The Dawn of Trump What it means for agriculture, trade and how we conduct advocacy
Greatest Political Upset Since Lincoln 1. Effectively 77,759 votes in three states (WI/PA/MI) determined the Presidency: 22,748 votes in WI, 0.7 of a point (3rd party candidates received: 188,330 ) 44,307 votes in PA, 0.7 of a point, (3rd party candidates received: 218,228) 10,704 votes in MI, 0.2 of a point (3rd party candidates received: 250,902 votes) 2. Outside of New York and California, Trump won by 3 million votes Clinton won the popular vote by 2.8 million votes 3. Clinton aired 187 unique broadcast TV spots, Trump aired 40 4. Trump won 76% of counties with a Cracker Barrel and 22% with a Whole Foods 5. Howard Co. IA > 20 pts. for Obama in 2012; >20 pts. for Trump in 2016
Cabinet Members Rex Tillerson, State Ryan Zinke, Interior Jeff Sessions, Attorney General James, Mattis, Defense Ben Carson, HUD Betsy Devos, Education Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Tom Price, HHS Andrew Puzder, Labor Wilbur Ross, Commerce Elaine Chao, Transportation John Kelly, Homeland Security Rick Perry, Energy
Least Amount of Government Experience in Recent Years Cabinet Members' H.W. Clinton W. Bush Obama Trump Resume Experience Bush Government 81% 81% 91% 91% 47% Experience Military Experience 48% 48% 32% 9% 28% CEO 5% 14% 18% 0% 28% PhD 19% 24% 9% 23% 0%
What awaits the new Secretary of Agriculture? Net Farm Income (-17%) 3 rd Consecutive annual decline Agricultural exports lower in 2016 7% from 2015 total and well below 2014's record $152.3 billion Average farm household income (including off-farm income sources) $119,880 was about 51% than the average U.S. household income of $79,263.
Philosophical Realignment • USDA Career Employees Must Now Adjust 1) Nutrition Promotion 2) Socioeconomic (organic, sustainable, young, beginner, local, urban agriculture, farmers markets) farm program promotion, 3) Biofuels and 4) Trade? 5) Decentralized decision making in cabinet and subcabinet?
Trade Policy: Where do we go from here? • USTR demoted from first to third chair in the trade policy symphony Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce Peter Navarro, Assistant to the President for Manufacturing and Trade Robert Lighthizer, Ambassador, USTR • TPP: Odds don’t improve until after 2018 mid-terms -Can U.S./Japan foster closer bilateral economic relationship? • NAFTA: Renovation or Repairs? • China: US Filed Complaint Against Chinese Subsidies for Rice, Wheat, Corn • Expect Higher Visibility for US ITC Anti-Dumping/Countervailing Duty Investigations
How Does The Next Farm Bill Begin To Take Shape? • Corn, Peanuts - - - In The Money 6.1 billion pounds of peanuts in 2016 • Cotton, Dairy --- Outside Looking In • Farm Bill Interest Continues To Diversify/Intensify Farms and Free Enterprise: Heritage Foundation Report • Urban Agriculture Act of 2016 (Debbie Stabenow)
2015 ARC/PLC Payments $7.7 billion (Nov) Corn $4.1 billion 53% of all payments Soybeans $1.1 billion 14% of all payments Wheat $1.1 billion 14% of all payments RiceLG $ 502.3 million 6% of all payments RiceM $19.8 million 0.2% of all payments Peanuts (PLC) $504 million 6% of all payments
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”– George Santayana • June 20, 2013, Agricultural Act of (2014) fails 234-195 • Lost 62 Republicans • Responsibility to pass bill falls first on Chairman of the Committee • Five House Chairman Voted Against Including then Budget Chairman Paul Ryan
What 2 Watch 4 • House Chairman Mike Conaway: Prime-Time Performer • Extensive Subcommittee Work • Proposals From Entire House G.O.P • 7 of 10 Senate Ag Committee Democrats Up in 2018 (NY, PA, OH, IN, MI, MN, ND) Dems Defending 25 GOP Defending 8
What We Can Do • Meet with Key Cabinet Officials As Soon As Possible Water The Relationship Tree • Doug LaMalfa/Jimmy Panetta • Think of the Whole House Not Just One Room A California Farm Bill Proposal (53 Member Voting Block) Size Matters: Strength of CRC Proposals*/USA Rice
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