The Paris Agreement Perspectives from Agriculture and Land-Use - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Perspectives from Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors

The Paris Agreement

1

The Challenge

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2030 2050

Asia Latin America Africa Europe North America Oceania

Food Production by Region 1972-2050

(Constant 2004-06 US$)

Temperature trend, Asia, 1901-2012

(annual trend change in degrees Celsius over period)

Sources of emissions from agriculture and land use in Asia

(average values 2001-2011)

2,199 573

• 186

45 425

• 700
• 200

300 800 1,300 1,800 2,300

Crops & Livestock Net Forest Conversion Forest Biomass Fires Degraded Peatlands

Million tonnes CO2, Average values over 2001-11

Food production needs to grow.. ..in the face of a changing climate.. ..while addressing GHG emissions.

Sources: California Environmental Associates, 2013 – based on FAO. 2012; IPCC, 2014; FAOSTAT, 2015

2

Traditional View: Mitigation and Adaptation

Mitigation is a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects.

– In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial

• pportunities.

– In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.

3

Global Climate Change

Change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation, etc.

Mitigation

Reduce emissions & magnitude of CC

Adaptation

Reduce vulnerability to or risk of CC impacts & losses

Greenhouse gas emissions Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Illustrative example

Source: IPCC, 2014 Adapted from: UNDP

Key Lessons - Kyoto

• Dedicating significant negotiation resources on

emissions reductions commitments and their legally binding nature was not efficient or effective

• Monitoring and reporting of commitments is essential

for building trust among countries to enact policies and programmes to improve management

• Flexibility should be a key element of the adoption

process and any future agreement

• Coverage must be expanded to have any possibility of

curbing emissions

Source: Morel & Shishlov (2014)

In parallel - Moves to better integrate risks of & responses to CC at a conceptual level

Schematic of the interaction among the physical climate system, exposure, and vulnerability producing risk

Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems

Source: IPCC (2014) CLIMATE SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES RISK

IMPACTS EMISSIONS And Land-use Change

Natural Variability Anthropogenic Climate Change Socioeconomic Pathways Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Governance

Hazards Exposure Vulnerability

= (Probability of event) X Consequences

The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, etc. in places and settings that could be adversely affected. The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected

• encompasses a variety of

concepts including sensitivity

• r susceptibility to harm and

lack of capacity to cope and adapt. The potential

• ccurrence of a

natural or human- induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, ecosystems, etc.

Path toward a global agreement

COP21 Paris Agreement

2015

2007

COP13 Bali Action Plan for long-term agreement post Kyoto

2010

COP16 Cancun Agreements move away from top-down approach to national pledges COP15 Copenhagen Accord & adoption of 2 degree target

2009

COP17 Durban Parties establish plan for a binding legal agreement

2011 2013

COP19 Warsaw Parties agree to INDC and transparency rules

Time

COP20 Lima outcome results in adaptation gaining equal footing with mitigation

2014

COP11 Montreal Costa Rica & PNG ‘RED’ in developing countries

2005

UNFCC & Kyoto

• Common but

differentiated responsibilities

• Focus on

mitigation

• Role of forestry

has grown over time

• Agriculture largely

neglected

Paris Agreement – Overview

What is the Paris Agreement?

• An agreement by the 196 Parties to the UNFCCC to act limit the

increase in global average temperature to below 2°C

• Long-term commitment to balance emission sources and sinks

When will action start & finish?

• Commitment period commences in 2020
• Countries have identified actions up to 2025 and at least 2030

How will the Agreement be implemented?

• Agreement based upon Nationally Determined Contributions

(NDCs)

• Parties have agreed to be bound by an enhanced transparency

framework (ETF) What is an enhanced transparency framework?

• Countries will be required to submit the following on a regular

basis: 1. A national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions 2. Information necessary to track progress implementing the NDCs

Paris Agreement – Overview

2030

Road ahead for the Paris Agreement

2017

Review of adaptation under the UNFCC

2020

Parties to communicate NDC and long-term emissions strategies and deadline for achieving US100 billion financing goal Facilitative dialogue

• n INDCs,

discussion of common modalities for transparency and IPCC report on 1.5 degrees

2018

First stock take of progress

2023 2025

Developed countries to review adequacy

• f finance

Second stock take of progress

2028

Countries invited to sign- up and work commences on CBIT

2016

Paris Features

• Global (55 rule)
• Country driven
• Partially-binding
• Special long-term role

afforded to sinks

• Transparency key tool

for implementation

• Equal importance of

resilience and adaptation

• NDC key planning document for future climate change

adaptation and mitigation actions

• Warsaw Framework for REDD+ and results-based payments

enshrined as part of the Agreement

• Experience with REDD+ and MRV means forest sector may

have useful lessons for Transparency Framework

• Opportunities to highlight and foster non-carbon benefits for

biodiversity, livelihoods and resilience among others

• Potential to access public and private finance to support NDC

implementation

Implications for Agriculture and Land-use sectors

Paris and the Asia-Pacific Region

• Under the Paris Agreement

countries in Asia-Pacific have signaled Agriculture (crops, livestock, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture) as a key concern

• Countries have identified 256

INDC priority actions for the Agriculture sectors

• Action to address climate change

an “enabler” for SDGs

18 12 12 10 9 10 4 7 9 11 11 8 8 4 7 4 2 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 9 10 7 7 6 4 10 6 4 1 2 1 3 3 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

5 10 15 20 25 30

Adaptation Mitigation

Number of INDC actions for agriculture and land-use sectors in Asia-Pacific

(by country)

11 Source: FAORAP, 2016

Share of INDC actions identified for the agriculture and land use sectors in Asia-Pacific by type

(percentage - number in brackets)

Priorities for climate action in Agriculture

27 9 19 7 5 30 72 37 3 12 12 6 1 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Forestry Fisheries and aquaculture Crops Livestock Land Water Sector-wide Number of INDC actions identified for agriculture and land-use sectors in Asia- Pacific

(by broad agriculture sector)

66% 34% (169) (87)

Adaptation is the most pressing concern .and action is required across all agriculture sectors.

Sources: FAORAP, 2016 12

Relationship between INDCs and other UNFCC planning mechanisms

Illustrative example

NDC is not duplication

Adapted from: GIZ, 2015

UNFCCC Commitment

Pledge

(INDC)

NDC Action

(NDC Implementation)

NAMA REDD+ NAP NAMA REDD+ NAP NAMA REDD+ NAP NAMA REDD+ NAP

National Development and Climate Change Policies

Long-term strategy Activity/Tool

2015 2016-2019 2020-2030

• NDCs rooted in

existing policy frameworks

• NDCs will be guided by

and build upon existing tools and activities

Implementation – Some unknowns

NDC implementation timeline – Escalating programming and reporting requirements

(Illustrative example)

Existing Programs Scaled up Programs

(sector and geographical levels)

NDC Implementation Activities

(whole sector and broad geographical scope) Project &Programme M&E Aggregated M&R ETF Progress Monitoring

Now 2020 2030

Priority Activities Progress Monitoring

Source: FAORAP, 2016

• Scaling-up from project

level to national level actions

• Meeting transparency

requirements for data and verification

• Finance
• Increasing ambition

levels

Regional Workshop – “On the road to enhanced transparency for NDC Implementation”

Donor partners: Organizing partners:

On the road to enhanced transparency for NDC Implementation

Understanding Capacity Needs for the Paris Agreement Enhanced Transparency Framework in Agriculture and Land Use sectors in Asia and the Pacific

Workshop

To strengthen country capacity to prepare for implementation and monitoring of National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement by identifying core technical and institutional capacity gaps and needs for national inventory and monitoring systems for adaptation and mitigation actions in the agriculture and land-use sectors

Workshop Objective

Forum Roadmap

Session 1

Unpacking the Paris Agreement

Session 2

Assessing Readiness for the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF)

Session 3

Investigating the elements of the ETF

Session 4

Addressing Gaps and Needs for Transparency

Session 5

On the road to enhanced transparency for NDC implementation

?

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

• 1. Capacity building action plans for enhanced NDC transparency in the

agriculture, forestry and other land use sectors for countries in Asia and the Pacific

• 2. A roadmap for enhanced NDC transparency in the agriculture, forestry and
• ther land use sectors for Asia and the Pacific
• 3. Summary brief

Target Outputs

Country status

GHG Monitoring and Reporting Systems

• Lack of human capacity for GHG inventory and data collection
• More technical guidance on the use of tools e.g. inventory tools

linked to national reporting

• No sustainability in reporting NCs if based solely on consultants
• Already existing coordination in countries and institutional

arrangements in place, but level of interactions and details in reporting and planning could be strengthened

Country status

Monitoring and Evaluation CC Adaptation Actions

• Lack of integration among line ministries
• Policy framework and political commitment are developing
• Better coordination and reporting from community CCA projects-based is needed if it

is to be sustainable

• Low levels of extension support to farmers for the uptake of CCA practices and

general lack of know-how

• Good coordination among Ministries on planning, but no proper M&E system yet

and many different projects-based indicators

• Need for national climate scenarios (lack of modeling capacity)

ETF Elements - Transparency

• The enhanced transparency framework (ETF) is a key feature of the Paris

Agreement

• ETF requirements will reflect national contexts and capacities and will be

based upon existing UNFCCC reporting requirements

• Adaptation requirements are still largely unknown
• Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT) is a new trust fund under

the Global Environment Facility (GEF) for countries to access support to meet ETF requirements

• Countries are interested to mobilize this support to enhance transparency

ETF Elements – Monitoring and reporting Net GHG Emissions

• Sustainable institutional arrangements are important
• Connecting inventory to the monitoring of mitigation policies could
• pen up opportunities to achieve other development goals
• Data collection and accuracy are an important concern – but need

to be enhanced gradually

• Several tools available to support counties
• Coordination for international support could be useful
• Mitigation/Adaptation co-benefits are of growing interest

ETF Elements - Adaptation

• Adaptation M&E will be a key issue for NDC transparency
• Adaptation M&E is characterized by a number of conceptual,

institutional and operational challenges

• Identifying and agreeing upon indicators will be a key challenge for

national adaptation M&E

• Need to balance the contextual and participatory benefits of

project/community-based adaptation with the requirements for manageable national adaptation reporting systems

• The NDCs will provide countries with a solid foundation for

strengthening adaptation M&E in agriculture and land-use sectors

ETF Elements - JMA

• Joint Mitigation-Adaptation actions aim to capture synergies and

demonstrate additional potential benefits associated both mitigation and adaptation actions

• JMA is a relatively new concept and an opportunity for the region to

capture benefits from action to address drivers and impacts of climate change

• NDCs already identify opportunities for synergy between mitigation and

adaptation priorities

• A number of potential models exist for JMA from the region exist – but

specific elements of JMA interventions will need to be better defined

• Monitoring JMA may present challenges

Regional Roadmap

Countries meet biennial reporting requirements under the Paris Agreement (PA) Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) Countries meet biennial reporting requirements under the Paris Agreement (PA) Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) Countries develop and implement PA monitoring and reporting roadmaps Countries develop and implement PA monitoring and reporting roadmaps CBIT and technical partners address country capacity needs and gaps for the PA ETF identified in country monitoring and reporting roadmaps CBIT and technical partners address country capacity needs and gaps for the PA ETF identified in country monitoring and reporting roadmaps Countries assess existing capacity to meet biennial reporting requirements under the PA ETF Countries assess existing capacity to meet biennial reporting requirements under the PA ETF

Indicators

• No. of assessments

Assumptions Countries have not assessed existing capacity to meet biennial reporting requirements under the PA ETF Indicators

• No. of proposals for support developed
• Funding mobilized for roadmap activities

Assumptions Countries do not have sufficient resources and technical capacity to address all gaps and needs

Indicators

• National inventory reports
• Biennial update reports
• PA monitoring reports for mitigation and

adaptation Assumptions Countries are not currently meeting UNFCCC reporting requirements to a satisfactory level

Indicators

• No. of roadmaps developed
• Budget allocated to implement roadmap

activities Assumptions Countries have not developed strategies to meet biennial reporting requirements under the PA ETF

Workshop Materials

All workshop materials can be accessed here: http://faounfcccagworkshop.wix.com/etfforndcworkshop

Thank You

27