Model based decision support (and the joy of interactive modeling) Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares
• About Modeling • Interactive and together • The instrument • Why does it work?
Modeling “I don’t need models to make a desicion in 10 seconds” “and nature is unpredictable”
Modeling 𝜐 𝑥𝑗𝑜𝑒 𝑞 𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑢 + 𝑣 𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑡 = −𝐼 𝜖𝜂 𝜖𝑡 − 𝑑 𝑔 𝒗 𝑣 + 𝜓 𝜍 “But models may lead to better 𝑅 = 𝑣𝐵 decisions” 𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑢 = −𝐼 𝜖𝜂 𝜖𝑡 − 𝑑 𝑔 𝒗 𝑣 𝑅 = 𝑣𝐵 “therefore we make nature as predictable as possible”
Start a flood and drop a storm – P.m. Film met bui en overstroming
Interactive • Use the best possible hydraulic calculations • Make the model together (in the final stage…) • Joint fact finding
Speed and / or accuracy
Speed and accuracy Casulli 2009, Casulli&Stelling 2011
Devil in the details
Together
People of Breukelen
Why does it work? • Level of modeling detail is sufficient • Visualization techniques appropriate • People can be convinced rationally • Bad ideas are easily rejected • You built public support ‘on the fly’
Better, not easier… • Decision maker confronted with full complexity of water system analysis
The joy of interactive modeling • Decision maker in control – Takes important modeling decisions (affect the outcome) – Is confronted with the consequences of policy choices and principles (i.e. every area self sufficient) – Is aware of other promising solutions (measures) and their impact • Uses the modeling process to built public support
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