T HE POLITICAL AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF MIGRATION IN H UNGARY Bulcsú Hunyadi Senior Analyst, Political Capital Institute hunyadi@politicalcapital.hu 1
The scale of migration affecting Hungary Jan-Feb 2014 2015 2016 2017 Number of registered asylum 42,777 177,135 29,432 969 seekers Number of illegal n.a. 413,043 19,069 304 border crossings 2
Timeline of arrival of refugees in 2015 3
The political environment • Anti-immigration rhetoric started as a ’pilot’ in Q4 2014 • Full speed after the Charlie Hebdo attack in January 2015 4
Anti-immigration campaign since 2015 • Continuous campaign of an unimaginable scale National consultation on immigration and terrorism (2015) 5
Impact on the society • Sentiments driven by government’s campaigns and rhetoric Source : Tárki 6
Impact on the society & political agenda • Government pins the issue to the top of its agenda Immigration Terrorism Source: Eurobarometer 7
Impact on the political language All elements of far-right rhetoric • Fearmongering • Word choice: ‘ refugees ’ ‘ illegal immigrants ’ • Securitisation : migrants = criminals & terrorists • Cultural/religious aspect : ‘ Christian Europe will be conquered by Muslim immigrants ’ • Eurosceptic element: ‘ It’s the EU’s fault ’ • Conspiracy elements: ‘ migration organised by George Soros ’ • Anti-establishment elements: PM Orbán & the people of Europe vs. European leaders 8
Political rationale • Tactic: Polarisation by presenting symbolic enemies Constant state of emergency Constant mobilisation Objectives: • Creating a new dichotomy, restructuring the political agenda • Left vs. Right ‘ Patriots ’ vs. ‘ Enemies of the nation ’ • Diverting attention from bad governance • Utilising anti-establishment sentiments • Discrediting & eliminating critical voices (=‘ enemies ’) • Securing domestic power by transforming the political landscape of the EU (‘ populist revolt ’) 9
T HANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! Bulcsú Hunyadi hunyadi@politicalcapital.hu www.politicalcapital.hu www.derexindex.eu 10
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