Third quarter 2009 results Jan Nooitgedagt, CFO Analyst & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Third quarter 2009 results Jan Nooitgedagt, CFO Analyst & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Third quarter 2009 results Jan Nooitgedagt, CFO Analyst & Investor conference call, November 12, 2009 Disclaimer Forward-looking statements The statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking


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Third quarter 2009 results

Jan Nooitgedagt, CFO

Analyst & Investor conference call, November 12, 2009

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Disclaimer

Forward-looking statements The statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The following are words that identify such forward-looking statements: aim, believe, estimate, target, intend, may, expect, anticipate, predict, project, counting on, plan, continue, want, forecast, goal, should, would, is confident, will, and similar expressions as they relate to our company. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. We undertake no obligation to publicly update

  • r revise any forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which merely reflect company

expectations at the time of writing. Actual results may differ materially from expectations conveyed in forward-looking statements due to changes caused by various risks and uncertainties. Such risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the following:

  • Changes in general economic conditions, particularly in the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom;
  • Changes in the performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, such as with regard to:
  • The frequency and severity of defaults by issuers in our fixed income investment portfolios; and
  • The effects of corporate bankruptcies and/or accounting restatements on the financial markets and the resulting decline in the value of equity and

debt securities we hold;

  • The frequency and severity of insured loss events;
  • Changes affecting mortality, morbidity and other factors that may impact the profitability of our insurance products;
  • Changes affecting interest rate levels and continuing low or rapidly changing interest rate levels;

interest rate levels and continuing low or rapidly changing interest rate levels;

  • Changes affecting
  • Changes affecting currency exchange rates, in particular the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP exchange rates;
  • Increasing levels of competition in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and emerging markets;
  • Changes in laws and regulations, particularly those affecting our operations, the products we sell, and the attractiveness of certain products to our consumers;
  • Regulatory changes relating to the insurance industry in the jurisdictions in which we operate;
  • Acts of God, acts of terrorism, acts of war and pandemics;
  • Effects of deliberations of the European Commission regarding the aid we received from the Dutch State in December 2008;
  • Changes in the policies of central banks and/or governments;
  • Litigation or regulatory action that could require us to pay significant damages or change the way we do business;
  • Customer responsiveness to both new products and distribution channels;
  • Competitive, legal, regulatory, or tax changes that affect the distribution cost of or demand for our products;
  • Our failure to achieve anticipated levels of earnings or operational efficiencies as well as other cost saving initiatives; and
  • The impact our adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards may have on our reported financial results and financial condition.

Further details of potential risks and uncertainties affecting the company are described in the company’s filings with Euronext Amsterdam and the US Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Annual Report on Form 20-F. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this document. Except as required by any applicable law or regulation, the company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the company’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

Local knowledge. Global power. 2

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Key messages

  • Return to profit
  • Repayment of EUR 1 billion
  • Further strengthened capital position
  • Revaluation reserves improve by EUR 3.3 billion in Q3 2009
  • Profitable sales and net deposits, evidence of strong franchise
  • Continued execution of strategy

Local knowledge. Global power. 3

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351 (184) 126 (100) (285) 48 189 145

Return to profit

  • Net income improved as a result of

– improved result on fair value items, due to rising financial markets, partly offset by equity hedging – substantially lower impairments on US housing market related assets – reversal of prior year tax charges Underlying earnings to net income development in Q3 2009 (EUR million)

(184) 126

Total impact Fair Value items EUR (58) million

351 (100) (285) 48 189 145

Underlying US equity Other Gains/Losses Impairment Other Income tax Net income earnings hedging fair value

  • n investments

charges Q3 2009 before tax items Q3 2009

Local knowledge. Global power. 4

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UEBT impacted by exceptionals and de-risking

  • Exceptional items:

– Provisions related to improvement of consistency of customer records in UK: EUR 43 million – Accelerated amortization of DPAC related to run off IMD: EUR 23 million

  • De-risking impact of EUR 40 million

Underlying earnings before tax in Q3 2009 (EUR million)

351 66 417 40

Underlying earnings before tax excluding exceptional items and impact of de- risking

Underlying earnings before tax Q3 09 Exceptional items Underlying earnings before tax pre- exceptionals Impact of 2009 de-risking

Local knowledge. Global power. 5

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Continued profitable sales, evidence of a strong franchise

  • US retail life sales up 11%
  • NL new life sales rose 63%
  • UK sales were stable
  • Net deposits* of EUR 2 billion more than double compared with Q2 09
  • VNB of EUR 169 million impacted by lower contribution from the UK and Spain
  • IRR substantially exceeding hurdle rate

New life sales Net deposits* Value of new business

(EUR million) (EUR million) (EUR million)

469

Local knowledge. Global power.

* Excluding institutional guaranteed products

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q3 09

6

857 1,980 181 169

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  • 400

Further reduced earnings sensitivity to equity markets

Estimated impact on net income* (EUR million)

Q3 2009

Equity market

Q2 2009 Q1 2009

  • 250
  • 20%

225

+20%

275

  • 525

400

  • 900
  • 125

125

  • 10% +10%
  • 225

150

  • 400

200 200

Estimated impact on capital* (EUR million)

Equity market

450

  • 475

+20%

425

  • 475
  • 20%

600

  • 700
  • 225

225

  • 225

225

+10%

  • 400
  • 10%

300

* Based on equity markets as of September 30, 2009

Local knowledge. Global power. 7

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Impact run-off institutional spread-based business

  • Run-off reduces sensitivity to credit markets
  • Balances reduced by USD 9 billion YTD 2009
  • On track to achieve reduction of USD 20 billion by 2010
  • USD 0.8 billion capital to be freed up in 2009 and 2010

Spread based balances (USD billion) Spread based balances (USD billion)

33

  • 27%

24 13 8 3 2 2008 Q3 2009 2010E 2012E 2014E 2016E

Local knowledge. Global power. 8

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  • Cost saving measures target of EUR 150 million achieved
  • Cost savings target for 2009 achieved
  • Operating expenses* decreased by 5% YTD 2009

Operating expenses*

(EUR million) 2,453 2,328 5%

Local knowledge. Global power. 9

* Operating expenses at constant currency excluding restructuring charges and certain employee benefit expenses

Other Countries & Holding United Kingdom Netherlands Americas

  • 5%

YTD 2008 YTD 2009

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Q2 ital

Excess capital supported by active capital management

Excess capital development Q3 2009 (EUR billion)

3.5 (0.2) (0.2) 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.0 (0.6) 4.8

Capital preservation

  • f EUR 0.9 billion

Q2 09 Excess Credit Rating Interest rates Capital De-risking Statutory Equity Other Q3 Q3 09 Excess capital impairments migration US & equity effeciency earnings

  • ffering

impacts capital market impact

Maintain larger capital buffer

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Local knowledge. Global power. 10

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.

  • e-r s ng

Successful capital release program

Capital released (EUR billion)

0.3 0.4 0.6 0 4 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.6

4.2

  • Capital efficiency

– Ca. 60% of capital preservation initiatives – Generally no material earnings impact – High RoC benefit – More efficient use of capital without meaningfully changing risk profile

D i ki

  • De-risking
  • Capital efficiency

0.7 0.6 2.6 0.4 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 T

  • tal
  • De-risking

– Ca. 40% of capital preservation initiatives – Negative earnings impact, but partly reversable – Neutral to negative RoC impact – Lowering capital requirements by lowering risk profile

Continue capital preservation actions

Local knowledge. Global power. 11

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. . . . . . . . .

Strong improvement in revaluation reserves

  • Shareholders’ equity increased significantly as a result of improved revaluation reserves

and the issuance of common shares

  • Improvement in revaluation reserves driven by narrowing credit spreads

and lower risk-free interest rates Core capital* development Q3 2009 (EUR billion)

7 6 7.6 3 3 3.3 1.0 1 0 (0 3) (0.3) 11.6 11 6 3.0 3 0 14.6 14 6 1 8 1.8 16 4 16.4

Q2 2009 Change in Equity offering Other Q3 2009 CCCS Core capital Revaluation Core capital shareholders' revaluation Changes** Shareholders’ Q3 2009 reserves excluding equity reserves equity revaluation reserves Q3 2009 * Core capital is the sum of shareholders’ equity and EUR 3 billion of convertible core capital securities ** Other changes includes net income, change in foreign currency translation reserve, coupons on perpetuals and other

Local knowledge. Global power. 12

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  • Continued efforts to reduce costs

Continued execution of strategic priorities

Reallocate capital towards businesses with higher growth and return prospects

  • EUR 0.9 billion freed up in Q3 09
  • Strong excess capital of EUR 4.8 billion
  • Continuation of capital preservation program
  • Final approval to launch business in Japan

Improve growth and return from existing business

  • EUR 150 million cost saving measures for 2009 already achieved
  • Operating expenses on comparable basis* decreased 5% in 9M 09
  • Continued efforts to reduce costs

Manage AEGON as an international company

  • Global asset management business started
  • European data center in the UK opened
  • Launch variable annuity products in the Netherlands and Japan (Q4)

Improve risk profile

  • 50% of equity exposure embedded in guarantees in the Netherlands hedged
  • Run-off of institutional spread-based business continued in Q3 09
  • Exposure to credit derivatives reduced

Local knowledge. Global power.

* Operating expenses at constant currency excluding restructuring charges and certain employee benefit expenses 13

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Key messages

  • Return to profit
  • Repayment of EUR 1 billion
  • Further strengthened capital position
  • Revaluation reserves improve by EUR 3.3 billion in Q3 2009
  • Profitable sales and net deposits, evidence of strong franchise
  • Continued execution of strategy

Local knowledge. Global power. 14

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Analyst & Investor Day

New York, December 2, 2009

Analyst & Investor Day

New York, December 2, 2009

Register via ir@aegon.com

LIFE INSURANCE | PENSIONS | INVESTMENTS

Local knowledge. Global power.

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Q&A

For questions please contact Investor Relations +31 70 344 8305 ir@aegon.com P.O. Box 85 2501 CB The Hague The Netherlands

Local knowledge. Global power. 16

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Upcoming AEGON events

Investor day at New York Stock Exchange Q4 2009 results Q1 2010 results & EV 2009 December 2, 2009 February 25, 2010 May 12, 2010

Local knowledge. Global power. 17

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Appendix

A break down of the general account investment portfolio can be found in the Financial Supplement

Local knowledge. Global power. 18

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ew e sa es ew e sa es ew e sa es New life sales

Strong new life sales, evidence of strong franchise

  • New life sales of EUR 484 million

– Americas’ retail new life sales improved 11% sequentially, driven by strong term life sales and higher universal life sales – Pension sales in the Netherlands were strong due to several new contracts – UK sales stable – Sales growth in CEE was offset by lower sales in Spain

New life sales lif l N lif l N lif l New life sales New life sales New life sales Americas The Netherlands United Kingdom Other countries (USD million) (EUR million) (GBP million) (EUR million)

184 202 223 218 47 41 32 52 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q3 09

Local knowledge. Global power. 19

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  • Americas – retail sales increased by 11%

Underlying earnings before tax

(USD million)

  • Underlying earnings continued to improve

substantially on recent quarters

  • Underlying earnings lower than last year due

to lower institutional product spreads, lower fee based revenues and increased employee benefit plan expenses

  • Positive impact of strong equity markets

resulting in medium-term equity market

578 371 403 Q3 08 Q2 09 Q3 09

Local knowledge. Global power. 20

New life sales overview

(USD million) Q3 09 Q2 09 Q3 08 Retail life insurance 152 137 160 BOLI/COLI 1 1 Life reinsurance 49 47 55

Gross deposit overview

Fixed annuities 691 1,292 1,811 Variable annuities 912 1,071 912 Retail mutual funds 732 513 758 Pensions & AM 2,841 2,623 2,834

resulting in medium term equity market return assumption of 8%, below long-term assumption of 9%

  • Fixed annuities sales were down, in line with

management expectations, as crediting rates were actively reduced

  • VNB of USD 92 million; IRR improved

sequentially from 11.1% to 12.1%

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The Netherlands – underlying earnings improved

  • Underlying earnings increased compared with

last year due to higher life and pensions profits Strong new life sales driven by pensions sales VNB rose to EUR 51 million; IRR improved due to a shift in business mix and is well above our internal hurdle rate of 11% above our internal hurdle rate of 11%

Underlying earnings before tax

(EUR million)

74 129 102 Q3 08 Q2 09 Q3 09 New life sales overview

(EUR million) Q3 09 Q2 09 Life insurance (APE) 19 19 Pensions (APE) 33 13 Total (APE) 52 32

Gross deposit overview

Savings deposits 1,795 779 Pensions & AM 173 62 Q3 08 23 16 39 547 18

Local knowledge. Global power. 21

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United Kingdom – loss due to exceptional charges

  • Exceptional charge of GBP 38 million related

to a program to improve consistency of customer records Gross deposits increased substantially following new asset management mandates VNB decreased to GBP 29 million mainly as a result of lower annuity sales a result of lower annuity sales IRR remained stable at 13.4%

Underlying earnings before tax

(GBP million)

28 17

  • 11

Q3 08 Q2 09 Q3 09

New life sales overview

(GBP million) Q3 09 Q2 09 Life insurance (APE) 40 41 Pensions (APE) 178 182 Total (APE) 218 223

Gross deposit overview

Pensions & AM 491 134 Q3 08 71 232 303 86

Local knowledge. Global power. 22

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Other countries – strong net deposits

  • Excluding Taiwan, underlying earnings

increased 60% compared to last year driven by improved results from CAM Vida and CEE New life sales were lower due to lower production in Spain and China, offsetting the growth in CEE VNB amounted to EUR 21 million; the VNB amounted to EUR 21 million; the higher contribution from European variable annuities was more than offset by lower VNB from Spain IRR remained at a high level

Underlying earnings before tax

(EUR million)

42 47 42 Q3 08 Q2 09 Q3 09

New life sales overview

(EUR million) Q3 09 Q2 09 Q3 08 Single premium 44 94 83 Recurring premium 37 37 43 Total (APE) 41 47 52

Gross deposit overview

Variable annuities 65 162 34 Retail mutual funds 433 292 218 Pensions & AM 238 199 222

Local knowledge. Global power. 23

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Continued strong net deposits

  • Gross deposits of EUR 6.8 billion*

– Higher saving deposits in the Netherlands, new asset management contracts in the UK and higher mutual fund sales in China – Pension deposits in the US continue to be strong

  • Net deposits of EUR 2 billion*

– Large increase in pensions and asset management Net deposit development in Q3 2009 (EUR million)

857 (370) (263) 397 232 1,127 1,980

Net deposits Q2 09 Fixed annuities * Excluding institutional guaranteed products Variable annuities Saving deposits Retail mutual funds Pensions & Asset Management Net deposits Q3 09

Local knowledge. Global power. 24

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Value of new business

  • Value of new business of EUR 169 million

– VNB growth in the Netherlands due to higher sales volumes and higher margins – Slight increase in VNB in the Americas in local currency driven by pensions and variable annuities partly offset by fixed annuity production – Lower contribution from the UK and Spain

  • Internal Rate of return of 18.5%

Americas* The Netherlands United Kingdom Other countries (USD million) (EUR million) (GBP million) (EUR million)

90 92 39 29 36 51 34 21 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q3 09

Q2 09 Q3 09

Q2 09 Q3 09 * Excluding institutional guaranteed products

Local knowledge. Global power. 25

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Lower US housing market related impairments

Impairments Q3 2009 (EUR million)

EUR million

IFRS ABS 39 CMBS 4 RMBS 35 Corporate – private 2 Corporate – public 145 Commercial mortgage loans 25 Equity like 1 Recoveries / Other (59) Americas 192 Netherlands 12 United Kingdom 80 Other countries 1 Total impairments before tax 285

  • Americas net impairments were at their lowest level in five quarters,

but higher than AEGON’s average long-term expectations

  • UK impairments rose to EUR 80 million, related to corporate credit investments

Local knowledge. Global power. 26

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Credit spreads tighter, Treasury rates higher

Option-adjusted spreads for generic market indices

Barcap Index 12/31/07 12/31/08 03/31/09 06/30/09 09/30/09 U.S. Corp IG 198 555 543 306 218 U.S. Corp High Yield 569 1,669 1,514 945 764 U.S. ABS [Housing] 486 1,702 2,063 1,588 1,303 U.S. ABS [Non-housing] 176 837 507 224 149 Investment Grade CMBS 187 1,067 1,090 811 576 U.S. MBS 87 145 102 36 38

U.S. treasury yield change

Local knowledge. Global power. 27