The State of Oakland Business January 26, 2017 1 Analysis. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The State of Oakland Business January 26, 2017 1 Analysis. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 25, 2024 284 likes •487 views

The State of Oakland Business January 26, 2017 1 Analysis. Answers. East Bay Labor Market Nov-16 Change YoY Growth Industry YoY Nonfarm Employment Growth (000s) (000s) (%) EducaIon/Health 188.1 7.9 4.4 4 Leisure and Hospitality

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  • Analysis. Answers.

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The State of Oakland Business

January 26, 2017

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  • Analysis. Answers.

East Bay Labor Market

2

  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

YoY Nonfarm Employment Growth

Industry Nov-16 (000s) Change (000s) YoY Growth (%) EducaIon/Health 188.1 7.9 4.4 Leisure and Hospitality 114.8 7.4 6.9 ConstrucIon 68.5 4.4 6.8 Prof Sci and Tech 96.0 1.5 1.6 Wholesale Trade 49.6 1.3 2.7 Transport,Warehouse,UIl. 40.5 1.1 2.8 Real Estate 17.6 1.0 5.9 Other Services 38.9 0.6 1.6 InformaIon 23.1 0.5 2.3 Retail Trade 114.6 0.5 0.4 Finance and Insurance 32.3 0.1 0.3 Management 28.8

  • 0.1
  • 0.2

NR/Mining 0.8

  • 0.1
  • 11.6

Admin Support 59.8

  • 0.3
  • 0.4

Manufacturing 85.9

  • 1.6
  • 1.9

Total Private 959.4 24.1 2.6 Total Government 170.0 1.3 0.8 Total Nonfarm 1,129.4 25.4 2.3

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Unemployment

3 5 7 9 11 13 Jan-02 Apr-03 Jul-04 Oct-05 Jan-07 Apr-08 Jul-09 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-13 Jul-14 Oct-15

Unemployment Rate (%) Jan-02 to Nov-16

California East Bay 3 5 7 9 11 13 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Unemployment Rate (%) 2007 to 2015

City of Oakland California Oakland East Bay California ParIcipaIon Rate (%) 68.3 65.6 63.0

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Spending Activity

4

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16

Index = 100 in Q1-10 (SA)

Taxable Sales Index Q1-10 to Q2-16

Oakland Balance of East Bay Hotel AcIvity, YTD through October 2016 LocaIon

  • Avg. Daily

Rate ($) Growth (%) Occupancy Rate Change (p.p.) Oakland/East Bay 151.39 9.9 81.5

  • 1.9

Monterey/Carmel 323.64 2.3 77.1

  • 0.6

San Francisco 285.76 3.1 80.1 1.0 Napa County 270.56 3.0 78.3

  • 1.7

San Jose/Peninsula 209.85 7.1 81.8

  • 2.4

Sonoma County 175.00 7.2 80.5

  • 2.1

Marin County 168.32 6.1 84.5 2.0 Sacramento 118.92 6.6 76.4

  • 1.4

Central Valley 89.42 5.6 74.1 1.0

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Tourism / Travel

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Hotel StaIsIcs, YTD through October Region Average Daily Rate Occupancy Rate 2016 YTD ($) YTD Growth (%) 2016 YTD (%) YTD Chg (p.p.) San Francisco 286 3.1 89.1 1.0 Napa County 271 3.0 78.3

  • 1.7

South Bay 210 7.1 81.8

  • 2.4

Sonoma County 175 7.2 80.5

  • 2.1

Marin County 168 6.1 84.5 2.0 East Bay 151 9.9 81.5

  • 1.9

Other NorCal 97 6.2 72.5 1.8 Regional Average 204 5.3 82.0

  • 0.4

700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 May-15 Mar-16

Passengers (000s, SA)

Oakland Airport Traffic Jan-07 to Aug-16

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Seaport Activity

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (YTD) 2016 (YTD)

Value ($ Billions)

Port of Oakland YTD through Nov-16

Exports Imports

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Industrial Vacancy Rates

Flex/R&D Warehouse/DistribuIon

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Non-Residential Real Estate

Property

Cost of Rent YoY Rent Growth (%) Oakland Submarkets East Bay Oakland Submarkets East Bay

Office 31.1 29.8 11.1 7.4 Retail 30.8 29.6 4.4 1.6 Flex/R&D 9.3 9.5 1.7 2.9 Warehouse 4.9 5.5 3.2 2.6 Property

Vacancy Rate YoY Vacancy Change (p.p.) Oakland Submarkets East Bay Oakland Submarkets East Bay

Office 11.4 14.1

  • 1.8
  • 1.6

Retail 5.4 6.8 0.6 0.4 Flex/R&D 3.6 12.1

  • 0.8
  • 1.4

Warehouse 7.5 8.8

  • 1.4
  • 0.7

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 Q1-07 Q4-07 Q3-08 Q2-09 Q1-10 Q4-10 Q3-11 Q2-12 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16

NR Permits

Alameda Contra Costa

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Homes

8

California Home Prices, Q3-16 County Median Price YoY Growth (%) Monterey 517,400 13.7 San Luis Obispo 537,200 8.1 Inland Empire 306,400 8.0 San Diego 536,400 6.0 San Francisco 1,221,500 5.8 Orange County 696,200 3.7 South Bay 919,000 2.3 Santa Barbara 461,600

  • 4.1

Los Angeles 542,600 6.9 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16

ExisIng SFR Median Prices, Q1-05 to Q3-16

California

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Q1-95 Q2-97 Q3-99 Q4-01 Q1-04 Q2-06 Q3-08 Q4-10 Q1-13 Q2-15

ResidenIal Units

SF MF

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East Bay Housing

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100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16

Home Prices

Alameda Contra Costa 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16

SF Permits

Alameda Contra Costa

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Rental Market Trends

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 Q1-08 Q4-08 Q3-09 Q2-10 Q1-11 Q4-11 Q3-12 Q2-13 Q1-14 Q4-14 Q3-15 Q2-16 Vacancy Rate (%) Cost of Rent ($/mo}

East Bay Apartment Market

Cost of Rent Vacancy Rate Submarket Cost of Rent Vacancy Rate Q3-16 ($/mo.) YoY Growth (%) Q3-16 (%) YoY Change (p.p.) San Leandro/Hayward 1,644 8.3 1.6 0.0 San Ramon/Walnut Creek 1,774 6.1 3.3 0.4 East Contra Costa 1,541 5.8 2.3 0.0 Fremont/Newark/ Union City 1,845 5.4 2.6 0.7 West Contra Costa 1,906 4.6 2.9 0.6 North Alameda 1,939 4.0 5.6 0.8 East Alameda 1,889 2.6 3.3 1.2 Concord/MarInez 1,525 2.1 2.0 0.1

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Rent vs. Income

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Median Monthly Rent ($) 2015 2014 15-14 Chg % California 1,311 1,268 3.4% East Bay 1,525 1,409 8.2% San Jose 1,894 1,779 6.5% Sacramento 1,109 1,057 4.9% San Francisco 1,741 1,664 4.6% San Diego 1,427 1,373 3.9% Orange County 1,624 1,572 3.3% LA County 1,279 1,239 3.2% Inland Empire 1,166 1,159 0.6% Renter Median Income ($) 2015 2014 15-14 Chg % California 44,642 42,305 5.5% San Francisco 72,428 66,528 8.9% East Bay 55,440 51,435 7.8% San Jose 75,436 70,269 7.4% San Diego 49,741 46,750 6.4% LA County 41,666 39,678 5.0% Sacramento 38,746 37,704 2.8% Inland Empire 37,484 37,136 0.9% Orange County 53,440 52,973 0.9%

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Rent vs. Income

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Rent as Share of Income 2015 2014 2013 California 35.2% 36.0% 36.2% Inland Empire 37.3% 37.5% 37.1% LA County 36.8% 37.5% 38.1% Orange County 36.5% 35.6% 36.0% San Diego 34.4% 35.2% 35.6% Sacramento 34.3% 33.6% 35.1% East Bay 33.0% 32.9% 34.9% San Jose 30.1% 30.4% 32.0% San Francisco 28.8% 30.0% 30.5% Rent Burden (%) 2015 2014 Change California 55.7 56.8

  • 1.1

San Diego 56.7 56.7 0.0 Orange County 57.7 58.0

  • 0.3

Sacramento 54.2 55.1

  • 0.9

LA County 58.8 60.1

  • 1.3

East Bay 51.2 52.6

  • 1.5

San Jose 47.4 49.3

  • 1.9

Inland Empire 58.7 60.6

  • 1.9

San Francisco 39.4 42.5

  • 3.1
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City of Oakland Labor Market

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145,000 150,000 155,000 160,000 165,000 170,000 175,000 180,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Employment 2008 to 2015

Industry Employment (000s) Oakland Health Care 37.3 1.9 Prof, Sci, Tech 19.9 6.1 Hospitality 17.2 5.8 Transport 11.9 4.1 Retail Trade 11.1 2.2 Admin Support 10.6 3.9 Other Svcs. 8.7 4.7

  • Fin. Svcs Real Estate

7.4 2.1 NR/ConstrucIon 6.9 7.6 Manufacturing 6.7

  • 3.9

Wholesale Trade 6.1 2.6 EducaIon 5.8

  • 0.7

InformaIon 3.2 18.1 Government 26.1 1.6 Total 178.8 3.3

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City of Oakland Avg. Annual Wage

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50,000 52,000 54,000 56,000 58,000 60,000 62,000 64,000 66,000 68,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Avg. Wage 2008 to 2015

Industry

  • Avg. Wage

($000s) Oakland InformaIon 114.3 2.3 Prof, Sci, Tech, and Mgmt 109.0 4.3

  • Fin. Svcs. and Real Estate

90.1 11.8 Wholesale Trade 84.3 11.1 Manufacturing 77.8 8.3 NR/ConstrucIon 76.6 7.7 Transport/Warehouse/UIl 65.2 4.1 Health Care 60.6 4.6 EducaIon 46.3 8.7 Other Svcs. 43.2 6.9 Admin Support 38.7 4.9 Retail Trade 38.6 7.3 Leisure and Hospitality 35.6 9.2 Government 73.2 5.5 Total 66.0 6.3

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Employment by Establishment Type

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Private Employment by Establishment Type in the City of Oakland, 2015 Establishment Type Total Employment (000s) Growth Since 2011 Share of Employment (%) (000s) (%) Establishment Size Less than 15 Employees 39.7 7.9 25.0 26.0 15 to 24 Employees 13.3 1.8 15.4 8.7 25 to 49 Employees 18.6 2.6 16.6 12.2 50 to 150 Employees 31.5 2.7 9.5 20.6 More than 150 Employees 49.5 4.6 10.3 32.5 Establishment Average Wage Less than $25,000 38.7 8.8 29.3 25.4 $25,000 to $50,000 43.5 3.9 10.0 28.5 More than $50,000 70.5 7.0 11.0 46.1

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Tech in Oakland – On the Rise

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20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 175 195 215 235 255 Q1-08 Q3-08 Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15

Oakland Tech Establishments Q1-08 to Q3-15

Oakland Tech Establishments

  • Avg. Employees per Establishment
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Q1-08 Q4-08 Q3-09 Q2-10 Q1-11 Q4-11 Q3-12 Q2-13 Q1-14 Q4-14 Q3-15 YoY Growth (%) Employment (SA, Smoothed)

Oakland Tech Employment Q1-08 to Q4-15

Tech Employment YoY Growth

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Local Residents

40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 50,000 52,000 54,000 56,000 58,000 60,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City of Oakland Median Income ($) 2007 to 2015

Household Change by Income Category, 2015 Category Households 2015 Annual Change Total 161,104 4,380 Less than $25,000 38,203 303 $25,000 to $50,000 32,955 422 $50,000 to $100,000 42,640 1,748 More than $100,000 47,306 1,866

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Local Residents

14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City of Oakland Poverty Rate (%)

Household Change by Income Category, 2015 Category Households 2015 Annual Change Total 419,278 5,496 19 Years and Younger 94,289

  • 1,489

20 to 34 Years Old 108,996 7,016 35 to 54 Years Old 120,510 2,338 55 to 64 Years Old 46,353

  • 2,448

65 Years and Older 49,130 79

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Oakland Residential Real Estate

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$ Millions

ResidenIal Building Permit Values 2008 to 2016

New AlteraIons/AddiIons Value of Res. Permits 2016 ($Millions) Council District AlteraIons New District 1 31.5 84.1 District 2 17.6 2.5 District 3 32.0 527.8 District 4 20.6 36.5 District 5 6.5 5.2 District 6 8.2 36.6 District 7 6.0 3.0 City Total 122.4 695.8

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Oakland Non-Residential Construction

50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$ Millions

Non-ResidenIal Building Permit Values 2008 to 2016

New AlteraIons/AddiIons Value of Non-Res. Permits 2016 ($ Millions) Council District AlteraIons New District 1 9.7 9.4 District 2 10.4 16.0 District 3 141.8 4.0 District 4 14.6 0.0 District 5 2.9 15.5 District 6 1.3 0.0 District 7 5.9 0.6 City Total 186.6 45.5