The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 November 9, 2010 Rob Gardner - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 November 9, 2010 Rob Gardner - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 November 9, 2010 Rob Gardner This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to

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SLIDE 1 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

The Outlook for Energy

a view to 2030

November 9, 2010 Rob Gardner

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

Economic and Energy Evolution

As societies and technologies develop over time… … energy needs evolve as well

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

“... adoption of cleaner and more reliable forms of energy is... key to achieving many

  • f the Millennium Development Goals.”
  • United Nations

Economic and Energy Evolution

Quadrillion BTUs

Global Demand By Fuel

1800 1900 2000 1850 1950

“Access to modern forms of energy... provides great benefits to development...” - IEA

Biomass Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Other Renewables Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil Hydro

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

5 10 15 20 25 Non OECD OECD United States China Other Other Trillion 2005$ 20 40 60 80 100 1980 2005 2030 China India Other Non OECD Other Non OECD Latin America Latin America Africa Africa Middle East Middle East

Economic Growth Continues

Trillion 2005$

GDP

Europe OECD Other OECD United States

GDP Growth 2005 to 2030

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

150 300 450 1980 2005 2030 150 300 450 1980 2005 2030

Expansion Economies Drive Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

United States Europe OECD Other Quadrillion BTUs

Non OECD

China India Middle East Other Latin America Africa

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

200 400 600 800 1000 1980 2005 2030 ~300 Energy Savings Quadrillion BTUs

Demand

200 400 600 800 1000 1980 2005 2030 Quadrillion BTUs 5 10 15 20 25 30 OECD Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs

Demand

MBTU/2005$k GDP

Demand Energy Intensity

Efficiency Key to Meeting Demand

1980 2005 2030

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1980 2005 2030

Global Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

By Sector

Transportation Power Generation Industrial Res/Comm 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1980 2005 2030 Quadrillion BTUs

By Fuel

Oil Biomass Nuclear Coal Gas Renewables

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

50 100 150 200 250 Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Nuclear Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels 0.7% Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

2005 2030 0.7% 2.0% 0.4% 2.3% 2.1% 9.9%

World Average Growth/Yr. ’05 to ’30 – 1.2%

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

30 60 90 1980 2005 2030 5 10 15 20 1980 2005 2030 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1980 2005 2030

Diverse Fuel Mix Meets Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Primary Energy Renewables Wind, Solar, & Biofuels

Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Biomass Hydro Geo Wind, Solar, & Biofuels Biofuels Wind Solar

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

technologies for fuel production

shorter-term

  • energy efficiency
  • flare reduction
  • cogeneration

longer-term

  • second generation bio-fuels
  • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Technologies for GHG Reduction

gasoline internal combustion engine from crude oil – well-to-wheels basis

crude recovery crude transportation crude refining to products product storage & transportation retail site gasoline vehicle production of fuel 20% GHG/mile

technologies for consumers’ use of fuel

shorter-term

  • conventional vehicle technology improvements

− engines (e.g. adv. lubricants); efficient transmissions − others (e.g. tire liners, low weight plastics)

  • advanced vehicles

− hybrid (e.g. lithium ion battery materials) − advanced diesel longer-term

  • breakthrough vehicles

− “HCCI” or “CAI”; fuel cell (e.g. on-board H2 generator) − plug-in hybrid and EV (e.g. lithium ion battery materials)

Source: U.S. Basis - WTW Study, Argonne National Lab, 2005

Consumers’ use of fuel 80% GHG/mile

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

Many bio-energy pathways emerging biomass

power plant

electricity and heat

gasification

cellulosic ethanol gasoline gasoline diesel

methanol unit MTG pre- treatment hydrolysis fermentation anerobic conversion

bio-gas

bio-oil production bio-oil conversion

algae sun + CO2 + water

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

  • ExxonMobil alliance with Synthetic Genomics Inc

– focus on development of advanced biofuels from photosynthetic algae – complements ExxonMobil’s ongoing efforts to advance breakthrough technologies to meet the world’s energy challenges

Algae-based biofuels

  • benefits of using algae for biofuels production:

– can be grown using land and water unsuitable for food production – potentially yield greater volumes of biofuels per acre than other biofuel sources – could be used to manufacture biofuels similar to today’s transportation fuels – growing algae consume CO2; algae-based biofuels could provide GHG mitigation benefits versus conventional fuels

Sunlight Carbon Dioxide Water Algae More Algae Containing Hydrocarbons Oxygen

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

technologies for fuel production shorter-term

  • energy efficiency
  • flare reduction
  • cogeneration

longer-term

  • second generation bio-fuels
  • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Technologies for GHG Reduction

gasoline internal combustion engine from crude oil – well-to-wheels basis

crude recovery crude transportation crude refining to products product storage & transportation retail site gasoline vehicle production of fuel 20% GHG/mile

technologies for consumers’ use of fuel shorter-term

  • conventional vehicle technology improvements

− engines, transmissions, body and accessories

  • advanced vehicles

− hybrids, advanced diesel engines longer-term

  • breakthrough vehicles

− “HCCI” or “CAI”; hydrogen fuel cells − plug-in hybrid, battery electric vehicles

Source: U.S. Basis - WTW Study, Argonne National Lab, 2005

Consumers’ use of fuel 80% GHG/mile

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

30 60 90 120 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 MBDOE 30 60 90 120 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 MBDOE

Liquids Supply

Supply Liquids Demand

Liquids Support Growing Demand

Liquids Supply

2005 OPEC Non-OPEC 2030 Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 0.8% ~29 ~35 ~36 OPEC Crude ~27 Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate Canadian Oil Sands NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other Biofuels Biofuels

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1850 1900 1950 2000

Transition to Modern Energy / Technology

US Energy Demand

Percent Energy Information Agency Railways & Steamships Canals Telegraph Coal Mining Personal Vehicles Wood & Coal Heating Rail Freight Passenger Flights Electrification Oil Prod & Refining Telephone Air Conditioning Nuclear Power Natural Gas in Homes Road Freight Deepwater & Arctic Cell Phones & PCs Shale Gas & Oil Sands Wind Hybrid Vehicle Wood Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewables Gas Oil

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

In thirty minutes today…

Residential electricity demand is equal to 1,100 Hoover Dams. The world used enough electricity to power London for 8 days. The world used enough jet fuel to make 240 transatlantic flights. The world produced enough steel to build 10 Eiffel Towers. 1.3 million personal vehicles filled their gas tanks. World gas consumption could fill 70,000 hot-air balloons.

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

Development Challenges and Solutions

8 billion people 100% increase in global GDP 35% increase in energy demand 300 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency All reliable, affordable energy supplies needed World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow

Technology

Increase Efficiency Expand Supplies Mitigate Emissions

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

  • ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics will develop innovative solutions to the

challenges of large scale production and commercialization of algae-based biofuels

– identifying and developing algal strains that achieve high bio-oil yields at lower cost – determining the best production systems for growing algal strains – developing integrated systems required for full scale, economic production of biofuels

  • if successful, algae-based biofuels could help augment the world’s

transportation fuel supply and assist in reducing greenhouse gas emissions Algae-based biofuels – key challenges

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– Leadership role in engineering, process development and scale up – Key role in upgrading bio-oil produced by photosynthetic algae into finished products, and total process integration for development and commercial applications

ExxonMobil – SGI alliance

  • R&D program

– targets production of bio-oils from photosynthetic algae for conversion to advanced biofuels compatible with today’s vehicle and fuels infrastructure – if R&D milestones are successfully met, ExxonMobil expects to spend more than $600M

algae growth algae harvesting bio-oil recovery bio-oil transport & storage bio-oil conversion biofuel products – Leadership role in biological research for algae strain development, growth and harvesting – Key role in bio-oil recovery research and development

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

ExxonMobil: improving efficiency

  • Lithium-ion battery technology

Innovative film separator could help put more fuel-efficient hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles on the road

  • Advanced synthetic lubricants

Mobil 1 AFE can improve fuel economy by up to 2 percent[1] versus most commonly used motor oils

  • Cogeneration

Process used at about 100 plants[2] worldwide to capture and use heat generates electric power up to 50% more efficiently than local utilities

[1] Actual savings are dependent upon vehicle/engine type, outside temperature, driving conditions, and current engine oil viscosity. [2] In which ExxonMobil has interests.

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

ExxonMobil: expanding supplies

  • Directional drilling

Record-setting horizontal wells stretching 7+ miles enable us to produce more oil with less environmental impact

  • Unconventional and liquefied natural gas

Multi-Zone Stimulation TechnologyTM, allows us to produce “tight gas”; large-scale Q-Max tankers allow us to safely and efficiently deliver natural gas to markets worldwide.

  • Algae biofuels

ExxonMobil is investing up to $600 million to develop oils that are compatible with existing transportation technology and infrastructure from photosynthetic, CO2-consuming algae

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ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

ExxonMobil: reducing emissions

  • Natural gas

ExxonMobil is a global leader in production of natural gas, electricity from natural gas emits up to 60 percent less CO2 than coal

  • Controlled Freeze Zone™

This technology, which reduces the cost and complexity of separating CO2 from produced natural gas, could help carbon capture and storage systems reduce GHG

  • Carbon capture and storage

As a leader in CCS, ExxonMobil has captured up to 4 million metric tons of CO2 per year in Wyoming, and partnered to store 10 million metric tons in the North Sea.

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BACKUP SLIDES

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  • 100

100 200 300 400 $/Ton

  • 100

100 200 300 400 $/Ton

CO2 Abatement Economic in Power

US Cost of CO2 Avoidance

Existing Gas* Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Conventional Engine Improvements *Higher utilization of existing gas vs. existing coal

  • vs. Existing

Light Duty Vehicles Full Hybrids 2nd Gen Ethanol 1st Gen Ethanol

  • vs. New Coal

PHEVs Fuel Cells Start-Stop Hybrids Gas + CCS CNG Source: JEC (2007), CARB (March 2009), EIA AEO