Energy Transition:- the Sustainability Agenda
Introduction…. energy is life Energy consumption drives life and prosperity • Hence the two main drivers of energy demand • are: Population ation growth th Lifestyles tyles – modernisati rnisation; on; sophi histi ticati tion Global energy demand in Bln Toe 20 Renewables Hydro Nuclear 15 Coal Gas Oil 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2019 BP Energy Outlook
Energy demand… continuous change • Global fuel mix 100 progressively 80 changing 60 demand growth (%) Percent of annual 40 • Renewable 20 0 fractions on -20 the rise -40 -60 2016 • Fossil fuels 2014-15 2016-20 1750-1800 1800-1830 1830-1860 1860-1880 1880-1900 1900-1920 1920-1940 1940-1960 1960-1980 1980-2000 2000-2008 2008-2011 2011-2013 continue to dominate
Climate Change… rising temperatures Rising sea levels Warming oceans Rising temperatures Decreasing snow cover Extreme events Ocean acidification
Global energy…. dual challenge How will the world d meet growin ing demand nd projec ectio ions ns within n acceptable eptable Demand enviro ironme nmental ntal and climati atic • Demand consider iderati ations? ns? growth • Increasing Moving in two Challenge population • Loss of opposite biodiversity Dual • Rising • Collapse of Supply middle class directions ecosystems • Sizeable • Rise in simultaneously temperature fossil fuels • Pressure on emissions to tackle climate change • Uncertainty ..never before has Environment of prices humanity faced • Rising costs such a challenging outlook!!
Energy transition… changing mix The world is currently • Coal, gas and oil maintained by fractions of all are extractives, fuel types hence exhaustible; unendurable • Temporal viability • Huge carbon fractions; high pollution • Unsuitable and intolerable • Irresponsible Gradual move away from hydrocarbons • Unsustainable
Foundations of sustainability Energy Availability Environment Acceptability Economy Affordability 3E 3Es 3P 3Ps 3A 3As • E nergy • P eople • A vailab rgy le ability ty • E conom • P rosper • A ffordabili nomy osperity ty rdability ty • E nvironm • P lanet • A ccept ironment ent et ceptabi ability ty ….meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs; it is much broader than being “green”.
Principles of sustainability Encompass sses es Sust stai ainab able le energ ergy y ultimatel mately y deliver ivers s E nerg y A vail ergy ilab abil ility ty Energ ergy y Secur curit ity • Inclus usive; e; all humanit ity for All P eopl ople • Prosperi perity ty (share hared) d) for all • Sustai ainab able e life assuran urance ce S • Non-destru estructi tive e co-ex existence tence A ffordable • Reinforc forcing ing elements nts E nviro ironme nmental tally ly Energy for A ccep E conomic & • Mutual al respon ponsibil ibilit ity across oss eptab able le P rofitable Energ ergy • Human n rights ts e P lanet growth for the net • Clean n and regenerat nerative ive earth th
Pathways to sustainability • SDG 7 COP 21 Paris Outlook ook for Energy gy • Global action to Mix reduce CO 2 50% intensity Oil 40% • Reducing gas flaring Coal 30% • Energy efficiency • EV and energy Gas 20% storage • Growth in gas and 10% renewables Hydro Nuclear • Sun-setting Renewables 0% funding in support 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 of fossil fuels • Long-term temperature goal is to keep • Aggressive decarbonization efforts • Citizens actions the increase in global average • Retire existing technologies; focus on • AI; IoT; Rise of the temperature to well below 2 °C innovation and new technologies Robots
Pathways…. climate change action WEF 2020
Pathways… innovation & technology Advanced Innovative cities Transportation Remote collaborator Drones Artificial Smart/PV Homes/EVs Intelligence
Africa’s sustainability challenges Racial and ethnic Growing Kidnapping intolerance population Unemployment Religious intolerance Aggrieved Hate Strange youths Anger diseases Insufficient Need to exploit electricity Hunger abundant non- Terrorism renewable resources Extreme Conflicts Xenophobia poverty Climate Robbery New change scramble for Africa Africa is energy-insecure and remains very vulnerable; journey to sustainability still some distance away!!
Energy transition in Africa • Over 1.2 billion people; 70% without reliable electricity; struggle for basic water and sanitation • There’s broad development question • Good news:-wave of new hydrocarbon discoveries, 25-35% global finds; rush to production and monetization • Also, abundant idle coal & renewables • Must utilize her resources to cover gaps Fundamentally, Africa must devise a Africa’s energy paced home-grown energy transition landscape is changing, roadmap using its non-renewable fuel but not in a uniform sources to accelerate the journey direction
Energy transition in Nigeria • Make “2020 Year of gas’ a reality • Grow domestic gas; further expand export • Aim to grow oil production with total flaring < 5% • Put inactive coal to use again; encourage uptake of renewables • Accelerate the development of carbonized resources (coal, oil & gas) to energize other sectors of the economy preparatory to replacing them with renewables (solar, hydro, wind, biomass) later
Sustainability… 9 priorities of MPR E1 E1 Eradicate smuggling Aggressively E1 E1 of PMS across E2 E2 1 promote passage 5 E2 E2 Nigerian boarders E3 E3 of the PIB Aggressively promote E1 E1 Complete gas-flare E1 E1 passage of the DOIB commercialization 6 E2 E2 E2 E2 2 PSC Amendment programme E3 E3 Increase crude oil E1 E1 E1 E1 Aggressively increase production to domestic refining E2 E2 E2 E2 7 3 3 MMb/d capacity Collaborate with the Reduce the cost of E1 E1 E2 E2 private sector to create 8 crude oil extraction E2 E2 4 well-paying jobs for by at least 5% Nigerian youths
Sustainability… 9 priorities of MPR Implement a strategy to E1 E1 support taking 100 mln E2 E2 9 Nigerians out of poverty in 10yrs • Means making the best of all we • More ore and Availa lable ble Energy for all have urgently (coal, oil, gas etc) humanity • Partnering with investors and • Cheap ap and Affordable ordable Energy for technology providers to stretch all humanity the value of our natural resources • Clean and environ ironment mentally ally Acceptable ceptable Energy for all humanity
Lastly……. Energy Institute Energy gy advocac ocacy • Membership & • Our ambition is that Energy gy policy • energy, and its critical Professional role in our world, is recognition Energy gy educat atio ion • better understood, Knowledge Energy gy skill lls s & managed and valued • Sharing • Our role is to bring global competen etencies es Capacity expertise together and Building foster good relations while promoting best practices and standards Technical Work • We share essential Programme knowledge about energy, the skills that are helping Technical us all use it more wisely, Publications and the good practice needed to keep it safe and secure The EI serves as the honest broker between the industry, academia and policy makers providing evidence-based collaboration and quality energy education
Global energy transition Sustain inab able le Unsustain tainable ble • Extractive and • Natural; exhaustible; regenerative unendurable • Clean; zero • Temporal viability carbon • Huge carbon • Stable; respond fractions; high to changing pollution demographics • Unsuitable and • Less waste; non- intolerable destructive • Irresponsible • Everlasting earth and well being of Th The wo world is currently rently humanity ma maintain tained ed by fractio actions ns of both h
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