The Paris Agreement Perspectives from Agriculture and Land-Use - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Paris Agreement Perspectives from Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors 1

The Challenge Food production needs to grow.. ..in the face of a changing climate.. ..while addressing GHG emissions. Food Production by Region 1972-2050 Temperature trend, Asia, 1901-2012 Sources of emissions from agriculture (Constant 2004-06 US$) (annual trend change in degrees Celsius over and land use in Asia period) (average values 2001-2011) 4,000 2,300 Million tonnes CO2, Average values over 2001-11 3,500 1,800 3,000 1,300 2,500 2,199 Asia 800 2,000 1,500 300 573 425 45 Latin America 1,000 Africa -186 -200 Oceania 500 Europe Crops & Net Forest Forest Biomass Degraded Livestock Conversion Fires Peatlands -700 North America 0 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2030 2050 2 Sources: California Environmental Associates, 2013 – based on FAO. 2012; IPCC, 2014; FAOSTAT, 2015

Traditional View: Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Mitigation is a human intervention Illustrative example to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases Global Climate Change Adaptation is the process of Change in mean global temperature, changes in adjustment to actual or expected regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation, etc. climate and its effects. – In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial Greenhouse Climate Change opportunities. gas emissions Impacts – In some natural systems, human intervention may Adaptation Mitigation facilitate adjustment to Reduce Reduce expected climate and its vulnerability to or emissions & effects. risk of CC magnitude of CC impacts & losses Adapted from: UNDP Source: IPCC, 2014 3

Key Lessons - Kyoto • Dedicating significant negotiation resources on emissions reductions commitments and their legally binding nature was not efficient or effective • Monitoring and reporting of commitments is essential for building trust among countries to enact policies and programmes to improve management • Flexibility should be a key element of the adoption process and any future agreement • Coverage must be expanded to have any possibility of curbing emissions Source: Morel & Shishlov (2014)

In parallel - Moves to better integrate risks of & responses to CC at a conceptual level Schematic of the interaction among the physical climate system, exposure, and vulnerability producing risk Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems IMPACTS The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected The potential - encompasses a variety of occurrence of a concepts including sensitivity Vulnerability SOCIOECONOMIC natural or human- CLIMATE or susceptibility to harm and PROCESSES induced physical lack of capacity to cope and event or trend or Socioeconomic adapt. physical impact that Pathways Natural may cause loss of Variability life, injury, or other RISK Hazards Adaptation and health impacts, as = (Probability of event) X Mitigation well as damage and Consequences Actions Anthropogenic loss to property, The presence of people, Climate Change ecosystems, etc. livelihoods, species or Governance ecosystems, etc. in places Exposure and settings that could be adversely affected. EMISSIONS And Land-use Change Source: IPCC (2014)

Path toward a global agreement UNFCC & Kyoto COP20 COP11 Montreal COP17 Durban Costa Rica & Lima outcome COP15 Parties establish PNG results in Copenhagen plan for a ‘RED’ in adaptation gaining • Common but Accord & binding legal developing equal footing with adoption of 2 differentiated agreement countries mitigation degree target responsibilities 2011 2014 2005 2009 COP21 • Focus on Paris mitigation Agreement Time 2015 • Role of forestry 2007 2010 2013 has grown over COP13 COP16 COP19 Warsaw time Bali Action Plan Cancun Parties agree to for long-term Agreements INDC and agreement post move away from transparency • Agriculture largely Kyoto top-down rules approach to neglected national pledges

Paris Agreement – Overview What is the Paris Agreement? • An agreement by the 196 Parties to the UNFCCC to act limit the increase in global average temperature to below 2°C • Long-term commitment to balance emission sources and sinks When will action start & finish? • Commitment period commences in 2020 • Countries have identified action s up to 2025 and at least 2030

Paris Agreement – Overview How will the Agreement be implemented? • Agreement based upon Nationally Determined Contributions ( NDC s) • Parties have agreed to be bound by an enhanced transparency framework ( ETF ) What is an enhanced transparency framework? • Countries will be require d to submit the following on a regular basis: 1. A national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions 2. Information necessary to track progress implementing the NDCs

Road ahead for the Paris Agreement Facilitative dialogue on INDCs, Paris Features Countries discussion of invited to sign- common modalities up and work First stock Second stock for transparency • Global (55 rule) commences on take of take of and IPCC report on CBIT progress progress 1.5 degrees • Country driven 2016 2018 2023 2028 • Partially-binding 2030 • Special long-term role afforded to sinks 2017 2020 2025 • Transparency key tool for implementation Review of Parties to Developed adaptation communicate NDC countries to under the and long-term review adequacy • Equal importance of UNFCC emissions strategies of finance resilience and and deadline for adaptation achieving US100 billion financing goal

Implications for Agriculture and Land-use sectors • NDC key planning document for future climate change adaptation and mitigation actions • Warsaw Framework for REDD+ and results-based payments enshrined as part of the Agreement • Experience with REDD+ and MRV means forest sector may have useful lessons for Transparency Framework • Opportunities to highlight and foster non-carbon benefits for biodiversity, livelihoods and resilience among others • Potential to access public and private finance to support NDC implementation

Paris and the Asia-Pacific Region Number of INDC actions for agriculture and land-use sectors in Asia-Pacific • Under the Paris Agreement (by country) countries in Asia-Pacific have 30 signaled Agriculture (crops, livestock, forestry, fisheries and 25 aquaculture) as a key concern 20 9 • Countries have identified 256 15 10 7 1 INDC priority actions for the 7 4 6 4 10 2 1 6 Agriculture sectors 10 3 3 2 5 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 18 12 12 10 9 10 4 7 9 11 11 8 8 4 7 4 2 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 • Action to address climate change 0 an “enabler” for SDGs Adaptation Mitigation 11 Source: FAORAP, 2016

Priorities for climate action in Agriculture Adaptation is the most pressing concern� �.and action is required across all agriculture sectors. Share of INDC actions identified for the agriculture and Number of INDC actions identified for agriculture and land-use sectors in Asia- land use sectors in Asia-Pacific by type Pacific (percentage - number in brackets) (by broad agriculture sector) 100 90 (87) 80 16 34% 70 60 50 40 1 37 30 12 20 12 6 3 66% 10 27 9 19 7 5 30 72 (169) 0 Forestry Fisheries Crops Livestock Land Water Sector-wide and aquaculture 12 Sources: FAORAP, 2016

NDC is not duplication Relationship between INDCs and other UNFCC planning mechanisms • NDCs rooted in Illustrative example existing policy frameworks National Development and Climate Change Policies Long-term • NDCs will be guided by strategy and build upon existing UNFCCC tools and activities Pledge NDC Action Commitment (INDC) (NDC Implementation) REDD+ REDD+ REDD+ REDD+ NAMA NAMA NAMA NAMA NAP NAP NAP NAP Activity/Tool 2015 2016-2019 2020-2030 Adapted from: GIZ, 2015

Implementation – Some unknowns NDC implementation timeline – Escalating p rogramming and reporting requirements • Scaling-up from project (Illustrative example) level to national level actions • Meeting transparency requirements for data NDC Implementation Activities and verification Scaled up Programs (whole sector and broad • Finance geographical scope) Priority Existing (sector and • Increasing ambition Activities geographical levels) Programs levels Progress Aggregated M&R ETF Progress Monitoring Project &Programme M&E Monitoring Now 2020 2030 Source: FAORAP, 2016

Workshop On the road to enhanced transparency for NDC Implementation Understanding Capacity Needs for the Paris Agreement Enhanced Transparency Framework in Agriculture and Land Use sectors in Asia and the Pacific Regional Workshop – “ On the road to enhanced transparency for NDC Implementation” Donor partners: Organizing partners:

Workshop Objective To strengthen country capacity to prepare for implementation and monitoring of National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement by identifying core technical and institutional capacity gaps and needs for national inventory and monitoring systems for adaptation and mitigation actions in the agriculture and land-use sectors