Thomas Elmqvist Department of Systems Ecology Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University SWEDEN 2008/12/17 1
Stockholm Resilience Centre - advance the understanding of complex social-ecological systems • through internationally recognized inter- and transdisciplinary research that integrates social science, the humanities and natural sciences • by fostering an international arena for science, practice and policy dialogues, • through capacity building by providing academic programmes and inputs to academic curricula and training, • and through strategic communication for improved policy and decision support, with the aim of securing ecosystem services for human wellbeing and building resilience for long-term sustainability. Carl Folke, Science Director 2008-12-17
Building “resilience thinking” into policy and practice will be a major task for all of the world’s citizens throughout the new century. UN Secretary General, September 24, 2007
Capacity to buffer disturbances Capacity to renewal and re- organization Capacity to learning and adaptation www.resalliance.org
Urban population: 2007 – 3.2 billion 2030 – 5 billion - 2/3 will live in urban slums
City-Regional Global Local (e.g. Sanitation) (e.g. Ambient Air) (e.g. Carbon Emissions) Increasing Severity Increasing Wealth Poor Settlements Wealthy Settlements Shifting Environmental Burdens Local Global Immediate Delayed Threaten Health Directly Threaten Life Support Systems 2008/12/17 7
Urban landscapes everywhere are changing faster than we can understand the diverse forces that are conditioning these changes A sustainable future in urban landscapes demand a deeper understanding of environmental change and innovations for sustaining ecosystem services crucial for human well-being Creating a host of new challenges and opportunities for political decision makers and social actors at all levels. A need to integrate and use all sources of knowledge for innovation and coping with change
Resilience theory: 1.Thresholds 2.Social-ecological interactions 3.Cross-scale interactions
Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle Migrations of European First migration of Aborigines Beginning fully modern humans civilisations: fully modern humans arrive in of agriculture from South Asia Greek, Roman out of Africa Australia to Europe Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Africa”, 2004
Nature is not fragile... Nature is not fragile... but the ecosystem services on which humans but the ecosystem services on which humans depend often are depend often are (Levin 1999) (Levin 1999)
Global change L Climate change a n d u s e c h a n g e Biodiversity change
Scenario Scenario Adaptive Adaptive High planning planning management management Uncertainty Uncertainty Optimal Optimal Low Hedging Hedging control control Low High Controllability Controllability Modified after Peterson et al. 2003
12 Aug. 2005 2008/12/17 17
Photo credit: Associated Press
SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE ecological ecological social social Equity and access rights Equity and access rights Div Diver ersity sity Migration Migration Redundancy Redundancy Institu Institutio ions ns Landscape configuration Landscape c nfiguration Jurisdictional scales Jurisdictional scales Distu Disturbances bances Social trust Social t Cross-scale interactions Cross-scale interactions Diversity of professions Diversity of professions Ra Rates of enterprise crea tes of enterprise creation tion
North America
Central and northern Belgium composed of highly urbanized areas and Natura 2000 areas only. Source: European Environment Agency.
� Today 25% of the world’s protected areas are within 17 km of an urban area - in 10 years 15 km � Urban sprawl is rapidly transforming and endangering critical habitats of global value e.g. in the Atlantic Forest Region of Brazil, the Cape of South Africa and coastal Central America � Urbanization is also viewed as a driving force for increased homogenization of fauna and flora But........ � Cities may also be very rich in biodiversity and a remarkable amount of native species diversity is known to exist in and around large cities, such as Singapore, Canberra, Rio de Janeiro, Chicago, Berlin, New Delhi and Stockholm
95 % of native species occur in Metropolitan Chicago Source : www.chicagowilderness.org/ 2008/12/17
Hope et al. 2003 2008/12/17 25
• Urban areas are heterogenous • Ecological processes may occur on different scales than in non-urban systems • Natural disturbance regimes are lacking or changed • Average air temperature 0,5-3 degrees higher in cities 2008/12/17 26
How do human activities, behaviors, and values change biodiversity and its components—population abundance, species distribution and richness, and community and trophic structure? How do we design ecosystems to sustainably generate ecosystem services?
Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems
� Air filtration � Noise reduction � Recreation and aestethical values � Microclimate regulation � Water regulation and filtration � Nutrient circulation � Sewage treatment � Pollination and seed dispersal � Pest control (modified from Bolund and Hunhammar 1999) 2008/12/17 29
Ecosystem services in urban landscapes •40% of CO 2 emmissions from traffic is assimilated by the green areas in Stockholm County – some exotic tree species may have very high assimilation Food Spiritual, Water capacity aestethic • Parks may reduce air pollution with up to Fibre Recreation 85% • Doubling of the no. of street trees results Climate regulation Pollination in a 25% reduction of asthma among children Nutrient cycling Very small areas (even individual trees) may generate high values
Cross-scale interactions
Biophysical social economic drivers Governance Metabolism Global Urban services Urban institutions Ecological and material and Practice Knowledge infrastructucture Management
URBAN SOCIAL - ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND GLOBALIZATION STOCKHOLM RESILIENCE CENTRE STOCKHOLM RESILIENCE CENTRE
Stockholm Stockholm Helsin Helsinki ki Urban planning New Orl w Orleans, New York City ans, New York City Urban Biosphere Initiatives Ist Istanbul nbul Urban Biosphere Initiative Delhi De lhi, B Bangal ngalore Ecosystem services Phoenix Phoenix Urban LTER Urban Biosphere Initiative Canberra Canberra Urban Biosphere Initiative Cape Town Cape Town Urban Biosphere Initiative
Cape Town Focus on how the living conditions of the urban poor and increasing consumption rates of the urban rich influence Climate change models predict biodiversity and urban dramatic rainfall pattern change: ecosystem services, the access less overall water, heavier rainfall to these services and events, and increased mean transformation capacity. temperature.
Policy: Policy: URBIS – URBIS – The Urban Biosphere Network he Urban Biosphere Network An open network of cities and urban regions with interest in • the Biosphere concept and its application in urban landscapes. • A partnership between SRC and UNESCO -bridging the divide between science, policy and practice, building on local knowledge and interdisciplinary science. Action and links: World Network of Biosphere Reserves, CBD: COP9 - COP10, ICLEI, LAB, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment follow-up, IPBES
Metabolic Governance Flows Networks Production, supply, Institutional structures consumption and waste and organisations disposal chains Urban Resilience Social Built Dynamics Environment Demographics, Ecosystem services human capital in urban landscapes and inequity
The Urban Future?
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