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The State of Oakland Business January 26, 2017 1 Analysis. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The State of Oakland Business January 26, 2017 1 Analysis. Answers. East Bay Labor Market Nov-16 Change YoY Growth Industry YoY Nonfarm Employment Growth (000s) (000s) (%) EducaIon/Health 188.1 7.9 4.4 4 Leisure and Hospitality

  1. The State of Oakland Business January 26, 2017 1 Analysis. Answers.

  2. East Bay Labor Market Nov-16 Change YoY Growth Industry YoY Nonfarm Employment Growth (000s) (000s) (%) EducaIon/Health 188.1 7.9 4.4 4 Leisure and Hospitality 114.8 7.4 6.9 3.5 ConstrucIon 68.5 4.4 6.8 Prof Sci and Tech 96.0 1.5 1.6 3 Wholesale Trade 49.6 1.3 2.7 2.5 Transport,Warehouse,UIl. 40.5 1.1 2.8 Real Estate 17.6 1.0 5.9 2 Other Services 38.9 0.6 1.6 1.5 InformaIon 23.1 0.5 2.3 Retail Trade 114.6 0.5 0.4 1 Finance and Insurance 32.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 Management 28.8 -0.1 -0.2 0 NR/Mining 0.8 -0.1 -11.6 Admin Support 59.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 Manufacturing 85.9 -1.6 -1.9 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Total Private 959.4 24.1 2.6 Total Government 170.0 1.3 0.8 Total Nonfarm 1,129.4 25.4 2.3 2 Analysis. Answers.

  3. Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Jan-02 to Nov-16 2007 to 2015 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3 Jan-02 Apr-03 Jul-04 Oct-05 Jan-07 Apr-08 Jul-09 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-13 Jul-14 Oct-15 City of Oakland California Oakland East Bay California California East Bay ParIcipaIon Rate (%) 68.3 65.6 63.0 3 Analysis. Answers.

  4. Spending Activity Taxable Sales Index Hotel AcIvity, YTD through October 2016 Q1-10 to Q2-16 Avg. Daily Growth Occupancy Change LocaIon Rate ($) (%) Rate (p.p.) 150 Index = 100 in Q1-10 (SA) Oakland/East Bay 151.39 9.9 81.5 -1.9 140 130 Monterey/Carmel 323.64 2.3 77.1 -0.6 120 San Francisco 285.76 3.1 80.1 1.0 Napa County 270.56 3.0 78.3 -1.7 110 100 San Jose/Peninsula 209.85 7.1 81.8 -2.4 90 Sonoma County 175.00 7.2 80.5 -2.1 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Marin County 168.32 6.1 84.5 2.0 Sacramento 118.92 6.6 76.4 -1.4 Oakland Balance of East Bay Central Valley 89.42 5.6 74.1 1.0 4 Analysis. Answers.

  5. Tourism / Travel Hotel StaIsIcs, YTD through October Oakland Airport Traffic Average Daily Rate Occupancy Rate Jan-07 to Aug-16 Region YTD 1,300 2016 YTD 2016 YTD YTD Chg Growth Passengers (000s, SA) ($) (%) (p.p.) 1,200 (%) 1,100 San Francisco 286 3.1 89.1 1.0 Napa County 271 3.0 78.3 -1.7 1,000 South Bay 210 7.1 81.8 -2.4 900 Sonoma County 175 7.2 80.5 -2.1 800 Marin County 168 6.1 84.5 2.0 East Bay 151 9.9 81.5 -1.9 700 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 May-15 Mar-16 Other NorCal 97 6.2 72.5 1.8 Regional Average 204 5.3 82.0 -0.4 5 Analysis. Answers.

  6. Seaport Activity Industrial Vacancy Rates Port of Oakland YTD through Nov-16 22 35 20 Value ($ Billions) 30 25 18 20 16 15 10 14 5 12 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (YTD) 2016 (YTD) 10 8 Exports Imports Flex/R&D Warehouse/DistribuIon 6 Analysis. Answers.

  7. Non-Residential Real Estate Cost of Rent YoY Rent Growth (%) NR Permits Oakland Oakland East Property Submarkets Submarkets Bay East Bay 400000 Office 31.1 29.8 11.1 7.4 350000 Retail 30.8 29.6 4.4 1.6 300000 Flex/R&D 9.3 9.5 1.7 2.9 250000 Warehouse 4.9 5.5 3.2 2.6 200000 YoY Vacancy Change (p.p.) Vacancy Rate 150000 Oakland Oakland East 100000 Property Submarkets Submarkets Bay East Bay 50000 Office 11.4 14.1 -1.8 -1.6 Retail 5.4 6.8 0.6 0.4 0 Q3-08 Q2-09 Q1-10 Q4-10 Q2-15 Q1-16 Q1-07 Q4-07 Q3-11 Q2-12 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Flex/R&D 3.6 12.1 -0.8 -1.4 Warehouse 7.5 8.8 -1.4 -0.7 Alameda Contra Costa 7 Analysis. Answers.

  8. Homes ExisIng SFR Median ResidenIal Units California Home Prices, Q3-16 Prices, YoY 70000 Q1-05 to Q3-16 Growth County Median Price 60000 (%) 550,000 50000 500,000 Monterey 517,400 13.7 450,000 40000 San Luis Obispo 537,200 8.1 400,000 Inland Empire 306,400 8.0 30000 350,000 San Diego 536,400 6.0 300,000 20000 250,000 San Francisco 1,221,500 5.8 10000 200,000 Orange County 696,200 3.7 150,000 0 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-95 Q2-97 Q3-99 Q4-01 Q1-04 Q2-06 Q3-08 Q4-10 Q1-13 Q2-15 South Bay 919,000 2.3 Santa Barbara 461,600 -4.1 SF MF California Los Angeles 542,600 6.9 8 Analysis. Answers.

  9. East Bay Housing SF Permits Home Prices 1800 800000 1600 700000 1400 600000 1200 500000 1000 400000 800 300000 600 200000 400 100000 200 0 0 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Alameda Contra Costa Alameda Contra Costa 9 Analysis. Answers.

  10. Rental Market Trends Cost of Rent Vacancy Rate East Bay Apartment Market YoY YoY 1,800 7 Growth Change Q3-16 Q3-16 1,700 6 ($/mo.) (%) (%) (p.p.) Cost of Rent ($/mo} Submarket 1,600 Vacancy Rate (%) 5 San Leandro/Hayward 1,644 8.3 1.6 0.0 1,500 San Ramon/Walnut 4 1,400 Creek 1,774 6.1 3.3 0.4 1,300 3 East Contra Costa 1,541 5.8 2.3 0.0 1,200 2 Fremont/Newark/ 1,100 Union City 1,845 5.4 2.6 0.7 1 1,000 West Contra Costa 1,906 4.6 2.9 0.6 900 0 Q1-08 Q4-08 Q3-09 Q2-10 Q1-11 Q4-11 Q3-12 Q2-13 Q1-14 Q4-14 Q3-15 Q2-16 North Alameda 1,939 4.0 5.6 0.8 East Alameda 1,889 2.6 3.3 1.2 Concord/MarInez 1,525 2.1 2.0 0.1 Cost of Rent Vacancy Rate 10 Analysis. Answers.

  11. Rent vs. Income Median Monthly Rent ($) Renter Median Income ($) 15-14 15-14 2015 2014 2015 2014 Chg % Chg % California California 1,311 1,268 3.4% 44,642 42,305 5.5% East Bay 1,525 1,409 8.2% San Francisco 72,428 66,528 8.9% San Jose 1,894 1,779 6.5% East Bay 55,440 51,435 7.8% Sacramento 1,109 1,057 4.9% San Jose 75,436 70,269 7.4% San Francisco 1,741 1,664 4.6% San Diego 49,741 46,750 6.4% San Diego 1,427 1,373 3.9% LA County 41,666 39,678 5.0% Orange County 1,624 1,572 3.3% Sacramento 38,746 37,704 2.8% LA County 1,279 1,239 3.2% Inland Empire 37,484 37,136 0.9% Inland Empire 1,166 1,159 0.6% Orange County 53,440 52,973 0.9% 11 Analysis. Answers.

  12. Rent vs. Income Rent as Share of Income Rent Burden (%) 2015 2014 Change 2015 2014 2013 California 55.7 56.8 -1.1 California 35.2% 36.0% 36.2% San Diego 56.7 56.7 0.0 Inland Empire 37.3% 37.5% 37.1% Orange County 57.7 58.0 -0.3 LA County 36.8% 37.5% 38.1% Sacramento 54.2 55.1 -0.9 Orange County 36.5% 35.6% 36.0% LA County 58.8 60.1 -1.3 San Diego 34.4% 35.2% 35.6% East Bay 51.2 52.6 -1.5 Sacramento 34.3% 33.6% 35.1% San Jose 47.4 49.3 -1.9 East Bay 33.0% 32.9% 34.9% Inland Empire 58.7 60.6 -1.9 San Jose 30.1% 30.4% 32.0% San Francisco 39.4 42.5 -3.1 San Francisco 28.8% 30.0% 30.5% 12 Analysis. Answers.

  13. City of Oakland Labor Market Employment Industry Oakland Total Employment (000s) 2008 to 2015 Health Care 37.3 1.9 Prof, Sci, Tech 19.9 6.1 180,000 Hospitality 17.2 5.8 175,000 Transport 11.9 4.1 Retail Trade 11.1 2.2 170,000 Admin Support 10.6 3.9 165,000 Other Svcs. 8.7 4.7 160,000 Fin. Svcs Real Estate 7.4 2.1 NR/ConstrucIon 6.9 7.6 155,000 Manufacturing 6.7 -3.9 150,000 Wholesale Trade 6.1 2.6 EducaIon 5.8 -0.7 145,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 InformaIon 3.2 18.1 Government 26.1 1.6 Total 178.8 3.3 13 Analysis. Answers.

  14. City of Oakland Avg. Annual Wage Avg. Wage Industry ($000s) Oakland Total Avg. Wage InformaIon 114.3 2.3 2008 to 2015 Prof, Sci, Tech, and Mgmt 109.0 4.3 68,000 Fin. Svcs. and Real Estate 90.1 11.8 66,000 Wholesale Trade 84.3 11.1 64,000 Manufacturing 77.8 8.3 62,000 NR/ConstrucIon 76.6 7.7 60,000 Transport/Warehouse/UIl 65.2 4.1 58,000 Health Care 60.6 4.6 56,000 EducaIon 46.3 8.7 54,000 Other Svcs. 43.2 6.9 52,000 Admin Support 38.7 4.9 50,000 Retail Trade 38.6 7.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Leisure and Hospitality 35.6 9.2 Government 73.2 5.5 Total 66.0 6.3 14 Analysis. Answers.

  15. Employment by Establishment Type Private Employment by Establishment Type in the City of Oakland, 2015 Total Share of Growth Since 2011 Employment Employment Establishment Type (000s) (000s) (%) (%) Establishment Size Less than 15 Employees 39.7 7.9 25.0 26.0 15 to 24 Employees 13.3 1.8 15.4 8.7 25 to 49 Employees 18.6 2.6 16.6 12.2 50 to 150 Employees 31.5 2.7 9.5 20.6 More than 150 Employees 49.5 4.6 10.3 32.5 Establishment Average Wage Less than $25,000 38.7 8.8 29.3 25.4 $25,000 to $50,000 43.5 3.9 10.0 28.5 More than $50,000 70.5 7.0 11.0 46.1 15 Analysis. Answers.

  16. Tech in Oakland – On the Rise Oakland Tech Establishments Oakland Tech Employment Q1-08 to Q3-15 Q1-08 to Q4-15 255 27 7,000 15 Employment (SA, Smoothed) 26 6,500 10 235 25 YoY Growth (%) 24 6,000 5 215 23 5,500 0 22 195 21 5,000 -5 175 20 4,500 -10 Q1-08 Q3-08 Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 4,000 -15 Q1-08 Q4-08 Q3-09 Q2-10 Q1-11 Q4-11 Q3-12 Q2-13 Q1-14 Q4-14 Q3-15 Oakland Tech Establishments Avg. Employees per Establishment Tech Employment YoY Growth 16 Analysis. Answers.

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