The extradition bill, from Jan 2019 The need HK needs extradition - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hong Kong, China, pop. 7.3m

• Rich (per capita GDP US$54,000 PPP in 2016)
• Safe (lowest murder rate in the world [0.2 per 100,000 pop])
• Clean (corruption free; air, water…)
• Educated (96% literate, >15yrs; P4 ranked 2nd in math; 5th in science

globally; 2-3 universities ranked in top 50 globally)

• Healthy (women are the longest lived in the world)
• Employed (unemployment rate 2.8%)
• Financed (government budget surpluses virtually every year)
• Ruled (‘rule of law’; Bill of Rights)

The extradition bill, from Jan 2019

• The need
• HK needs extradition arrangements to mainland, Macau, Taiwan
• Process
• Government: ‘technical amendment’
• Little consultation even with key government allies
• Reaction
• Opposition from key government allies, local and foreign business, legal

bodies, human rights groups, Taiwan

• Government: modest amendments and pushed the bill forward
• Exclude: ‘white collar’ crime; political crimes; any crime with less than 7 years sentence
• Opinion polls: 70% + opposed

The situation

• Unreformed colonial-era political institutions meet energized civil

society demanding more participation in public affairs

• Colonial Hong Kong became HKSAR of China in 1997
• No revolution
• No decolonialization
• Instead: the colonial ‘through train’….

Landscape in HK, I

• Economic marginalization
• HK’s declining role in China’s economy
• HK’s position
• China’s constitution
• Basic Law: ‘one country, two systems’ and civil liberties – freedom of speech,

association, media, internet, etc. (while Chinese Communist Party attacks liberalism)

• CE accountable to central gov’t & HKSAR
• ‘independent’ judiciary
• CCP’s position in HK (indirect rule)
• Political powerlessness
• Appointed government
• Legislative Council, split constituencies (Sep 2020 next elections)
• 18 District Councils (Nov 24, 2019 next elections)

Total Members: 70 Geographical constituencies: 35 Functional constituencies: 35 (e.g., banking, commerce, professions, etc.)

Legislative Council political composition, 2016

Geographic Functional District Council Total Pro-Establishment 16 22 2 40 Pan Dem 13 7 3 23 Localist 6 6 Independent 1 TOTAL 35 35 70 6 Legco members were removed for misconduct: 4 localists Geo; 1 Pan-Dem Geo; 1 Pan-Dem FC In by-elections Pro-estab won 3 seats; Pan-Dems 2 seats

Landscape in HK, II

• Civil society
• Energized; expectant; organized; resourced

HK’s colonial-era institutions

• Economy
• Education
• Civil service
• Political institutions

Colonial-era economy: staggering inequality

• Welfare state-type public services (public health, public housing,

education)

• Low direct taxation (no sales, inheritance, capital gains taxes)
• Shortfall made up by land sales (Gov’t owns all the land)
• Astronomical housing prices
• US$21,000/sqm for <40sqm
• Gini coefficient: .48-.53

Our Tycoons: Richest 6 own assets equivalent to 42% of HK’s GDP

‘Conglomerates under the control

• f the abovementioned families

have a stranglehold on some of HK’s economic arteries, namely property, utilities, public bus services and food retail. The rise to power of these economic lords

• wes a lot to a government that

adopts a laissez-faire approach when it so suits them and at the same time actively protects their interests.’ Source: Poon, p. 44.

Colonial-era education system

• NGOs, churches run 93% of schools
• Elite education in English language
• Generally, non-political curriculum (?)
• Mainland seen as ‘overseas’, ‘foreign’, other

Private, mostly church-run schools

• Teach universal values (human rights, etc.)
• Liberal studies
• Do not teach mainland-style national, ‘patriotic’ education
• Produce HK’s senior civil servants
• Results: Successful, popular
• Test scores; university admissions

Colonial-era civil service

• Divide between senior & junior civil servants
• Senior
• Recruited from local elite schools
• Perceive their role as guardians/trustees, not agents
• Hold most political positions in government
• Receive pensions
• Junior
• Perceive their role as serving HK, not the CE
• No pensions, more mobile

Unreformed colonial-era political institutions

• Ambiguous accountability system
• Failed political reform (Occupy Movement, 2014)
• Participation: most are disenfranchised, powerless, (CE Lam: ‘No stake

in society…’)

• Don’t select CE
• Legco votes devalued by functional constituencies
• Elected representatives removed for misconduct

Question of violence…

Growing appetite for violence Among protesters, from June to July no. agreeing that violence was ‘understandable’ grew from 69% to 96% (Lingnan U polls)

Political institutions fail to accommodate demands of society

• Unreformed, colonial-era political institutions
• Disenfranchise most HKers
• Multiple leadership failures (politically inept; not accountable; serve business

elite)

• Society/protesters demand to participate
• Popular expectations
• Powerless, alienated

Public Opinion

• Mostly supports the protesters (Ming Pao 3/8/2019)
• Independent investigation (79%)
• Withdraw bill (73%)
• Withdraw charge of rioting for June 12 demonstration (59%)
• Carrie Lam step down (50%)
• Amnesty for protesters arrested (46%)

Beyond HK

• CCP’s need for stability on mainland
• Dangers of HK unrest spreading
• What is HK’s role in China?

Scenarios going forward

• Status quo
• United front work (统一战线工作), nationalism campaigns
• Policing (repression)
• Policing +
• Meet some demands of protesters
• HK Gov’t to take responsibility: Government/officials ‘reshuffled’
• Independent inquiry
• Political reform
• Battle for hearts and minds of HK people (mobilizing the united front)