March 2018
The Path to ~230 MMcf/d Forward Looking Statements This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Path to ~230 MMcf/d Forward Looking Statements This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
March 2018 The Path to ~230 MMcf/d Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, included herein, Caribbean Sea including, without
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Forward Looking Statements
2 This presentation may include certain forward looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, included herein, including, without limitation, statements regarding future plans and
- bjectives of Canacol Energy Ltd. (“Canacol” or the “Corporation”), are
forward-looking statements that involve various risks, assumptions, estimates, and uncertainties. These statements reflect the current internal projections, expectations or beliefs of Canacol and are based on information currently available to the Corporation. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. All of the forward looking statements contained in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements and the risk factors described above. Furthermore, all such statements are made as of the date this presentation is given and Canacol assumes no obligation to update or revise these statements. Barrels of Oil Equivalent Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated using the conversion factor of 5.7 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) of natural gas being equivalent to one barrel of oil. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 5.7 Mcf:1 bbl (barrel) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Production and Reserves Production represents net before royalty. Reserves represent 2P reserves and before tax NPV-10 as of December 31, 2016 USD All dollar amounts are shown in US dollars, unless indicated otherwise
140 280 420 560 Km
Bogota
Natural Gas
19 blocks / 2.1 MM net acres
Caribbean Sea Colombia
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The Leader In Natural Gas Production Growth
+48% CAGR in gas production
MMcf/d
Guidance 70 85 ~230 '16 '17e '18e '19e 114 - 129
(1) Based on current gas contracts, net of transportation costs (2) Includes in-the-money options based on CDN $4.29 / share price (3) Converted from CDN → USD exchange rate (0.79) as of 2/21/18 (4) As of 9/30/17
- 2018 guidance
- Capital
$80 MM
- Gas
114 – 129 MMcf/d
- Oil
1,700 boepd
- % gas
>90%
- Avg. gas pricing
$4.75/MMbtu(1)
- 2019
- New Promigas pipeline
+100 MMcf/d USD in MM, except CDN $/share TSX $/share (2/21/18) CDN $4.29 Fully diluted shares outstanding(2) 178 Market capitalization(3) $ 602 Net debt(4) $ 243 Enterprise value $ 845 Insider ownership 22%
A History Of Discovery
+314 BCF in 2P reserves over the trailing 4-yrs.
In USD Pro forma for the sale of Canacol’s assets in Ecuador as of Dec ‘17 (1) The 2017 acquisition of SSJN-7 exploration asset from Pacific Exploration & Production is not pictured (2) Gaffney, Cline & Associates (“GCA”) resource report, effective Dec ’16 (3) Expected Monetary Value discounted at 10%, GCA Dec ‘16
In MMboe(1)
- il gas
17 20 65 72 7 8 11 14 14 19 9 8
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
80
74
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3 gas acquisitions(1) 2 oil acquisitions
- Highly disciplined exploration growth
- Evaluated over 150 transactions
- Selected 3 gas acquisitions
Long-lived reserve base Acquired gas reserves ('12-'14) 96 BCF Canacol’s 2p reserve adds 314 BCF 410 BCF Gas exploration success 10/12 wells (83%) Producing wells 17 Large resource upside Net acres 1.1 MM Blocks 5 Gross mean unrisked resources(2) > 2 TCF BT EMV-10(3) US $789 MM Prospects / leads 44
+51% CAGR in 2P reserves
Canacol Gas vs. North America Gas
$1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6
Mar '14 Jun '14 Sep '14 Dec '14 Mar '15 Jun '15 Sep '15 Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 Sep '17 Dec '17
$4.96(1)
Selling premium-price gas in a stable price environment
Quarterly average USD sale price per MMbtu $2.82
(1)For the 3 months ended 9/30/2017
Higher netback / productivity = competitive edge
Canacol gas vs. top 8 most economic conventional gas plays in N.A. 2018e USD operating netback Pre-tax USD $/MMbtu Canacol 2018E pricing USD $4.75/MMbtu US/Canada 2018E pricing USD $2.75/MMbtu $1.95 $3.66 $2.38 $2.08 $1.79 $1.49 $1.49 $1.49 $1.34 $1.19
$- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00
NE Penn (US) Kakwa-Nest (CA) Sunrise/Sunset (CA) SW Penn super rich (US) Septimus (CA) SW Penn rich (US) Dawson (CA) Susquehanna (US) Canacol Payout Canacol 8-mo. Top 8 avg. 25-mo.
Source: Scotiabank
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Natural Gas Comparison
Canacol vs. North America
Special gas economics
(1) Canacol’s ‘18e projected realized gas contracts, net of transportation costs (2) Barclays N.A. E&P research NYMEX spot 2018 estimate (3) Barclays N.A. E&P research AECO 30+ day spot as of 1/29/18. Conversion CDN→USD as of 1/29/18. (4) Scotiabank 2018E operating netback (5) Barclays N.A. E&P research representing 25+ pure-play, intermediate size natural gas companies in N.A. (6) Canacol’s average for the trailing 2-yr. period (7) Canacol’s average D&A cost for ‘18e exploration program
2018 Plan
Exploration & Development, $33 Facilities & equipment, $17 Seismic, workover &
- ther, $30
$80 MM capital budget for 2018
US $ in MM
- 1. Ensure gas productive capacity exceeds
230 MMcf/d by Dec 2018
- ‘17e guidance
85 MMcf/d
- ‘18e guidance
114-129 MMcf/d
- 2. Execute 7-well program
- Program
4 exploration & appraisal 3 development
- Avg. F&D cost
$0.44 / MCF(1)
- ‘18e avg. sales price
$4.75 / MCF(2)
- 3. Divest or spin out legacy conventional oil assets
- Creating a pure-play, clean natural gas-focused
Colombian E&P company
(1) Average over the trailing 2-yr. period (2) Based on current gas contracts, net f transportation costs
Gas overweight: 97% of production and capital
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Build Capacity To Exceed 230 MMcf/d
- Accelerated drilling program
- 2 rigs
- 4 exploration & appraisal wells
- 3 development
- Facilities
- Gas gathering system debottlenecking
- Gas plant expansion from 200 → 300 MMcf/d
- Key objectives
- Achieve 230 MMcf/d of productive capacity
by mid-year 2018
- Add new reserves to plan for future pipeline
projects
Execute 7-well program and upgrade facilities
2018 Block 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
DRILLING Exploration Gaiteros-1 VIM-5 Breva-1 VIM-21 Borojo-1 Esperanza Appraisal/development Pandereta-3 VIM-5 Chirimia-1 VIM-5 2 more well (TBD) FACILITIES Clarinete sub-station VIM-5 Water treatment system Esperanza Betania sub-station Esperanza
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2015 – 2016 Promigas-funded pipeline
(1) ANH statistics
Canacol’s Success Required Access To New Customers
Cartagena Caribbean Sea Jobo Station
+65 MMcf/d N
(1) ANH statistics 10 km Canacol gas blocks 190 km Promigas pipeline Existing gas pipelines
4 blocks 785k acres 20 MMcf/d S
Cerro Matos0
- ’14 → ’16: Canacol discovered more gas than all
Colombian explorers combined(1)
- Acquired 2P gas reserves ('12-'14) 96 BCF
- Canacol’s 2P reserve adds
+314 BCF
- ’15 → ’16: Promigas funded and constructed a 190
km pipeline from Canacol’s success to Cartagena
- Replaced declining supply from Chevron fields
- ’15 → ’16: This new infrastructure enabled Canacol
to increase production from 20 → 85 MMcf/d
- +65 MMcf/d north to Cartagena
- Existing 20 MMcf/d south to Cerro Matosa
Barranquilla Mature Chevron fields ~333 MMcf/d
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2017 – 2018: new and expand infrastructure
(1) ANH statistics
Canacol’s Growth Requires Infrastructure Expansion
On schedule to deliver +100 MMcf/d in Dec ‘18
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Sincelejo
1
Filadelphia Cartagena Barranquilla Jobo Station Bremen
Added to Canacol’s winning gas portfolio over time
2012 85k acres 2014 Today 1.1MM acres 1
- In Apr 2017, acquired SSJN-7 block
- In Dec 2017, ↑ capacity by 40 MMcf/d
- Private-funded 6-in. line Jobo → Bremen (“Sabanas”)
- In Dec 2018, scheduled to ↑ capacity from 2nd
expansion of the Promigas pipeline
- Promigas-funded 20-in. line Jobo → Sincelejo
- Promigas north
165 MMcf/d
- Sabanas north
40 MMcf/d
- Cerro Matos0 south*
25 MMcf/d 2 2 3
VIM 19 Esperanza VIM 21 SSJN-7 VIM-5
3
10 km Canacol gas blocks Promigas pipeline expansion Existing gas pipelines New compression stations
+100 MMcf/d N
Sabanas
3
Mature Chevron fields ~270 MMcf/d Caribbean Sea Cerro Matos0
230 MMcf/d target
* Includes 5 MMcf/d of other customers
Rich History Building Pipes
Esperanza
Palmer Toronja Oboe
Canacol gas field Flow line 5 km
Pandereta Cañandonga Canahuate
Jobo Station
Trombon Nispero Nelson Field 193 BCF
VIM 5 VIM 21
11 Clarinete Field 143 BCF
Sabanas Nov 2017
- ‘15→’17
Completed 7 pipeline projects
- ~130 aggregate kilometers
- Sourced $30 MM to build Sabanas pipeline
- Private funding (anti-dilutive)
- Commenced operations Dec 5, 2017
- 82 kilometers
- 6-inch line
83% Exploration Success Rate
VIM 21 Esperanza
’18 Chirimia-1 (appraisal) Clarinete Field 143 BCF Cañandonga Toronja Palmer
VIM 5
Oboe Trombon Nispero
’18 Breva-1 (Porquero exploration) ’18 Borojo-1 (CDO exploration)
Lead Prospect ‘18 prospect ‘18 appraisal / development
Nelson Field 193 BCF
5 km
- Strong track record from two
productive geological formations
- Ciénaga de Oro (“CDO”)
- Porquero
- 3-well exploration program in 2018
- Targeting 2 CDO / 1 Porquero
- Applying AVO to investigate presence of
gas-charged sandstones
- Gas exploration success
10-for-12 (83%)
- Avg. net pay/well
77 ft. TVD
- Avg. test rate/well
32 MMcf/d
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Jobo Station
Canacol gas field 3D seismic Flow line
Canahuate Pandereta
CENTRAL HORST BLOCK WEST FAULT BLOCK NORTH FAULT BLOCK
PAN-1 PAN-2 PAN-3 500 M
SOUTH FAULT BLOCK
CDO
Pandereta-2 Pandereta-1
VIM-5 CDO
64 ft. net gas pay 20.5% porosity 130 ft. net gas pay 23%% porosity
Pandereta 1, 2, 3 Pursuit Tests A Combined 159 MMcf/d
Pandereta-1 Pandereta-2 Pandereta-3
- Spud
Oct ’17 Dec ’17 Jan ’18
- Primary target
CDO CDO CDO
- Net gas pay (in tvd)
64 ft. 130 ft. 103 ft.
- Flow test
29 MMcf/d 51 MMcf/d 79 MMcf/d Absolute open flow 140 MMcf/d 168 MMcf/d
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Knowing That Red Means Gas, Which Map Would You Use To Explore For Gas?
1 KM
Uncalibrated 3D Calibrated 3D for AVO analysis
Breva-1 Arandala-1 Carambolo-1
AVO extraction over Porquero formation
Includes test rates
Discovery Prospect
Nuez-1 Datil-1 Cacahuate-1
14 Toronja-1 46 MMcf/d Nelson-5 13 MMcf/d Nelson-6 23 MMcf/d
Applying AVO to investigate presence of gas-charged sandstones (e.g. Porquero reservoir)
2Q 2018 Exploration
Breva-1
- Breva-1
- TD
7,300 ft md
- Reservoir target
Porquero
- Drill cost(D&A)
$3.1 MM
- Multiple follow-up locations up to 3
from the Breva pad
1 KM AVO extraction over Mid Porquero SST marker
NUEZ-1 DATIL-1 CACAHUATE-1
A B
VIM-21
TORONJA-1 NELSON-5 NELSON-6
BREVA-1
ARANDALA-1 CARAMBOLO-1 BREVA-1 TORONJA-1
A B
Top Porquero
Breva-1 offers a short 3km tie back to Toronja gas field Breva-1 tests proven play concept in the Porquero supported by AVO
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BREVA pad
2Q 2018 Appraisal
Chirimia-1 located ~1km from Clarinete-1 (production tested 45 MMcf/d)
- Chirimia-1
- TD
9,440 ft md
- Reservoir target
CDO formation
- Drill cost(D&A)
$3.65 MM
- Drilled from Clarinete-1 (“CLA-1) pad
- On success, well immediately tied in to the
Clarinete flowline to Jobo
VIM-5
Appraise fault-dependent closure downthrown from the Clarinete field (143 BCF 2P reserves)(1) Red/Yellow AVO anomalies reduce risk
16 OBOE-1 CLA-3 CLA-2 CLA-2ST
1 km
CHIRIMIA-1
Upper CDO depth structure B A A B
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
Basement
Fluid factor dip section
CLA-1 CHIRIMIA-1
(1) Clarinete gas field 2P reserves as of 12/31/16
CLA-1
Penetration point
- f Upper CDO
- Borojo-1 is a AVO supported prospect in the CDO
- TD
9,920 ft md
- Reservoir target
Cienaga de Oro
- Drill cost(D&A)
$3.6 MM
- Offset well COR-12 produced 10 BCF (not drilled
in optimal structural location)
Fluid factor extraction on top CDO, with top CDO depth contours superimposed
A B
COR-12
500 M
Lowest closing contour
Borojo-1 Feijoa-1 Feijoa-1
500 M Esperanza
3Q 2018 Exploration
Borojo-1
17 B A
Fluid factor section
Robust structural closure with strong anomaly
Borojo-1
Ecuador 140 280 420 560 Km
- S. Pacific Ocean
Colombia
Caguan Putumayo Basin Heavy oil Llanos Basin Light oil Middle Magdalena Basin Shale oil Upper Magdalena Shale oil
- Solid base producing assets
- Production
~2k bopd(1)
- 2P reserves
7.6 MMbls(2)
- Exploration upside
- Diversified portfolio
4 basins
- Blocks / net acres
14 / 1.0 MM
- Promising exploitation potential for conventional
naturally fractured shale play
- Access to “world-class” La Luna shale oil
(1) Pre-royalty net production to Canacol, for the 3 months ended 9/30/17 (2) As of the 12/31/16 reserve report
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Divest or Spin Off Canacol Oil
2Q 2018 anticipated transaction close
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$1.50 $2.50 $3.50 $4.50
20 22 38 70 86 84 83 77 76 122 ~230
Gas production growth drives share price
Quarterly gas production in MMcf/d CDN $/share
Y/Y growth rate in gas production just turned positive
20 75 85 122 ~230 +275% +13% +43% +82% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
- 50
100 150 200
MMcf/d
‘17e → ‘18e +43% ‘18e → ‘19e +82%
An Even Brighter Future
Special Assets Deliver Significant EBITDA
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'16 '19e $135 ~$275
US $ in MM
- Senior secured term loan
- Credit Suisse
+ syndicate $305 MM
- Terms
L+5.50%
- Mar ’19 → Mar ’22
~$24 MM of principal payments for 13 consecutive quarters Significant ebitda to service debt The lowest cost operator wins(1)
In USD (1) For the 3 months ended 9/30/2017 (2) Excludes Ecuador, which is awaiting sale closing
- Special assets
- Delivering natural gas under LT take-or-pay price
contracts (~$4.75/MMbtu avg.)
- Capital light business
- Spend $80 MM in 2018
- Increase production by 82%
$/MCF
Natural gas revenues $ 4.96 Transportation expenses $ (0.26) $ 4.70 Royalties $ (0.51) Production expenses $ (0.36) Operating netback $ 3.83 % margin 77%
(2)
Contact IR
TSX: CNE | BVC: CNE.C
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