The Local Elections Media Briefing Wednesday 24 th April The - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Local Elections Media Briefing Wednesday 24 th April

The Political Landscape John Curtice

The Structure • The Rise of UKIP • Tory troubles • Liberal Democrat losses (briefly) • Labour’s strength and weaknesses • Scotland (briefly)

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 Party Fortunes in This Parliament Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Con Jun-11 Aug-11 Lab Oct-11 Dec-11 Lib Dem Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13

The Rise and Impact of UKIP 50 45 43 43 43 42 42 39 41 41 41 41 41 40 39 40 40 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 29 31 30 30 25 20 15 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 0 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP

UKIP – Mode Matters (to a Degree) 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 12 11 11 10 Internet 9 8 8 Phone 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr

How the Popularity Stakes Differ Now 20 15 15 10 Con 5 5 3 Lab Lib Dem 0 UKIP Since 2009 Since 2005 -2 -5 -6 -8 -10 -12 -15

UKIP hurting the Tories most % 19 20 18 18 % 2010 vote defecting to UKIP 18 16 14 11 12 Con 10 10 8 8 Lab 8 6 Lib Dem 6 4 4 4 4 2 2 0 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov

Sources of UKIP Support 60 50 50 46 43 41 40 36 36 35 30 25 18 20 16 15 10 9 8 10 6 5 0 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov Con Lab Lib Dem Oth/UKIP/DNV

The Age Gap 20 19 18 18 16 15 14 % UKIP support 12 11 18-24 10 60/65+ 8 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 0 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov

The Gender Difference 18 17 16 14 12 12 12 12 % UKIP support 12 11 10 Men 8 8 Women 6 6 4 2 0 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov

The Social Profile 25 21 20 18 % UKIP Support 15 AB 13 13 12 C1 11 11 10 10 C2 10 8 7 7 DE 5 0 ComRes ICM MORI

The Initial Trigger? Trust Cameron/Osborne to run economy 35 31 30 30 30 29 27 25 26 25 26 25 25 24 23 20 15 10 5 0 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: ComRes

The UKIP-Tory Contrast on Trust % trust Cameron/Osborne 70 65 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 0 Con UKIP Source: ComRes

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 Jun-10 Source: Ipsos MORI Aug-10 Satisfaction with Cameron Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Satisfied Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dissatisfied Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13

Top Motivators in Eastleigh 60 55 50 40 Con 31 30 Lab 26 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 10 7 7 6 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 Immigration Local Council Europe Source: Lord Ashcroft

Best Parties Nationally % saying ‘Other’ best party All Voters UKIP Voters on Europe 17 78 Asylum/Immigration 16 78 Law & Order 7 49 Taxation 6 41 Economy in general 6 40 Unemployment 6 40 Education 6 37 NHS 5 37 Source: YouGov 24-25 Mar

Cameron’s (Short -Term?) Impact 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Leave EU Stay EU Source: YouGov

Lib Dems (still) losing to Labour 60 53 52 50 38 40 35 35 Con 32 Lab 30 25 24 23 LD 20 Other 16 14 13 13 11 9 10 6 0 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov

Sources of Lab Support 80 72 68 70 66 60 53 50 Con Lab 40 LD 30 22 22 Oth/DNV 17 20 13 13 11 11 11 7 10 5 3 3 0 ComRes ICM MORI YouGov

Labour Still to Convince on Economy Trust Miliband/Balls to run economy 30 25 24 22 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 15 15 10 5 0 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: ComRes

Or to Avoid the Blame Most to blame for spending cuts 40 38 37 36 36 36 35 35 34 30 29 29 27 26 26 26 25 24 20 15 10 5 0 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Coalition Labour Source: YouGov

Though 2010 Lib Dem voters… 70 66 60 54 50 40 Trust 30 Don't 19 20 16 10 0 Cameron/Osborne Miliband/Balls Source: ComRes

Miliband’s Rating 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied Dissatisfied Source: Scottish Social Attitudes

How Miliband Compares Net Satisfaction 30 17 20 16 10 3 0 Thatcher Foot Kinnock Blair Hague Cameron Miliband -10 -9 -20 -16 -30 -29 -40 -44 -50

Labour’s Boundary Bonus Lib Dem Share 10% 15% 20% 24% % lead Lab need for maj. New 2.9 3.9 4.2 4.7 Boundaries Old Boundaries 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.7 % lead Con need for maj New 2.7 3.1 5.1 7.1 Boundaries Old Boundaries 5.9 6.9 9.5 11.2

Scotland – Referendum Polls Summary 70 60 59 60 50 41 40 40 Yes 30 No 20 10 0 SG Question EC Question

Conclusions • There are currently two key battles in British (English) politics – Labour vs. Lib Dems – UKIP vs Conservatives • Labour are best placed for 2015 – but far from invulnerable if protesting Lib Dems think again • To overcome UKIP, Con need to regain own economic competence, not just fret about Europe

English Local Elections 2013 Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher The Elections Centre Plymouth University

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 By-election model since 2010 general election Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

Conservative polls & by-elections

Labour polls & by-elections

Liberal Democrat polls & by-elections

Other parties polls & by-elections

National equivalent vote 2000-12 50 45 40 35 NEV% 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Con 38 31 34 35 37 31 39 40 43 35 35 38 33 Lab 30 39 33 30 26 34 26 26 24 22 28 37 39 LD 26 25 25 27 27 27 25 24 23 25 25 16 15 Source: Rallings/Thrasher, The Sunday Times

Forecast & Actual 2012 40 30 % 20 10 NEV 0 Con Forecast Lab LD Other Con Lab LD Other Forecast 34 37 18 11 NEV 33 39 15 15

Councils up in 2013 Con Lab LD Other NOC Counties 26 - - - 1 Unitaries 3 1 - - 3 …and Wales - - - 1 - Total 29 1 - 1 4

Seats up in 2013* *calculations include boundary changes Con Lab LD Other Counties 1228 148 333 102 Unitaries 223 93 148 87 …and Wales 1 4 - 25 2392 Total 1452 245 481 214

Impact of boundary changes Con Lab LD Ind/Oth 2008/9 actual 484 155 196 96 2008/9 notional 451 158 181 94 Sum -33 +3 -15 -2 Marginality of new seats unknown, but no overall change assumed

Contestation 2005-13 Year Con Lab LD UKIP 2013 94.6% 90.7% 73.8% 72.9% 2009 99.8% 85.9% 89.6% 24.7% (excl. Durham and Northumberland) 2005 97.0% 85.5% 89.2% 11.3%

Pattern of party competition 2013 Con 2nd Lab 2nd LD 2nd - 280 770 CON win 2008/9 370 65 - LD win 2008/9

The UKIP factor Year/Type Contested Mean vote % Change % % 2009 Locals 25 16.0 - 2011 Locals 18 11.6 - 2012 by-elections 57 11.3 +7 2013 by-elections 60 18.2 +12.2

2008/9 Outcomes Con Lab LD UKIP 43 24 23 n/a 2008 NEV 35 22 25 10 2009 NEV Source: Rallings/Thrasher, The Sunday Times

By-election forecast 2013 40 35 30 25 NEV % 20 15 10 5 0 Con Lab LD UKIP Other Forecast 29 38 16 11 6 Source: Rallings & Thrasher, April 19 th 2013

Possible seat changes 2013 Con Lab LD UKIP Oth -310 +350 -130 +40 +50

Possible council changes 2013 Derbyshire Lab ex Con Gloucestershire NOC ex Con Lancashire Lab ex Con Nottinghamshire Lab ex Con Staffordshire NOC (Lab) ex Con Warwickshire NOC ex Con

Slides will be sent out this afternoon!