the joy of interactive modeling) Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

the joy of interactive modeling
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the joy of interactive modeling) Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Model based decision support (and the joy of interactive modeling) Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares About Modeling Interactive and together The instrument Why does it work? Modeling I dont need models to make a desicion in


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Model based decision support (and the joy of interactive modeling)

Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares

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  • About Modeling
  • Interactive and together
  • The instrument
  • Why does it work?
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Modeling

“I don’t need models to make a desicion in 10 seconds” “and nature is unpredictable”

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Modeling

𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑢 + 𝑣 𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑡 = −𝑕𝐼 𝜖𝜂 𝜖𝑡 − 𝑑𝑔 𝒗 𝑣 + 𝜓 𝜐𝑥𝑗𝑜𝑒𝑞 𝜍 𝑅 = 𝑣𝐵 𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑢 = −𝑕𝐼 𝜖𝜂 𝜖𝑡 − 𝑑𝑔 𝒗 𝑣 𝑅 = 𝑣𝐵 “But models may lead to better decisions” “therefore we make nature as predictable as possible”

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Start a flood and drop a storm

– P.m. Film met bui en overstroming

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Interactive

  • Use the best possible hydraulic calculations
  • Make the model together (in the final stage…)
  • Joint fact finding
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Speed and / or accuracy

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Speed and accuracy

Casulli 2009, Casulli&Stelling 2011

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Devil in the details

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Together

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People of Breukelen

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Why does it work?

  • Level of modeling detail is sufficient
  • Visualization techniques appropriate
  • People can be convinced rationally
  • Bad ideas are easily rejected
  • You built public support ‘on the fly’
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Better, not easier…

  • Decision maker confronted with full

complexity of water system analysis

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The joy of interactive modeling

  • Decision maker in control

– Takes important modeling decisions (affect the

  • utcome)

– Is confronted with the consequences of policy choices and principles (i.e. every area self sufficient) – Is aware of other promising solutions (measures) and their impact

  • Uses the modeling process to built public

support