The Great Crime Spike of 2016 What Does It Tell Us? Wesley G. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Great Crime Spike of 2016 What Does It Tell Us?

Wesley G. Skogan Institute for Policy Research Northwestern University

Al Capone Era

Trends in Murder 2010-Latest

Jan 2010 July 2010 Jan 2011 July 2011 Jan 2012 Julu 2012 Jan 2013 July 2013 Jan 2014 July 2014 Jan 2015 July 2015 Jan 2016 July 2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017

number

20 40 60 80 100

monthly

Trends in Shootings

Jan 2010 July 2010 Jan 2011 July 2011 Jan 2012 Julu 2012 Jan 2013 July 2013 Jan 2014 July 2014 Jan 2015 July 2015 Jan 2016 July 2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017

number

100 200 300 400

monthly

persons wounded or killed

2016 2017 2017 2016

360/month 95/month

+ 42% + 43%

burglary & auto theft

Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017

number

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 monthly

burglary auto theft

2016

• 1. Violent Crime Spiked

• 2. The Spike Is Gun Violence

Gun and Non-gun Murders 2010-Latest

J a n 2 1 J u l y 2 1 J a n 2 1 1 J u l y 2 1 1 J a n 2 1 2 J u l y 2 1 J a n 2 1 3 J u l y 2 1 3 J a n 2 1 4 J u l y 2 1 4 J a n 2 1 5 J u l y 2 1 5 J a n 2 1 6 J u l y 2 1 6 J a n 2 1 7 J u l y 2 1 7

number per month

20 40 60 80

gun non-gun

• 2. The Spike Is Gun Violence

Plus (not shown) modest increases in weapon caliber and percent of shootings that are fatal.

Percent of Shootings Concentrated in Top 5% and 10% of Areas

2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7

percent

10 20 30 40 50 60

top 10%

top 5%

2,173 Chicago block groups

50% of all shootings in 2016

Austin Humboldt Pk East Garfield Pk West Garfield Pk

North Lawndale South Lawndale New City Englewood

• Gr. Grand Crossing

Roseland West Pullman Riverdale

• 3. Gun Crime Is Extremely Concentrated

“Five neighborhoods in Chicago explain 10 percent

• f the national increase in homicide rates.”
• - Brennan Center

108 groups 216 groups

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

rate per 1,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

black latino diverse white MurderTrend by predominant race of community

1992 2016

• 4. Trends Driven by Conditions in the African American Community

• 5. We’re Not Catching Anybody and They Are The Spike

EDITORIAL: In Chicago, people get away with murder.

• - Chicago Tribune, 2016

Solving Murders Since 2010

Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017

number per month

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

not solved solved

Solving Shootings Since 2010

Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017

number per month

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

not solved solved

Some Implications of Not Solving Crimes

The standard model of policing has collapsed

• Drive there fast and investigate à arrest, not working

Deterrence disappearing

• Certainly individual deterrence; probably general deterrence

You have to look out for yourself on the street; the cops can’t do it à Carry a gun – probably most gun carrying is defensive à More quickly resort to preemptive violence & retaliatory vengeance Not knowing “whodunit” makes it hard to discern “whydunnit”

• Makes it a murder mystery
• This is especially true of a spike, which by its nature is a mystery

Incident factors

• Location, time of day/night – visibility
• Weapon type; weapon recovered/ballistics
• Drug involvement = harder to solve

Victim factors

• Relationship to offender: domestics, gangs, disputes
• Victim cooperation; fear retaliation; ability of police to keep them safe
• Experience with police; cynicism about justice system
• Involvement in criminality

Community factors

• “Code of the street” – mind own business; don’t snitch; watch own back; resignation
• Neighborhood social cohesion, collective efficacy, cooperation, stability, homogeneity
• Cooperation by witnesses & bystanders, family members; fear of retaliation
• Related to legitimacy crisis and breakdown in trust

Law enforcement factors (most sure about these)

• Quality & quantity of investigations, lab and ballistics work
• Case management; triage procedures
• Staffing level - to interview, cultivate informants, check records, tie cases together
• Actions of first responders – secure the scene, identify bystanders, engage families and friends
• A “heater” case? – motivating detectives, resources assigned

Research on Solvability

It was a “Heck of a Spike.”

• Spike broadly confined to gun violence and related offenses
• Spike was general, but large numbers in African American areas
• Events there drove city-wide spike

Violence very concentrated; stable over 25 years.

• Spike was in the usual areas of concentration

These are the leverage points Somebody is getting away with murder.

• Most violent crime going unsolved
• Spike was driven by unsolved gun crime
• Implications of unsolved violence troublesome

In Summary

Spike’s Future?

shooting spikes 2016 & 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

number per month

100 200 300 400

2016 2017

• Spike may be going away!
• But that would not be “problem solved”