The Safe Food Imperative Towards Smarter Investment and Regulatory - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Safe Food Imperative

Towards Smarter Investment and Regulatory Delivery

STEVEN JAFFEE SECOND GLOBAL MEETING OF THE FAO/WHO INTERNATIONAL FOOD SAFETY AUTHORITIES NETWORK (INFOSAN) ABU DHABI, UAE; DECEMBER 9 -11, 2019

Analytical and Advocacy Aims

➢Synthesize evidence on socio-economic impacts of unsafe food ➢Strengthen case for increased policy attention & public resources ➢Provide guidance on strategy and ways to mainstream food safety ➢Differentiate priorities based status of food system transformation

Communicate all this to non-specialists!!

Main Messages

➢ Food safety is a core economic development issue but generally has not been recognized as such. When food safety has been on the development agenda this has primarily been in relation to trade. Today, the domestic agenda warrants increased attention. ➢ Domestic food safety has commonly featured major data and informational gaps, little policy coherence, and significant underinvestment. Concerted public action has normally reactive-- crisis management is more common than risk management. ➢ The gap between food safety capacity and actual need is especially large for today’s rapidly urbanizing lower middle income countries. For these countries, a ‘business as usual’ approach will result in very high public health and economic costs in the future. ➢ Many of these costs are avoidable. Through preventive public policy measures, smarter investment, increased information- and experience-sharing, and a paradigm shift in food safety governance and stakeholder engagement.

Starting Point

Complex Subject + Widely Varying Circumstances + Little Data in the Public Domain

• Country-specific data on food safety status/outcomes?
• Structured information/comparative data on food safety capacities?
• Hard evidence on the efficacy of food safety investments?

Sources and Methods

SOURCES

➢Data

➢Public: WHO/FERG; OIE; UN COMTRADE; National Governments ➢Private: GlobalGAP; IFOAM; Industry Associations

➢Extensive Literature Review:

Academic and Industry Surveys; Official Country Studies; Project Documents

➢Commissioned Expert Papers & Case Studies

METHODS

➢Simple conceptual framework relating food safety with economic development ➢Combine and analyze data for countries, regions, & country income groups ➢Blend science & economics ➢For messaging, combine broad principles with differentiated calls to action and recommendations

Concepts

TRADITIONAL IMAGE OF FOOD SAFETY FOOD SAFETY IS CRITICAL TO ACHIEVING THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS Food safety is foundational to: Food safety is integral to:

7

Food safety is a mainstream economic development issue

When food safety has been on the development agenda it has largely been in relation to trade and market access

Prominent Concerns

• Standards as non-tariff barriers?
• Private standards = small farmer exclusion?
• Standards compliance costs
• Harmonization & equivalence

Visible trade impacts Invisible or unmeasured domestic impacts

Trade Domestic

Well organized stakeholders Non-organized consumers Clear public SPS roles Fragmented food control mandates Costs incurred by lead firms & farmers FBD burden falls heavily on the poor

The economic case for food safety investment has several dimensions

Economic Case

International Competitiveness Cost Avoidance Food Market Performance

Impacts of improved food safety capacity are complex and wide-ranging

Many of these impacts are underestimated

• r unnoticed

The FOOD SAFETY LIFECYCLE

The economic costs of unsafe are systematically linked to processes of economic development and food system transformation

Traditional Transitioning Modernizing Post-Modern

Level of Economic Development Food Safety Economic Burden

Reflects the relationship or gap between food safety needs and actual capabilities and incentives

Low diet diversity Weak incentives Weak capacity Rapid dietary diversity Changing risks Lagging capacity and incentives Formal sector responds to consumer demands Growing public capacity Stronger incentives Mature demand Risks well-managed Periodic failures lead to rapid response

Evidence

Public Health Imperative: Global burden similar to AIDS/HIV, TB, Malaria

➢600 million illnesses/year (45% Asia; 15% Africa) ➢420,000 deaths/year (54% Asia; 33% Africa) ➢33 million DALYs (55% Asia; 30% Africa) ➢New analysis on heavy metals: 9 million DALYs

Source: Havelaar et al. 2015

➢9% of global population ➢38% of illnesses ➢30% of premature deaths ➢Foodborne infections linked to stunting ➢Most FBD: microbial pathogens ➢Animal products and fruits/vegs ➢Many hazards not quantified

Children < 5 disproportionately affected

Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group

FBD DALYs Attributable to Animal Source Foods Share of DALYs Proportion of Countries <30% 19% 30 to 50% 49% >50% 32%

Based on Li et al (2019)

Country-specific data suggest why food safety is (is not) given high priority in public health policy and spending

Disability Adjusted Life Years Lost Per 100,000 People China Sri Lanka Vietnam Nigeria

• S. Africa

Ethiopia Tuberculosis

(2016)

148 205 414 2769 1694 1150 HIV/AIDS

(2016)

67 28 440 5131 11928 1171 Malaria (2016) 1 1 1 4964 12 357 Foodborne Illness (2010) 272 685 390 1322 797 967

Based on: WHO Global Burden of Disease Statistics; FERG

Commercial Imperative:

Demographic and Dietary Change and the New Middle Class

Illustration from Asia CHANGING FOOD EXPENDITURE PATTERNS TOWARDS ANIMAL PRODUCTS, PROCESSED FOODS AND OUT-OF-HOME EATING

ASIA WILL ACCOUNT FOR 90% OF THE GROWTH OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS TO 2030—2.2 BILLION MORE CONSUMERS WITH DISPOSABLE INCOME

Composition of per capita food expenditures, by commodity group in urban Indonesia

Commercial Imperative:

Maintaining Trade Momentum Through Better Compliance

STEADY EXPANSION IN EMERGING ASIA’S HIGH VALUE FOOD EXPORTS DESPITE DISPROPORTIONALLY HIGH CONSIGNMENT INTERCEPTIONS IN OECD MARKETS

Economic costs of unsafe food take many forms with both short & long-term dimensions

Unsafe food results in an estimated $110 billion in productivity losses or costs of treating illness in low and middle income countries, each year

Cost estimates for 2016 (US$ billion) Productivity loss 95 Illness treatment 15 Trade loss or cost 5

‘Productivity Loss’ =

Foodborne Disease DALYs x Per Capita GNI

Based on WHO/FERG & WDI Indicators Database

Illness treatment = US$27 x # of Estimated foodborne illnesses Trade loss or costs = 2% of developing country high value food exports

Developing Asia and Africa account for most of this estimated productivity loss and these costs are also higher in relative terms

PRODUCTIVITY LOSS AS A % OF TOTAL FOOD EXPENDITURES (2010)

Revisiting the Iceberg for sub-Saharan Africa

Most development assistance for food safety in SSA focuses on trade, yet the ratio between domestic and trade-related food safety costs may be 50 to 1

Domestic Costs of Unsafe Food ($ Billion)

Productivity Loss 16.7 Cost of Treatment 2.5 Total 19.2

Trade Related Costs ($ Million)

Rejections 78 Deterred 234 Fixed Compliance Cost 155 Total 467

Traditional Transitioning Modernizing Post-Modern

Level of Economic Development Food Safety Economic Burden

NEPAL VIETNAM SRI LANKA INDONESIA INDIA THAILAND CHINA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SOUTH KOREA AUSTRALIA SINGAPORE JAPAN

Can Countries Avoid the Upward Trajectory of Costs?

Smarter investment & better regulatory delivery can lead Asia’s lower middle income countries to avoid $ billions in productivity losses, and (public health and commercial) costs Or leapfrog to higher standards?

BANGLADESH CAMBODIA PAKISTAN

What is ‘business as usual’ in most low and middle-income countries?

Investments and Institutions: Fragmented and Uncoordinated Timing: Reactive Rather Than Preventive Regulatory Delivery: Emphasis on Detecting Non-compliance, Not Leveraging Private Action

UNDERINVESTMENT: Many low and lower middle-income countries have only islands

• f food safety capacity in government and the private sector.

The situation is much better for upper middle-income countries

Proportion of countries with adequate public sector Capacities related to animal product food safety

Source: Data from 93 OIE PVS Assessments

Skewed distribution

• f private capacities

Capacity Matters &Pays Dividends: A One Health Example

The burden of foodborne disease from animal-source foods is closely connected with related veterinary service capacities in SSA

Sources: ASF burden reported in Li et al (2019); Capacity index reported in Jaffee et al (2019)

“You Get What You Pay For”

African countries with ‘adequate’ funding of veterinary services are all clustered toward the bottom end of the burden of foodborne disease from animal-source food

NOTE: Countries with inadequate funding in red (rating = 1) and in orange (rating = 2); countries with adequate funding in green (rating =3 or 4).

Inadequate Spending is Costly!

Moving Forward

Many countries should adjust the paradigm of food safety governance towards a shared responsibility model

TOP DOWN FOOD SAFETY CONTROL SHARED RESPONSIBILITY

Government Business Consumers

27

Balance hardware / software Foundational knowledge & human resources Monitor Impact Capture synergies Clear purpose & evidence-based

Governments need to invest more and more smartly public in domestic food safety

28

Research Professional training Consumer awareness Market upgrading and management Safe production standards Safe production technologies Laboratory services Monitoring industry compliance

…while leveraging private investment and initiative

Knowledge Infrastructure and practices Conformity assurance

29

(epidemiology, food science, FS mgt)

…and reforming approaches to regulatory delivery

AUTHORITARIAN APPROACH APPLYING THE POWER TO PUNISH FOR NON- COMPLIANCE RISK-BASED APPROACH MOTIVATING AND ENABLING COMPLIANCE

30

Target public spending

• Calibrate to costs and benefits
• Preventive rather than reactive
• Balanced (hardware/software)

Unify food strategies

• Evidence-based
• Support compliance
• Leverage private investment
• Empower consumers

Organize collective action

• Build awareness and facilitate action
• Good practices (ag, manufacturing)
• Advocate for good policy and

regulatory delivery

Build evidence

• Fund scientific research
• Train professionals
• Carry out risk assessments
• Evaluate interventions
• Assess and monitor national food

safety commitment

Focus more on food safety for domestic health

• Conduct economic analysis and M&E
• Facilitate resource priority processes
• Foster South-South learning
• Benchmark food safety systems

Ministries of Finance National Food Safety Agencies or Technical Ministries Food Industry and Agricultural Associations Academic and Research Institutions Development and International Technical Agencies

Calls to Action

by stakeholder group

Calibrating actions and priorities to country circumstances

Traditional Transitioning Modernizing

Strategy and Policy Food and nutritional security Agro-food transformation and diversification Managing public health costs Basic legislative framework Multisectoral food safety strategy Regulatory convergence with int’l best practice Risk Assessment Qualitative risk rankings Total dietary exposure studies Research on emerging FBD and novel technologies Value chain studies to identify ‘hotspots’ Pilot FBD surveillance & reporting Systematic collection, evaluation and use of surveillance data Risk Management Improve basic hygienic conditions in markets Develop system for early warning and contingency plans Strengthen national food recall and traceability systems Increase awareness and application of basic GAP Mainstream adoption of GAP and GMP Apply advanced technologies in regulatory delivery

To mainstream food safety in the development agenda we need to think holistically about what constitutes “investment in safer food” and better measure impacts

Knowledge & Innovation Clean Water & Sanitation Market & Logistical Infrastructure Application of GAP, GAHP, GMP Food Control System Consumer Education & Engagement Food Trade Facilitation Quality Assurance

Thank You

www.Worldbank.org/safefoodimperative

The Safe Food Imperative: Accelerating Progress in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

• S. Jaffee, S. Henson, L. Unnevehr, Delia Grace and Emilie Cassou

(With multiple collaborators, including Arie Havelaar, Vivian Hoffmann, Donald Macrae, Clare Narrod, Jairo Romero, Shashi Sareen, Mateo Ambrosio, Franck Berthe, and Anissa Collishaw)