA HARMONY – A New Securit y I nit iat ive 1 Mar ch 2004 EEZ Oper at ion Ar ea v To assist est ablishment of recognized marit ime picture v To assist est ablishment of recognized marit ime picture in the Black Sea along the sea lanes of communicat ion as in the Black Sea along the sea lanes of communicat ion as well as to shadow shadow- - trail trail suspect suspect ships ships. . well as to 28
BLACK SEA HARMONY – A New Securit y I nit iat ive Participated Naval Assets Turki ish sh N Navy shar es t h avy shar es t hi is s i inf or mat nf or mat i ion w on wi it h t h NATO NATO Turk v v whi wh ile complement le complement i ing t he ef f or t s ng t he ef f or t s of of O Oper at per at i ion on ACTI VE ACTI VE ENDEAVOUR ENDEAVOUR 29
I nvit at ion To Blacksea Lit t orals Mult ilat er alizat ion of OBSH 30
Black Sea - Conclusion A complex secur it y envir onment The player s are incr easing. Wisdom and pat ience... Mont reux Convent ion provides a regime which is vit al and key. 31
Black Sea - Conclusion The will and int ent ion of all lit t or als Opt imist ic f or t he f ut ur e! 32
Black Sea - Conclusion Geogr aphy + Hist or y For eign Policy 33
Blacksea - Conclusion Cold War period was not. . . • an area of cooperation • an arena of power struggle Balanced Foreign P olicy BA Þ LI Ð I G ENELK U R M A Y K A N 34
Blacksea - Conclusion Securit y of The Blacksea Marit ime Domain Consent of all Cooperation littorals 35
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