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Model based decision support (and the joy of interactive modeling)
Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares
- About Modeling
- Interactive and together
- The instrument
- Why does it work?
the joy of interactive modeling) Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
the joy of interactive modeling) Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Model based decision support (and the joy of interactive modeling) Dr Elgard van Leeuwen Deltares About Modeling Interactive and together The instrument Why does it work? Modeling I dont need models to make a desicion in
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Modeling
“I don’t need models to make a desicion in 10 seconds” “and nature is unpredictable”
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Modeling
𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑢 + 𝑣 𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑡 = −𝐼 𝜖𝜂 𝜖𝑡 − 𝑑𝑔 𝒗 𝑣 + 𝜓 𝜐𝑥𝑗𝑜𝑒𝑞 𝜍 𝑅 = 𝑣𝐵 𝜖𝑣 𝜖𝑢 = −𝐼 𝜖𝜂 𝜖𝑡 − 𝑑𝑔 𝒗 𝑣 𝑅 = 𝑣𝐵 “But models may lead to better decisions” “therefore we make nature as predictable as possible”
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Start a flood and drop a storm
– P.m. Film met bui en overstroming
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Interactive
- Use the best possible hydraulic calculations
- Make the model together (in the final stage…)
- Joint fact finding
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Speed and / or accuracy
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Speed and accuracy
Casulli 2009, Casulli&Stelling 2011
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Devil in the details
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Together
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People of Breukelen
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Why does it work?
- Level of modeling detail is sufficient
- Visualization techniques appropriate
- People can be convinced rationally
- Bad ideas are easily rejected
- You built public support ‘on the fly’
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Better, not easier…
- Decision maker confronted with full
complexity of water system analysis
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The joy of interactive modeling
- Decision maker in control
– Takes important modeling decisions (affect the
- utcome)
– Is confronted with the consequences of policy choices and principles (i.e. every area self sufficient) – Is aware of other promising solutions (measures) and their impact
- Uses the modeling process to built public