Third Quarter 2010 Earnings Presentation October 29, 2010 Safe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Third Quarter 2010 Earnings Presentation October 29, 2010 Safe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Third Quarter 2010 Earnings Presentation October 29, 2010 Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources', PNM's, or TNMP's


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SLIDE 1

Third Quarter 2010 Earnings Presentation

October 29, 2010

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SLIDE 2

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

2

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995

Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, ongoing EBITDA, and cash earnings), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company's website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources', PNM's, or TNMP's (collectively, the "Companies") expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets and strategies, are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward- looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and the Companies assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, the Companies caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. The Companies' business, financial condition, cash flow and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These factors include conditions affecting the Companies’ ability to access the financial markets and negotiate new credit facilities for those expiring in 2011 and 2012, or Optim Energy’s access to additional debt financing following the utilization of its existing credit facility, including actions by ratings agencies affecting the Companies’ credit ratings; the recession, its consequent extreme disruption in the credit markets, and its impacts on the electricity usage of the Companies’ customers; state and federal regulatory and legislative decisions and actions, including appeals of prior regulatory proceedings, and including provisions relating to climate change, reduction of green house gases, coal combustion byproducts, and other power plant emissions; the ability

  • f PNM to meet the renewable energy requirements established by the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (“NMPRC”), including the resource diversity

requirement, within the specified cost parameters; the ability of PNM to successfully utilize a future test year in its rate filing with the NMPRC, including PNM’s ability to accurately forecast operating and capital expenditures and withstand challenges by regulators and intervenors; the performance of generating units, including the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, the San Juan Generating Station, the Four Corners Plant, and Optim Energy generating units, and transmission systems; the risk that recently enacted reliability standards regarding total transmission capacity may limit PNM’s ability to transmit its generation resources and provide access to transmission customers; the risk that Optim Energy desires to expand its generation capacity but is unable to identify and implement profitable acquisitions or that PNM Resources and ECJV Holdings, LLC will not agree to make additional capital contributions to Optim Energy; the potential unavailability of cash from PNM Resources’ subsidiaries or Optim Energy due to regulatory, statutory or contractual restrictions; the impacts of the decline in the values of marketable equity securities on the trust funds maintained to provide nuclear decommissioning funding and pension and other postretirement benefits, including the levels of funding and expense; the ability of First Choice Power to attract and retain customers and collect amounts billed, changes in Electric Reliability Council of Texas protocols; changes in the cost of power acquired by First Choice Power; collections experience; insurance coverage available for claims made in litigation; fluctuations in interest rates; weather; water supply; changes in fuel costs; availability of fuel supplies; uncertainty regarding the requirements and related costs of decommissioning power plants owned or partially owned by PNM and Optim Energy and coal mines supplying certain PNM power plants, as well as the ability to recover decommissioning costs through charges to customers; the risk that replacement power costs incurred by PNM related to not meeting the specified capacity factor for its generating units under its emergency fuel and purchased power adjustment clause will not be approved by the NMPRC; the risk that PNM may not be able to recover costs of renewal of rights-of-way on Native American lands through rates charged to customers; the effectiveness of risk management and commodity risk transactions; seasonality and other changes in supply and demand in the market for electric power; the impact of mandatory energy efficiency measures on customer energy usage; variability of wholesale power prices and natural gas prices; volatility and liquidity in the wholesale power markets and the natural gas markets; uncertainty regarding the ongoing validity of government programs for emission allowances; changes in the competitive environment in the electric industry; the risk that the Companies and Optim Energy may have to commit to substantial capital investments and additional

  • perating costs to comply with new environmental requirements including possible future requirements to address concerns about global climate change, and the resultant

impacts on the operations and economic viability of generating plants in which PNM and Optim Energy have interests; the risks associated with completion of generation, transmission, distribution, and other projects, including construction delays and unanticipated cost overruns; uncertainty surrounding the status of PNM’s participation in jointly-owned projects resulting from the scheduled expiration of the operational documents for the projects beginning in 2015 and potential changes in the objectives of the participants in the projects; the outcome of legal proceedings; changes in applicable accounting principles; and the performance of state, regional, and national economies.

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SLIDE 3

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

3

Opening Remarks & Overview

Pat Vincent-Collawn

President and CEO

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SLIDE 4

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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Q3 2010 Highlights

Rate relief for PNM, TNMP and warmer weather improved results First Choice Power down quarter over quarter as expected; however, bad debt expense continues to improve Optim Energy sustaining strong plant performance with excellent summer availability 2010 consolidated ongoing EPS guidance increased

2010 2009 2010 2009 Ongoing EPS $0.63 $0.63 $0.90 $0.94 GAAP EPS $0.53 $0.59 $0.69 $1.55

Q3 YTD

(1) (1)

(1) Includes discontinued operations

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SLIDE 5

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

5

Regulatory Update

PNM

Current case procedural schedule reset:

Hearing scheduled for Jan. 31 - Feb. 18, 2011

Filed FERC transmission case Oct. 27, requesting:

$11.1 million increase 12.25% ROE

TNMP

Filed general rate case on Aug. 26 requesting:

$20.1 million increase 11.5% ROE

Filed advanced meter surcharge in May

February 2011 hearing

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SLIDE 6

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

6

Renewable Plan Update PRC unanimously approved modified Solar Plan on Aug. 31

Plan calls for: Five utility-scale sites totaling 22 MW

Recovery capped at expected costs of $101.7M

500-kW solar power, storage demo project Expanded customer solar incentive programs PNM to file for recovery via rider beginning in 2012 Expected 2012 EPS contribution: $0.03-$0.05

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SLIDE 7

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

7

Retail Load

TX

NM U.S.

Retail load is rebounding, however no definite trend has emerged

Regulated Retail Energy Sales Growth

(weather-normalized kWh)

TX NM U.S.

(1) (1) (2) (2)

PNM TNMP PNM TNMP Residential 2.6% 0.0% 1.8% 1.0% Commercial 1.8% 2.3% 1.9% 2.9% Industrial

  • 0.2%
  • 0.6%

0.7% 0.7% Total Retail 2.1% 0.7% 1.8% 1.7% Customer Growth 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% YTD 2010 vs YTD 2009 Q3 2010 vs Q3 2009

(1) Excluding Economy Service customers (2) Excluding Transmission Service customers

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SLIDE 8

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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Competitive Businesses

First Choice Power

Bad debt expense decreasing

  • Lower departures, reduced bills, increased deposit coverage, credit

scrutiny

Commercial business developing

  • Provides diversity, improved retention, earnings predictability

New local offices opening

Optim Energy

Strong power plant availability continuing Ancillary sales partially offsetting low-price market Focusing on cost control, liquidity management, cash flow

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SLIDE 9

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

9

Financial Overview

Chuck Eldred

Executive Vice President & CFO

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SLIDE 10

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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Q3 2010 Financial Summary (Ongoing)

Q3 2009 Q3 2010 $0.63 $0.63

$0.09 $0.03 ($0.03) ($0.03) ($0.08)

FCP Margins Optim Energy Other Rate Relief Weather

Ongoing EPS of $0.63; flat with last year YTD cash earnings of $285M

Regulated Load

$0.02

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SLIDE 11

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

11

Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2009 Q3 2010

Regulated Operations: Q3 2010 EPS (Ongoing)

PNM Electric TNMP

Q3 Key Performance Drivers EPS Rate relief $0.02 Other ($0.01) Weather $0.01

$0.08 $0.06

Q3 Key Performance Drivers Rate relief EPS $0.07 Weather and load $0.04 Pension and retiree medical costs ($0.01) Interest expense ($0.01) Property taxes ($0.01) Other ($0.01)

$0.42 $0.35

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SLIDE 12

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

12

Q3 2009 Q3 2010

First Choice Power

(In millions)

$20.8 $29.6

Optim Energy(1) (100%)

(In millions)

Q3 2009 Q3 2010 $25.4 $28.6

Q3 Key Performance Drivers EBITDA Lower bad debt expense $1.8 Lower margins ($10.6) Q3 Key Performance Drivers EBITDA Sale of ancillary services $3.1 Lower O&M $1.8 Market and fuel prices ($8.1)

Competitive Operations: Q3 2010 EBITDA (Ongoing)

(1) PNM Resources has 50% ownership interest in Optim Energy; gains

and losses of Optim Energy are equally shared by the owners.

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SLIDE 13

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

13

2010 Revised Guidance

(1) Business segment guidance ranges are not additive

Guidance 8/6/10 Guidance 10/29/10 Regulated Operations PNM $0.51 - $0.55 $0.51 - $0.55 TNMP $0.15 - $0.17 $0.15 - $0.17 Sub-total 0.66 - 0.72 0.66 - 0.72 Unregulated Operations First Choice Power 0.27 - 0.33 0.40 - 0.43 Optim Energy (PNMR Share - 50%) (0.10) - (0.07) (0.10) - (0.09) Sub-total 0.17 - 0.26 0.30 - 0.34 Corp/Other (primarily interest expense) (0.18) - (0.16) (0.18) - (0.16) Total EPS $0.65 - $0.75

(1)

$0.83 - $0.90

(1)

Unregulated Operations First Choice Power $40M - $50M $59M - $63M Optim Energy (100%) $60M - $65M $60M - $65M PNM Resources Consoidated $305M - $325M $380M - $395M Ongoing EBITDA Ongoing EPS Cash Earnings

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SLIDE 14

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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2010 Checklist

File rate cases

PNM: Future-test-period by June 30

Filed June 1

TNMP: TCOS in Q2

Approved and implemented in May

TNMP: General rate case in Q3

Filed August 26

FERC: PNM transmission rates in Q4

Filed Oct.27

Achieve favorable regulatory outcome in PNM Renewable Resource Plan case

22MW of utility-scale solar build approved by NMPRC with $101.7M recovery cap

Maintain strong electric reliability and power plant availability

Reliability on track to be within 1st quartile; plant performance on target

Achieve profitable customer growth from First Choice Power

Ongoing EBITDA estimate increased; growth in commercial segment continuing

Achieve Optim Energy ongoing EBITDA growth of 5% to 10%

Lower natural gas prices have negatively impacted EBITDA, not expected to grow

Continue to improve credit metrics

Moody’s revised outlook from “Negative” to “Stable” (S&P revised outlook in December 2009)

  • x
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SLIDE 15

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

15

Questions & Answers

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SLIDE 16

Appendix

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SLIDE 17

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-2

PNM Plant EAF and Planned Outage Schedule

* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council 84.2% 98.3% 98.1% 91.8% 77.9% 86.8%

San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde

Q3 2009 Q3 2010 2010 & 2011 Outage Schedule

Unit Duration (days) Time Period 1 49 Q1 2011 2 11 Q2 2011 4 11 Q4 2011 5 21 Q2 2011 4 13 Q4 2011 3 66 Q4 2010 2 37 Q2 2011 1 37 Q4 2011 Four Corners Palo Verde San Juan

Annual Top Quartile Numbers* Coal 90% Nuclear 92%

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SLIDE 18

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-3

Optim Energy Plant Performance

98.5% 99.0% 94.3% 95.5% 99.7% 99.6%

Twin Oaks Altura Cogen Cedar Bayou 4

Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Annual Top Quartile Numbers* Lignite 90% Combined Cycle 92%

* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council

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SLIDE 19

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-4

Optim Energy EBITDA

Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30, 2010 September 30, 2010 GAAP Net Earnings 7.6 $ (6.8) $ Interest expense 4.7 14.0 Income tax 0.2 0.3 Depreciation and amortization expense 12.4 37.3 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedges 0.9 (2.2) Purchase accounting amortizations (0.4) 10.4 Ongoing Optim Energy EBITDA 25.4 53.0 50 percent of Ongoing EBITDA (PNMR share) 12.7 $ 26.5 $ (In millions)

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October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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Optim Energy Amortizations

(1) Twin Oaks Contract Amortization (2) Altura Cogen Contract Amortization (3) Emission Allowance Amortization (1)+(2)+(3) * 50% PNMR's 50 percent share of Optim Energy Amortizations PNMR's Basis in Amortizations PNMR Net Earnings Impact 2009 $ 12.8 $ (19.5) $ (4.7) $ (5.7) $ (1.7) $ (7.4) 2010 2.7 (16.3) (7.2) (10.4) (2.7) (13.1) 2011

  • (14.7)

(4.7) (9.7) * (9.7) 2012

  • (9.4)

(3.6) (6.5) * (6.5) 2013

  • (8.8)

(3.6) (6.2) * (6.2) 2014

  • (8.3)

(3.3) (5.8) * (5.8) 2015 and beyond

  • (42.9)

(37.1) (40.0) * (40.0) Total 15.5 $ (119.9) $ (64.2) $ (84.3) $ (4.4) $ (88.7) $ (In millions)

Amortization for out of market contracts, emission allowances, and the impact on PNMR earnings is as follows:

In the table presented above, emission allowance amortization for 2010 - 2014 is forecasted based on estimated usage and sales. Since actual usage and sales will vary from this assumption, future year’s amortization expense may be different than presented. Note: Schedule is updated annually.

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SLIDE 21

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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Optim Energy 5-Year Capital Plan

$24 $22 $17 $8 $11 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

(In millions)

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SLIDE 22

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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PNMR 5-Year Capital Plan

(In millions)

$254 $257 $252 $238 $245 $96 $9

$2 $17 $13 $11 $16

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Core Renewables TNMP Advanced Metering System $265 $369 $269 $251 $256

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SLIDE 23

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-8

Components of Revised Cash Earnings

(1) Including bad debt expense and settlement of legal proceedings (2) Optim Energy cash earnings defined as net cash flows from operating activities less changes in certain current assets & liabilities

2010E

(In millions)

Net cash flows from operating activities $310 - $320 +/- adjustments in arriving at cash earnings Changes in certain current assets & liabilities (1) (5) - (10) Return of principal on Palo Verde lessor notes 30 Payments received from Palo Verde firm-sales contracts 30 PNMR share of Optim Energy cash earnings (2) 20 - 22 Total Cash Earnings $380 - $395 Drivers of $75M - $80M increase vs. 8/6/10 guidance are as follows: Taxes $55M - $65M FCP Earnings $5M - $10M Other $1M - $2M

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SLIDE 24

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-9

Liquidity

(1) Includes First Choice Power (2) The PNMR Facility and the PNM Facility were reduced by $26.0 million and $14.0 million in August 2010 and will be reduced an additional $25.0

million and $18.0 million in August 2011 according to their terms.

PNM Resources (1) PNM Separate TNMP Separate PNM Resources Consolidated (In millions) Financing Capacity: Revolving credit facility $ 542.0 $ 386.0 $ 75.0 $ 1,003.0 Local lines of credit (LOC) 5.0

  • 5.0

Total Capacity 547.0 386.0 75.0 1,008.0 Short-term debt & LOC balances 82.9 218.7 0.3 301.9 Remaining availability 464.1 167.3 74.7 706.1 Invested cash 3.3 12.3

  • 15.6

Available Liquidity as of 10/25/10 $ 467.4 $ 179.6 $ 74.7 $ 721.7 As of 10/25/10:

(2)

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SLIDE 25

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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Dec 31, Sep 30,

2009 2010

(In millions)

Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion)

PNM 1,055.7 $ 1,055.7 $ TNMP 309.7 310.2 PNMR 201.9 201.9 Consolidated 1,567.3 $ 1,567.8 $

Total Debt (incl. short-term)

PNM 1,173.7 $ 1,228.7 $ TNMP 309.7 310.2 PNMR 281.9 220.9 Consolidated 1,765.3 $ 1,759.8 $

Selected Balance Sheet Information

(1) Excludes intercompany borrowings (1)

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SLIDE 26

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-11

Credit Ratings

Senior Unsecured Debt

S&P PNM Resources BB- PNM BB+ Outlook: Stable Moody’s PNM Resources Ba2 PNM Baa3 Outlook: Stable

TNMP First Mortgage Bonds

S&P BBB- Outlook: Stable Moody's Baa1 Outlook: Stable

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SLIDE 27

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-12

NMPRC Commissioners and Districts

Name District Term Ends Party Jason Marks District 1 2012 Democrat David King (1) Chairman District 2 2010 Republican Jerome Block Vice Chair District 3 2012 Democrat Theresa Becenti-Aguilar (2) District 4 2010 Democrat Sandy Jones (3) District 5 2010 Democrat

NMPRC Districts and PNM Services Areas

(1) Two-term limit reached (2) Appointed to replace Carol Sloan and is seeking election to the Commission (3) Did not run for re-election to the NMPRC

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October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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NM Public Regulation Commission

Commissioner Candidates

District 2 – Southeast NM (held by David King) Stephanie DuBois (D) Patrick Lyons (R) District 4 – Northwest NM (held by Theresa Becenti-Aguilar) Theresa Becenti-Aguilar (D) Gary Montoya (R) District 5 – Southwest NM (held by Sandy Jones) Ben Hall (R) Bill McCamley (D)

Seated Commissioners

District 1 – Jason Marks (D), final term ends 2012 District 3 – Jerome Block, Jr. (D), current term ends 2012

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October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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Timeline of PNM Rate Cases

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2003 1994

PNM voluntarily gives up fuel clause to keep off- system sales revenues January 2003 “Global Settlement” reached: 5-year rate freeze, move toward deregulation in NM stops February 2007 Filing Requesting:

  • $76.9M rate increase
  • Institute fuel clause

Case: 07-00077-UT April 2008 NMPRC Decision: $33M rate increase Case: 07-00077-UT May 2008 NMPRC Decision: Emergency fuel clause granted Case: 08-00092-UT September 2008 Filing Requesting:

  • $123.3M rate increase
  • Traditional fuel clause

Case: 08-00273-UT March 2009 Settlement Filing:

  • $77M rate increase
  • Traditional fuel clause

Case: 08-00273-UT May 2009 NMPRC Decision:

  • $77M rate increase
  • Traditional fuel clause

Case: 08-00273-UT June 2010 Filing Requesting $165.2M rate increase Future Test Year Filing Case: 10-00086-UT

  • Aug. 5, 2010

Supplemental filing made Future Test Year Filing Case: 10-00086-UT March 6, 2008 Recommended Decision:

  • $24.2M rate increase
  • Fuel clause denied

Case: 07-00077-UT March 20, 2008 Filing Requesting: Emergency Fuel Clause Case: 08-00092-UT

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October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-15

Utility Rate Base and Return

PNM Retail Current Rates Proposed Rates

  • Dec. 31, 2011

$1.9B 50% 11.75% $923.8M $165.2M PNM FERC Transmission Current Rates

  • Dec. 31, 2005

$98.1M(2) 51.8% N/A N/A Proposed Rates

  • Dec. 31, 2011

$171.0M 49.4% 12.25% $99.5M $11.1M TNMP Current Retail Rates March 31, 2008 $399.0M 40% N/A N/A Proposed Retail Rates March 31, 2010 $448.3M 50% 11.5% $204.3M $20.1M Allowed Equity Ratio Rate Base ROE 10.8% Implied 10.25% Allowed Proposed Increase 10.5% Implied March 31, 2008 $1.5B 50% N/A N/A Test Period (1) Revenue Requirement

(1) Period is for the 12 months ending on stated date (2) Excluded PNM South (formerly TNMP-New Mexico) rate base

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October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-16

Lost Load $28.0M

PNM South $12.3M

Rate Base Recovery $60.0M Fuel $12.8M

PNM Rate Case Drivers

Production O&M $19.2M Pension $16.9M Benefits $12.1M Other $3.9M

Total Requested Rate Increase = $165.2M

PNM North $152.9M PNM South $12.3M

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SLIDE 32

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-17

PNM Rate Increase Drivers

Rate Base Recovery $60.0M

Requested Rate Increase $165.2M

Return on Rate Base $39.9

  • Increase in ROE

$17.1

– Requested ROE of 11.75% – 10.5% ROE implied in current rates

  • Increase in rate base of $213M $22.8

– $1,702M filed rate base – $1,489M previously filed rate base

Return of Rate Base $20.1

  • Increase in depreciation expense

due to higher rate base $ 9.0

  • Increase in depreciation rates

$11.1

Total $60.0

(In millions)

PNM North

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SLIDE 33

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

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Non-fuel Operating Expenses(1)

Pension $16.9

Market performance $7.9 Modified method $9.0

Benefits $12.1 Production O&M (primarily outages) $19.2 Other $ 3.9

Total $52.1

Requested Rate Increase $165.2M

PNM North

PNM Rate Increase Drivers

(In millions)

(1) Excludes depreciation

Benefits $12.1M Pension $16.9M Production O&M $19.2M Other $3.9M

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SLIDE 34

October 29, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited

A-19

PNM North Lost Load $28.0

7,869 GWh projected in 2011 5% decrease from 8,317 GWh

projected in last filed case

Fuel $12.8 Total $40.8

Requested Rate Increase $165.2M

Lost Load $28.0M Fuel

$12.8M (In millions)

PNM Rate Increase Drivers