The Nappy Factor in Golf: The Effect of Children on the Sporting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Nappy Factor in Golf: The Effect of Children on the Sporting Performance

• f Professional Golfers

Tony Syme

Who to back this week?

Economic Effects

• Motherhood Penalty vs Fatherhood Premium

Earnings:

• Lundberg & Rose (2000): first child associated with

5% reduction in mother’s wage rate and 9% increase in the father’s Hours of Work:

• Lundberg & Rose (2000): first child associated with

45% reduction in hours of work for mothers and no significant change for fathers

• No significant labour markets impacts from

second child onwards

If First-Born is a Son…

• Reduces probability of divorce
• Increases levels of general as well as marital

satisfaction

• Much higher for fathers than mothers (75% vs 14%;

Kohler, Behrman and Skytthe, 2005)

• Fathers spend more time with children
• Linked to smaller family sizes
• More likely to vote Conservative/Republican

than Democrat/Labour/Liberal Democrat

For general review, see Lundberg, S. (2005) ‘Sons, Daughters and Parental Behaviour’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21(3), 340-56

• Age-earning profile linked to increasing and

deteriorating human capital Problems

• Other factors with same

profile may impact earnings

• Work experience

proxied by age not controlled for

• Selection bias –

transition to retirement for high earners

Age-Earning Profile

Golf: Age-Earning Profile

Source: https://golfanalytics.wordpress.com/2013/10/11/the-aging- curve-for-pga-tour-golfers-part-ii/

Becker’s Human Capital Model

• Household division of labour as a household

utility maximisation exercise

• See conference proceedings paper for derivation of

first-order conditions

• Degree of specialisation within household

depends on relative market wages and productivities within the home

• Marginal utilities from time and effort spent at

home will change with fatherhood and again with further children

Data Source

• PGA Tour – 225 professional golfers, 1996-2016

Benefits:

• Ability to change productivity/earnings

immediately following birth of child

• Productivity and earnings directly measurable
• Relatively long time period for longitudinal study

Prize Money Distribution

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951535557596163656769

Prize Money % Position

Empirical Specification

is either score or ln(earnings) is a vector of human capital explanatory variables: age, plus its quadratic term, number of years as a professional golfer prior to joining the PGA Tour, and a dummy variable indicating the player’s first season on the PGA Tour is a vector of child variables: number of children, ages of children, and gender of children is the unobserved heterogeneity term, assumed to be individual-specific and time-invariant

Effect of Children

• Baseline results:
• Players with children earn 10% per tournament more

than childless men

• Effect increases slightly over time and holds for the

first two children, but not from third child onwards

Dependent variable Score (1) Score (2) Score (3) Ln(Money) (4) Ln(Money) (5) Ln(Money) (6) Independent variable Child

• 0.093***
• 0.084***

0.104*** 0.099*** (0.032) (0.032) (0.026) (0.026) Fatherhood Years

• 0.013***

0.016*** (0.004) (0.003) One Child

• 0.098***

0.103*** (0.033) (0.026) Two Children

• 0.078*

0.102*** (0.042) (0.033) Three or more Children 0.231***

• 0.041

(0.058) (0.046)

• 0.153

0.155 0.153 0.157 0.157 0.157 Number of observations 43,228 43,228 43,228 26,641 26,641 26,641

Effect of Child Gender

Dependent variable Score (1) Score (2) Ln(Money) (3) Ln(Money) (4) Independent variable One Child (Boy)

• 0.093**

0.161*** (0.043) (0.034) One Child (Girl)

• 0.127***

0.057 (0.046) (0.035) Two Children (Boy, then Girl)

• 0.040

0.119** (0.062) (0.048) Two Children (Girl, then Boy) 0.072

• 0.037

(0.061) (0.047) Two Children (Both Boys)

• 0.029

0.096** (0.059) (0.047) Two Children (Both Girls)

• 0.475***

0.219*** (0.072) (0.054) At Least Three Children 0.210***

• 0.053

(0.058) (0.046) Number of Boys 0.058 0.096*** (0.045) (0.036) (Number of Boys)^2 0.011

• 0.042***

(0.017) (0.014) Number of Girls

• 0.263***

0.126*** (0.052) (0.041) (Number of Girls)^2 0.134***

• 0.076***

(0.023) (0.019)

• Fathers earn 16% more than childless men if only

child is a son; no increase if only child is daughter

Earnings impact drops to 10-12% if two children and first was a son Positive impact of daughters is not found in

• ther studies

Effect of Child Age

Dependent variable Score (1) Ln(Money) (2) Independent variable First Child, aged 0-2

• 0.090***

0.092*** (0.033) (0.026) First Child, aged 3-5

• 0.067

0.158*** (0.049) (0.038) First Child, aged 6-8

• 0.130**

0.225*** (0.061) (0.047) First Child, aged 9-11

• 0.432***

0.384*** (0.072) (0.056) First Child, aged 12-14

• 0.536***

0.543*** (0.086) (0.067) First Child, aged 15-17

• 0.607***

0.509*** (0.106) (0.082) Second Child, aged 0-2

• 0.010
• 0.053

(0.043) (0.033) Second Child, aged 3-5 0.099*

• 0.078*

(0.059) (0.045) Second Child, aged 6-8 0.348***

• 0.271***

(0.075) (0.058) Second Child, aged 9-11 0.562***

• 0.429***

(0.095) (0.073) Second Child, aged 12-14 0.887***

• 0.587***

(0.125) (0.097) Second Child, aged 15-17 0.918***

• 0.313**

(0.177) (0.132) At Least Three Children 0.258***

• 0.143***

(0.050) (0.039)

• Permanent positive

increase in productivity and earnings following birth of first child

• Very different for second

child – significant and sizeable negative effects from age 6 onwards

Effect of First Child

• If first child is a son:
• Immediate and

permanent positive increase in earnings, but effect on productivity limited until age 6

• If first child is a daughter:
• Increase in productivity

and earnings largely only follows nine years into fatherhood

• No gender differences for

later children

Dependent variable Score (1) Ln(Money) (2) Independent variable First Child, Boy aged 0-2

• 0.076*

0.129*** (0.042) (0.034) First Child, Boy aged 3-5

• 0.009

0.198*** (0.056) (0.044) First Child, Boy aged 6-8

• 0.231***

0.290*** (0.066) (0.052) First Child, Boy aged 9-11

• 0.457***

0.388*** (0.078) (0.061) First Child, Boy aged 12-14

• 0.498***

0.595*** (0.094) (0.072) First Child, Boy aged 15-17

• 0.523***

0.537*** (0.113) (0.084) First Child, Girl aged 0-2

• 0.094**

0.056 (0.046) (0.036) First Child, Girl aged 3-5

• 0.118*

0.073 (0.064) (0.050) First Child, Girl aged 6-8 0.044 0.073 (0.080) (0.063) First Child, Girl aged 9-11

• 0.353***

0.332*** (0.095) (0.074) First Child, Girl aged 12-14

• 0.564***

0.453*** (0.117) (0.090) First Child, Girl aged 15-17

• 0.857***

0.448*** (0.168) (0.130)

(Results for later children not reported)

Overall Results

• 1. Fatherhood increases PGA Tour golfers’

earnings by 10% and this rises to up to 16% if first child is a son

• 2. Further children reduce the fatherhood

premium, but only from school age onwards

• 3. First-born sons have greater impact on

fathers’ earnings than productivity

• Relevance of tournament theory (Lazear & Rosen,

1979): wage differences not based on differences in marginal productivity, but on relative rank

• First-born sons make fathers more competitive and

perform better under pressure