The Relationship Between Urbanisation and Development in the BRICS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
the relationship between urbanisation and development in
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

The Relationship Between Urbanisation and Development in the BRICS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 24, 2023 279 likes •539 views

The Relationship Between Urbanisation and Development in the BRICS Prof Ivan Turok Economic Performance and Development HSRC HSRC Seminar, August 28 th 2013 Context Continuing large-scale urbanisation in South 1. Deep ambivalence in many

slide-1
SLIDE 1

The Relationship Between Urbanisation and Development in the BRICS

Prof Ivan Turok

Economic Performance and Development HSRC

HSRC Seminar, August 28th 2013

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Context

1.

Continuing large-scale urbanisation in South

2.

Deep ambivalence in many countries

3.

Partly ‘cos seen as a demographic issue

4.

Others see it mainly as social/rights/justice

5.

Need to link it to (economic) development

6.

Different elsewhere – eg China

7.

Significance of the BRICS: not just an acronym

  • 42% of world population; 26% of global production; 47% of

world output growth in last decade. Dramatic pol. transitions.

  • Symbolic & political importance – new feature of global

integration, new development paradigm?

  • Any lessons for South Africa?

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Outline

1.

Urbanisation and development in theory

2.

The context of the BRICS

3.

China, India, Brazil, Russia, SA

4.

Some lessons

3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

“Countries that are highly urbanised tend to have higher incomes, more stable economies, stronger institutions and are better able to withstand the volatility of the global economy” (UN, 2007) “The city is one of the highest pinnacles of human creation … cities have the power to innovate, generate wealth, enhance quality of life and accommodate more people within a smaller carbon footprint” (UN-Habitat, 2012)

The new conventional wisdom

slide-5
SLIDE 5

The possible relationship between urbanisation and development

  • 1. Coincidental
  • 2. Urbanisation an effect of industrialisation
  • 3. Urbanisation contributes to development
  • 1. Efficient production by concentrating resources
  • 2. Stronger consumption
  • 3. Entrepreneurial dynamism
  • 4. Creativity and innovation
  • 5. Infrastructure and services
slide-6
SLIDE 6

The rediscovery of cities: theory

6

Productivity and innovation Jobs and incomes

Population = labour & consumers

Agglomeration advantages: size,

density, diversity …

Industrial transition Globalisation Green transition Technology, knowledge

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Possible negative externalities

7

Lower productivity Stagnation, lower taxes

Population =

  • vercrowding,

social tensions

Agglomeration disadvantages:

congestion, high costs

Globalisation: Competition, immigration Climate change: Risk of disasters

slide-8
SLIDE 8

The context of the BRICS, 1985-2011

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Asia 1985-2011

slide-10
SLIDE 10

South America 1985-2011

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Africa 1985-2011

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Life expectancy, 1985-2011

Source: World Development Indicators

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Percentage Urbanisation Life Expectancy

Vietnam Indonesia China Fiji Philippines Republic of Korea Thailand Malaysia

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 60 65 70 75 80 Percentage Urbanisation Life Expectancy

Peru Brazil Ecuador Paraguay Chile Uruguay Argentina Venezuela Mexico Colombia Panama Jamaica

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 40 45 50 55 60 65 Percentage Urbanisation Life Expectancy

Ghana South Africa Guinea

  • Bissau

Cameroon Nigeria Liberia Madagascar Kenya Ethiopia Malawi Uganda Zimbabwe

slide-13
SLIDE 13

China

1.

Anti-urbanisation until 1980s, pro-rural

2.

Remarkable industrial transition - state-driven

3.

Explosive growth & poverty reduction

4.

Shift from rural industrialisation to export-led growth based on coastal cities

5.

Rural-urban migration depressed labour costs

6.

Local experimentation & incentives via land

7.

Financed major infrastructure & building progs

8.

Devolution to municipalities and mergers

13

slide-14
SLIDE 14

China (2)

1.

Speculation, corruption, illegal construction, land grabs, fast-track procedures

2.

Residence permits (hukou) discriminate against rural migrants – inferior housing and services, divisive, insecurity

3.

Environmental degradation, pollution, inefficient use of resources

4.

Regional divisions

5.

Rebalancing, consumer-spending …?

14

slide-15
SLIDE 15

India

1.

Colonial legacy of poorly integrated country, backward economy, inefficient bureaucracy

2.

Segregated cities for the few, slum clearance

3.

Post-1947 independence state controls and investment in industry and infrastructure

4.

1991 liberalisation reforms – urban economic growth, new middle class, IT service industries

5.

Global city ideas vs other cities

6.

Amenities, segregation, exclusion

7.

Decentralisation favours urban elites

8.

Massive rural poverty

15

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Brazil

1.

Colonial legacy of poorly integrated country

2.

State-sponsored industrialisation (import- substitution) from 1930s caused urbanisation

3.

Self-reinforcing dynamic gathered pace

4.

State investment in transport, communications and industrialisation bolsters urbanisation

5.

Anti-urban policies from 1960s – restrictions

6.

Makeshift settlements in hazardous locations

7.

Late 1980s new urban policy, democracy, decentralisation, innovation

8.

Practical progress complicated and slow

16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Russia

1.

Large-scale state-driven industrialisation & urbanisation based on heavy industries - 1920s

2.

Reinforced by collectivisation of agriculture

3.

Specialisation: single industry cities for military- industrial complex and basic consumer goods

4.

Centralised planning dispersed jobs and popn

5.

Disintegration of Soviet Union in 1990 exposed cities and industries to market forces

6.

Losers – industrial cities in N and E

7.

Winners – Moscow and some others in W & S

17

slide-18
SLIDE 18

South Africa

1.

Mining and industrialisation drove urbanisation from late 19th century

2.

Based on cheap labour, circular migration, compounds, distorted urban form

3.

Post-was anti-urbanisation and oppressive controls, segregation, exclusion, removals

4.

Narrow ideology vs economic imperative

5.

1980s collapse and crisis, urbanisation rebound

6.

Physical and psychological legacy

7.

Ambivalence towards urbanisation, complicated transformation

18

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Trends in employment

19

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Percentage Year Total Metros Total Secondary Cities Rest of South Africa

Source: IHS Global Insight

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Employment growth 1996-2012

20 Source: IHS Global Insight

74.9% 10.6% 14.5% Total Metros Total Secondary Cities Rest of South Africa

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Better alignment: population versus jobs growth (2001-2011)

slide-22
SLIDE 22

South Africa’s experience

New policy initiatives:

  • National Development Plan
  • Integrated Urban Development Framework
  • City Support Programme
  • National Upgrading Support Programme
slide-23
SLIDE 23

Lessons

  • 1. Industrialisation powerful driver of urbanisation
  • 2. Urbanisation can help fuel the process
  • 3. More effective with productive, healthy, stable

workforce and active consumers

  • 4. Other mechanisms (enterprise, innovation) are

slower and weaker

  • 5. Key role for access to land, infrastructure,

efficient urban forms, pro-active planning of the built environment, reinvestment from growth

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Thank you!

24