The Local Elections Media Briefing Wednesday 24 th April The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Local Elections Media Briefing

Wednesday 24th April

The Political Landscape

John Curtice

The Structure

• The Rise of UKIP
• Tory troubles
• Liberal Democrat losses (briefly)
• Labour’s strength and weaknesses
• Scotland (briefly)

Party Fortunes in This Parliament

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Con Lab Lib Dem

The Rise and Impact of UKIP

39 37 36 33 34 33 33 33 32 33 33 32 32 30 29 31 38 39 40 40 42 41 42 41 41 43 43 41 41 43 40 39 13 12 11 11 10 12 11 12 13 11 11 11 11 10 12 11 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 12 12 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP

UKIP – Mode Matters (to a Degree)

11 12 16 14 8 9 11 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Jan Feb Mar Apr Internet Phone

How the Popularity Stakes Differ Now

• 6
• 2

15 3

• 8
• 12

5

• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15 20 Since 2009 Since 2005 Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP

UKIP hurting the Tories most

19 10 18 18 4 2 4 4 11 8 8 6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov % 2010 vote defecting to UKIP

%

Con Lab Lib Dem

Sources of UKIP Support

43 36 50 46 6 5 9 10 15 18 16 8 36 41 25 35 10 20 30 40 50 60 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov Con Lab Lib Dem Oth/UKIP/DNV

The Age Gap

6 4 3 2 18 11 15 19 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov % UKIP support 18-24 60/65+

The Gender Difference

17 12 12 12 12 8 6 11 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov % UKIP support Men Women

The Social Profile

11 7 7 13 13 8 21 11 12 18 10 10 5 10 15 20 25 ComRes ICM MORI % UKIP Support AB C1 C2 DE

The Initial Trigger?

31 30 30 29 25 26 24 25 26 25 27 23 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

Trust Cameron/Osborne to run economy

Source: ComRes

The UKIP-Tory Contrast on Trust

65 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Con UKIP

% trust Cameron/Osborne

Source: ComRes

Satisfaction with Cameron

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Satisfied Dissatisfied

Source: Ipsos MORI

Top Motivators in Eastleigh

7 7 6 1 2 1 26 2 55 1 31 10 20 30 40 50 60 Immigration Local Council Europe Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP

Source: Lord Ashcroft

Best Parties Nationally

% saying ‘Other’ best party

• n

All Voters UKIP Voters Europe 17 78 Asylum/Immigration 16 78 Law & Order 7 49 Taxation 6 41 Economy in general 6 40 Unemployment 6 40 Education 6 37 NHS 5 37

Source: YouGov 24-25 Mar

Cameron’s (Short-Term?) Impact

10 20 30 40 50 60 Leave EU Stay EU

Source: YouGov

Lib Dems (still) losing to Labour

9 11 13 6 32 24 38 25 35 52 35 53 23 13 14 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov Con Lab LD Other

Sources of Lab Support

5 7 3 3 66 68 72 53 17 11 11 22 11 13 13 22 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov Con Lab LD Oth/DNV

Labour Still to Convince on Economy

18 18 21 15 19 22 20 20 24 21 20 20 5 10 15 20 25 30 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

Trust Miliband/Balls to run economy

Source: ComRes

Or to Avoid the Blame

29 26 27 26 26 29 24 34 35 36 38 36 37 36 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

Most to blame for spending cuts

Coalition Labour

Source: YouGov

Though 2010 Lib Dem voters…

16 19 66 54 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Cameron/Osborne Miliband/Balls Trust Don't

Source: ComRes

Miliband’s Rating

10 20 30 40 50 60 Satisfied Dissatisfied

Source: Scottish Social Attitudes

How Miliband Compares

3

• 44
• 9

16

• 29

17

• 16
• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

10 20 30 Thatcher Foot Kinnock Blair Hague Cameron Miliband

Net Satisfaction

Labour’s Boundary Bonus

Lib Dem Share 10% 15% 20% 24% % lead Lab need for maj. New Boundaries 2.9 3.9 4.2 4.7 Old Boundaries 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.7 % lead Con need for maj New Boundaries 2.7 3.1 5.1 7.1 Old Boundaries 5.9 6.9 9.5 11.2

Scotland – Referendum Polls Summary

41 40 59 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 SG Question EC Question Yes No

Conclusions

• There are currently two key battles in British

(English) politics

– Labour vs. Lib Dems – UKIP vs Conservatives

• Labour are best placed for 2015 – but far from

invulnerable if protesting Lib Dems think again

• To overcome UKIP, Con need to regain own

economic competence, not just fret about Europe

English Local Elections 2013

Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher The Elections Centre Plymouth University

By-election model since 2010 general election

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

Conservative polls & by-elections

Labour polls & by-elections

Liberal Democrat polls & by-elections

Other parties polls & by-elections

National equivalent vote 2000-12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Con 38 31 34 35 37 31 39 40 43 35 35 38 33 Lab 30 39 33 30 26 34 26 26 24 22 28 37 39 LD 26 25 25 27 27 27 25 24 23 25 25 16 15 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 NEV% Source: Rallings/Thrasher, The Sunday Times

Forecast & Actual 2012

Forecast NEV 10 20 30 40 Con Lab LD Other % Con Lab LD Other Forecast 34 37 18 11 NEV 33 39 15 15

Councils up in 2013

Con Lab LD Other NOC Counties 26

• 1

Unitaries 3 1

• 3

…and Wales

• 1
• Total

29 1

• 1

4

Seats up in 2013*

*calculations include boundary changes

Con Lab LD Other Counties 1228 148 333 102 Unitaries 223 93 148 87 …and Wales 1 4

• 25

Total 1452 245 481 214

2392

Impact of boundary changes

Con Lab LD Ind/Oth 2008/9 actual 484 155 196 96 2008/9 notional 451 158 181 94 Sum

• 33

+3

• 15
• 2

Marginality of new seats unknown, but no overall change assumed

Contestation 2005-13

Year

Con Lab LD UKIP

2013 94.6% 90.7% 73.8% 72.9% 2009

(excl. Durham and Northumberland)

99.8% 85.9% 89.6% 24.7% 2005 97.0% 85.5% 89.2% 11.3%

Pattern of party competition 2013

Con 2nd Lab 2nd LD 2nd CON win 2008/9

• 280

770

LD win 2008/9

370 65

The UKIP factor

Year/Type Contested % Mean vote % Change % 2009 Locals 25 16.0

• 2011 Locals

18 11.6

• 2012 by-elections

57 11.3 +7 2013 by-elections 60 18.2 +12.2

2008/9 Outcomes

Con Lab LD UKIP 2008 NEV

43 24 23 n/a

2009 NEV

35 22 25 10

Source: Rallings/Thrasher, The Sunday Times

By-election forecast 2013

Con Lab LD UKIP Other Forecast 29 38 16 11 6 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 NEV %

Source: Rallings & Thrasher, April 19th 2013

Possible seat changes 2013

Con Lab LD UKIP Oth

• 310

+350

• 130

+40 +50

Possible council changes 2013

Derbyshire Lab ex Con Gloucestershire NOC ex Con Lancashire Lab ex Con Nottinghamshire Lab ex Con Staffordshire NOC (Lab) ex Con Warwickshire NOC ex Con

Slides will be sent out this afternoon!