The Statistical Implications of Economic Globalisation Presenting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Statistical Implications of Economic Globalisation Presenting the effects of economic globalisation to the public: what and how? DGINS, October 09-10, 2019, Bratislava, Vladimir Vano ECB: Unprecedented Times Key Interest rates vs. Consumer
Presenting the effects of economic globalisation to the public: what and how?
DGINS, October 09-10, 2019, Bratislava, Vladimir Vano
Key Interest rates vs. Consumer Price Inflation
Aramco Attacks, September 14, 2019
Each US Recession was preceded by oil spike
Trade war has spiked geopolitical risk up to new highs
Support to economic growth causes subdued risk spreads
Highest since 2009 as per NY Fed Model
Recession of German Industry
Growth Outlook for Next Year
PMI - Purchasing Managers Index
PMI
The first annual growth of defaulted mortgages since 2009
The slowest growth of Chinese industry since 2002
Trade war is increasing risk of recession before 2020 elections
Obchodná vojna zvyšuje riziko recesie pred voľbami 2020
The credit cycle is leading the economic cycle. It takes one to 5yrs from from the moment the credit cycle turns until the labor market tilts.
Drop of Long-term Interest Rates below Short-Term Interest Rates
Drop of Long-term Interest Rates below Short-Term Interest Rates
Cycles in Economy and in Markets