This document contains the presentation given These are the countries covered by the by the CELIMO Secretary at the annual survey. Council Meeting. It also includes notes (and where they were used, slides) from the Where no return is provided, the data comes individual delegates, so it forms part of the from a variety of sources including: minutes of this meeting. · CECIMO and other national associations · Gardner Research World Machine Tool Survey · Private databases of official statistics 1 2
The chart shows the total value of imports of machine These are the six largest machine tool importing tools, measured in Euro. countries in CELIMO in 2015, although it is worth noting that the figure for Belgium is heavily affected Machine Tool Imports into the CELIMO countries by warehousing operations (and there also appears (including those from other CELIMO countries) grew by to be a discontinuity in the data between 2011 and +0.6% in 2016 to a total of €9.8 billion, the highest level 2012). since 2007. Germany remains, by far, the largest machine tool Machine tool imports fell in six of the CELIMO countries importer in Europe and, ignoring Belgium, Italy is and increased in five. The largest increase in machine the only other country where machine tool imports tool imports in percentage terms was in Spain +16%), are worth more than €1 billion, but the total is still with the most rapid fall in Finland (-24%). less than half of that in Germany. China and the U SA saw machine tools imports fall in The order of these countries was unchanged 2016 and there was also a small reduction for the between 2015 and 2016 other Asian countries combined (JP+KR+TW+IN). 3 4
This charts the trends for imports of machine tools The share of the European machine tool market into the other 6 CELIMO countries. They are which is accounted for by imports fell slightly in 2016, but remains around two-thirds. ranked in order of the 2016 level of imports and we have seen Spain move up two places in this chart. After adjusting for those countries where this measure is distorted (Belgium, Netherlands and Sweden), the Switzerland is the only country on this chart where ratio fell to 55% in 2016. the data is affected by changes in the exchange rate, although the major change in 2015 was not Italy (39.2%) and Germany (41.3%) have the lowest reflected in trade levels until 2016 (this makes import ratios among the individual CELIMO countries sense given the long backlogs in the machine tool and are the only ones below 50%. industry). For Belgium and, to a lesser extent, Netherlands, the effect of warehousing and port operations gives a It is worth noting that the Dutch figure is also market share of >100%; it is not clear why the import affected by warehousing and port operations, ratio in Sweden is above 100%, although the import although not to the same extent as for Belgium. data comes from a different source to that used for production & exports. 5 6
We have data for the source of imports into the CELIMO This is calculated using Production - Exports + Imports; any countries, although not the value of imports from the smaller issues with any of these series can affect the result. Other Asia European countries which were not included in the analysis, in this case is defined as South Korea + Taiwan + India. except where some respondents have given the data for one Machine Tool Consumption in the CELIMO area grew by +2.0% or two extra countries. Another complication is the re- exports from Belgium; some of these originated in Europe, in 2016 to €14.9 billion, the best since 2008, but still a long way while others came from outside the region. off that figure (which was €16.7 billion). Including all imports from Belgium, 62.6% of total imports The machine tool market grew in 6 of the CELIMO countries into the CELIMO countries came from elsewhere in Europe; and fell in 6; the largest increase was in Italy in both excluding all imports from Belgium reduces the percentage percentage and value terms, while the largest decline in to 60.4%. However, allowing for “genuine” exports from percentage terms was in Finland and by value in Switzerland. Belgium of machines originating in other European countries, we can be fairly certain that the final percentage is likely to Outside of Europe, South Korea and Taiwan saw a fall in be around 62%. machine tool demand and the fastest growth was in India (at +13.1%), but in value it was the USA (+€504 million). Germany remains the most important source of imports into the CELIMO countries, with Switzerland the most important The report contains similar charts for production and exports. source of machine tool imports into Germany. 7 8
As an aside, a reminder that although the The average rate of growth for the CELIMO area percentage change in Chinese growth is slowing - is slightly misleading because the CELIMO and, therefore, attracting the headlines - the average is not weighted to take account of the actual value increase is at a record high level. different sized economies. However, for the region as a whole, the pace of growth slowed very slightly in 2016. We would expect to see a similar phenomenon affect India in the not too distant future. Sweden (+3.3%) was just ahead of Spain (+3.2%) as the fastest growing European economy in 2016, followed by Turkey at +2.9%. India remains ahead of China as the fastest growing economy across our study, but slower growth in China is inevitable. 9 10
This chart shows the annual average exchange rates for This chart shows the growth rates for total output of 4 key global economies against the euro. the manufacturing sector in 10 of the larger economies. The chart highlights different The Euro weakened significantly against the Japanese experiences for the European countries over the ¥en and strengthened vis-à-vis the GB£ (although the past 3 years. latter has more to do with weakening of Sterling following the Referendum vote to leave the European Union). The European picture is very mixed, with growth picking up in countries such as Italy and Spain The dramatic changes in the value of the Swiss Franc which took place in January 2015 when the Swiss which have been relatively late in recovering from Central Bank reversed its policy of support for the the recession, but slower growth being recorded in currency has been followed by a period of relative Germany, the UK and, in 2016, in Turkey. stability. Of course, changes in the exchange rates also have a significant impact on machine tool importers in Europe, making imports more or less expensive. 11 12
In Europe, only Austria has a ratio that is close to From the returns received, 9 CELIMO countries were able to identify the major customer sectors in their country. the Chinese, Taiwanese and Korean economies which are all above 30%. Germany leads Japan, The automotive sector still dominates the list of end-user with Hungary the only other countries where the sectors, although it is not present in every country. ratio is above 20%. Aerospace is important for France, Spain and the UK, Sub- contractors are mentioned in Finland and Sweden (and in the UK where they are classified as part of the Metal Products Six European countries have a ratio below 15%, industry) and the Mould Making sector is important for Spain, with the UK lowest of all at 9.1%; outside of Switzerland and Turkey. Europe, only the USA is below 15%. Looking at the output trends, the Automotive sector continues to grow where the data is reported. The other user-industries have contracted for two years in a row in Italy, but grew in Turkey; there is a mixed picture for the UK where Aerospace reached record high levels of output, but the Machinery industry saw another fall in output in 2016 as it faces the headwinds of low oil prices and weak global demand for equipment such as construction and mining machinery 13 14
This analysis is based on a breakdown from 8 We have already looked at the annual GDP data for countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Italy, Spain, the CELIMO area as a whole, but this chart shows Sweden, Turkey and the UK). It may not be how growth has been broadly flat, but at a completely reliable but is a useful guide to the reasonable level. structure of the member associations. After a burst of activity at the start of 2015, European It provides a useful analysis for our relationships GDP overall has settled down to a rate of just under with other organisations, most notably perhaps, +0.5% per quarter. CECIMO. More than ¼ of our members are subsidiaries of machine tool manufacturers, a good proportion of which are likely to be members of the CECIMO associations (CECIMO only covers machine tools). Overall, 42% of the CELIMO members are independent companies. 15 16
Recommend
More recommend
