“The State of Trade” What Laredo Does for the U.S., What Washington Does for Laredo
Ken Roberts • Contributor to Forbes.com since 2017. • One of dozen members of Federal Reserve Trade and Transportation Advisory Board, in second term. • Founder of WorldCity, USTradeNumbers.com, publisher of Port Laredo TradeNumbers, similar publications in more than 20 markets. • Host of weekly Trade Matters videos. @TradeDataGuy • Speaker on international trade to fortune 500 companies, national trade organizations and more.
Posts at Forbes.com Five monthly columns at Forbes.com on trade-related issues.
Monthly data updates online At USTradeNumbers.com, you’ll find individual pages, updated monthly, for every country, more than 450 airports, seaports and border crossings plus 1,800 specific products.
TradeNumbers for download Downloads available for a wide variety of TradeNumbers publications available at worldcityweb.com
#TradeMatters: Weekly videos Visit youtube.com/ustradenumbers for weekly updates on important trade issues.
Connect • kroberts@worldcityweb.com • Follow me on Twitter, LinkedIn or at Forbes.com @TradeDataGuy
Question: What do these things have in common?
Question: What do these things have in common?
Question: What do these things have in common?
Question: What do these things have in common?
Question: What do these things have in common?
More than 50 percent of all U.S. imports of these products enter at Port Laredo Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
Take 2: What do these things have in common?
Question: What do these things have in common?
Question: What do these things have in common?
More than 50 percent of all U.S. exports of these products exit from Port Laredo Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
One last time: What do these things have in common?
One last time: What do these things have in common?
One last time: What do these things have in common?
One last time: What do these things have in common?
One last time: What do these things have in common?
One last time: What do these things have in common?
One last time: What do these things have in common?
Port Laredo ranks first among more than 450 U.S. airports, seaports and border crossings for these U.S. imports Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
Port Laredo ranks first for 73 specific import commodities. Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
Port Laredo ranks in the top five for 245 of the 1,265 specific import commodities – about 20 percent of all categories. Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
Port Laredo ranks first in the nation for exports among the 450-plus U.S. airports, seaports and border crossings. Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
Port Laredo is the first U.S. port to top $100 billion in U.S. exports, accomplished in 2018. Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
Port Laredo is the nation’s second -ranked port, trailing only the Port of Los Angeles. Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
Port Laredo helps power the U.S. economy
Connect • kroberts@worldcityweb.com • Follow me on Twitter, LinkedIn or at Forbes.com @TradeDataGuy
Bill Lane • Executive Director of Trade For America , a coalition supporting the modernization of NAFTA and KORUS • Named one of Washington’s top public policy officials by The Hill newspaper for 11 consecutive years • A 40-year veteran at Caterpillar, where he ultimately oversaw global trade policy.
Trade For America Seeks to Highlight the Economic and Strategic Benefits of Trade for the U.S.
The Key to Success... ...is to continually improve U.S. competitiveness — better infrastructure, lower taxes, fewer regulations and better education.
Traditionally, The Biggest Beneficiary Of Trade Is The Consumer (i.e., You) Trade and investment liberalization policies save the average American family of four more than $10,000 per year.
NAFTA/USMCA Trade: Front Page News Since 2016 • Safeguard Tariffs On Solar Panels And Wash Machines • National Security Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum • Intellectual Property Tariffs On China... Followed By More And Larger Tariffs • Aid & More Aid To Farmers • TPP Without the U.S. • New Congress • Threat of Immigration Tariffs
USMCA is Better than NAFTA & NAFTA was a Big Improvement Change In U.S. Goods And Services Traded With Canada And Mexico (1993-2017, In Billions Of Dollars) Approx. 4 Fold • 232 National Security tariffs $1,200 $1,139.17 1993 2017 are an obstacle Goods And Services Traded $1,000 • TPP-11 work Approx. 3 Approx. 7 around could Fold Fold $800 prove costly (In Billions) $581.58 $557.58 $600 $400 $293.16 $211.66 $200 $81.50 $0 Canada Total Mexico Source: "Trade in Goods," U.S. Census Bureau
Mexico And Canada Are The United States' Largest Export Markets Destination Of U.S. Goods Exports U.S. Goods Exports (In Billions) $600 Mexico Canada $ 496 B Total $500 $400 $ 230 B $300 $ 199 B Total $ 31 B France $ 184 B Total $ 179 B Total $200 $ 68 B Other $ 49 B Germany $ 267 B $ 137 B Other $100 $ 55 B UK $ 116 B China $ 63 B Japan $ 42 B Korea $0 NAFTA High Population High Income Other FTA Countries (8) # Countries (4) * Countries (18) ^ Countries #High Population Countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia *High Income Countries: France, Germany , Japan, United Kingdom ^Other FTA Countries: Australia, Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Jordan, Korea, Morocco, Nicaragua, Oman, Panama, Peru, Singapore
China: Is One Wall Enough?
We had other options for dealing with China
Who Wins in a Trade War? No One? 1 The United States? China? 2 3 Those On The Sidelines • Soybeans — Brazil (Rain Forest?), Argentina • Wheat — Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan • Remember the Soviet Grain Embargo Beware of the pre-buys, followed by no-buys! 4 "Just In Time" vs. "Just In Case" inventory 5
Auto Tariffs Are Next Or is it time to start treating allies like allies?
Trade Prognosis New Congress: Core partisan beliefs will soon be tested 1 USA/China: World economy slowing, twin engines of 2 global economic growth at odds Allies: Car tariffs will test relationships 3 USMCA/NAFTA: Failure is not an option 4 TPP: May soon be rediscovered 5
The Best Lobbyist I Have Ever Met 46
A Personal Note • Allies are the key to resolving our differences with China. • Unilateral sanctions are almost always costly and counterproductive. Damage to export markets will be lasting. • Never lose sight of the importance of improving competitiveness.
America’s best and worst trade agreement
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