The Dawn of Trump What it means for agriculture, trade and how we - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Dawn of Trump

What it means for agriculture, trade and how we conduct advocacy

Greatest Political Upset Since Lincoln

• 1. Effectively 77,759 votes in three states (WI/PA/MI) determined the

Presidency:

22,748 votes in WI, 0.7 of a point (3rd party candidates received: 188,330) 44,307 votes in PA, 0.7 of a point, (3rd party candidates received: 218,228) 10,704 votes in MI, 0.2 of a point (3rd party candidates received: 250,902 votes)

• 2. Outside of New York and California, Trump won by 3 million votes

Clinton won the popular vote by 2.8 million votes

• 3. Clinton aired 187 unique broadcast TV spots, Trump aired 40
• 4. Trump won 76% of counties with a Cracker Barrel and 22% with a Whole

Foods

• 5. Howard Co. IA > 20 pts. for Obama in 2012; >20 pts. for Trump in 2016

Cabinet Members

Rex Tillerson, State

Wilbur Ross, Commerce

Ryan Zinke, Interior Rick Perry, Energy

Jeff Sessions, Attorney General

James, Mattis, Defense

Betsy Devos, Education

Tom Price, HHS

John Kelly, Homeland Security Ben Carson, HUD Andrew Puzder, Labor

Elaine Chao, Transportation Steven Mnuchin, Treasury

Least Amount of Government Experience in Recent Years

Cabinet Members' Resume Experience H.W. Bush Clinton W. Bush Obama Trump

Government Experience 81% 81% 91% 91% 47% Military Experience 48% 48% 32% 9% 28% CEO 5% 14% 18% 0% 28% PhD 19% 24% 9% 23% 0%

What awaits the new Secretary of Agriculture?

Net Farm Income (-17%) 3rd Consecutive annual decline Agricultural exports lower in 2016 7% from 2015 total and well below 2014's record $152.3 billion Average farm household income (including off-farm income sources) $119,880 was about 51% than the average U.S. household income of $79,263.

Philosophical Realignment

• USDA Career Employees Must Now Adjust

1) Nutrition Promotion 2) Socioeconomic (organic, sustainable, young, beginner, local, urban agriculture, farmers markets) farm program promotion, 3) Biofuels and 4) Trade? 5) Decentralized decision making in cabinet and subcabinet?

Trade Policy: Where do we go from here?

• USTR demoted from first to third chair in the trade policy symphony

Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce Peter Navarro, Assistant to the President for Manufacturing and Trade Robert Lighthizer, Ambassador, USTR

• TPP: Odds don’t improve until after 2018 mid-terms
• Can U.S./Japan foster closer bilateral economic relationship?
• NAFTA: Renovation or Repairs?
• China: US Filed Complaint Against Chinese Subsidies for Rice, Wheat, Corn
• Expect Higher Visibility for US ITC Anti-Dumping/Countervailing Duty Investigations

How Does The Next Farm Bill Begin To Take Shape?

• Corn, Peanuts - - - In The Money

6.1 billion pounds of peanuts in 2016

• Cotton, Dairy --- Outside Looking In
• Farm Bill Interest Continues To Diversify/Intensify

Farms and Free Enterprise: Heritage Foundation Report

• Urban Agriculture Act of 2016 (Debbie Stabenow)

2015 ARC/PLC Payments $7.7 billion (Nov)

Corn $4.1 billion 53% of all payments Soybeans $1.1 billion 14% of all payments Wheat $1.1 billion 14% of all payments RiceLG $ 502.3 million 6% of all payments RiceM $19.8 million 0.2% of all payments Peanuts (PLC) $504 million 6% of all payments

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”– George Santayana

• June 20, 2013, Agricultural Act of (2014) fails 234-195
• Lost 62 Republicans
• Responsibility to pass bill falls first on Chairman of the Committee
• Five House Chairman Voted Against Including then Budget Chairman

Paul Ryan

What 2 Watch 4

• House Chairman Mike Conaway: Prime-Time Performer
• Extensive Subcommittee Work
• Proposals From Entire House G.O.P
• 7 of 10 Senate Ag Committee Democrats Up in 2018

(NY, PA, OH, IN, MI, MN, ND) Dems Defending 25 GOP Defending 8

What We Can Do

• Meet with Key Cabinet Officials As Soon As Possible

Water The Relationship Tree

• Doug LaMalfa/Jimmy Panetta
• Think of the Whole House Not Just One Room

A California Farm Bill Proposal (53 Member Voting Block) Size Matters: Strength of CRC Proposals*/USA Rice