[PPT] - THE INFLUENCE OF MICROPHYSICS PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECASTS OF PowerPoint Presentation

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THE INFLUENCE OF MICROPHYSICS PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECASTS OF DOWNSTREAM WAVINESS

Jessica R. Taheri Jonathan E. Martin University of Wisconsin - Madison

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Motivation

Diabatic processes affect Rossby wave structure

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Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov

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Motivation

Diabatic processes affect Rossby wave structure
Affects on mesoscale weather and synoptic pattern

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Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov

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Motivation

Diabatic processes affect Rossby wave structure
Affects on mesoscale weather and synoptic pattern
Model microphysics packages affect forecasts

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Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov

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Research Question

Does the complexity of a microphysics package in a

model significantly alter the waviness forecast?

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Research Question

Does the complexity of a microphysics package in a

model significantly alter the waviness forecast?

Run the WRF using 3 different microphysics packages

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Research Question

Does the complexity of a microphysics package in a

model significantly alter the waviness forecast?

Run the WRF using 3 different microphysics packages
Calculate the sinuosity of each packages 200 hPa height forecast

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Methods: The WRF

Specifics:
Version 3.8 of the WRF
80 x 80 km resolution
Initialized at 0000 UTC, out 120 hours
Runs 3 times, one for each MP package

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Methods: The WRF

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Kessler Scheme

Warm rain
No ice

Source: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2010/presentations/Lectures/Microphysics10.pdf

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Methods: The WRF

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Kessler Scheme

Warm rain
No ice

3-Class Package

Ice processes

below O˚C

Source: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2010/presentations/Lectures/Microphysics10.pdf

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Methods: The WRF

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Kessler Scheme

Warm rain
No ice

3-Class Package

Ice processes

below O˚C Ferrier Scheme

Water, rain, ice,

super-cooled liquid and ice melt

Source: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2010/presentations/Lectures/Microphysics10.pdf

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Methods: Sinuosity

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Ganges River, India

Source: Jon Martin, Cyclone Workshop 2015 Presentation

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Methods: Sinuosity

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Ganges River, India

Source: Jon Martin, Cyclone Workshop 2015 Presentation

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Methods: Sinuosity

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Source: Jon Martin, Cyclone Workshop 2015 Presentation

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Methods: Sinuosity

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Source: Jon Martin, Cyclone Workshop 2015 Presentation

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Methods: Sinuosity

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Source: Jon Martin, Cyclone Workshop 2015 Presentation

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Methods: Sinuosity

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Source: Jon Martin, Cyclone Workshop 2015 Presentation

Equivalent latitude Actual area

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Methods: Sinuosity

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Source: Jon Martin, Cyclone Workshop 2015 Presentation

SIN = actual length

equivalent latitude

SIN = 1.2719

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Case Study

Heavy rainfall event in California
7-9 January 2017

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Source: NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Facebook Page

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Case Study

Heavy rainfall event in California
7-9 January 2017
Atmospheric River
Landfall 1200 UTC on 7 Jan
Exited 1200 UTC on 9 Jan

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Source: NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Facebook Page Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov

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Case Study

Heavy rainfall event in California
7-9 January 2017
Atmospheric River
Landfall 1200 UTC on 7 Jan
Exited 1200 UTC on 9 Jan

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Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov

WRF initialized at 0000 UTC on

5 Jan

River event during mid-range

forecast, 48-96 hours

Source: NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Facebook Page

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Case Study

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1mp, 3mp, 5mp Valid 2017-01-06 00z

24 hr forecast

Precipitable Water (mm) for 3 MP Package

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Case Study

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1mp, 3mp, 5mp Valid 2017-01-08 00z

72 hr forecast

Precipitable Water (mm) for 3 MP Package

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Case Study

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1mp, 3mp, 5mp Valid 2017-01-10 00z

120 hr forecast

Precipitable Water (mm) for 3 MP Package

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Case Study

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Valid 2017-01-10 00z

Heights 11250m-12150m by 180m

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Case Study

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Aggregate Sinuosity

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Case Study

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Aggregate Sinuosity

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Case Study

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Aggregate Sinuosity

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Case Study

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Aggregate Sinuosity

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Conclusions and Future Work

Regional waviness appears sensitive to microphysics

packages

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Conclusions and Future Work

Regional waviness appears sensitive to microphysics

packages

Expand to the entire Northern Hemisphere

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Conclusions and Future Work

Regional waviness appears sensitive to microphysics

packages

Expand to the entire Northern Hemisphere
Which phenomena have the largest downstream impacts
n the waviness differences?
Atmospheric Rivers
Strong cyclogenesis
Warm Conveyor Belts

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Conclusions and Future Work

Regional waviness appears sensitive to microphysics

packages

Expand to the entire Northern Hemisphere
Which phenomena have the largest downstream impacts
n the waviness differences?
Atmospheric Rivers
Strong cyclogenesis
Warm Conveyor Belts
Begin looking at specific cases

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Acknowledgements

Dr. Jonathan Martin, Advisor
Dr. Michael Morgan
Martin and Morgan research groups

This research is support by NSF grant no. AGS-1443325

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Thank you!

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11790m

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Cumulus Scheme 1

Kain-Fritsch (KF)
Includes shallow convection
Low-level vertical motion in trigger function
CAPE removal time scale closure
Mass flux type with updrafts and downdrafts, entrainment and

detrainment

Includes cloud, rain , ice and snow detrainment
Clouds persist over convective time scale
Used in MM5 and Eta/NAM ensemble
Comparing all the packages, KF seems to be a good

middle ground: 12 hour forecast above comparing

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Effects of changing MP

Source: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2010/presentations/Lectures/Microphysics10.pdf

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Case Study

Floodingevent in California
January 7-9, 2017

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Boundaries for Sinuosity

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