Thomas Elmqvist Department of Systems Ecology Stockholm Resilience - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Thomas Elmqvist Department of Systems Ecology Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University SWEDEN

2008/12/17 1

2008-12-17 Carl Folke, Science Director

Stockholm Resilience Centre

• advance the understanding of complex social-ecological systems
• through internationally recognized inter-

and transdisciplinary research that integrates social science, the humanities and natural sciences

• by fostering an international arena for science, practice and policy dialogues,
• through capacity building by providing academic programmes

and inputs to academic curricula and training,

• and through strategic communication for improved policy and decision support,

with the aim of securing ecosystem services for human wellbeing and building resilience for long-term sustainability.

Building “resilience thinking” into policy and practice will be a major task for all of the world’s citizens throughout the new century.

UN Secretary General, September 24, 2007

Capacity to buffer disturbances Capacity to renewal and re-

• rganization

Capacity to learning and adaptation

www.resalliance.org

Urban population: 2007 – 3.2 billion 2030 – 5 billion - 2/3 will live in urban slums

2008/12/17 7

Global (e.g. Carbon Emissions) Local (e.g. Sanitation) Increasing Wealth Increasing Severity

Poor Settlements Wealthy Settlements Local Immediate Threaten Health Directly Global Delayed Threaten Life Support Systems Shifting Environmental Burdens

City-Regional (e.g. Ambient Air)

Urban landscapes everywhere are changing faster than we can understand the diverse forces that are conditioning these changes A sustainable future in urban landscapes demand a deeper understanding of environmental change and innovations for sustaining ecosystem services crucial for human well-being Creating a host of new challenges and opportunities for political decision makers and social actors at all levels. A need to integrate and use all sources of knowledge for innovation and coping with change

Resilience theory:

1.Thresholds 2.Social-ecological interactions 3.Cross-scale interactions

Aborigines arrive in Australia Beginning

• f agriculture

European civilisations: Greek, Roman

Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Africa”, 2004 First migration of fully modern humans

• ut of Africa

Migrations of fully modern humans from South Asia to Europe

Nature is not fragile... Nature is not fragile...

but the ecosystem services on which humans but the ecosystem services on which humans depend often are depend often are

(Levin 1999) (Levin 1999)

L a n d u s e c h a n g e Climate change Biodiversity change

Global change

Controllability Controllability Uncertainty Uncertainty

Low High Low High Scenario Scenario planning planning Adaptive Adaptive management management Optimal Optimal control control Hedging Hedging

Modified after Peterson et al. 2003

2008/12/17 17

12 Aug. 2005

Photo credit: Associated Press

ecological ecological social social

Div Diver ersity sity Redundancy Redundancy Landscape c Landscape configuration nfiguration Distu Disturbances bances Cross-scale interactions Cross-scale interactions Equity and access rights Equity and access rights Migration Migration Institu Institutio ions ns Jurisdictional scales Jurisdictional scales Social t Social trust Diversity of professions Diversity of professions Ra Rates of enterprise crea tes of enterprise creation tion

SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE

North America

Central and northern Belgium composed of highly urbanized areas and Natura 2000 areas only. Source: European Environment Agency.

Today 25% of the world’s protected areas are within 17 km of an urban area - in 10 years 15 km

Urban sprawl is rapidly transforming and endangering critical habitats of

global value e.g. in the Atlantic Forest Region of Brazil, the Cape of South Africa and coastal Central America

Urbanization is also viewed as a driving force for increased homogenization

• f fauna and flora

But........

Cities may also be very rich in biodiversity and a remarkable amount of

native species diversity is known to exist in and around large cities, such as Singapore, Canberra, Rio de Janeiro, Chicago, Berlin, New Delhi and Stockholm

95 % of native species occur in Metropolitan Chicago

2008/12/17

Source : www.chicagowilderness.org/

2008/12/17 25

Hope et al. 2003

• Urban areas are

heterogenous

• Ecological processes

may occur on different scales than in non-urban systems

• Natural disturbance

regimes are lacking or changed

• Average air

temperature 0,5-3 degrees higher in cities

2008/12/17 26

How do human activities, behaviors, and values change biodiversity and its components—population abundance, species distribution and richness, and community and trophic structure? How do we design ecosystems to sustainably generate ecosystem services?

Ecosystem Services

The benefits people obtain from ecosystems

2008/12/17 29

Air filtration Noise reduction Recreation and aestethical values Microclimate regulation Water regulation and filtration Nutrient circulation Sewage treatment Pollination and seed dispersal Pest control

(modified from Bolund and Hunhammar 1999)

• 40% of CO2

emmissions from traffic is assimilated by the green areas in Stockholm County – some exotic tree species may have very high assimilation capacity

• Parks may reduce air pollution with up to

85%

• Doubling of the no. of street trees results

in a 25% reduction of asthma among children Very small areas (even individual trees) may generate high values

Ecosystem services in urban landscapes

Food Water Fibre Recreation Spiritual, aestethic Climate regulation Pollination Nutrient cycling

Cross-scale interactions

Urban services

Ecological and material infrastructucture

Urban institutions and Practice Biophysical social economic drivers Global Metabolism Governance

Knowledge Management

STOCKHOLM RESILIENCE CENTRE STOCKHOLM RESILIENCE CENTRE URBAN SOCIAL - ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND GLOBALIZATION

Stockholm Stockholm

Helsin Helsinki ki Urban planning New Orl w Orleans, New York City ans, New York City Urban Biosphere Initiatives Phoenix Phoenix Urban LTER Urban Biosphere Initiative Cape Town Cape Town Urban Biosphere Initiative Ist Istanbul nbul Urban Biosphere Initiative De Delhi lhi, B Bangal ngalore Ecosystem services Canberra Canberra Urban Biosphere Initiative

Climate change models predict dramatic rainfall pattern change: less overall water, heavier rainfall events, and increased mean temperature.

Cape Town

Focus on how the living conditions of the urban poor and increasing consumption rates of the urban rich influence biodiversity and urban ecosystem services, the access to these services and transformation capacity.

• An open network of cities and urban regions with interest in

the Biosphere concept and its application in urban landscapes.

• A partnership between SRC and UNESCO -bridging the

divide between science, policy and practice, building on local knowledge and interdisciplinary science. Action and links: World Network of Biosphere Reserves, CBD: COP9 - COP10, ICLEI, LAB, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment follow-up, IPBES

Policy: Policy: URBIS – URBIS – The Urban Biosphere Network he Urban Biosphere Network

Metabolic Flows

Production, supply, consumption and waste disposal chains

Governance Networks

Institutional structures and organisations

Social Dynamics

Demographics, human capital and inequity

Built Environment

Ecosystem services in urban landscapes

Urban Resilience

The Urban Future?