the Sustainability Agenda Introduction. energy is life Energy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Energy Transition:-

the Sustainability Agenda

Introduction….energy is life

• Energy consumption drives life and prosperity
• Hence the two main drivers of energy demand

are:  Population ation growth th  Lifestyles tyles – modernisati rnisation;

• n; sophi

histi ticati tion

5 10 15 20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

2019 BP Energy Outlook

Global energy demand in Bln Toe

Energy demand…continuous change

1750-1800 1800-1830 1830-1860 1860-1880 1880-1900 1900-1920 1920-1940 1940-1960 1960-1980 1980-2000 2000-2008 2008-2011 2011-2013 2014-15 2016 2016-20

Percent of annual demand growth (%)

• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40

60 80

100

• Global fuel mix

progressively changing

• Renewable

fractions on the rise

• Fossil fuels

continue to dominate

Ocean acidification Decreasing snow cover Extreme events Rising temperatures Warming oceans

Climate Change…rising temperatures

Rising sea levels

Global energy…. dual challenge

• Demand

growth

• Increasing

population

• Rising

middle class

• Sizeable

fossil fuels

• Loss of

biodiversity

• Collapse of

ecosystems

• Rise in

temperature

• Pressure on

emissions to tackle climate change

• Uncertainty
• f prices
• Rising costs

Dual Challenge

Demand Supply Environment

Moving in two

• pposite

directions simultaneously

How will the world d meet growin ing demand nd projec ectio ions ns within n acceptable eptable enviro ironme nmental ntal and climati atic consider iderati ations? ns?

..never before has humanity faced such a challenging

• utlook!!

Energy transition…changing mix

The world is currently maintained by fractions of all fuel types

• Coal, gas and oil

are extractives, hence exhaustible; unendurable

• Temporal viability
• Huge carbon

fractions; high pollution

• Unsuitable and

intolerable

• Irresponsible
• Unsustainable

Gradual move away from hydrocarbons

Energy Economy Environment Availability Affordability Acceptability

Foundations of sustainability

3P 3Ps 3E 3Es 3A 3As

• People

le

• Prosper
• sperity

ty

• Planet

et

• Energy

rgy

• Econom

nomy

• Environm

ironment ent

• Availab

ability ty

• Affordabili

rdability ty

• Accept

ceptabi ability ty ….meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs; it is much broader than being

“green”.

Encompass sses es

• Inclus

usive; e; all humanit ity

• Prosperi

perity ty (share hared) d) for all

• Sustai

ainab able e life assuran urance ce

• Non-destru

estructi tive e co-ex existence tence

• Reinforc

forcing ing elements nts

• Mutual

al respon ponsibil ibilit ity across

• ss
• Human

n rights ts

• Clean

n and regenerat nerative ive earth th

Energ

ergy y Avail ilab abil ility ty for All Peopl

• ple

Affordable

Energy for

Economic & Profitable

growth

Enviro

ironme nmental tally ly

Accep

eptab able le Energ ergy for the e Planet net

S

Principles of sustainability

Sust stai ainab able le energ ergy y ultimatel mately y deliver ivers s Energ ergy y Secur curit ity

Pathways to sustainability

• Long-term temperature goal is to keep

the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C

COP 21 Paris

10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Oil Gas Renewables Coal Hydro Nuclear

Outlook

• ok for Energy

gy Mix

• Aggressive decarbonization efforts
• Retire existing technologies; focus on

innovation and new technologies

• SDG 7
• Global action to

reduce CO2 intensity

• Reducing gas

flaring

• Energy efficiency
• EV and energy

storage

• Growth in gas and

renewables

• Sun-setting

funding in support

• f fossil fuels
• Citizens actions
• AI; IoT; Rise of the

Robots

Pathways….climate change action

WEF 2020

Remote collaborator Artificial Intelligence Innovative cities Smart/PV Homes/EVs Advanced Transportation Drones

Pathways…innovation & technology

Africa’s sustainability challenges

Anger Xenophobia Racial and ethnic intolerance Robbery Kidnapping Terrorism Strange diseases Religious intolerance Hate Growing population Extreme poverty Aggrieved youths Hunger Conflicts New scramble for Africa Unemployment Insufficient electricity Climate change

Africa is energy-insecure and remains very vulnerable; journey to sustainability still some distance away!!

Need to exploit abundant non- renewable resources

Energy transition in Africa

• Over 1.2 billion people; 70% without

reliable electricity; struggle for basic water and sanitation

• There’s broad development question
• Good news:-wave of new hydrocarbon

discoveries, 25-35% global finds; rush to production and monetization

• Also, abundant idle coal & renewables
• Must utilize her resources to cover gaps

Fundamentally, Africa must devise a paced home-grown energy transition roadmap using its non-renewable fuel sources to accelerate the journey

Africa’s energy landscape is changing, but not in a uniform direction

Energy transition in Nigeria

• Make “2020 Year of gas’ a reality
• Grow domestic gas; further expand

export

• Aim to grow oil production with total

flaring < 5%

• Put inactive coal to use again;

encourage uptake of renewables

• Accelerate the development of

carbonized resources (coal, oil & gas) to energize other sectors of the economy preparatory to replacing them with renewables (solar, hydro, wind, biomass) later

Eradicate smuggling

• f PMS across

Nigerian boarders Complete gas-flare commercialization programme Increase crude oil production to 3 MMb/d

Sustainability…9 priorities of MPR

Reduce the cost of crude oil extraction by at least 5% Aggressively promote passage

• f the PIB

Aggressively promote passage of the DOIB PSC Amendment Aggressively increase domestic refining capacity Collaborate with the private sector to create well-paying jobs for Nigerian youths

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

E1 E1 E2 E2 E1 E1 E2 E2 E3 E3 E1 E1 E2 E2 E1 E1 E2 E2 E1 E1 E2 E2 E3 E3 E1 E1 E2 E2 E1 E1 E2 E2 E2 E2

Implement a strategy to support taking 100 mln Nigerians out of poverty in 10yrs E1 E1 E2 E2

9

Sustainability…9 priorities of MPR

• More
• re and Availa

lable ble Energy for all humanity

• Cheap

ap and Affordable

• rdable Energy for

all humanity

• Clean and environ

ironment mentally ally Acceptable ceptable Energy for all humanity

• Means making the best of all we

have urgently (coal, oil, gas etc)

• Partnering with investors and

technology providers to stretch the value of our natural resources

Membership & Professional recognition Knowledge Sharing Capacity Building Technical Work Programme Technical Publications

The EI serves as the honest broker between the industry, academia and policy makers providing evidence-based collaboration and quality energy education

• Our ambition is that

energy, and its critical role in our world, is better understood, managed and valued

• Our role is to bring global

expertise together and foster good relations while promoting best practices and standards

• We share essential

knowledge about energy, the skills that are helping us all use it more wisely, and the good practice needed to keep it safe and secure

• Energy

gy advocac

• cacy
• Energy

gy policy

• Energy

gy educat atio ion

• Energy

gy skill lls s & competen etencies es

Lastly……. Energy Institute

• Extractive and

exhaustible; unendurable

• Temporal viability
• Huge carbon

fractions; high pollution

• Unsuitable and

intolerable

• Irresponsible
• Natural;

regenerative

• Clean; zero

carbon

• Stable; respond

to changing demographics

• Less waste; non-

destructive

• Everlasting earth

and well being of humanity

Sustain inab able le Unsustain tainable ble

Global energy transition

Th The wo world is currently rently ma maintain tained ed by fractio actions ns of both h