The Role of ICT in Driving a Sustainable Future GeSI SMARTer 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Role of ICT in Driving a Sustainable Future

GeSI SMARTer 2020

• Dr. Luis Neves

Group Climate Change and Sustainability Officer Deutsche Telekom Chairman, Global e-Sustainability Initiative

GeSI members and partners

GeSI vision

3

A sustainable world through responsible, ICT- enabled transformation.

Human activity combined with limited emissions abatement has pushed CO2 emissions to nearly 32,000 Mt in 2009

Developing economy growth rises 1900 1800 30,000 20,000 10,000 2000 1740 1760 1780 1820 1840 1860 1880 1920 1940 1960 1980 2020 Global CO2 emissions (Gt) Post-WWII economic boom Industrial revolution begins

GHG emissions lead to dramatic and widespread temperature changes – there are also other destabilizing effects

Rainforest dieback Acidification

• f oceans

Species extinction Ice sheet melting Temperature changes Weather pattern shifts

We have re-evaluated ICT’s potential to enable a low-carbon economy in 2020

SMARTer 2020 follows up the SMART 2020 study, which first evaluated ICT’s potential to enable a low-carbon economy in 2020

SMART2020 SMARTer 2020 Today In 2008

The abatement potential of ICT is seven times the size of the ICT sector’s own carbon footprint

Key changes

Increase in potential due to:

• Availability of new abatement

solutions

• Updates to previous estimations

due to recent trends and technological innovations

• Increase in total global GHG

emissions Lower estimate due to:

• Emergence of smart devices which

have lower footprint than PCs

• More precise estimates of wireless

networks emissions available

• Global economic slowdown also a

factor

7.8

GtCO2e

Abatement potential in 2020 ICT industry's emissions in 2020

1.4

GtCO2e

2.6% of global emissions1

9.1

GtCO2e

1.3

GtCO2e

SMART2020 study SMARTer 2020 5.5x 7.2x

2.3% of global emissions1

• 1. On a base of 55 Gt CO2e GHG emissions (IEA)

The potential for information technology to reduce global carbon emissions has been under-estimated until now

Total abatement potential of ICT-enabled solutions in 2020 % of global GHG emissions in 2020

9.1 GtCO2e 16.5%

Emissions savings could yield USD1.9 trillion in gross energy and fuel savings, and 29.5 million jobs would be created

GHG emission reductions Number of barrels of oil with equivalent emissions1 At today's crude oil price, value of the oil that would be saved2 Equivalent number of jobs if the money was used in

• ther sectors3

9.1 Gt (16.5% of total) 21.6B barrels $1.9T 29.5M jobs

Barrel of oil emits 0.43 metric tons of CO2

1

$87.99 per barrel of crude oil as of Nov 6, 20122 Using the same ratio of economic value to jobs created as in SMART2020 report As estimated in the report

Though estimates, these calculation give a sense of the magnitude of the economic benefits

• 1. Source: EPA http://www.epa.gov/greenpower/pubs/calcmeth.htm#oil 2. Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/ )

9.1 gigatons of GHG emissions amounts to USD1.9 trillion in gross energy and fuel savings

Savings of 21.6 billion barrels of oil1

x 1,000,000

Equivalent to GDP of the Russian economy2

• 1. Number of barrels of oil with equivalent emissions assuming Barrel of oil emits 0.43 metric tons of CO2 2. At today's crude oil price, value of the oil that would be saved ($87.99 per barrel of

crude oil as of Nov 6, 2012)

Transportation Buildings Manufacturing Power Service & Consumer Agriculture & Land-Use

The new research study identifies GHG abatement potential from ICT-enabled solutions ranging across six sectors

Example 1: Smart farming

The new research study identifies GHG abatement potential from ICT-enabled solutions ranging across six sectors

Example 2: Automation of industrial processes

Transportation Buildings Manufacturing Power Service & Consumer Agriculture & Land-Use

The new research study identifies GHG abatement potential from ICT-enabled solutions ranging across six sectors

Example 3: Integration of renewables

Transportation Buildings Manufacturing Power Service & Consumer Agriculture & Land-Use

Emission reductions come from virtualization initiatives such as cloud computing, but also through efficiency gains

8 6

Abatement potential (GtCO2e)

10 4 2

Total

9.1

Process, activity, and functional

• ptimization

4.7

System integration

0.5

Digitalization & dematerialization

1.5

Data collection & communication

2.4

Abatement potential by change lever Major drivers

1.Of global GHG emissions in 2020 Source: BCG analysis 0101010 1001000

• Digital. &

dematerial. Data coll. & Comm. System integration Optimization

• Establishment of technologies

that substitute or eliminate the need for a carbon- intensive product

• Not many new technological

innovations in change lever

• Trends in increased data

complexity require real time analysis and communication

• Social media and networking

are also a major driver

• Driven by solutions that

manage the use of resources (e.g. building management system) and integrate less- carbon intensive processes (e.g. renewables)

• Result of intelligent

simulation, automation, redesign, or control

• Improved processing power

driving growth of change lever

Transportation Service and consumer Agriculture and land use Manufacturing Buildings Power

35 ICT-enabled abatement solutions identified in the study

Abatement potential modeled individually for each sub-lever

0101010 1001000

Change levers Sources of emissions by economic end-use sectors1 Data collection &

communication

Digitalization and dematerialization Process, activity and functional

• ptimization

System integration

Power-load balancing Power grid

• ptimization

Integration of renewables Virtual power plant Integration of

• ff-grid storage

Demand management Time-of-day pricing Optimization of truck route planning Optimization of logistics network Integration of EVs, bio-fuels Intelligent traffic management Fleet management & telematics Eco-driving Real-time traffic alerts Apps for intermodal Asset sharing Video-conferencing Telecommuting Optimization of variable speed motors Automation of industrial processes Minimization of packaging Building design Voltage optimization Reduction in inventory Smart water Disaster management Asset sharing / crowd sourcing E-commerce E-paper Online media Smart farming Integration of renewables Livestock management Smart water Building design Voltage optimization Integration of renewables Building management system

Total abatement in GtCO2e: (% of all sector emissions1)

1.7 (14%) 2.0 (25%) 1.5 (9%) 0.7 (12%) 1.6 (13%) 1.6 (N/A2)

• 1. Based on 2008 data – EDGAR; 2. EDGAR data does not split building out as a separate sector

= calculated abatement potential by sub-lever

ICT emissions growth expected to slow down from 6% to ~4%

ICT emissions 2.3% of global emissions by 2020

• 1. Data for 2010 2. Previous study used an incorrect number for the wireless network emissions (50 vs. 24kWh/yr) and therefore ended up with higher total emissions

Source: Gartner; Forrester ; U.S. Census Bureau; IEA; Greentouch; CEET; CDP; Ovum; GSMA; CERN; Cisco; CEET; SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age; academic publications; industry experts; academic experts; manufacturer websites; GeSI Smart2020 Refresh team members; BCG analysis

Global ICT emissions (GtCO2e)

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2020 1.27 2011 0.91 End-user devices 2002 0.53 Data centers Voice and Data Networks +6.1% +3.8% CAGR 2002-2011 CAGR 2011-2020 8.6% 7.1% 4.7% 4.6% 6.1% 2.3% % global GHG emissions 1.3% 1.9% 2.3%

Barriers to be addressed at national level Global policies

Establish carbon market to monetize emissions Develop financial aid programs for developing countries Set and enforce global cascading targets for GHG emission reduction Create "Center of Excellence" Ensure fair IP licensing

• f abatement technology

Recognize ICT solutions as part of a global strategy to reduce emissions

Deployment: Technology require full deployment to be effective Economics: High costs of smart gird and renewable technologies Energy Transportation Manufacturing Service and consumer Agriculture and land use Buildings Behavior and habits: Must change strong habits Infrastructure: Strong public transit must be in place to serve as a viable option Slow adoption: Often little motivation for action because of low energy prices M&E: Difficult to quantify savings Education: Few consumers realize or understand full benefits Behavior: Need to ensure private adoption without policy Economics: Need for stronger business case Financing: High upfront costs, especially for small farmers Landlord- tenant: Need to better align incentives and simplifying building code Financing: High upfront CAPEX costs

Individual behaviors, attitudes, and habits

Policies at the national level have the most significant potential to drive sub-lever adoption

All countries have unique circumstances that impact their ability to abate GHGs Policies at the national level are the most effective drivers of change in all countries Those differences drive which end-use sectors and which sub-levers deserve most attention

Country deep-dives provide context to demonstrate how national and local policies can yield higher abatement

Brazil Canada U.K. China U.S. Germany India

8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1990 2000 2008 29 37 2,461 43 28 3,405 7,032 Others Service & building Manufacturing Transport Power 48 31

Source: World Bank; Wood Mackenzie; Xinhua Agency; China‘s 12th Five Year Plan; BCG analysis

+3.3% +9.5%

China’s CO2e emissions (1990-2008)

Opportunities in China

1% 20% 39% 2% Demand management (4 MtCO2e) Time of day pricing (79 MtCO2e) Integration of renewables (153 MtCO2e) Power grid optimisation (143 MtCO2e) Power load balancing (9 MtCO2e) 37%

Power sector opportunities (390Mt CO2e)

68% Automation of industrial processes (165 MtCO2e) Optimisation of variable speed motor systems (347 MtCO2e) 32%

Manufacturing sector opportunities (512Mt CO2e)

Challenges Solutions

Challenges and Solutions

1,500 1,000 500 1990 2000 2010 36% 36% 1,246 1,039 937 Agriculture Service & consumer Manufacturing Transport Power

Source: World Bank; Wood Mackenzie; Xinhua Agency; China‘s 12th Five Year Plan; BCG analysis

• 1.8%
• 1.0%

Germany’s CO2e emissions (1990-2010)

Opportunities in Germany

34% 26%

1% 8% 72% 4% Demand management (0.3 MtCO2e) Time of day pricing (3.2 MtCO2e) Integration of renewables (28.8 MtCO2e) Power grid optimisation (5.71 MtCO2e) Virtual power plant (1.7 MtCO2e) 14%

Power sector opportunities (40Mt CO2e)

82% Automation of industrial processes (6 MtCO2e) Optimisation of variable speed motor systems (27 MtCO2e) 18%

Manufacturing sector opportunities (33Mt CO2e)

• Ineffective

emissions targets (industrial emissions budget is too high)

• Economics is still

not favourable in some niche areas e.g. old paper mills

• Slow adoption due

to long change/upgrade cycles in some industries

Challenges and solutions

Solutions

Source: World Bank; Wood Mackenzie; Xinhua Agency; China‘s 12th Five Year Plan; BCG analysis

Brazil’s CO2e emissions (1990-2008)

Opportunities in Brazil

1,500 1,000 500 1990 2000 2008 1,288 Transport Energy Livestock Waste Land use

• 1.8%
• 1.0%

Agriculture

1% 19% 52% 8% Smart water (0.9 MtCO2e) Soil & weather management (17 MtCO2e) Deforestation prevention (46.8 MtCO2e) Livestock management (18 MtCO2e) Smart farming (7.2 MtCO2e) 20%

Agriculture & land use opportunities (90Mt CO2e)

Transportation sector opportunities (38 Mt CO2e) 38 Mt CO2e

Challenges Solutions

Challenges and solutions

Next steps for SMARter2020

Please visit www.gesi.org/SMARTer2020 for the full text version of SMARTer 2020

Luis Neves Chairman Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSI) c/o Scotland House Rond Point Schuman 6 1040 Brussels Belgium Email: luis.neves@gesi.org www.gesi.org Thank you - Muchas Gracias